Thursday, March4, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Silver Springs, NV

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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 5:54PM Thursday March 4, 2021 8:56 PM PST (04:56 UTC) Moonrise 12:17AMMoonset 10:43AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Springs, NV
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Area Discussion for - Reno, NV
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FXUS65 KREV 042243 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 243 PM PST Thu Mar 4 2021

SYNOPSIS.

Temperatures will remain above average through Friday with breezy southwest winds expected. A pattern change to more active winter weather is likely with cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and chances for rain and snow beginning this Saturday and extending through much of next week.

SHORT TERM.

Changes made this forecast cycle:

* Increased POPs for the Sierra, northeast California, and extreme portions of western Nevada for late Friday night into early Saturday.

* Issued Lake Wind Advisories for Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake for Friday into Saturday.

Another tranquil weather day out there across the region this afternoon with the axis of the high pressure ridge just towards the east. Temperatures are currently either at or just above average for this time of year with a bit more warming expected for the remainder of today thanks to some breezy southwest winds and a clear sky. Conditions begin to change for Friday with stronger south-southwest winds and increased cloud cover in response to an incoming shortwave trough expected to pass through the region late Friday night into Saturday. Friday is looking to be another above average temperature day, but cloud coverage could limit high temperatures a tad.

Southwest winds will be gusty beginning Friday afternoon becoming more west-northwest by early Saturday as the axis of the shortwave trough treks across the Sierra and western Nevada. With upper- level support present and sufficient mixing anticipated, it makes sense that the majority of ECMWF ensemble members are in the 25-35 mph range area-wide with up to 80 mph for the Sierra ridges. Rough conditions on area lakes, including Tahoe and Pyramid, are expected for Friday afternoon through Saturday. It is important to note, that a short period of strong 50+mph gusts are possible for Mono County from late Friday night into early Saturday morning accompanied by the frontal passage.

Confidence has increased in chances for accumulating snow down to Lake Tahoe level for Friday night into early Saturday morning. Recent short range model guidance shows an intense, but brief period of heavy snowfall with some impressive rates due to the convective nature of the shortwave and associated cold front. The NAM 3km and HREF show 1-2" per hour snowfall rates for a 1-3 hour period mainly from 3 am to 6 am Saturday, targeting the Tahoe Basin and Alpine County. This makes sense given the dynamic nature of the trough being negatively-tilted with an upper-level jet max directly over the Sierra during this time which the ensembles and deterministic GFS continue to show. With the forcing there, feeling pretty confident at this time that snowfall rates will be intense for a brief time with possibly even some thundersnow, especially along and west of the Sierra crest with even more help from orographic uplift. Remember, even with the intense rates, snow accumulation will be limited due to the quick progression of the trough. Most model guidance has snow tapering by sunrise Saturday. Nonetheless, anticipate hazardous travel conditions over the Sierra passes and area roadways in western Lassen County for Saturday morning.

As for the Sierra foothills and western Nevada, the southerly flow will shadow out these locations for the most part with the best shot of some sprinkles/spits of rain turning to lighter snow showers along the front for early Saturday morning. For more on the specifics such as snow totals and impacts, please see the Special Weather Statement.

Sunday looks quiet with average to slightly above average temperatures and lighter winds as ridging amplifies towards the southeast. -LaGuardia LONG TERM (Sunday Onward).

Looks to be a pretty busy return to winter conditions early to mid next week based on GEFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance. However there are some potential pitfalls to be aware of this far out. Large scale cold trough digs offshore this weekend, then moves onshore by mid next week. This will send waves of precipitation into our region coupled with breezy winds. My main concern is that the core dynamics of this system split south which happens often in spring, and that could lead to much less snow than our official forecast is carrying.

With that said, the leading scenarios bring snow into the Sierra starting Monday evening, continuing on/off through Wednesday and possibly Thursday if trough is slower. It's a cold system so rain- snow line elevations will be much lower than normal for this time of year - potentially resulting in large travel impacts. The water equivalent with this snow isn't overly impressive with minimal IVT and no atmospheric rivers off the Pacific. So it will be nice to have the bonus snow, but it won't be a big boost to water supply. Speaking of pitfalls - the NBM snowfall guidance for Donner Pass and Mammoth Mountain continues to show wide ranges: 75th percentile for Monday-Wednesday is 20" while the 25th percentile is only 6".

Into W Nevada there is the usual wide variability in scenarios depending on spillover and track of the individual waves. NBM guidance for valleys showing snowfall each day Monday-Wednesday ranging from zero to 1 inch at the 75th percentile but up to 2-3" at the 90th percentile if we get convective bands spilling over. Pattern is cold enough to support snow to valley floors. This time of year impacts are more driven by time of day and snow intensity, so TBD on that for W Nevada areas. For winds, periods of strong gusty winds are likely especially Monday and Tuesday. Most ensembles have typical breezy 25-40 mph type gusts so that's the leading scenario, but 10% or so do high high wind outcomes of over 60 mph at times.

Beyond that the pattern remains somewhat noisy in the ensemble guidance with most clusters yielding a zonal flow off the Pacific. Most individual members have additional storms through mid-March but vary widely on character and timing.

-Chris

AVIATION.

VFR conditions will prevail through Friday before a minor winter weather system moves through the Sierra Friday night into Saturday.

Breezy southwest winds are expected for the remainder of this afternoon before decreasing this evening. Southwest winds increase once again early Friday beginning in higher elevations with areas of moderate turbulence and isolated low level wind shear possible across Sierra terminals. Winds aloft, mountain turbulence, and mountain obscuration will likely peak Friday night into Saturday just ahead of the low pressure system.

Some runway snowfall accumulations will be possible through Saturday morning mainly for KTRK and KTVL with about a 30% likelihood of seeing 1-2 inches of snowfall with less than a 15% chance of seeing an inch of snow at KMMH. There is an 80% chance that KTRK and KTVL see at least 0.1" of snow during this time. Western Nevada terminals will only see very light spillover rain/snow showers Saturday morning with little to no accumulation expected due to forecast above freezing temperatures. An unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue for at least the first half of next week. Fuentes/LaGuardia

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories.

NV . Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 PM PST Saturday for Pyramid Lake in NVZ004.

Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 PM PST Saturday for Lake Tahoe in NVZ002.

CA . Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 PM PST Saturday for Lake Tahoe in CAZ072.



For more information from the National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/reno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fallon, Naval Air Station, NV20 mi60 minNE 710.00 miA Few Clouds44°F18°F35%1018.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNFL

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Last 24hr5S7SW5S7S8SW6SW7SW8S5S9S8SE6SE8S6SE86S5E75555NE7NE7
1 day ago555S5S5CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmE3N3CalmN6N4N35NE8NE5E55S5
2 days ago555CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmN5N5NE3CalmW3CalmCalmE3N5NE6NE8NE6NE7NE7E5

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