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Marine Weather and Tides Millington, MD Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:18AM

Sunset 5:07PM

Saturday January 18, 2020 8:57 AM EST (13:57 UTC)

Moonrise 1:11AM

Moonset 12:22PM

Illumination 41%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millington, MD

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Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA

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FXUS61 KPHI 181136 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 636 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong high pressure extended from Quebec to the Middle Atlantic coast early this morning. The air mass will continue to move to the east. Low pressure was located in the upper Mississippi River Valley. The low will progress eastward, through the Great Lakes today and tonight, then across northern New England and Nova Scotia on Sunday. The low is forecast to pull a cold front through our region late tonight, followed by a secondary cold front on Sunday night. High pressure is expected to build from the north central states on Monday to the Middle Atlantic coast on Wednesday. The high should drift out to sea late in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 630 am update: 06z model suite not showing much change from the 00z runs. Did note that the NAM/NAM Nest continue to show a considerable amount of sleet late this afternoon northwest of I-95 and mainly west of the Delaware River. This would cut down on snow totals across the southern portions of the advisory area, but an extended period of sleet would likely lead to some tricky travel regardless. A period of sleet may occur in the Philly metro area as well, but expecting amounts to be sub- advisory. Nevertheless, will need to watch this potential closely, as sleet can accumulate quickly enough to generate some hazardous travel.

Notably, the NAM is also trending toward a farther east progression of freezing rain, nosing into at least Berks/Chester Counties. With the strength of warm advection in play (plus the likely too warm near-surface temperatures in general), did feel compelled to add a chance of freezing rain for a time late this afternoon and early this evening generally in the Reading/Pottstown/Coatesville areas. Icing would be minimal (and would be short-lived given the general warming trend through the evening).

Previous discussion .

A surface low in the central Plains will be lifting northeastward today toward the Great Lakes region, attendant to a fairly progressive midlevel trough moving through the central U.S. Strong warm advection will be occurring downstream of the surface low, with widespread precipitation to our west moving in by late this morning. Antecedent conditions are cold, with very dry low levels. As expected, models are a little too high with surface dew points this morning, and I continue to suspect that models are a little too aggressive saturating the low-level environment as the first wave of precipitation enters the region late this morning. Nevertheless, anticipating at least a period of snow with this first wave late this morning into early this afternoon, followed possibly by a bit of a lull (especially in the southern half to two-thirds of the CWA).

The stronger ascent associated with the approaching midlevel vort max arrives this afternoon, with precipitation rapidly increasing in this regime. With very strong 850-mb flow entering the region in advance of the trough, expect rapidly warming low-level profiles. However, initial wet-bulbing effects as well as stubborn lingering effects of the surface high affecting the region early this morning may keep low levels a little colder than general model consensus. As a result, think precipitation type will be predominantly snow north of the I-78 corridor and predominantly rain in central/southern Delmarva and far southern New Jersey. In between, a wintry mix of snow and sleet may occur, with precipitation types augmented by variations in intensity. The most intense precipitation rates should be from mid-to-late afternoon, which is the period where sleet is most probable. The larger overall trend, however, will be a transition to rain from south to north from mid-afternoon to early evening.

The increasingly marginal surface temperatures and potential variations in precipitation type lower confidence in snow totals. However, at least models have been reasonably consistent with the surface low track, precipitation timing, and QPF. With the inhibiting effects of antecedent dry near-surface air, potential periods of sleet, and general low-level warming, my inclination was to stay a little below model consensus with snow totals. The result is a forecast close to continuity, with totals near or below 1 inch along the I-95/I-195/I-295 corridors, 1-3 inches near the Fall Line, and 2-5 inches generally northwest of a Reading to Morristown line. One important note, however, is that if sleet is much more prevalent (a distinct possibility, as per the NAM/NAM Nest/WRF-NMM), lower overall snow totals may not translate to fewer impacts. Additionally, should sleet be less prevalent and temperatures remain a little colder than forecast, totals may be slightly higher across the board.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/. 630 am update: No changes to the forecast at this time. However, I continue to be worried about the post-precipitation environment, generally in the 02z to 07z time frame, where the low levels may remain saturated enough to generate some drizzle. Temperatures will be near freezing north of I-78, so some light ice accretion may occur. Confidence remains too low to add mention in the forecast, with primary impacts still expected to be associated with the afternoon/evening snow. Will pass along to the next shift, however.

