Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kings, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 7:36PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 2:42 PM EDT (18:42 UTC) Moonrise 6:13PMMoonset 5:42AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 141 Pm Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
This afternoon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 141 Pm Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight, and special marine warnings may be required, as gusty winds and large hail are possible with any storms. A weak cold front will pass through the waters on Wednesday, followed by a stronger cold front on Thursday, with yet another threat of strong Thunderstorms. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Wednesday afternoon, and again Thursday through Saturday. A gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kings, MD
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location: 39.21, -76.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 071344 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 944 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will begin to lose its influence over the area today as a warm front to our south slowly begins to lift northward. A weak low and cold front will pass over the area Wednesday before a stronger low track into the Great Lakes by the end of the week, bringing a strong cold front eastward across the Mid- Atlantic Thursday. Unsettled weather looks to accompany the low as it slowly lifts north and east Friday, before high pressure begins to build to our south into the weekend. Another low pressure system looks to impact our region late Sunday into Monday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Scattered showers associated with a warm front were occurring in parts of northeastern Maryland and Delaware at mid morning. The showers are forecast to slide off the coast by afternoon along with much of the remaining mid level cloud cover over our region.

Modest warm air advection will occur today ahead of a warm front and we'll see temps warming under cloudy skies to the mid 60s which is a few degrees above normal but nothing out of the ordinary for early April.

The remnants of this morning's convection in Ohio may brush across parts of northeastern Maryland and Delaware late this afternoon. Additional showers and scattered thunderstorms are possible at that time.

The weather looks to turn fairly active this evening as showers with embedded thunderstorms will impact the region. Based on the high res guidance, we anticipate two waves of showers activity to impact the region. The first, which will be a sort of carry over from late this afternoon will be showers associated with the warm front lifting north and then becomes occluded during the overnight hours. Depending on how warm the region gets this afternoon there is some marginal instability and so we may see a rumble of thunder. The updrafts on these storms may be strong enough to generate some small hail but with equilibrium levels fairly shallow I just dont know if there will be enough charge separation distance to see widespread thunder. The best MUCAPE comes later behind the warm front so while I've included mention of thunderstorms I think that we'll be looking at mostly just convective rain showers with some scattered lightning pulses and just a few cloud to ground strikes.

Then as the front hangs over the region a second round of showers with embedded thunderstorms will start to track across between midnight and 6am. As mention earlier MUCAPE starts to really increase and showalters turn negative even as we lose surface forcing we should see elevated thunderstorms track across the region. The question will be how much of those elevated thunderstorms reach the surface as there should be a low level inversion in place. I think we should see at least some small hail from the storms overnight even if elevated winds don't reach the surface.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/. By daybreak Wednesday, warm air will be surging north while a cold front will be approaching from the west. Anticipate temps across DelMarVa warming quickly into the low to mid 70s while across the Poconos temps will be falling most of the day with highs being set in the 50s right around day break. Instability increases quite a bit during the day on Wednesday so I can't rule out some diurnally driven isolated convection but forcing will be fairly weak during the day. If any showers do develop, they should be capable of producing lightning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Synoptic Overview: The first feature of interest in the extended will be a low moving over the Great Lakes on Thursday which will result in a cold frontal passage during the day on Thursday. The low and associated front will strengthen noticeably more or less overhead as a positive baroclinic feedback loop occurs as it interacts favorably with an upper level jet centered south of the area.

The H5 closed low will cross the area on Friday with heights rebounding into the weekend as shortwave ridging briefly develops and helps support surface high pressure to our south. The high moves offshore by Sunday and another low will track towards our area from the south Sunday night into Monday. Although guidance has keyed in on this early week storm, there is still some inherent uncertainty in how this system (which will spend quite some time as a cutoff low in the southwest) phases with the northern stream trough which lifts it northeast.

Dailies:

Wednesday night-Thursday: There will likely be a lull in precipitation through Thursday morning as a weak high briefly moves over the area. This will be short-lived as a frontogenetic cold front will cross the area from W-E during the daytime hours on Thursday (most likely late morning to early afternoon). Given impressive dynamics by just about any metric (height falls, UL divergence, FGEN) coincident with moisture convergence near the boundary (PWATS > 1 inch) expect a band of moderate precipitation to form just ahead of the front and progress eastward rather quickly. Convective potential is still uncertain at this time but will need to be watched as the strong kinematics/forcing would support organized convection if any can form. Winds will increase behind the front with rapid post-frontal drying ending any precipitation and scattering out most clouds. Although the front will result in fairly intense cooling aloft, the increased mixing behind the front will likely cancel of the surface cold advection. Consequently expect highs to run in the mid 50s in the NW to upper 60s in Delmarva with a somewhat typical diurnal curve.

Friday . Behind the low on Friday the main story will be gusty winds as westerly winds look to gust to around 35 kts. Can't rule out meeting Wind Advisory criteria in spots, particularly based on some GFS soundings but will need to see how things evolve as the higher-res guidance gets into focus. Given that the mid-lvl cold core will be moving through the area, can't rule out some rain or even snow showers over the north but these should be on the light side due to the lack of moisture. High temperatures will only be in the low to mid 50s (40s in the Poconos) and with the brisk winds it will not feel particularly pleasant. Although lows will likely get into the mid 30s Friday night, elevated winds should keep the frost potential low.

Saturday through Monday . Most of the weekend looks fairly uneventful as High Pressure builds in briefly to our south. The airmass looks to slowly warm with highs in the mid 50s Saturday and then back into the 60s on Sunday.

