Tuesday, August4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Norris, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:10PM Tuesday August 4, 2020 12:55 AM EDT (04:55 UTC) Moonrise 8:11PMMoonset 5:46AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 1135 Pm Edt Mon Aug 3 2020
.tropical storm warning in effect...
Overnight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..Tropical storm conditions expected. E winds 35 to 40 kt, becoming sw 45 to 55 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 4 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less. Showers likely early in the evening. A chance of tstms until early morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the evening.
Wed..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms until late afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming W around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms.
Fri night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1135 Pm Edt Mon Aug 3 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A front with lift north through the region overnight. Meanwhile, hurricane isaias is expected to continue northward from the eastern carolinas before reaching the mid- atlantic on Tuesday. Isaias will move toward new england by Wednesday. High pressure will build in to our north later this week into this weekend while a weak front lingers to our south.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Norris, NJ
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location: 39.23, -75.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 040438 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1238 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. A front with lift north through the region tonight. Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Isaias is expected to continue northward from Florida and inland across the eastern Carolinas later today before reaching the Mid- Atlantic on Tuesday. Isaias will move toward New England by Wednesday. High pressure will build in to our north later this week into this weekend while a weak front lingers to our south.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/.

1230 AM Update: Parts of the area in brief lull before the next round of showers already affecting parts of Delmarva spreads north through the predawn hours. At the 11 PM Update, Isaias was upgraded to a Hurricane however it is expected to weaken once again before reaching the mid Atlantic. Full forecast update will be out within the next few hours but at this point after already examining new guidance forecast appears to be mostly on track.

Previous Discussion: Yet another round of storms can be expected (ahead of the main show associated with Isaias tomorrow during the day) to impact portions our area late tonight into tomorrow morning. The synoptic signal exists for a Predecessor Rain Event over our area with this round of precipitation. Likely the greatest chance of locally moderate-heavy precipitation will be NW of the I-95 corridor as the 925-850 flow backs more SErly and the upslope component combines with the other favorable parameters (jet dynamics, the aforementioned boundary, local theta-e maximum etc.). Although this precursor precipitation may not directly result in hydro concerns it does bear watching as areas that get impacted will have lower FFG (and thus be more susceptible to flooding) for the main event tomorrow.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of the region.

Tropical Cyclone Isaias will be speeding quickly northward by early Tuesday in response to a strong jet streak passing through the region. The cyclone will likely be undergoing an extratropical transition as it moves from the Carolinas toward the Mid- Atlantic on Tuesday. Important to note though, this may not actually weaken the storm and it may even gain strength from the baroclinic support as indicated by the latest ECMWF model run. The strong divergence aloft will promote an enhancement of convection associated with the system and support at least a maintenance of its strength. As far as the track and timing, there isn't been a big change in the forecast track with this update but the trend with guidance has been for a slightly faster timing. As we are getting closer to the arrival of this system, confidence is growing in a track that takes the system NE across the CWA. However even at this time range it is important to not focus on the exact track but rather the potential impacts. It appears the greatest impacts will occur during much of the day Tuesday, particularly late morning and through the evening hours before the storm lifts northeast out of the area.

Multiple hazards are with Isaias are including, but not limited to, fresh water flooding, coastal flooding/storm surge, strong winds and even isolated tornadoes. The greatest precipitation amounts are forecast to fall right along and just west of the urban and I-95 corridor with 3-6" of rain with locally higher amounts possible. This will lead to a flash flooding threat, especially for the more urbanized areas and portions of Berks County that received an excessive amount of rain Sunday morning. In fact the flooding has the potential to be widespread and significant. Widespread damaging winds may also be an issue. Again, the system will be starting to lose its tropical characteristics but because of the strong baroclinic zone it will be moving into this could actually strengthen it. Winds will initially be from the E/SE then shift to NW behind the system. Sustained winds of 40+ mph will be possible along the coast with gusts potentially reaching over 60 mph here. Farther N/W towards the I-95 corridor, widespread gusts of 45 to 55+ mph are likely. The upshot is that there could be fairly extensive impacts potentially including widespread power outages. These impacts may be exacerbated by the rainfall loosening the ground soil. Coastal flooding and/or storm surge will be directly dependent on the exact timing and track of the system and this is further described in the section below. Finally, with a favored track near the coast or just inland, this will set up very strong low level shear just ahead of and east of the storm and this could cause a spin up of a few tornadoes Tuesday afternoon. The most favored areas for this are near and S/E of the I-95 corridor.