Previous discussion .

As warming continues into the evening hours via continued warm/moist advection, precipitation will continue to trend toward rain toward the I-78 corridor. However, precipitation will likely shut off fairly quickly once the midlevel vort max moves through during the evening and advection becomes neutral. Most models shut off precipitation after 03z Sunday. As such, have moved up the expiration time of the winter weather advisory to 10 pm. Lingering rain/snow showers may occur the rest of the night (predominantly north of I-76), but most measurable precipitation should be over after midnight.

Will need to watch for some fog/drizzle potential after the precipitation shuts down. This will be dependent to some degree on winds (which may remain elevated as the surface low remains well north of the area). Some guidance, however, is suggesting a period of lighter winds. Model soundings keep the lowest levels near saturation, which may allow for some patchy fog and/or drizzle. Should this occur in the Poconos, the drizzle would likely freeze on contact. For now, not confident enough to mention (especially since there remain at least slight chances of snow showers anyway). However, will continue to monitor for this potential.

Temperatures will be fairly steady overnight after a slow rise during the evening hours.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Strong low pressure departing to our northeast, and high pressure approaching from the northwest and west will keep our region in a cold advection pattern from Sunday into Tuesday.

A gusty west wind is anticipated for Sunday. The wind direction is forecast to shift to the northwest on Sunday night with the arrival of a secondary cold front. We could see a few snow showers and scattered flurries from late Sunday into Monday, especially in eastern Pennsylvania, and in northern and central New Jersey.

The center of the high is forecast to settle in the vicinity of the Middle Atlantic coast for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing a mostly clear sky and dry weather conditions to our region.

Near normal temperatures are expected for Sunday, with readings falling below normal for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures should rebound slightly above normal for Thursday, as the air mass continues to modify.

The high should begin to move out to sea on Thursday night and Friday. The surface flow is expected to become southerly and temperatures will likely remain above normal. There may be an increase in cloud cover as low pressure begins to approach from the west on Friday.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR conditions to start, but clouds will be lowering this morning. A period of snow may occur from late morning into early afternoon, but confidence is rather low on resultant CIGs/VSBYs given residual dry air near the surface. Precipitation will increase during the afternoon, with rapid deterioration to IFR conditions expected after 18z. Precip type will mainly be rain at MIV/ACY, though a period of sleet/snow may occur initially. At the Philly terminals, a transition from snow to sleet to rain is forecast (though types may vary frequently between 19z and 00z). At RDG/ABE, snow is expected initially, though transition to sleet and freezing rain is possible with time. Surface winds are expected to become southerly around 10 kt by afternoon. Southwest LLWS is forecast to develop late in the day.

Confidence is high with winds, moderate with low-level wind shear, moderate with precipitation timing, and low with onset of sub-VFR conditions and timing precipitation type transitions.

Tonight . Prolonged sub-VFR expected, as precipitation gradually winds down between 02z and 06z. CIGs/VSBYs may remain MVFR/IFR for much of the night, with improvement to VFR possible toward daybreak. Winds becoming southwest around 10 kt. Southwest LLWS in the evening. Moderate overall confidence.

OUTLOOK . Sunday . Mainly VFR. West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts of 25 to 30 knots. High confidence.

Sunday night . Mainly VFR. West to northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. High confidence.

Monday . Mainly VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. High confidence.

Monday night and Tuesday . VFR. Northwest wind around 10 knots. High confidence.

Tuesday night and Wednesday . VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

MARINE. Conditions are currently below small craft advisory criteria. North or northeast winds early this morning will quickly become southerly by this afternoon and increase to near advisory thresholds late in the day. Seas will build quickly in this regime as well. Expecting advisory conditions to become established near or just after 21z (4 pm) on the Atlantic waters. Though somewhat marginal, a few gusts to advisory criteria may occur on the mouth of Delaware Bay as well. As a result, have hoisted a small craft advisory for these areas from late this afternoon onward.

