Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Millington, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:07PM Saturday January 18, 2020 8:57 AM EST (13:57 UTC) Moonrise 1:11AMMoonset 12:22PM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 639 Am Est Sat Jan 18 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm est this afternoon through this evening...
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less...building to 2 ft late. Snow this morning, then rain and sleet this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this morning.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain likely or a chance of drizzle.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ500 639 Am Est Sat Jan 18 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move across the southern great lakes today and into new england tonight. The low will exit across northern new england Sunday, followed by another area of arctic high pressure for early next week. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Sunday into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millington, MD
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location: 39.26, -75.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 181136 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 636 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong high pressure extended from Quebec to the Middle Atlantic coast early this morning. The air mass will continue to move to the east. Low pressure was located in the upper Mississippi River Valley. The low will progress eastward, through the Great Lakes today and tonight, then across northern New England and Nova Scotia on Sunday. The low is forecast to pull a cold front through our region late tonight, followed by a secondary cold front on Sunday night. High pressure is expected to build from the north central states on Monday to the Middle Atlantic coast on Wednesday. The high should drift out to sea late in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 630 am update: 06z model suite not showing much change from the 00z runs. Did note that the NAM/NAM Nest continue to show a considerable amount of sleet late this afternoon northwest of I-95 and mainly west of the Delaware River. This would cut down on snow totals across the southern portions of the advisory area, but an extended period of sleet would likely lead to some tricky travel regardless. A period of sleet may occur in the Philly metro area as well, but expecting amounts to be sub- advisory. Nevertheless, will need to watch this potential closely, as sleet can accumulate quickly enough to generate some hazardous travel.

Notably, the NAM is also trending toward a farther east progression of freezing rain, nosing into at least Berks/Chester Counties. With the strength of warm advection in play (plus the likely too warm near-surface temperatures in general), did feel compelled to add a chance of freezing rain for a time late this afternoon and early this evening generally in the Reading/Pottstown/Coatesville areas. Icing would be minimal (and would be short-lived given the general warming trend through the evening).

Previous discussion .

A surface low in the central Plains will be lifting northeastward today toward the Great Lakes region, attendant to a fairly progressive midlevel trough moving through the central U.S. Strong warm advection will be occurring downstream of the surface low, with widespread precipitation to our west moving in by late this morning. Antecedent conditions are cold, with very dry low levels. As expected, models are a little too high with surface dew points this morning, and I continue to suspect that models are a little too aggressive saturating the low-level environment as the first wave of precipitation enters the region late this morning. Nevertheless, anticipating at least a period of snow with this first wave late this morning into early this afternoon, followed possibly by a bit of a lull (especially in the southern half to two-thirds of the CWA).

The stronger ascent associated with the approaching midlevel vort max arrives this afternoon, with precipitation rapidly increasing in this regime. With very strong 850-mb flow entering the region in advance of the trough, expect rapidly warming low-level profiles. However, initial wet-bulbing effects as well as stubborn lingering effects of the surface high affecting the region early this morning may keep low levels a little colder than general model consensus. As a result, think precipitation type will be predominantly snow north of the I-78 corridor and predominantly rain in central/southern Delmarva and far southern New Jersey. In between, a wintry mix of snow and sleet may occur, with precipitation types augmented by variations in intensity. The most intense precipitation rates should be from mid-to-late afternoon, which is the period where sleet is most probable. The larger overall trend, however, will be a transition to rain from south to north from mid-afternoon to early evening.

