Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kings, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:51PM Thursday April 22, 2021 9:28 PM EDT (01:28 UTC) Moonrise 1:38PMMoonset 3:04AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 742 Pm Edt Thu Apr 22 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am edt Friday...
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Sat night..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ500 742 Pm Edt Thu Apr 22 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will settle over the carolinas through Friday. Low pressure will pass through central or southern virginia and maryland this weekend, when small craft advisories will likely be needed.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kings, MD
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location: 39.21, -76.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 222342 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 742 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure to our northeast will continue pulling away into the Canadian maritimes tonight. Strong high pressure will slide to our south through Friday night then move offshore on Saturday. A coastal low will affect the area Saturday night into early Sunday. High pressure begins to build in on Monday and will likely dominate the weather for most of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. An expansive upper-level trough covers much of eastern Canada southward through the Mid-Atlantic with the core of the closed low moving into the Canadian Maritimes this evening. Cold cyclonic flow remains in place and with deep surface low pressure tracking into the Canadian Maritimes with surface high pressure building across the southern states, a tight pressure gradient remains across our region. The extent of the winds as we go through the night will have an impact on temperature trends and especially on frost formation.

The cold air advection is forecast to weaken tonight, although a secondary trough axis swings through later this evening. A little increase in cold air advection is forecast in the wake of that, although it looks to be transient and not all that strong. A strong shortwave accompanies the trough axis and the forecast challenge is will all of these features keep the wind elevated enough to prevent frost. Given the waning cold air advection overall overnight and the pressure gradient relaxing a little, the winds are expected to diminish this evening and especially overnight. The forecast soundings suggest that enough decoupling takes place where some frost may develop outside of the urban centers. This looks to be mostly a few hours prior to sunrise. Where the Freeze Watch was in effect, a freeze is expected tonight and therefore it was upgraded to a Freeze Warning. For the I-95 area from Philadelphia to Wilmington including the adjacent New Jersey zones, we are not anticipating a freeze but frost is quite possible prior to sunrise therefore will go with a Frost Advisory. The same for our Delmarva zones as the winds should drop off enough. Predicting frost development is tricky especially during these setups, but it only takes a few hours prior to sunrise for the winds to go light enough and then some frost occurs. The emphasis for the Frost Advisory area will be away from bodies of water/coasts and outside of the urban centers. We will leave out Cape May County due to the southern half of the county getting a breeze off Delaware Bay and also the New Jersey coastal zones and Delaware Beaches as some wind should remain there. The ending time of 9 AM for the frost/freeze headlines is probably a little late as temperatures should rebound quickly right after sunrise, but it can always be cancelled early.

Otherwise, the wealth of stratocumulus is expected to dissipate through the evening. The aforementioned trough axis and strong shortwave may assist with some high level clouds for a time overnight, however by daybreak most if not all areas should have a clear/mostly clear sky.

For Friday, the closed low is forecast to lift farther northeastward across the Canadian Maritimes and lessen its grip on our area. Surface high pressure will edge closer from the southwest as some midlevel ridging approaches later in the day. A tightened pressure gradient however will remain in place and while it will not be as windy as today (Thursday), a gusty westerly wind is expected. The air mass will be modifying as the core of the cold air has shifted to our northeast and east. This combined with westerly flow and minimal cloud cover results in a milder afternoon after a rather cold start. The forecast soundings hint at some stratocumulus development, however the moist layer looks rather thin and given the warming aloft there will be less of a temperature gradient between the surface and 850 mb. As a result, plenty of sunshine is anticipated for Friday.

The mid level ridge gets closer Friday night with surface high pressure starting to edge into our region. The center of the surface high however will be shifting off the Southeast U.S. coast Friday night. The winds will drop off quicker to start Friday evening as mixing rapidly lessens. Given that the air mass will continue to modify slowly under westerly flow, temperatures will not be as cold and there are no concerns with frost/freeze conditions.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Multiple shortwave troughs will approach the region by late Saturday in a relatively zonal and progressive pattern over the CONUS. This will lead to a period of unsettled weather for our area. Trends in model guidance continue to show later and lesser (if any) interaction between the northern and southern streams regarding this system. That is contributing to an overall less amplified trend with this system. It is mainly the southern stream component, comprised of a couple of vorticity maxima embedded within a shortwave, which will affect the mid-Atlantic. As that shortwave approaches, a slowly strengthening surface low will track over or just south of our area, accompanied by a decent envelope of moisture. While a period of rain continues to look likely, mainly on Saturday night, this is not looking like a significant event for our area. Earlier expectations were for the northern and southern stream components to phase over or close to our region. Now, if this happens at all, it won't be until the system is well to our northeast. That will keep the low progressive and eliminate the other concerns that could've come with a stronger low such as strong winds or coastal flooding.

