Thursday, October1, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Rock Hall, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 6:49PM Thursday October 1, 2020 7:46 AM EDT (11:46 UTC) Moonrise 6:07PMMoonset 5:35AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 737 Am Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 am edt this morning...
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 737 Am Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will pass through late today through tonight. Canadian high pressure will build overhead for Friday and Saturday. Low pressure and its associated cold front will approach the waters Sunday before passing through Sunday night into Monday. A small craft advisory may be required overnight into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rock Hall, MD
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location: 39.15, -76.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 010758 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 358 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will pass through the area late today through tonight. Canadian high pressure will build overhead Friday through Saturday. Low pressure may impact the area late Sunday into Monday before high pressure returns for the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Current water vapor imagery shows a shortwave disturbance over the Upper Midwest embedded within a much larger trough over the eastern half of the CONUS and eastern Canada. As we move through the day, this shortwave will dig to our west into the Ohio Valley. As the shortwave digs to our west, synoptic scale forcing for ascent will be on the increase through the afternoon and evening hours. As this occurs, we'll become situated within the right entrance region of an upper-level jet streak, and a zone of low- level convergence (most noticeable at 850 hPa) will develop directly beneath the right entrance region, extending from CHO to up along the I-95 corridor. After, a mostly sunny start, clouds should begin to thicken, and by later in the day light rain is expected to break out along the aforementioned corridor of low- level convergence to the east of the Blue Ridge. This period of rain will last through much of the overnight hours, before a reinforcing cold front finally passes through and clears things out. Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s, and lows tonight will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. The shortwave disturbance that will impact the area today will progress off to our northeast tomorrow, placing us within a zone of subsidence in its wake. Other than a lingering shower in northeastern Maryland around daybreak, conditions tomorrow are expected to remain dry. Mostly sunny skies are forecast, along with highs in the mid- upper 60s. Skies will stay mostly clear tomorrow night as high pressure starts to work toward the area from the Ohio Valley. The gradient may weaken enough for sheltered valleys in the West Virginia panhandle to go calm. If the higher elevation valleys do go calm, some patchy frost can't be ruled out. Elsewhere, lows should be in the low to mid 40s, with temperatures holding near 50 in the urban centers and along the bay.

Saturday will feature similar conditions to Friday as high pressure moves overhead. Skies will be mostly sunny, winds will stay light, and highs will be in the mid 60s. With high pressure overhead and clear skies, patchy frost may be possible once again Saturday night in the mountain valleys to the west. Lows will run below normal for early October, with low to mid 40s common, and around 50 degrees in DC, Baltimore, and along the bay.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A potent shortwave and jetmax associated with the northern stream of the jet is expected to drop into the Plains and Midwest for Sunday, before building east Sunday night into Monday. Sunday will most likely start off dry, but showers may overspread the portions of the area later in the afternoon. The best chance for showers will be Sunday afternoon northwest of Interstate 95, closer to the to the approaching shortwave and jetmax.

As this system digs, it will cause a broad upper-level trough over the area to become higher in amplitude while switching from a positive tilt toward a neutral or negative tilt. Latest guidance has trended toward a solution that holds off on the strengthening of the upper-level trough (positive to negative tilt) long enough so that the coastal low will develop farther off to the north and east, having less of an impact on our area. Having that been said, the trough axis will be associated with a potent shortwave and jetmax, and this combined with the cold front and primary low associated with it will likely be enough to trigger showers across portions of the area, especially northern portions that will be closer to the stronger forcing for Sunday night into Monday.

High pressure will build overhead behind this system for later Monday into Tuesday, before moving offshore during the middle portion of next week. Another cold front may impact the area later Wednesday or Wednesday night.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. VFR conditions are expected today through Saturday. The only impactful weather at the terminals over the next few days will be a period of light rain late this afternoon through much of the overnight hours. This rain will push out of the area by daybreak Friday, giving way to dry conditions for Friday and Saturday.