Seas are expected to build to 5 to 7 feet tonight, with 20-25 kt south to southwest winds with occasional gusts to 30 kt. Sub- advisory conditions are expected on upper portions of Delaware Bay through tonight.

Precipitation should move in this afternoon on the waters, possibly as a mix of rain and snow to start with (before transitioning to all rain). Visibility restrictions can be expected. Rain should begin tapering off by midnight or shortly after.

OUTLOOK . Sunday and Sunday night . A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for a west to northwest wind gusting around 25 to 30 knots.

Monday . Northwest wind gusts around 25 to 30 knots are expected.

Monday night . Northwest wind gusts around 25 knots are possible.

Tuesday through Wednesday . No marine headlines are anticipated.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-106. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for NJZ001-007>010-012-015. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ431-450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ430.

Synopsis . Iovino Near Term . CMS Short Term . CMS Long Term . Iovino Aviation . CMS/Iovino Marine . CMS/Iovino

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD	19 mi	64 min		25°F	41°F		1035 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD	22 mi	64 min		26°F	40°F		1035.9 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE	25 mi	64 min		24°F	41°F		1033.9 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ	25 mi	58 min		25°F	43°F		1035 hPa (-3.0)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE	26 mi	64 min		24°F	45°F		1034.4 hPa
CPVM2	34 mi	58 min		31°F
FSNM2	36 mi	70 min		28°F			1034.1 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD	37 mi	58 min		28°F			1035.4 hPa (-2.2)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD	39 mi	58 min		31°F			1034.4 hPa (-2.4)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD	39 mi	58 min					1034.8 hPa (-2.2)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD	40 mi	58 min	SSE 14 G 15	30°F	42°F		1035.9 hPa (-2.2)	12°F
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE	43 mi	64 min		30°F			1035.1 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA	44 mi	64 min		24°F	41°F		1034.2 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD	49 mi	58 min					1036.2 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD

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9 AM

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7 PM

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9 PM

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Last 24hr

N11 G21

N12 G18

N11 G22

N11 G18

N14 G19

NW11 G18

NW7 G12

N8 G13

NW6 G9

N4 G7

NW3

NW2

N3

N2

N1

NE1

E5

NE2

NE3

NE2

E3

E1

SE2

SE3 G6

1 day ago

NW16 G25

NW17 G21

NW10 G20

NW12 G17

NW14 G21

NW12 G23

NW18 G24

NW15 G22

NW16 G23

NW13 G23

NW17 G22

NW11 G19

NW13 G17

NW11 G16

NW12 G18

NW9 G16

NW12 G17

NW11 G17

NW14 G20

NW15 G19

N11 G18

NW10 G16

NW11 G15

N11 G17

2 days ago

E1

N3

N5 G10

NW4 G8

NW5

N2

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E2

SW1

E2

SE2

SE1

SE2

SE1

SE4

S3 G6

SW3

S4

S2

W2

W3

W6 G10

W4

W5 G9

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Dover Air Force Base, DE	21 mi	62 min	ESE 6	10.00 mi	Overcast	28°F	15°F	60%	1034.9 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD	23 mi	2 hrs	E 4	10.00 mi	Overcast	25°F	11°F	57%	1035.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDOV

Wind History from DOV (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

NW18 G27

NW20 G25

NW17 G25

NW21 G25

NW18 G24

N15

NW9 G16

NW12

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NW6

NW9

NW8

NW7

NW6

NW8

N6

N5

N5

N3

NW4

N5

NE5

NE3

SE6

1 day ago

W16 G24

W20 G30

NW20 G29

W17 G25

W21 G29

W23 G38

NW24 G32

NW15 G22

NW16 G23

NW17 G29

W15 G23

W17 G24

W14 G20

W16 G22

NW18 G23

NW16 G24

NW16 G21

NW12 G20

NW13

NW15 G24

NW20 G29

NW20 G27

NW17

NW14

2 days ago

NW7

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Calm

W6

Calm

E6

E6

SE5

SE4

SE5

SE6

S6

S7

S8

SE8

S11

S7

S7

S7

S10

W4

SW10

W9

W16 G23

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Tide / Current Tables for Millington, Maryland

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Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (8,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE

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