Most of the day on Saturday continues to look dry and quite pleasant, as high pressure off the Southeast coast continues to exert some influence despite moving further away. A shift in the winds to a more southerly direction will allow temperatures to climb well into the 60s, to around 70. Clouds will steadily increase and thicken especially in the afternoon, but most if not all of the daytime hours will stay dry. Rain should overspread from southwest to northeast Saturday evening and early overnight. Steady light to moderate rain appears likely for most of Saturday night. Rainfall amounts of mostly under an inch are anticipated, and with dry antecedent conditions, not expecting any hydro concerns.

By Sunday, low pressure will be departing. Lingering light rain is possible in the morning, especially to the north. A drying trend can be expected from south to north. Expect most areas to be dry before noon, and southern area may be dry for the entirety of the daytime period. Sunshine will also develop with time. Northwesterly winds will develop on the back side of the departing low. With the trend for a weaker low and later phasing of the system, strong winds do not appear to be much of a concern, but breezy conditions are still likely in the afternoon with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. Despite a bit of cold advection on the northwest flow, the developing sunshine should still boost high temperatures well into the 60s. Cool, dry, and breezy conditions for the overnight with lows in the upper 30s and low 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Overview .

A blockier upper level pattern develops across North America for most of next week, as longwave features don't quite grind to a halt but will become much slower moving. For fans of warm spring weather, this will work in your favor, as a building ridge and strong high pressure will dominate the weather over the East Coast. Temperatures will steadily climb next week as the ridge strengthens, with a lengthy stretch of dry weather expected. We are likely to see temperatures into the 70s by Tuesday, with a good chance for some 80 degree readings by midweek. With the spring green-up underway, we are getting past the time of year when one can confidently add several degrees to the model blend forecast highs. However, it would still not be surprising if temperatures end up even warmer than currently forecast by mid next week. Some of the warmest guidance indicates we could be well into the 80s, if not approaching 90, by next Thursday.

Dailies .

Monday-Monday night . A transitional day expected on Monday as upper level troughing associated with the weekend storm lifts off to the northeast and ridging begins to build in. Warm advection never really develops during the day, so highs will only be near to a touch below average in the low to mid 60s. But it will be a sunny and pleasant day overall, with another cool and dry overnight.

Tuesday-Thursday . Not much to say, as a gorgeous stretch of spring weather is likely. Ridging builds over the East, and southerly flow will steadily draw warmer air into the region. By Tuesday, most areas should be into the 70s. By Wednesday and Thursday, we will likely see 80 degree readings, and potentially well into the 80s if the warmer guidance is correct. Didn't go quite that warm yet as we often have to worry about backdoor cold front potential this time of year, but barring one of those, upward adjustments to the forecast highs are likely. By late next week, a slow moving cold front will likely approach the area from the west, but that will probably hold off until Friday.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR with decreasing clouds. West northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

Friday . VFR under a mostly clear sky. West wind increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. High confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday . VFR. CIGs will likely begin to develop and gradually lower in the afternoon. Southwest wind 5 to 15 kt. High confidence.

Saturday night . Restrictions will develop in the evening and early overnight as rain overspreads the region. A transition to MVFR and likely widespread IFR is expected. Winds gradually shifting from south to east to northeast at around 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Sunday-Sunday night . Lingering sub-VFR with rain is possible Sunday morning, but there should be a fairly quick trend towards improvement during the later morning and especially afternoon. All the terminals should be VFR by noontime. Northeast wind of 5 to 10 kt shifting to northwest and increasing to around 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon and through the night. Moderate confidence.

Monday-Monday night . VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 15 kt decreasing overnight and becoming light and variable. High confidence.

