Monday, September28, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Longport, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 6:46PM Monday September 28, 2020 1:09 AM EDT (05:09 UTC) Moonrise 5:44PMMoonset 3:28AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1002 Pm Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Overnight..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers late this evening, then a slight chance of showers. Patchy fog. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers early in the morning. Patchy fog early in the morning. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until late afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..N winds around 5 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ400 1002 Pm Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Weak low pressure off the coast will track into new england overnight. To our west, a cold front will move into pennsylvania Monday. A few weak areas of low pressure riding north along the front, will slow down on Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves through the forecast area. Another cold front will arrive Thursday night into Friday. In it's wake, cooler air will settle in over the region into next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Longport , NJ
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location: 39.28, -74.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 280451 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1251 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move into western Pennsylvania tonight. A few areas of low pressure riding north along the front, will slow down the progress of the front as it moves through our region Tuesday through Wednesday. Another cold front will arrive Thursday night into Friday. In it's wake, cooler air will settle in over the region into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Minor changes from the earlier update. Scattered showers continue across Delmarva, southern NJ and into parts of SE PA. These showers are circulating around the disturbance off the coast. Another weak disturbance will move across the region later tonight, so we will keep the slight chc or chc pops in the fcst as is. The overall humid air mass will continue so low clouds and fog will be across the area overnight. Few changes were needed to temps/dew points or winds.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/. Monday will start the day mostly cloudy with a continuing chance for some showers as the aformentioned upper level disturbance will still be moving through. Any showers should mostly come to an end by the afternoon from south to north as the wave moves out. Otherwise, it will be similar to today in that mostly cloudy skies in the morning should give way to at least some sun in the afternoon. With the overall southerly flow in place, it will be another fairly warm and muggy day with highs mainly in the 70s to around 80. It will be coolest right near the coast as well as over the southern Poconos where it may only be in the low to mid 70s and warmest over interior Delmarva as well as the urban corridor.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/.

Overview: The focus of the long term is a slow moving cold front expected between Tuesday night into early Thursday. There will be multiple areas of low pressure riding north along the front. During this period, heavy rain is possible. Another cold front will move through late Thursday into Friday. Cooler air will filter in behind these fronts.

Details:

Tuesday and Wednesday . A cold front will approach the region through this period. The front will initially be associated with a surface low centered over Ontario/Quebec. However, another low is expected to develop along the front over the southeastern U.S. in response to a digging mid level trough. This should lead to the front slowing, and possibly even stalling over our region.

What has changed: The 00Z GFS is back to being a more progressive solution, with the front off shore by early Wednesday morning. If this solution comes true, we will still have a threat for heavy rain on Tuesday, but the threat for heavy rain on Wednesday will decrease significantly. Given the poor run to run consistency, and the lack of agreement among the main operational models, have stayed close to the previous forecast and a blend of 00 and 18Z guidance.

Timing: Showers are expected to begin ahead of the arrival of the front. The front should enter Eastern PA no later than mid day Tuesday. As far as how long it will take to progress off shore, it could be off shore as early as late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning, or if it stalls over our region, it may not be off shore until late in the day Wednesday.

Hazards: The main hazard is still expected to be heavy rain. The longer it takes the front to cross the region, the longer the heavy rain could last, and the more likely it is to lead to flash flooding concerns. Precipitable water values over the coastal plains are likely already well above normal with an observed value from Long Island of 1.5 inches which is right around the 90th percentile for late September. Other nearby soundings (from Wallops Island and IAD) were right around one inch which is only slightly above normal. The southerly return flow has yet to become established, so expect pwat values to increase further before Tuesday. Additionally the warm cloud layer will likely be very deep for late September. Also, low and mid level flow could be close to parallel of the front (if it stalls), which could increase the threat for training storms or showers. Still have too much uncertainty with the timing of the front to issue a flash flood watch, but will continue with a mention in the HWO. As for the threat of severe storms, models continue to show significant effective shear (30 to 40 kt). However, guidance is in poor agreement as to how much instability will develop (anything from MU CAPE values near 0 to near 1000 J/kg). Even if sufficient instability develops, it will likely be only for a brief window on Tuesday afternoon. Thus, think the threat for severe storms is still very limited.

