Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kane, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:31PM Saturday July 4, 2020 7:34 PM CDT (00:34 UTC) Moonrise 7:26PMMoonset 3:58AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kane, IL
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location: 39.18, -90.42     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 042346 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 646 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

SHORT TERM. (Through Late Sunday Night) Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

The pesky vorticity maximum that has been the catalyst for our storms the last few days has drifted southwest out of the CWA. Some higher clouds from the ongoing convection in central Missouri, which remains trapped under an expansive upper-level ridge across the western U.S., have overspread the area. A surface high drifting northeast on the leading edge of this ridge has brought cooler dew points across southern Illinois and eastern Missouri. This weak advection of drier air, coupled with vertical mixing of a substantially dry layer around 700mb, should keep dew points and precipitation chances suppressed for the overnight hours.

Dew points make a slight recovery tomorrow, but more of the same warm, dry weather is expected. Temperatures return to the low 90s across most of the CWA, but low-70s dew points should only mix out into the upper-60s with slightly more pronounced moisture at 850mb. Some of the CAMs are showing isolated showers in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois along an area of enhanced vorticity and weak low-level convergence. Regardless of this development, there shouldn't be enough moisture to support anything more than a passing shower. Slight chance PoPs remain in that area during the afternoon to reflect any possibility of diurnal enhancement, but the vast majority of the mid-Mississippi Valley will be dry again tomorrow.

MRB

LONG TERM. (Monday through Next Saturday) Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

After a short period of predominately dry weather and lower humidity, those conditions will change next week. Monday and Tuesday we continue to watch a series of vort maxes or weak mid/upper lows track from the lower Mississippi Valley north and northeastward. The guidance all varies somewhat resolving these features and their location but the most consistent track offered by the GFS is through southeast MO and southern IL in the Monday through Tuesday time frame. As discussed yesterday, this pattern will bring deeper moisture and an enhanced precipitation potential. While I can't complete discount the threat of any precipitation during the night or morning period, the main impact should be during peak heating and maximized instability during the afternoon and early evening, supporting isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. On Monday the greatest probability will reside across the southeast half of the CWA with a slightly greater northward extent on Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, modulated by the extent of clouds and precipitation. However with increasing dew points, the heat index will be on the rise and we could see some areas including metro St. Louis with peak afternoon heat indices near 100 on Tuesday.

For the later half of the week and into early next weekend the focus is centered around heat, thunderstorm chances, and the potential impact of thunderstorms on the magnitude of the heat. There is fairly good agreement with the models that the upper ridge centered from the southern Rockies through the southern/central Plains will build and expand into the Mississippi Valley. In the Thursday-Friday time frame there are signs that several migratory short waves tracking along the ridge crest could produce convection or convective systems. The most impactful reach of these would be across the northern CWA. As we get into early next weekend a formidable upper high/ridge centered in the southern Rockies characterized by positive height anomalies of 2-3 standard deviations will dominate much of the central U S. The operational GFS and GEFS are particularly robust with the strength of the ridge. However, our position with respect to the ridge center will have a big impact on the range of scenarios. And as is often the case with a hot pattern we will also be susceptible to ridge runner short waves in the northwest flow aloft and convection/convective complexes.

Overall the pattern increasingly is pointing to the potential for an excessive heat episode. This could start as early as Tuesday in metro St. Louis when peak afternoon heat indices flirt with 100 degrees, with the magnitude and extent of heat and humidity building through the remainder of the week.

Glass

AVIATION. (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening) Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

VFR flight conditions and light east-northeast flow is expected to prevail through Sunday. There may be an isolated shower or thunderstorm this evening, and again on Sunday afternoon, but chances are too low to mention in the TAFs at this time.

Carney

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . None. IL . None.

WFO LSX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Charles, St. Charles County Smartt Airport, MO17 mi40 minNE 510.00 miFair87°F70°F57%1012.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSET

Wind History from SET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5N4E4CalmNE4CalmNE3CalmCalmNE4NE4NE4E6E6E4E55E5--N7NE8NE9NE8NE5
1 day agoNE4E4E8N6E4N3E3CalmE3CalmCalmE3CalmE7SE53E6W3E11E10E7E8E5E7
2 days agoNE4NE7E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5NE5CalmE3CalmSE5E5E5E7E6E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.