Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rock Hall, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:44PM Monday December 9, 2019 12:44 PM EST (17:44 UTC) Moonrise 3:19PMMoonset 4:21AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 938 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm est this evening through late tonight...
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog late this morning. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Wed night..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely through the night.
ANZ500 938 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure over the upper midwest will move into the great lakes this afternoon, then move into southeastern canada tonight. This low will drag its trailing cold front through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will follow Wednesday night through Thursday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Tuesday evening into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rock Hall, MD
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location: 39.15, -76.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 091445 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 945 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will develop over the central United States and lift into the Great Lakes today. A warm front developing east of this area of low pressure over the Carolinas is expected to lift northward across the Mid-Atlantic today. The aforementioned low will drag its trailing cold front through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong Arctic high pressure will build from the Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night through Thursday night, then shift offshore of New England as low pressure develops over and approaches from the southeastern United States.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A steady rain has developed over much of the area, just about to the I-95 corridor as of 9:30AM. This rain will continue to overspread the rest of the Mid-Atlantic through midday (except perhaps a touch less widespread/steady over southern Maryland, further from upper forcing).

As a lead shortwave impulse in the 700-500 hPa layer pushes northeast by nightfall, the steadier rain will come to an end. The warm front currently positioned to our south should subsequently move northward, with rain becoming more spotty and showery in nature through tonight.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Surface cold front will move across our area on Tuesday and showers will redevelop into Tuesday night. The front should be east of our area by Tuesday evening but the upper jet dynamics and a mid level energy ahead of a trough will allow for anafrontal precipitation. Cold and dry air advection behind the front will have an impact on the p-type on Tuesday night. A changeover from rain to snow could occur Tuesday night, assuming there is still enough moisture in the column.

If things come together, the most likely areas for snow accumulations are over higher elevation. Highest amounts are about 5 inches at the ridgetops, with up to 3 inches elsewhere (see winter weather website). This of course will depend if cold air moves in fast enough, so there is still some uncertainty with this.

Precipitation will end on Wednesday as Arctic high pressure builds in from the west on Wednesday into the night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Guidance is in relatively good agreement, better than last night, regarding the end of week and weekend. High pressure likely dominates on Thursday, with chilly temperatures but dry conditions. By Friday, low pressure developing near the Gulf coast may start to spread precipitation into the region, but this is more likely Friday night. With the chilly air mass in place, some mixed precipitation, perhaps even freezing rain, will be possible mainly west of the Blue Ridge. By Saturday, the low lifts northward to our west, likely scouring out the cold air and bringing temperatures back above normal across much of the area, though rain showers will continue. As low pressure then moves further away to the north and east by Sunday, drier weather should return, but with little cold air behind the system, temperatures look more likely to remain on the plus side of normal.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Fog near DCA/BWI/MTN lifting as of 15Z, but will soon be followed by vsby reductions in rain (this will affect all terminals today, steadiest north of CHO). CIGs look IFR/LIFR much of today as well with strong low level moist advection just above a surface temperature inversion. LLWS is likely until 00-03Z this evening as LLJ strengthens to 40+ kts at 2 kft. Surface winds out of the south may gust to 20 kts this evening.

A lull in precipitation is expected tonight, but it may remain sub-VFR through much of the night (though conditions may lift after midnight as the warm front lifts north, am skeptical as to just how quickly/if conditions return to VFR). Precipitation will return again Tuesday, most likely after 15Z as a cold front moves through with sub-VFR conditions highly likely during this time. Precipitation may linger through early Wednesday, and a changeover to snow on Tuesday night is expected, with any appreciable accums most likely for the MRB terminal.

High pressure will build in Wednesday, allowing for VFR conditions to return by around or shortly after midday. NW winds will increase and become gusty.

VFR conditions expected Thursday. However, uncertainty exists Friday as some guidance indicates a low pressure may try to lift northward into the region, bringing potential for mixed precipitation.

MARINE. SCA this afternoon for mid Chesapeake Bay/lower tidal Potomac, expanding northward tonight into tomorrow as low level stability decreases and winds mix down a little more readily. After a potential lull Tuesday, confidence is high on winds increasing out of the northwest behind the front Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Winds likely drop below SCA levels by Thursday as high pressure builds in. Friday, some uncertainty exists as low pressure may lift northward into the region.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ530>532-538>540-542. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ534-537-543. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ533-541.

SYNOPSIS . RCM NEAR TERM . IMR/DHOF SHORT TERM . IMR LONG TERM . RCM AVIATION . IMR/RCM/DHOF MARINE . IMR/RCM/DHOF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 7 mi68 min S 4.1 G 8 46°F 45°F1017.6 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 11 mi56 min S 5.1 G 5.1 46°F 1017.1 hPa
CPVM2 11 mi62 min 46°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 13 mi56 min 47°F 1016.8 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 14 mi38 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 45°F 45°F1017.5 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 15 mi68 min S 1.9 G 4.1 45°F 45°F1016.7 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 18 mi44 min SSE 12 G 13 46°F 45°F1018.1 hPa (-1.8)46°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi134 min SSE 4.1 45°F 1018 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 39 mi68 min SSW 4.1 G 6 47°F 42°F1017.3 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 40 mi56 min S 8 G 9.9 45°F 44°F1017.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 41 mi74 min S 5.8 G 5.8 46°F 1018.8 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi68 min S 2.9 G 8 49°F 44°F1017.4 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD12 mi49 minS 61.50 miRain Fog/Mist46°F0°F%1017.3 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD14 mi1.8 hrsN 00.50 miHeavy Rain Fog45°F44°F100%1018.6 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD14 mi50 minS 63.00 miRain Fog/Mist47°F45°F93%1017.4 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD16 mi50 minno data mi47°F46°F97%1016.8 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD17 mi50 minS 32.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist47°F45°F93%1016.7 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD23 mi50 minSSW 33.00 miOvercast45°F44°F100%1017.6 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD24 mi3 hrsN 00.50 miLight Drizzle Fog45°F44°F100%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KW29

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S9S6CalmCalmSE3SE4SE5SE5S4CalmE3SE6CalmSE4SE4CalmW6CalmCalmSE3SW5S7S6
1 day agoN9N7N6NE3N3CalmCalmN5Calm----Calm--CalmE5E4------CalmSE6SE6S8SE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay), Maryland
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Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay)
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:53 AM EST     5.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:21 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:15 AM EST     3.95 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:58 PM EST     5.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:44 PM EST     4.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.54.74.85554.74.54.24444.24.54.85.15.35.45.35.254.74.64.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:45 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:10 AM EST     0.44 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:21 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:38 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:45 AM EST     -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:13 PM EST     1.08 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:44 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:59 PM EST     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.30.10.30.40.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.20.20.60.91.110.80.3-0.1-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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