Tuesday night . As Isaias departs into Tuesday evening, a remnant surface boundary will remain somewhere across the forecast area. The area will still be a in a favorable location for synoptic support for convection with the jet streak still located just to the northwest. So showers and thunderstorms will remain possible into the overnight, although the activity should diminish through time. Cloudy skies will begin to break overnight as well with lows within a few degrees of 70 and humid.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure begins to build in from the north and west on Wednesday, but an old frontal boundary will linger across the area. Several weak mid-level troughs will pass through the region through the end of the week keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Best chances look to be Thursday night/Friday over Delmarva and southern New Jersey as a weak coastal low develops along that old boundary. Otherwise, precip will not be widespread, so conditions should be fairly dry most of the time.

Temperatures will generally be in the 80s to near 90 along with surface dewpoints in the 60s to around 70. The dog days of August are here.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Mainly VFR this evening except in showers/thunderstorms. Widespread MVFR conditions expected later tonight towards daybreak as lower ceilings move in and showers become more numerous.

Winds will be from the south, then southeast, less than 10 kt.

High confidence.

Tuesday and Tuesday night . Tropical Storm Isaias will impact the terminals during this timeframe. MVFR/IFR CIGs and frequent VSBY restrictions with heavy rain and isolated TSRA. Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt with higher gusts will ramp up to Tropical Storm Force winds. A quick switch to west or southwest winds is likely by late afternoon or evening as Isaias moves rapidly northeast of the region, with speeds/gusts quickly lowering and precipitation diminishing. High confidence on general evolution, but low confidence on specific impacts at each terminal given track/timing uncertainty with Isaias. Conditions improve Tuesday night.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Saturday . Mostly VFR. Scattered SHRA/TSRA possible each afternoon/evening that would result in brief sub- VFR conditions at a given terminal. Fog may develop during the overnight. West winds less than 10 kt on Wednesday, then east to northeast Thursday through Saturday. LGT/VRB at night. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Tonight . Sub-SCA conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms increasing overnight. Locally higher winds and waves in proximity to thunderstorms.

Tuesday through Tuesday night . Tropical Storm Warnings in effect as Tropical Storm Isaias will impact the waters with 35-45 kt winds with 55-65 kt gusts, along with heavy rain and possible waterspouts. Conditions improve Tuesday night as the storm departs.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Saturday . A prolonged period of sub-SCA conditions expected for the waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon/evening.

Rip Currents .

On Tuesday, impacts from Isaias will increase the rip-current risk level to high. In addition, high surf is expected. A rip current risk statement and high surf advisory are in effect for this period, so in conclusion Tuesday will not be a good day to be at the beach.

The rip current risk will likely remain elevated on Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY. Hydro concerns continue overnight as shower/storms develop across the area ahead of Isaias. Any of these will be capable of producing heavy rain with at least localized flash flooding possible. The heaviest, steadiest rain with the storm will arrive later overnight through Tuesday. More widespread flash flooding will be an increasing threat during this time. Most susecptible areas will be near and N/W of the I-95 corridor especially since places such as in Berks County have received so much rainfall recently. With Isaias, 3 to 6 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts are expected. Flooding could be widespread and significant.

In addition to flash flooding, river flooding is also becoming a likely threat. The latest MARFC forecast has about 15 forecast points above Action Stage and 6 at or above Flood Stage, including, Norristown, Graterford, Langhorne, Chadds Ford, Stanton, and Blackwells Mills. With such a large swath of precipitation expected, most basins across the forecast area will see at least some threat. That said, the Delaware River is expected to remain within its banks.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The coastal flooding impacts from Isaias remain very uncertain at this time. Models notoriously handle fast-moving, intense cyclones poorly in our area, as the short duration of onshore flow competes with the strength of the winds. These competing impacts and sensitivities are not well understood from a modeling standpoint, leading to rather large spread in the model guidance.