By Sunday night moisture advection and warm advection increases ahead of the next storm system coming in from the south, and expect precipitation to develop during this time. Although have enough confidence to justify likely PoPs didn't o overly bullish since the evolution of this system will be dependent upon a southern stream closed low (typically modeled poorly). This storm does have the potential to be quite a soaker given its impressive moisture tap (although the GFS operational is a little less bullish on this) Given the system's track expect fairly warm temperatures on Monday with most places in the low to mid 60s.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR conditions are expected with varying cloud cover. Anticipate 4,000-6,000 foot ceilings by the end of the day. Winds will become south to southwest 5 to 10 kts. Late in the afternoon anticipate an increasing chance for some showers to develop generally over the southern locations including ILG/ACY/MIV. High confidence on VFR ceilings and winds with medium confidence timing of any shower activity.

Tonight. Deteriorating conditions to MVFR with periods of IFR possible in scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms. Light southwesterly winds should prevail but could be higher in vicinity of showers. Medium confidence on timing and spatial distribution of thunderstorms.

Outlook.

Wednesday . MVFR with possible IFR conditions anticipated in the early morning as showers eventually come to an end. Anticipate ceilings to gradually lift during the day with southwesterly winds shifting to northwesterly behind a frontal passage. Winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts from 25 to 30 knots possible by the late afternoon. Medium confidence.

Thursday . VFR initially with deterioration to MVFR into the late morning and afternoon as rain moves into the region ahead of a cold front, and then likely back to VFR behind the front. Southeasterly wind turning southwesterly then westerly into the afternoon. Winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots possible by the late afternoon. Medium confidence.

Friday . Generally VFR with westerly winds from 15 to 20 knots with gusts from up to 30-35 knots. A few MVFR restrictions in KABE and KRDG possible with widely scattered showers. Medium confidence.

Saturday . VFR with westerly-northwesterly winds around 10 kts High confidence.

MARINE. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through this evening. Light and variable winds overnight will become SW increasing to 10-15 knots during the day today. Seas generally 2 to 3 feet.

Outlook .

Wednesday . Sub-SCA conditions expected with northwesterly winds from 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Seas from 1 to 3 feet.

Thursday . SCA conditions likely with southeasterly winds turning southwesterly then westerly. Wind gusts up to 25-30 knots possible by Thursday afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

Friday . Gale conditions possible with westerly winds gusting 30 to potentially near 40 kts. Seas from 3 to 5 feet.

Saturday . SCA conditions may linger into early Saturday morning, otherwise, winds remain below advisory criteria through the daytime hours with gusts 15 to 20 knots. Seas lowering to 2 to 3 feet.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Astronomical high tides will be running high for the next few days with the full moon. We don't have much onshore flow through the next few days, but given the current astronomical high tides, even weak onshore flow could produce minor coastal flooding. At this point, we are expecting spotty minor flooding for most high tide cycles until we get to Wednesday evening. For the Wednesday evening/night high tide, we are currently forecasting widespread minor flooding for the Atlantic oceanfront and the Delaware Bay. However, this will be highly dependent on the timing of a cold front on Wednesday. Currently we are forecasting the front to cross off shore late in the day, thus winds won't shift to offshore until just before the high tide, having little to no impact to decrease water levels. However, if the front arrives earlier in the day, the increased period of offshore flow ahead of the high tide could lead to lower water levels at high tide. We will continue to monitor this over the next few days.

On the tidal portions of the Delaware River, there could be spotty minor tidal flooding for the next few high tide cycles, but the chance for widespread minor flooding is low.

At this point, tidal flooding is not expected along the northeastern Chesapeake Bay.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.



Synopsis . Carr Near Term . Carr/Deal/Iovino Short Term . Carr/Deal Long Term . Carr Aviation . Carr/Deal Marine . Carr/Deal Tides/Coastal Flooding . Johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 10 mi73 min W 2.9 G 7 60°F 54°F1012.1 hPa
CPVM2 23 mi73 min 59°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 25 mi73 min SE 8.9 G 11 59°F 1011.4 hPa
FSNM2 25 mi73 min E 9.9 G 9.9 59°F 1011.2 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 26 mi73 min SW 4.1 G 7 64°F 54°F1012.1 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 27 mi73 min 1011.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 28 mi73 min S 6 G 11 62°F 55°F1010.9 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 29 mi43 min SSE 7 G 8 58°F 54°F1012.2 hPa (-2.5)54°F
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 35 mi73 min 63°F 53°F1011.7 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 36 mi73 min SE 7 G 8 58°F 55°F1012.3 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 37 mi73 min ESE 11 G 12 53°F 1013.1 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 44 mi73 min SSE 7 G 8.9 69°F 56°F1012.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 45 mi133 min W 5.1 1012 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 49 mi49 min S 14 G 14 57°F

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD19 mi1.7 hrsENE 56.00 miMostly Cloudy with Haze63°F51°F68%1013.2 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD21 mi49 minSE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F57°F83%1012.2 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD22 mi58 minSSE 510.00 miFair68°F53°F60%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS10SW10SW9SW8SW6SW6W4SW6W5SW6SW6SW4W4W4N4N5N7N7N9N9N8--N6N7
2 days agoCalmNE5E3E6SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW4SW3SW4SW3SW3SW4--SW6SW4W6S7SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Chestertown, Maryland
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Chestertown
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:20 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:20 AM EDT     2.57 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:56 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:56 PM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.30.30.61.21.82.32.52.52.11.610.50.1-00.10.51.11.72.12.32.11.71.2

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:02 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:15 AM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:25 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:33 AM EDT     -1.00 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:46 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT     0.85 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:39 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 11:42 PM EDT     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-0.5-00.50.810.90.70.2-0.3-0.7-1-1-0.8-0.40.10.50.80.80.70.3-0.2-0.6-0.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.