Tuesday-Tuesday night . VFR. Light winds in the morning becoming southwest at 5 to 10 kt, then light and variable again overnight. High confidence.

MARINE. The Gale Warning has been downgraded to a Small Craft Advisory on all our waters as the wind continues to diminish slowly. The Small Craft Advisory is in effect until noon Friday on Delaware Bay and the coastal waters of Delaware, and until 6:00 PM Friday on the coastal waters of New Jersey.

The air mass will be warmer Friday afternoon, therefore the mixing may limit the winds over the cooler waters with the stronger winds shifting to along the coast.

Outlook .

Saturday . Sub-SCA conditions expected. Southwest wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

Saturday night-Sunday night . SCA conditions will develop from south to north on Saturday night as an area of low pressure passes over or just south of the region. South or southeast wind gusts will increase to around 25 kt, with seas building towards 5 ft. Sunday will see a wind shift to northwest with gusts of 25 to 30 kt likely and seas of 5 to 7 ft. On Sunday night, Delaware Bay may fall below SCA levels, but the Atlantic coastal waters will see continued 5 to 6 ft seas and northwest wind gusts to around 25 kt.

Monday-Tuesday . Trending towards sub-SCA conditions on Monday and beyond, with decreasing winds and seas. Quiet conditions likely on the waters for most of next week.

FIRE WEATHER. Enhanced fire weather conditions are expected again on Friday. On the whole, Friday will be a more concerning fire weather day. Despite lighter winds with gusts under 30 mph, relative humidity values will likely be a little lower, temperatures will be considerably warmer, and fuels will have had a good day of drying on Thursday. After coordination with state partners, we plan to issue a Special Weather Statement for the entire forecast area on Friday to cover the fire weather risk. However, users should be advised that we will be experiencing Red Flag meteorological conditions in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, with marginal fuel moisture precluding the issuance of a warning. Fire weather concerns should diminish over the weekend with lighter winds on Saturday and rain by Saturday night.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ060>062- 101>106. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ070-071. NJ . Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NJZ001-007>010- 012-013-015-020>022-027. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NJZ016>019. DE . Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for DEZ001>003. MD . Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for MDZ012-015-019- 020. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ450>453. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for ANZ430-431-454- 455.



Synopsis . O'Brien Near Term . Gorse Short Term . O'Brien Long Term . O'Brien Aviation . Iovino/O'Brien Marine . Gorse/Iovino/O'Brien Fire Weather . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 10 mi64 min NNW 15 G 17 49°F 54°F1016.9 hPa
CPVM2 23 mi58 min 48°F 22°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 25 mi58 min NW 12 G 14 49°F 1016.6 hPa
FSNM2 25 mi58 min WNW 14 G 17 48°F 1016.2 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 26 mi58 min NW 5.1 G 6 46°F 57°F1016.7 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 27 mi40 min 9.7 G 14 46°F 53°F1018.7 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 27 mi58 min W 5.1 G 8 47°F 56°F1016.4 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 28 mi58 min NW 4.1 G 9.9 48°F 55°F1016.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 29 mi28 min WNW 8 G 8.9 48°F 53°F1018.2 hPa (+1.6)20°F
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 35 mi58 min 45°F 58°F1015.8 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 36 mi58 min NW 8.9 G 12 45°F 1016.2 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 37 mi58 min 47°F 53°F1016.8 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 44 mi58 min W 9.9 G 19 50°F 56°F1016.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 45 mi58 min N 1.9 47°F 1016 hPa20°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 49 mi40 min 14 G 16 47°F 54°F1 ft1018.4 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD19 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair43°F18°F36%1017.6 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD21 mi34 minWNW 7 G 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F19°F37%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4SW4W5W7SW8S12S12
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Tide / Current Tables for Chestertown, Maryland
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Chestertown
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:51 AM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:16 PM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:56 PM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.31.71.921.81.61.20.90.70.60.711.41.82.12.32.221.71.310.80.7

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:23 AM EDT     0.54 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:22 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:14 AM EDT     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:59 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:21 PM EDT     0.72 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:30 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:48 PM EDT     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.40.50.50.40.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.300.30.60.70.70.50.2-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.4

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