Monday, August3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Corbin City, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:09PM Monday August 3, 2020 2:15 PM EDT (18:15 UTC) Moonrise 8:35PMMoonset 5:41AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ453 Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 101 Pm Edt Mon Aug 3 2020
.tropical storm warning in effect...
This afternoon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms late with vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 4 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers until early morning, then showers likely late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tue..Tropical storm conditions expected. SE winds 30 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt, becoming S 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 65 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 11 ft, building to 15 ft in the afternoon. Showers with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Seas around 11 ft dominant period 9 seconds, building to 15 ft dominant period 9 seconds in the afternoon.
Tue night..Tropical storm conditions possible. SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 10 ft, subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. Showers early in the evening. A chance of tstms until early morning, then a chance of showers late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the evening. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. Light swell in the morning.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of tstms.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 101 Pm Edt Mon Aug 3 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will stall near the region today before lifting north again tonight. Meanwhile, tropical storm isaias is expected to continue northward from florida and inland across the eastern carolinas later today before reaching the mid-atlantic on Tuesday. Isaias will move toward new england by Wednesday. High pressure will build in to our north later this week into this weekend while a weak front lingers to our south.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Corbin City, NJ
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location: 39.25, -74.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 031545 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1145 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will stall near the region today before lifting north again tonight. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to continue northward from Florida and inland across the eastern Carolinas later today before reaching the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Isaias will move toward New England by Wednesday. High pressure will build in to our north later this week into this weekend while a weak front lingers to our south.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Just about everyone crossing over into the 80s at this hour. Skies were mostly sunny from the I95 corridor eastward.

While the hi-res NAM is slightly faster then the HRRR with the onset of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, the trend is the same. Our current grids capture this well with an increase in clouds this afternoon south to north as well as increasing PoPs as we move on through the day. Precipitation will be the more scattered variety this afternoon. More widespread precipitation is expected this evening.

Temperatures should top out in the 80s today. Some 90s possible, but overall a slightly cooler day than yesterday.

Away from the coast, winds will be from the SW mainly 5 to 10 mph. Along the beaches, winds will turn more southerly 10 to 15 mph.

Previous discussion . As we head into the day today, The synoptic setup will continue to feature a broad upper trough over much of the east with surface ridging off the coast. There will also continue to be a diffuse south/north oriented front near the coast. This boundary should serve as a conduit for deeper tropical moisture to stream northward into our area especially later in the day.

The convective evolution is a bit tricky today given the boundary in place, however the latest thinking is that it should be mostly dry through midday with the weak surface ridging over the region. However by later in the day, deeper moisture ahead of Isaias will start to stream northward towards the region. This will occur as a strengthening 250 mb jet from central Pennsylvania northward shifts eastward, with our area starting to get into the right entrance region. The upshot is that scattered showers/storms should be on the increase from south to north by late this afternoon into this evening. Given enhanced southwesterly mid- level flow associated with the incoming upper- level trough, some storm organization may occur. Strong to locally damaging winds may occur given steepening low- level lapse rates due to boundary layer heating. Also, given increasing PWATs to around 2+ inches, locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well. Best chances for shower/storms through early this evening looks to be over Delmarva, SE PA, and southern NJ as the moisture approaches from the south.

Highs today will be near average as they will generally be in the 80s to around 90 with lower dew points compared to Sunday as well.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. ***Increasing confidence for significant wind and flooding impacts from Isaias***

***Tropical Storm Warnings now in effect for portions of Delmarva, NJ, and eastern PA***

Short term 11:30 AM update: Confidence is continuing to increase the areas farther inland from the coast will experience strong tropical storm force winds in addition to heavy flooding rains. Therefore, the Tropical Storm Watches have been upgraded to Warnings and expanded farther inland.

Tonight . By this evening, the upper trough to our west will begin to deepen considerably and the jet streak just to our northwest strengthens. We will be in a synoptically favorable quadrant of the jet for divergence and forcing for ascent aloft, the right entrance region. Shortwave energy will become more prevalent aloft ahead of Isaias's arrival. The surface boundary located across the southern portion of the area is forecast to lift north of the area as a secondary surface low passes across the eastern Great Lakes. So chances for showers and storms will increase substantially though the evening and overnight. PWats will be nearing 2+" during this period as well as Isaias begins racing north, so any showers and storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. The Flash Flood Watch starts 10 PM this evening to account for this activity in addition to the rainfall expected from the tropical system itself.

Tuesday . Tropical Storm Isaias will be speeding quickly northward by early Tuesday in response to the aforementioned jet streak. The cyclone will likely be undergoing an extratropical transition as it moves from the Carolinas on Monday toward the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Important to note though, this may not actually weaken the storm and it may even gain strength from the baroclinic support as indicated by the latest ECMWF model run. The strong divergence aloft will promote an enhancement of convection associated with the system and support at least a maintenance of its strength. As far as the track and timing, there isn't been a big change in the forecast track with this update but the trend with guidance has been for a slightly faster timing. As we are getting closer to the arrival of this system, confidence is growing in a track that takes the system NE across the CWA. However even at this time range it's important to not focus on the exact track but rather the potential impacts. It appears the greatest impacts will occur during much of the day Tuesday, particularly late morning and through the evening hours before the storm lifts northeast out of the area.

