Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Riviera Beach, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:44PM Sunday December 8, 2019 3:31 PM EST (20:31 UTC) Moonrise 2:49PMMoonset 3:22AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 306 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain or drizzle likely.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain or drizzle likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain or snow likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 306 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will develop over the central united states and lift into the great lakes through Monday. A warm front developing east of this area of low pressure over the carolinas is expected to lift northward across the mid-atlantic during this time. The aforementioned low will drag its trailing cold front through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Monday night through Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Riviera Beach, MD
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location: 39.16, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 081942 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 242 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will develop over the central United States and lift into the Great Lakes through Monday. A warm front developing east of this area of low pressure over the Carolinas is expected to lift northward across the Mid-Atlantic during this time. The aforementioned low will drag its trailing cold front through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong Arctic high pressure will build from the Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night through Thursday night, then shift offshore of New England as low pressure develops over and approaches from the southeastern United States.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. High clouds are on a slow but steady increase ahead of a large trough developing over the mid section of the country. A more dense mid/high level overcast should develop and advect into the region from the west just after dark. Additional low level clouds developing over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia will advect north toward southern Maryland this evening as a warm front develops.

Isentropic lift is expected to increase tonight, with clouds lowering and the potential for rain or drizzle just about everywhere by daybreak. The main focus will likely be in two areas: 1) southeast of I-95 associated with enhanced low-level upglide as a weak SLP min/low develops along a northward advancing warm front, aided by proximity to the Atlantic, and 2) over eastern West Virginia closer to more appreciable height falls ahead of the approaching upper trough.

Temperatures tonight will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Saturday night due to the warmer air moving in on southerly flow and increased cloud cover. Lows are likely to be achieved this evening when cloud cover is thinnest, with temperatures expected to hold steady or slowly rise after midnight.

There may be enough cold air trapped immediately in the lee of the Appalachians/Allegheny crest late tonight into Monday morning to support patchy freezing rain. Given the low confidence and small spatial extent, decided to not go with a Winter Weather Advisory at this point, but the potential is there for a little ice in the US-220 corridor of eastern West Virginia. This outcome is evident in the 12Z NAM/ECMWF. Usually when these two models are close, certainty/likelihood in the outcome is higher, but the ARW/ARW2 members of the 12Z HREF do not show this outcome (they're a few degrees warmer), which casts additional uncertainty, especially since the ARW/ARW2 were the more aggressive models in terms of freezing rain with other recent events over the last couple weeks.

Elsewhere, the period of steadiest rain is expected Monday morning through about mid afternoon, focused mainly along and northwest of the US-29 corridor closest to the parent trough over the Midwest. A relative min in QPF is likely over portions of the Shenandoah Valley due to moist SW flow in the low levels being intersected by upstream terrain.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A lull in the steadiest rain is expected for much of the Mid- Atlantic east of the Appalachians Monday night into first thing Tuesday morning. This is due to strongest low level forcing from the warm front lifting northward out of the area. But as the upper trough and surface cold front trailing low pressure moving across the Great Lakes approaches, showers should re-develop Tuesday into Tuesday night.

The surface front is expected to move east of the area Tuesday evening, but the RRQ of a strong (170+ kt) 250 hPa jet and PVA ahead of the trough lags behind the front, resulting in an anafrontal precipitation event. Precipitation will be fighting some dry advection in NW low level flow, but given the strength of forcing aloft and residual moisture in the column, there should still be enough ingredients to result in rain changing to snow before it ends late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

At the present time, the most likely area for accumulations appears to be in a band from east-central West Virginia northeastward through northwestern Virginia, and northern Maryland, with the highest accums most likely over the higher terrain, including the Blue Ridge mountains. The latest model guidance is a bit aggressive in terms of both anafrontal QPF amounts, and subsequent low level cold air/snowfall. Nudged previous forecast upward but not nearly as aggressive as the 12Z NAM, or even quite as high as the latest ECMWF, given lower certainty in this setup climatologically speaking, and model variability several days out. Of note, 9Z SREF show 4-6 C temp spread at 850 hPa at 12Z Wednesday over the I-95 corridor, which shows there's still a fair amount of uncertainty in just exactly when cold air gets here.

Precipitation should wind down as cold/dry air continues to rush into the region ahead of an Arctic high building in by Wednesday afternoon.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Canadian high pressure will build to the north Wednesday night into Thursday morning, resulting in much colder temperatures. Thursday will be much colder than normal as well, with highs only in the 30s. Dry conditions are expected throughout this period, as the aforementioned cold front should get far enough south and east to be of no concern.

By Friday, though, things get more active. A potent mid-upper cutoff low in the southern stream will swing across the southern US, phasing with northern stream shortwave diving down across the Plains. Attendant surface cyclogenesis will likely occur along the Gulf Coast and moving northward into the Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday.