The increasingly marginal surface temperatures and potential variations in precipitation type lower confidence in snow totals. However, at least models have been reasonably consistent with the surface low track, precipitation timing, and QPF. With the inhibiting effects of antecedent dry near-surface air, potential periods of sleet, and general low-level warming, my inclination was to stay a little below model consensus with snow totals. The result is a forecast close to continuity, with totals near or below 1 inch along the I-95/I-195/I-295 corridors, 1-3 inches near the Fall Line, and 2-5 inches generally northwest of a Reading to Morristown line. One important note, however, is that if sleet is much more prevalent (a distinct possibility, as per the NAM/NAM Nest/WRF-NMM), lower overall snow totals may not translate to fewer impacts. Additionally, should sleet be less prevalent and temperatures remain a little colder than forecast, totals may be slightly higher across the board.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/. 630 am update: No changes to the forecast at this time. However, I continue to be worried about the post-precipitation environment, generally in the 02z to 07z time frame, where the low levels may remain saturated enough to generate some drizzle. Temperatures will be near freezing north of I-78, so some light ice accretion may occur. Confidence remains too low to add mention in the forecast, with primary impacts still expected to be associated with the afternoon/evening snow. Will pass along to the next shift, however.

Previous discussion .

As warming continues into the evening hours via continued warm/moist advection, precipitation will continue to trend toward rain toward the I-78 corridor. However, precipitation will likely shut off fairly quickly once the midlevel vort max moves through during the evening and advection becomes neutral. Most models shut off precipitation after 03z Sunday. As such, have moved up the expiration time of the winter weather advisory to 10 pm. Lingering rain/snow showers may occur the rest of the night (predominantly north of I-76), but most measurable precipitation should be over after midnight.

Will need to watch for some fog/drizzle potential after the precipitation shuts down. This will be dependent to some degree on winds (which may remain elevated as the surface low remains well north of the area). Some guidance, however, is suggesting a period of lighter winds. Model soundings keep the lowest levels near saturation, which may allow for some patchy fog and/or drizzle. Should this occur in the Poconos, the drizzle would likely freeze on contact. For now, not confident enough to mention (especially since there remain at least slight chances of snow showers anyway). However, will continue to monitor for this potential.

Temperatures will be fairly steady overnight after a slow rise during the evening hours.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Strong low pressure departing to our northeast, and high pressure approaching from the northwest and west will keep our region in a cold advection pattern from Sunday into Tuesday.

A gusty west wind is anticipated for Sunday. The wind direction is forecast to shift to the northwest on Sunday night with the arrival of a secondary cold front. We could see a few snow showers and scattered flurries from late Sunday into Monday, especially in eastern Pennsylvania, and in northern and central New Jersey.

The center of the high is forecast to settle in the vicinity of the Middle Atlantic coast for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing a mostly clear sky and dry weather conditions to our region.

Near normal temperatures are expected for Sunday, with readings falling below normal for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures should rebound slightly above normal for Thursday, as the air mass continues to modify.

The high should begin to move out to sea on Thursday night and Friday. The surface flow is expected to become southerly and temperatures will likely remain above normal. There may be an increase in cloud cover as low pressure begins to approach from the west on Friday.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR conditions to start, but clouds will be lowering this morning. A period of snow may occur from late morning into early afternoon, but confidence is rather low on resultant CIGs/VSBYs given residual dry air near the surface. Precipitation will increase during the afternoon, with rapid deterioration to IFR conditions expected after 18z. Precip type will mainly be rain at MIV/ACY, though a period of sleet/snow may occur initially. At the Philly terminals, a transition from snow to sleet to rain is forecast (though types may vary frequently between 19z and 00z). At RDG/ABE, snow is expected initially, though transition to sleet and freezing rain is possible with time. Surface winds are expected to become southerly around 10 kt by afternoon. Southwest LLWS is forecast to develop late in the day.

Confidence is high with winds, moderate with low-level wind shear, moderate with precipitation timing, and low with onset of sub-VFR conditions and timing precipitation type transitions.

Tonight . Prolonged sub-VFR expected, as precipitation gradually winds down between 02z and 06z. CIGs/VSBYs may remain MVFR/IFR for much of the night, with improvement to VFR possible toward daybreak. Winds becoming southwest around 10 kt. Southwest LLWS in the evening. Moderate overall confidence.