Multiple hazards are becoming likely with Isaias including, but not limited to, fresh water flooding, coastal flooding/storm surge, strong winds and even isolated tornadoes. The greatest precipitation amounts are forecast to fall right along and just west of the urban and I-95 corridor with 3- 6" of rain with locally higher amounts possible. This will lead to a flash flooding threat, especially for the more urbanized areas and portions of Berks County that saw an excessive amount of rain Sunday morning. In fact the flooding has the potential to be widespread and significant. We also have growing concerns that widespread damaging winds may be an issue. Again, the system will be starting to lose its tropical characteristics but because of the strong baroclinic zone it will be moving into this could actually strengthen it. Winds will initially be from the E/SE then shift to NW behind the system. Sustained winds of 40+ mph will be possible along the coast with gusts potentially reaching over 60 mph here. Farther N/W towards the I-95 corridor, widespread gusts of 45 to 55+ mph are becoming increasingly likely. The upshot is that there could be fairly extensive impacts potentially including widespread power outages. These impacts may be exacerbated by the rainfall loosening the ground soil. Coastal flooding and/or storm surge will be directly dependent on the exact timing and track of the system and this is further described in the section below. Finally, with a favored track near the coast or just inland, this will set up very strong low level shear just ahead of and east of the storm and this could cause a spin up of a few tornadoes Tuesday afternoon. The most favored areas for this are near and S/E of the I-95 corridor.

Tuesday night . As Isaias departs into Tuesday evening, a remnant surface boundary will remain somewhere across the forecast area. We'll still be a in a favorable location for synoptic support for convection with the jet streak still located just to our northwest. So showers and thunderstorms will remain possible into the overnight, although the activity should diminish through time. Cloudy skies will begin to break overnight as well with lows within a few degrees of 70 and humid.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The long term pattern trends quieter as the upper level trough slowly lifts out of the east and high pressure builds in to our north through the latter part of the week. However a diffuse frontal boundary will likely linger near or just south of the region at least through the first part of the weekend. The upshot is most days should feature a mix of sun and clouds with at least some chances for afternoon and early evening shower/storms. However these may not be very widespread most days so much of the time it will be dry with seasonable temperatures and moderate humidity levels. In other words a more typical, benign summer weather pattern.

AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Mainly VFR. However, chances for showers and storms will increase late in the day (mainly after 21z), with brief restrictions possible in their proximity. Any storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts and torrential downpours. Outside of convection, winds generally southwest 5 to 15 kt, with directions likely becoming more southerly by evening. High confidence through mid-afternoon; low confidence thereafter, particularly regarding coverage/timing of precipitation.

Tonight . Gradually deteriorating conditions expected with periods of showers/storms. Brief restrictions likely in proximity to convection. Prevailing CIGs are expected to drop to MVFR from south to north after 06z. Winds likely southerly around 10 kt, but will be erratic and potentially gusty near showers/storms. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Tuesday and Tuesday night . Main impacts from Isaias expected this period, with MVFR/IFR CIGs expected and frequent VSBY restrictions likely with heavy rain and isolated storms. Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt with higher gusts likely, with speeds/gusts much higher near the track of Isaias and near the coast. A quick switch to west or southwest winds is likely by late afternoon or evening as Isaias moves rapidly northeast of the region, with speeds/gusts quickly lowering and precipitation diminishing. High confidence on general evolution, but low confidence on specific impacts at each terminal given track/timing uncertainty with Isaias.

Wednesday . Mainly VFR with west winds 5 to 15 kt. A chance of showers and storms with brief restrictions possible. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night through Friday . Mainly VFR; however, chances of showers/storms exist through the period (especially afternoon/evening), with brief restrictions possible. Fog may develop during the overnight periods, especially in locations where rain falls the previous day. Winds mainly easterly up to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Small craft advisory continues for the Atlantic waters early this morning as seas continue to hover near 5 feet. Seas are expected to subside briefly today and tonight before impacts from Isaias increase quickly by daybreak Tuesday. Winds will generally be southerly at 10 to 20 kt with occasional gusts near advisory levels.

A chance of storms exists late this afternoon and tonight, with gusty winds and locally higher waves in their proximity.

Outlook .

Tuesday through Wednesday morning . Tropical storm watch in effect, with impacts from Isaias expected during this period. Very strong east/southeast winds and rapidly rising seas (to above 10 feet) are expected Tuesday with showery conditions. A rapid switch to southwest winds will occur as Isaias progresses northeast into New England by Tuesday night. Winds should diminish quickly, but seas may linger above 5 feet through Wednesday morning.

