Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Olney, MD

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 8:00PM Monday August 19, 2019 4:22 PM EDT (20:22 UTC) Moonrise 9:20PMMoonset 9:03AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 137 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
This afternoon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely through the night. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 137 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over the atlantic will deliver a light southerly flow over the region through Tuesday. A cold front will approach the waters Wednesday into Thursday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olney, MD
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location: 39.15, -77.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 191832
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
232 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis Hot and humid conditions will persist through
Thursday with daily chances of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. A cold front will cross the area Thursday night
with canadian high pressure building in for the weekend,

Near term through tonight
A surface trof is noted along and east of i-95 with towering
cumulus and cumulus congestus developing in that area as seen
on goes-16 imagery. This is where convective development is most
likely to occur in the next hour or so. With better shear today
than past few days, expect a few more severe storms today with
damaging wind gusts and some hail the primary threats. Any
activity will likely try to organize into a line and move to the
east and exit the chesapeake bay this evening.

Very warm and muggy tonight with low temperatures in the upper
60s to mid 70s.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
Hot and humid conditions will persist through mid week until
cdfnt clears the fcst area late Thu or Thu night. Expect more
of the same with showers and thunderstorms each afternoon with
wed being the more active day with a shortwave-trough passing by
and more significant height falls. Fcst storm motions are not
expected to be particularly very fast, so storms may produce
heavy rainfall and isolated instances of flash flooding in
addition to damaging winds and hail. Heat indices may approach
the heat advisory criteria of 105f east of the blue ridge both
tue and wed.

Long term Thursday through Monday
On Thursday, a cold front will approach the area from the ohio
valley. This front will bring some much needed relief from the heat
into the weekend. On Thursday however, with the front coming through
in the afternoon, high temperatures probably still reach the upper
80s to low 90s. With dew points in the low 70s too, this will lead
to heat indices into the mid to upper 90s, with a few spots
approaching 100 in southern md central va. The cold front moving
into this environment will certainly result in some thunderstorms
across the region, as evident by likely pops Thursday afternoon.

Thunderstorms that do form along the front will have 1000-2000 j kg
of CAPE and around 30kts of deep layer shear to work with. This will
mean a threat for severe weather, with damaging winds and large hail
being the expected threats. A lot will depend on how quickly the
front moves through the area. Obviously, if the front comes through
earlier than anticipated, severe threat would be more limited. So,
will have to monitor over the coming days for tends in the speed of
the front.

Models are not very sure at all where the front GOES after Thursday.

The ECMWF hangs the front up near the forecast area on Friday, with
norther parts of the area likely being behind the front, and areas
farther south still being in warmer and more humid air. However, the
gfs pushes the front out to sea very quickly Thursday night into
Friday, resulting in a dry and cooler than average day area-wide.

Eps ensembles show some support of both solutions honestly, with the
mean hanging the front up in central va through Saturday.

Temperatures across the area will heavily depend on where that front
ends up on Friday, with some areas in likely barely in the low 80s,
and others closer to the upper 80s farther south. Carrying chance
pops through Friday at least, with best chances farther south. With
a stalled front over the area, and a warm and humid airmass to the
south, can't rule out an isolated flooding threat as well,
especially if storms train along the frontal boundary.

Rain chances decrease into Saturday, but could still see some in
southern areas. Even the ECMWF clears the front from the area by
Saturday afternoon, so expecting a dry afternoon at the very least.

But could not rule out a showers or storms, especially down south,
if the front is stubborn to leave. Temperatures on Saturday will be
in the low 80s, and with dew points in the low 60s, it will feel
much less humid.

By Sunday, model guidance all agrees that the front will be long
gone. Surface high pressure will be set up to our northeast. Dry
conditions expected Sunday, with highs into the mid 80s or so.

Again, low dew points will make it feel very comfortable out.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Sct showers t-storms expected today mainly eastern terminals,
and then all terminals tue-thu until cdfnt clears the area thu
night.

Thunderstorms are expected on Thursday afternoon, in association
with a passing cold front. These storms may produce strong winds and
some hail. Coverage seems to be pretty high, so all terminals face
the risk of restrictions during storms. Other than that,VFR
conditions are expected for the rest of the day.

More showers and storms possible on Friday, as the cold front could
hang up over the region, with the best chance of coverage near cho.

Could see some lower CIGS down near the front, as well as showers
and storms.

Marine
Sct shower t-storms expected today through fri. Winds and waves
higher near t-storms. SCA conditions possible Wed through thu
night.

Generally expecting winds to remain below SCA criteria on Thursday
and Friday. Though the central bay and lower tidal potomac may get
close each afternoon. Additionally, there is a threat for showers and
thunderstorms for all waters on Thursday, with potentially severe
wind gusts. So special marine warnings may be needed. For Friday,
the threat for showers and storms will really be more confined to
the central bay and lower tidal potomac.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lfr
near term... Lfr
short term... Lfr
long term... Cjl
aviation... Lfr cjl
marine... Lfr cjl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 19 mi52 min W 4.1 G 7 1014.6 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 27 mi52 min NW 2.9 G 8 1014 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 29 mi52 min ESE 5.1 G 7 89°F 1014.4 hPa
FSNM2 29 mi58 min N 1.9 G 5.1 1014.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi112 min S 2.9 96°F 1014 hPa72°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 33 mi52 min 88°F 1013.9 hPa
CPVM2 38 mi52 min 86°F 82°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 38 mi22 min SSE 12 G 16 88°F 83°F1015.4 hPa (-1.3)69°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 44 mi52 min S 7 G 18 1014.7 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gaithersburg - Montgomery County Airport, MD5 mi26 minWNW 610.00 miFair91°F73°F56%1016.9 hPa
College Park Airport, MD14 mi39 minWNW 710.00 miFair94°F64°F38%1014.6 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD16 mi40 minW 510.00 mi91°F69°F49%1015.6 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA20 mi30 minWNW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy97°F66°F37%1014.6 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD21 mi28 minWNW 11 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy97°F68°F39%1014.4 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA24 mi30 minVar 510.00 miMostly Cloudy94°F69°F44%1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGAI

Wind History from GAI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE64SE7CalmSE33CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3Calm3W3NW65W5NW6
1 day agoW4SE10
G17
SE5SE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3S34S6S6S7SE11
2 days ago4CalmCalmSE3CalmSE6SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE343S6SW5CalmW64

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:10 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:48 AM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:19 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.82.21.61.10.70.60.71.11.92.633.12.92.31.71.10.60.40.40.81.62.43

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:05 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:43 AM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:14 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.72.21.610.70.60.71.222.733.12.82.31.610.60.40.50.91.72.53

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.