Tuesday, May11, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Point of Rocks, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:14PM Tuesday May 11, 2021 6:53 AM EDT (10:53 UTC) Moonrise 5:03AMMoonset 7:16PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 437 Am Edt Tue May 11 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm edt this afternoon through this evening...
Rest of the overnight..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ500 437 Am Edt Tue May 11 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the waters this afternoon. High pressure over the upper midwest will then expand toward the area Wednesday, settling over the east coast late in the week. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point of Rocks, MD
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location: 39.28, -77.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 110756 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 356 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021

SYNOPSIS. A reinforcing cold front will cross the region today. High pressure will build toward the region Wednesday, with the high building overhead during latter portion of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A weak piece of mid to upper level shortwave energy is sliding across the region this morning. This is resulting in some substantial cloud cover for most. In turn, this has kept temperatures warmer than they could have gotten tonight. Most areas are in the 40s, and even some low 50s once you get down towards Charlottesville and the Shenandoah Valley. For that reason, did come up a couple of degrees in these areas, as they were much slower to cool than the previous forecast.

Otherwise, should remain dry the first half of today, with lingering clouds. A cold front will push across the region later today, ushering in cooler and drier air into the region. But that won't come without the chance for some showers this afternoon though. These should be of little to no consequence though, with only some brief gusty winds possible (perhaps up to 30 mph or so at best).

The main weather concern will be for the potential of frost/freeze tonight. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for our furthest west zones along/west of the Allegheny Front. These may need to be upgraded later today. Additionally, with lows into the 30s all the way to the western slopes of the Blue Ridge, could even see some frost headlines introduced as well, particularly in eastern WV and the Shenandoah Valley.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Zonal flow aloft will be maintained on Wednesday as the upper low to our north starts to move off to the east. At the surface, high pressure will build toward the area from the Great Lakes. The combination of building high pressure and zonal flow aloft will lead to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will hold below normal (highs in the 60s) as northwesterly winds in advance of the approaching high continue to transport seasonably cool air into the area. As high pressure builds closer still Wednesday night, wind may go weak enough for some spots to decouple. As a result, frost/freeze headlines may potentially be needed again to the west of the Blue Ridge. With some areas potentially colder than Tuesday night's lows if we can radiate well enough.

Brief height rises expected Thursday as a weak ridge builds in aloft. Meanwhile, surface high pressure remains in control. This should result in a mostly dry and mostly sunny day with highs a few degrees warmer, perhaps reaching the upper 60s to near 70.

Clouds increase Thursday night, and rain chances will return, as another trough builds in from the west. A good bit warmer Thursday night as a result, with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s for most outside of the highest ridges which should reach the mid 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. For Friday and Saturday, longwave troughing will still encompass the eastern US. Sprawling surface high pressure will be near the east coast, though becoming somewhat more disorganized as perturbations in the northwest flow aloft disrupt the weak surface gradient. These shortwaves could also spark a few showers during the afternoon hours each day, with the best chance over the mountains. A thunderstorm isn't totally out of the question due to steep lapse rates, but instability is forecast to be very weak with dew points in the 30s-40s. Temperatures will remain a little below normal.

Model solutions begin to diverge for Sunday into Monday. Overall heights should be rising ahead of a trough digging into the southwestern US. A warm frontal zone will be lurking over the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. If the forcing associated with this front is faster, some showers could develop Sunday. However, model consensus suggests a (slightly) higher chance of rain will come on Monday with the warm front in the vicinity. With a wide range of potential frontal positions, confidence is low on precipitation chances and temperatures by Monday. Temperatures somewhere around seasonal averages appear most likely.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR conditions and northwesterly winds are expected through Wednesday, then turning more northerly on Thursday, but lighter. Winds today could gust to 20-25 knots this afternoon in the wake of a reinforcing cold front. A brief shower this afternoon as a cold front passes could cause a brief reduction in VSBYs. Winds on Wednesday could gusty in the 15-20 knot range, but we remain dry on Wednesday.

Prevailing VFR conditions along with light winds can be expected Friday and Saturday as high pressure settles over the area. A brief isolated shower could occur during the afternoon each day, but confidence is low at this time.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for this afternoon, as a cold front pushes through. Should see a period of SCA winds in its wake. Additionally, there will be some showers around this afternoon, which could bring some gusty winds along with them. Wind field isn't extremely impressive, so not currently anticipating a widespread SMW type event like we saw a few days back.

With the region locked into NW flow, winds will be gusty at times through Wednesday, before high pressure moves more directly overhead Wednesday night into Thursday. SCA conditions will be possible at times again on Wednesday, but should not occur on Wednesday night into Thursday.

Light and variable winds are expected Friday and Saturday as a large area of high pressure settles over the east coast.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for MDZ001. VA . Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for VAZ503. WV . Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for WVZ501-505. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>534-536>543. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ535.

SYNOPSIS . CJL NEAR TERM . CJL SHORT TERM . CJL/RCM LONG TERM . ADS AVIATION . ADS/CJL MARINE . ADS/CJL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi59 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 55°F 65°F1019.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 50 mi59 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 56°F 60°F1018.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 53 mi59 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 56°F 1018.7 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frederick Municipal Airport, MD13 mi78 minN 010.00 miFair45°F43°F93%1019 hPa
Leesburg / Godfrey, VA14 mi58 minNW 310.00 miFair50°F41°F71%1019.6 hPa
Gaithersburg - Montgomery County Airport, MD21 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair47°F38°F71%1020.6 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA23 mi61 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F40°F77%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFDK

Wind History from FDK (wind in knots)
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CalmNW3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE3SW9CalmCalmSE3CalmSE6S8S6SE6SE3CalmCalm--N3CalmN4NE3NW8SE3N5NW10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNW3NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:25 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:19 AM EDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:01 PM EDT     New Moon
Tue -- 04:15 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:51 PM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.20.80.50.511.82.63.13.43.32.92.31.61.10.60.30.511.82.42.82.92.6

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:20 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:14 AM EDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:01 PM EDT     New Moon
Tue -- 04:10 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:46 PM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.10.70.50.61.11.92.63.23.43.32.82.21.61.10.60.30.51.11.82.42.82.92.6

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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