Wednesday afternoon through Friday . Sub-advisory winds/seas expected. Occasional chances for showers and storms.

Rip Currents .

A medium-period southeasterly swell will be in place today, with surf conditions likely deteriorating gradually. These conditions favor a moderate risk of dangerous rip currents.

On Tuesday, impacts from Isaias will increase the rip-current risk level to high. In addition, high surf is expected. A rip current risk statement and high surf advisory are in effect for this period.

The rip current risk will likely remain elevated on Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY. Hydro concerns will begin as early as this evening as shower/storms develop across the area ahead of Isaias. Any of these will be capable of producing very heavy rain with at least localized flash flooding possible. The heaviest, steadiest rain with the storm will arrive later tonight through Tuesday. More widespread flash flooding will be an increasing threat by this time. Most susecptible areas will be near and N/W of the I-95 corridor especially since places such as in Berks County have received so much rainfall recently. With Isaias, 3 to 6 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts are expected. Therefore, the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect as again, flooding could be widespread and significant.

In addition to flash flooding, river flooding is also becoming an increasing threat especially in portions of southeastern Pennsylvania which have already been affected by the earlier rounds of heavy rain.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A coastal flood watch remains in effect for the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay in northeast Maryland. There remains considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and exact track of Isaias and its ultimate impacts on Chesapeake Bay. Models remain fairly modest with forecast water levels, but this is a common bias in these regimes, with guidance often performing quite poorly (and much too low). We suspect surge associated with Isaias will likely lead to minor to potentially moderate flooding Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, with potential for large deviations from the timing of high astronomical tide. We decided to leave a large buffer on either side of the time of high tide for this reason.

Isaias will likely accelerate as it moves through the region on Tuesday. This tends to limit coastal flooding impacts in our area, as the duration of onshore flow will be limited. However, models are trending a little stronger with the low (and the associated onshore flow), which is worrisome. The stronger flow may compensate for the short duration. Furthermore, though current forecasts would suggest the strongest surge would occur out of phase with astronomical high tide, uncertainty in the timing suggests this is not guaranteed. For these reasons, suspect minor coastal flooding will be possible along the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware, with isolated moderate flooding possible, especially in northern New Jersey.

For Delaware Bay and the tidal Delaware River, a few factors lead to more elevated concerns. First, a strong southeast fetch will occur in advance of Isaias, which is favorable for coastal flooding in these areas. Second, the timing of high tide more closely aligns with the strongest forecast surge. Third, for the tidal Delaware River, freshwater runoff from anticipated heavy rainfall may exacerbate tidal flooding. Have increased forecast water levels in these areas on Tuesday, with at least minor flooding a possibility.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park Pennsylvania (Station WNG-704) remains off the air.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Tropical Storm Warning for PAZ070-071-101>106. Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM EDT this evening through Tuesday evening for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106. NJ . Tropical Storm Warning for NJZ001-007>010-012>027. Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM EDT this evening through Tuesday evening for NJZ001-007>010-012>027. High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NJZ014-024>026. High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday night for NJZ014-024>026. DE . Tropical Storm Warning for DEZ001>004. Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM EDT this evening through Tuesday evening for DEZ001>004. High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for DEZ004. High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday night for DEZ004. MD . Tropical Storm Warning for MDZ008-012-015-019-020. Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM EDT this evening through Tuesday evening for MDZ008-012-015-019-020. Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for MDZ008-012-015-019-020. MARINE . Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ430-431-450>455.

Synopsis . Fitzsimmons Near Term . Fitzsimmons/Kruzdlo Short Term . Fitzsimmons/MPS/Staarmann Long Term . Fitzsimmons Aviation . CMS Marine . CMS Hydrology . WFO PHI Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 18 mi46 min 75°F 61°F1018.3 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 23 mi46 min W 2.9 G 5.1 82°F 78°F1017.7 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 24 mi46 min SSW 5.1 88°F 1018 hPa71°F
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 28 mi46 min SE 5.1 G 7 1018.1 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 35 mi46 min 81°F 1018.2 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 39 mi46 min E 8.9 G 11 81°F 75°F1017.8 hPa

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ17 mi82 minWSW 710.00 miFair88°F70°F55%1017.4 hPa
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ19 mi20 minWSW 710.00 miFair87°F73°F65%1017.7 hPa
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ20 mi22 minW 1110.00 miFair86°F69°F57%1017.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACY

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE5--SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmSE6SE6SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Swamp Creek, Tuckahoe River, New Jersey
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Cedar Swamp Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:57 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:14 AM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:59 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 05:01 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:30 PM EDT     3.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.52.71.80.90.1-0.10.10.81.62.32.93.33.12.51.810.40.10.411.92.73.53.9

Tide / Current Tables for Beesleys Point, New Jersey
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Beesleys Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:25 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:53 AM EDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:59 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 03:30 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:09 PM EDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.20.4-0.1-00.71.72.63.43.63.42.821.30.60.20.20.923.144.44.23.6

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.