Timing differences between the GFS and ECMWF for precip arrival exhibits where the forecast becomes more uncertain. The GFS brings precip into our region by midday Friday, while the ECMWF delays precip arrival by roughly 12 hours. The exact timing of precip arrival, as well as the magnitude of residual low level cold/exact low track will determine p-types at onset. What models do agree on is a surface ridge and a strong in-situ cold air damming signature Friday into Saturday. While temperatures gradually begin to warm aloft, temperatures at the surface still remain in the low to mid 20s. As high pressure continues to slowly move off the East Coast, it is unclear if southerly flow will be strong enough to scour out the cold air at the surface prior to precip arrival. While confidence is low in any outcome, the 12Z guidance does show the potential for a wintry mix at onset, (especially for areas west of the I-95 corridor) before temperatures warm throughout the entire column enough to continue the p-type as plain rain.

Rain should taper off by Sunday morning as low pressure moves away from the area. However, areas along/west of the Allegheny Front could see some lingering northwest flow rain/snow showers. Several ensemble members also try to develop a second area of low pressure, which could renew precip chances.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. VFR through this evening in light S flow, with CIGs likely falling quickly after midnight in the DCA/BWI/MTN corridor. CHO/IAD and especially MRB lower confidence in lower CIGs prior to daybreak since they're removed a bit to the west of the best low level moist advection, but CIGs should continue to drop Monday morning, likely falling to IFR. Rain will increase during this time as well.

LLWS is highly likely given 40-50+ kt LLJ down as low as 2 kft AGL. SW Surface gusts to near 20 kts are possible at times. A relative lull in precip is expected Monday night, before showers increase again Tuesday, then changeover to snow before ending Wednesday morning. Most likely terminals to experience accumulation appear to be near MRB, with lower probabilities especially near/east of I-95.

VFR conditions expected on Thursday, with high pressure overhead. Sub-VFR conditions likely Friday into Saturday as low pressure approaches from the south, possibly resulting in mixed pcpn.

MARINE. South winds should stay below SCA criteria through tonight, thoguh the gradient will be increasing. Strong winds just above the surface are expected Monday, but there will also be a steep low level inversion present on the north side of an approaching warm front. Even so, given the strength/height of the inversion, there should be enough to mix down gusts to around 20 kts or so, with highest confidence over the more open waters where SW to NE fetch is longest, and this is where an SCA has been issued for Monday.

The warm front will lift north, and the SCA will likely need to be extended through Tuesday as the inversion weakens in SW flow. Gusty NW winds are expected behind a cold front approaching from the west Wednesday, with SCA likely during this time as well.

Winds should become light Thursday into Friday as high pressure build over the waters.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ533- 534-537-541-543.

SYNOPSIS . DHOF NEAR TERM . DHOF SHORT TERM . DHOF LONG TERM . MSS/CJL AVIATION . DHOF/CJL MARINE . DHOF/CJL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 4 mi43 min S 12 G 15 44°F 1029.5 hPa
FSNM2 4 mi55 min SSE 9.9 G 15 43°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 8 mi49 min SSW 6 G 8.9 45°F 48°F1029.2 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 13 mi43 min 45°F 1029.4 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 14 mi25 min S 9.7 G 12 44°F 45°F1030.4 hPa
CPVM2 14 mi49 min 44°F 38°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 16 mi49 min SSW 9.9 G 12 44°F 44°F1030.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 19 mi31 min ESE 8 G 8.9 44°F 45°F1030.7 hPa (-2.4)34°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 28 mi121 min SSE 8 45°F 1030 hPa33°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 33 mi43 min S 8 G 9.9 46°F 44°F1029.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 42 mi31 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 45°F 1 ft1030.7 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 46 mi49 min SSE 2.9 G 6 44°F 44°F1030.3 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 47 mi55 min SE 5.1 G 8 49°F 44°F1030 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD8 mi37 minSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F27°F47%1029.3 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD9 mi37 minno data mi45°F28°F52%1029.6 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD13 mi97 minSE 910.00 miFair44°F32°F63%1030.3 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD14 mi97 minSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F32°F66%1031.2 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD14 mi37 minSSW 410.00 miFair45°F30°F57%1030.1 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD17 mi36 minSSW 710.00 miFair46°F32°F57%1030.1 hPa
College Park Airport, MD24 mi55 minSSE 510.00 miFair46°F24°F43%1029.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBWI

Wind History from BWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW3NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE33SE8SE8S8SE6
1 day agoW8SW6W4W4W6W6W6NW12
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N8N6NW6NW3CalmCalm3Calm3N56NW9CalmNW5N4
2 days agoW13W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Fort Carroll, Maryland
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Fort Carroll
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:10 AM EST     0.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:21 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:48 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:16 PM EST     1.17 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 11:04 PM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.70.80.90.90.70.50.30.1-0.1-0.100.20.50.81.11.21.110.80.60.50.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:18 AM EST     0.45 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:21 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:49 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:03 AM EST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:57 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:33 PM EST     1.01 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:04 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:13 PM EST     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.40.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.300.40.8110.80.50-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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