We continue to advertise coastal flooding in three areas on Tuesday. The first, and potentially most significant, is expected on the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay, where surge will likely move northward during the day. What is unclear, however, is the strength of this surge. Model guidance is particularly poor for these areas, and the output the past couple of days seems unrealistically low. However, the extent of impacts remains quite unclear. At this point, there is potential for moderate flooding, which requires continuation of the coastal flood warning. However, it is possible impacts will be less significant/widespread. We will likely not have a better idea of impacts until after daybreak, when gauges in lower Chesapeake Bay begin to respond.

The second area is Delaware Bay and adjacent Atlantic coastal areas of New Jersey and Delaware. The real question here will be the timing of the surge relative to the astronomical high tide. With guidance trending a little faster with the surge, the timing looks a little less favorable for coincidence of peak surge and astronomical high tide for the Delaware Bay sites. Nevertheless, the strength of southeast winds in advance of Isaias may compensate much more readily than models suggest. A coastal flood advisory has been issued here for the entire day given the uncertainty of peak surge timing.

The third area is the tidal Delaware River. Here, confidence is increasing that minor flooding will occur during the afternoon, as predecessor southeast winds will likely combine with freshwater runoff to lead to a period of tidal flooding from early afternoon to early evening. As with Delaware Bay, confidence is not particularly high on exact timing of flooding, so have issued a coastal flood advisory for a broader period of time than normal (11 am to 8 pm).

For the rest of the Atlantic coast, confidence remains too low to issue coastal flood products at this time. However, we remain concerned that the northern New Jersey coast may end up seeing some minor flooding given the very strong onshore winds preceding Isaias. We will continue to monitor this potential and may end up issuing a coastal flood advisory later this morning for the rest of the coast.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park Pennsylvania (Station WNG-704) remains off the air.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Flash Flood Watch through this evening for PAZ054-055-060>062- 070-071-101>106. Tropical Storm Warning for PAZ070-071-101>106. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070-071-106. NJ . Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NJZ001-007>010- 012>027. Tropical Storm Warning for NJZ001-007>010-012>027. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ016-021-023-024. High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NJZ014-024>026. High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for NJZ014-024>026. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ017>019. DE . Flash Flood Watch through this evening for DEZ001>004. Tropical Storm Warning for DEZ001>004. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001>004. High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for DEZ004. High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for DEZ004. MD . Flash Flood Watch through this evening for MDZ008-012-015-019- 020. Tropical Storm Warning for MDZ008-012-015-019-020. Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ008-012-015-019-020. MARINE . Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ430-431-450>455.

Synopsis . MPS Near Term . Carr/Fitzsimmons/Kruzdlo Short Term . MPS/Staarmann Long Term . MPS Aviation . Kruzdlo/MPS Marine . Kruzdlo/MPS Hydrology . WFO PHI Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 17 mi62 min S 8.9 G 9.9 1017.8 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 19 mi62 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 75°F 74°F1017.2 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 19 mi62 min 80°F 1017.6 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 31 mi62 min SSE 1.9 G 4.1 78°F 75°F1017.3 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 34 mi62 min 75°F 62°F1018.4 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 36 mi62 min 74°F 86°F1016.5 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 37 mi86 min S 6 77°F 1019 hPa72°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 38 mi62 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 76°F 80°F1017 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 45 mi62 min 77°F 85°F1017.1 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 46 mi62 min SSE 1 G 1.9 74°F 87°F1017.3 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 49 mi62 min 77°F 84°F1016.9 hPa

Wind History for Brandywine Shoal Light, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ10 mi62 minSSE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F73°F91%1017.1 hPa
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ17 mi60 minSSE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F72°F88%1017.8 hPa
Dover Air Force Base, DE24 mi60 minS 410.00 miLight Rain76°F72°F88%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMIV

Wind History from MIV (wind in knots)
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S3CalmW4SW3W5SW3W4W6NW44--W11W4W6W4SW4CalmNW4E5CalmS3SE3
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Tide / Current Tables for Bivalve, Maurice River, New Jersey
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Bivalve
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:08 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:39 AM EDT     5.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:58 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:57 PM EDT     6.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.14.83.21.60.50.10.41.534.45.25.44.942.71.40.50.20.61.93.65.36.56.9

Tide / Current Tables for West Creek, Route 47 bridge, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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West Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:11 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:20 PM EDT     2.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:01 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.92.521.30.70.20.10.20.71.422.32.32.11.61.10.60.20.10.30.91.62.4

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.