An upper-level disturbance and a cold front will approach Sunday before passing through Sunday night into Monday. High pressure will most likely return later Monday or Monday night. VFR conditions are expected most of the time, but subVFR conditions are possible in showers that develop late Sunday into early Monday.

MARINE. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the remainder of the night. Winds should slacken a bit today, before picking up again later tonight in channeled northerly flow behind a reinforcing cold front. An additional SCA may be needed for tonight. Sub-SCA winds are expected for both Friday and Saturday.

A cold front will approach Sunday and it will pass through the waters Monday as coastal low pressure develops offshore and tracks to the northeast. An SCA for northwest winds behind the boundary may be needed Monday into Monday night.

EQUIPMENT. The KLWX (Sterling, VA) WSR-88D outage, which began on September 20, 2020, will continue and remain out of service until on or about October 16, 2020.

On Saturday, technicians from the NWS Radar Operations Center (ROC), based in Norman, Oklahoma, determined that a primary component for turning the radar antenna, the bull-gear, needs replacement. This repair will require 12,000 to 15,000 pounds of equipment and a six-person team from the ROC to restore the radar. At this time, the team anticipates repairs being completed on or about October 16, 2020.

During the downtime, adjacent supporting NWS radars include: Dover DE (KDOX), Mt. Holly NJ (KDIX), Pittsburgh PA (KPBZ), Charleston WV (KRLX), Blacksburg VA (KFCX), and Wakefield VA (KAKQ).

For a radar mosaic loop for the region:

https:/radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/northeast.php

Further updates about the situation will be issued as information becomes available. Thank you for your understanding during this extended outage.

Point of Contact:

Christopher Strong email: Christopher.Strong@noaa.gov office: 703-996-2223

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ530>534-537>543.

SYNOPSIS . BJL NEAR TERM . KJP SHORT TERM . KJP LONG TERM . BJL AVIATION . BJL/KJP MARINE . BJL/KJP EQUIPMENT . LWX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 7 mi46 min WSW 9.9 G 12 63°F 69°F1013.1 hPa (+1.1)
FSNM2 10 mi46 min W 4.1 G 6 58°F 1012.7 hPa (+1.3)
CPVM2 11 mi46 min 62°F 56°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 11 mi46 min WSW 4.1 G 4.1 59°F 1013 hPa (+1.3)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 13 mi46 min W 1 G 2.9 58°F 71°F1012.6 hPa (+1.3)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 15 mi46 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 58°F 73°F1012.5 hPa (+1.1)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 18 mi46 min SSW 6 G 7 60°F 71°F1014 hPa (+1.5)55°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi136 min SSE 1.9 1012 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 39 mi46 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 56°F 70°F1012.7 hPa (+0.8)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 40 mi46 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 59°F 70°F1013.6 hPa (+1.3)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 41 mi40 min W 16 G 18 62°F 70°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi46 min SW 1 G 1.9 59°F 69°F1013.2 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD12 mi51 minWSW 410.00 miFair61°F55°F83%1013.2 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD14 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair54°F53°F100%1013.2 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD14 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair57°F55°F93%1013.1 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD17 mi52 minW 410.00 miA Few Clouds55°F51°F87%1012.7 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD23 mi51 minN 05.00 miFair50°F50°F100%1013.9 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD24 mi1.8 hrsSW 310.00 miA Few Clouds56°F52°F90%1012.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KW29

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay), Maryland
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Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:11 AM EDT     4.67 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:04 AM EDT     5.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:38 PM EDT     4.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 06:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:30 PM EDT     5.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.84.74.74.95.25.45.65.75.75.55.354.84.74.74.855.35.65.75.75.65.45.1

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:39 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:41 AM EDT     0.79 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:41 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:48 AM EDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:52 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 06:03 PM EDT     0.90 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-0.6-0.30.10.50.70.80.60.3-0.1-0.5-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.40.10.50.80.90.80.50.1-0.3-0.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.