OUTLOOK . Sunday . Mainly VFR. West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts of 25 to 30 knots. High confidence.

Sunday night . Mainly VFR. West to northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. High confidence.

Monday . Mainly VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. High confidence.

Monday night and Tuesday . VFR. Northwest wind around 10 knots. High confidence.

Tuesday night and Wednesday . VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

MARINE. Conditions are currently below small craft advisory criteria. North or northeast winds early this morning will quickly become southerly by this afternoon and increase to near advisory thresholds late in the day. Seas will build quickly in this regime as well. Expecting advisory conditions to become established near or just after 21z (4 pm) on the Atlantic waters. Though somewhat marginal, a few gusts to advisory criteria may occur on the mouth of Delaware Bay as well. As a result, have hoisted a small craft advisory for these areas from late this afternoon onward.

Seas are expected to build to 5 to 7 feet tonight, with 20-25 kt south to southwest winds with occasional gusts to 30 kt. Sub- advisory conditions are expected on upper portions of Delaware Bay through tonight.

Precipitation should move in this afternoon on the waters, possibly as a mix of rain and snow to start with (before transitioning to all rain). Visibility restrictions can be expected. Rain should begin tapering off by midnight or shortly after.

OUTLOOK . Sunday and Sunday night . A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for a west to northwest wind gusting around 25 to 30 knots.

Monday . Northwest wind gusts around 25 to 30 knots are expected.

Monday night . Northwest wind gusts around 25 knots are possible.

Tuesday through Wednesday . No marine headlines are anticipated.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-106. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for NJZ001-007>010-012-015. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ431-450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ430.

Synopsis . Iovino Near Term . CMS Short Term . CMS Long Term . Iovino Aviation . CMS/Iovino Marine . CMS/Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 19 mi64 min 25°F 41°F1035 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 22 mi64 min 26°F 40°F1035.9 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 25 mi64 min 24°F 41°F1033.9 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 25 mi58 min 25°F 43°F1035 hPa (-3.0)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 26 mi64 min 24°F 45°F1034.4 hPa
CPVM2 34 mi58 min 31°F
FSNM2 36 mi70 min 28°F 1034.1 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 37 mi58 min 28°F 1035.4 hPa (-2.2)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 39 mi58 min 31°F 1034.4 hPa (-2.4)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 39 mi58 min 1034.8 hPa (-2.2)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 40 mi58 min SSE 14 G 15 30°F 42°F1035.9 hPa (-2.2)12°F
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 43 mi64 min 30°F 1035.1 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 44 mi64 min 24°F 41°F1034.2 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 49 mi58 min 1036.2 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dover Air Force Base, DE21 mi62 minESE 610.00 miOvercast28°F15°F60%1034.9 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD23 mi2 hrsE 410.00 miOvercast25°F11°F57%1035.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDOV

Wind History from DOV (wind in knots)
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NW12--NW6NW9NW8NW7NW6NW8N6N5N5N3NW4N5NE5NE3SE6
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2 days agoNW7--CalmW6CalmE6E6SE5SE4SE5SE6S6S7S8SE8S11S7S7S7S10W4SW10W9W16
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Tide / Current Tables for Millington, Maryland
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Millington
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:24 AM EST     1.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:38 AM EST     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:21 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:23 PM EST     1.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:51 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.21.51.51.30.90.4-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.40.20.91.51.91.81.61.30.90.60.20-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:54 AM EST     2.05 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:37 AM EST     -0.02 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:59 AM EST     -2.11 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:56 AM EST     0.03 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:21 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:40 PM EST     2.02 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:55 PM EST     -0.08 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:06 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:26 PM EST     -1.55 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:24 PM EST     0.06 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.921.81.1-0.9-1.6-2-2.1-2-1.7-1.20.31.41.921.71.2-0.3-1.2-1.5-1.5-1.2-0.60.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.