Thursday and Friday . In the wake of the main cold front, cooler air settles in over the region. A secondary cold front is expected Thursday night into Friday morning. However, dry air advection beginning in the wake of the earlier front should limit rain chances with this front.

Saturday and Sunday . A trailing mid level short wave trough could lead to some rain in this period, but as with the Thursday and Friday period, moisture could be a limiting factor. Even if we do get rain, it should be isolated at most.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Conditions deteriorating to predominate MVFR and then IFR by 03/05z time frame. Low cigs due to stratus will be the main issue but some vsby restrictions at times too. Winds mainly southeast/south around 5 knots or less. Moderate confidence overall but low confidence on the exact timing of category changes.

Monday . Conditions improving through the morning with mainly VFR expected by afternoon. Winds mainly southerly at 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence overall but low confidence on the exact timing of category changes.

Monday Night . Prevailing VFR conditions are expected, though brief reductions to MVFR conditions are possible with small chances of rain showers. Southerly winds of 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Tuesday and Wednesday . A cold front will approach the area from the west Tuesday with southerly winds increasing from 10 to 15 kts. Prevailing MVFR ceilings are likely with transient IFR conditions in periods of heavy rain. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms embedded in the larger area of showers. By the later half of Wednesday, winds should be northwesterly at 10 to 15 kt in the wake of the cold front. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on the details.

Thursday . Lingering showers, especially in the morning could result in MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected with southwesterly winds around 10 kts and gusts up to 20 kts. Moderate confidence.

Friday . Mainly VFR. West winds 5 to 10 kts. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Winds and seas are expected to stay below Small Craft advisory criteria through Monday however winds may gust up to 20 knots Monday afternoon with seas increasing to around 4 feet.

Monday night . Winds and seas will approach SCA criteria.

Outlook .

Tuesday and Wednesday . Seas ans southwesterly winds will increase ahead of a cold front on Wednesday night. SCA conditions, especially for seas are possible.

Thursday and Friday . Decreasing winds and seas will fall below SCA criteria.

Rip Currents .

There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents both Monday and Tuesday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Johnson Near Term . Fitzsimmons Short Term . Fitzsimmons Long Term . Johnson Aviation . Fitzsimmons/Johnson Marine . Fitzsimmons/Johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 8 mi52 min 69°F 69°F1014.1 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 18 mi100 min S 1.9 71°F 1014 hPa70°F
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 31 mi52 min SSE 8 G 9.9 69°F 68°F1013.2 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 36 mi58 min SSW 12 G 13 1013.7 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 44 mi52 min 70°F 1013.4 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 46 mi52 min SSW 4.1 G 7 70°F 69°F1013.7 hPa

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ13 mi76 minSSW 73.00 miFog/Mist70°F69°F97%1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACY

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3CalmCalmE3Calm3NE4NE5NE4NE6E4NE4NE6E8E8E9E6NE8NE3E3CalmS3S7S6
1 day agoCalmCalmE4CalmE4NE4E6E9E9E10E7S3SE7S5S9
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW7SW6SW3SW4SW5S6S4SW5SW5SW7SW4SW4S3CalmCalmS3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City, 9th Street Bridge, New Jersey
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Ocean City
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Mon -- 12:24 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:40 AM EDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:41 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:56 PM EDT     4.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.40.81.52.333.53.63.32.71.91.20.60.50.91.62.43.33.94.23.93.22.31.4

Tide / Current Tables for Pleasantville, Lakes Bay, Great Egg Harbor Inlet, New Jersey
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Pleasantville
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:10 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:44 AM EDT     3.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:23 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:02 PM EDT     4.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.30.51.32.23.13.843.73.12.41.710.50.61.32.33.34.24.54.33.72.92

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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