Friday, April3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Essex, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 7:33PM Friday April 3, 2020 6:16 PM EDT (22:16 UTC) Moonrise 1:17PMMoonset 3:15AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 437 Pm Edt Fri Apr 3 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight edt tonight...
Rest of this afternoon..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tue..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 437 Pm Edt Fri Apr 3 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Gusty winds will diminish this evening as high pressure moves overhead. High pressure will remain in control of the region through the weekend delivering dry conditions. A weak cold front will follow late Sunday. The front will stall nearby Monday into Tuesday before a low pressure system approaches from the midwest Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essex, MD
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location: 39.29, -76.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 031916 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 316 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley through through Sunday morning. A weak cold front will move in Sunday night. The front will stall nearby on Monday and continue into Tuesday, before a low pressure system approaches from the midwest on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. At 18Z, surface wind gusts 30-35kts were still being observed across the region. The winds will slacken as the afternoon wears on. Satellite observation shows at 18Z a cumulus field developing along and east of I-95. Expecting this sky cover trend to continue during the remaining daytime hours today, along with mid-to-high clouds directly associated with the system at sea. Cumulus field will diminish starting around 6 PM, but mid- to-high clouds will remain overnight, mainly north of the Potomac River.

H5 height rises will begin and continue overnight, with low temps about 5F deg above normals. No rainfall expected before dawn CWA-wide.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. H5 height rises will continue through Saturday night. The 03/12Z ECWMF has a H5 inverted trough spinning around the low pressure system well out to sea, which may trigger isolated showers Saturday morning. Otherwise, Saturday should be rain- free with noticeably lighter winds and temperatures near normal for early April.

Sunday will see a weak cold front approaching from the west. The bulk of the daytime should be dry, with increasing chances of showers mid-to-late afternoon and then disappering by sunset. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday's highs, with winds being light once again. Sunday night dry and seasonably warm above freezing.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The large scale flow pattern during the long term period will be characterized by low-amplitude ridging across the center of the country, with WNW flow aloft locally. No significant weather systems are expected, but showers will be possible each day Tuesday through Thursday with a frontal boundary nearby and weak disturbances embedded within the WNW flow progressing through aloft.

A mix of sun and clouds is expected on Monday as a weak area of high pressure builds to our north. Highs on Monday should be around 70. By Tuesday, a frontal boundary will sag to the south toward our area, bringing chances for showers. Highs will once again be around 70. By Tuesday Night into Wednesday, guidance begins to diverge a bit with respect to the positioning of the aforementioned boundary and the timing of a shortwave approaching the area in WNW flow. The 00z Euro keeps us on the cool side of the boundary, with showers developing, while the 12z GFS and Canadian keep us on the warm side of the boundary. If we do end up on the warm side of the boundary, an afternoon thunderstorm can't be ruled out, but many of the models that place us on the warm side of the boundary have downslope westerly flow at low-levels, which would be unfavorable for the development of convection. Ensemble guidance shows a variety of possible solutions, so forecast uncertainty for Wednesday remains high. The largely stagnant large scale pattern will begin to change by Thursday, as an upper level low tracks from the Great Lakes toward the northeastern US. This system will drive a cold front southward toward our area, potentially bringing additional chances for showers Thursday afternoon or Thursday Night.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Gusty NW winds continue through 00Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through Monday at all terminals. Intermittent sub- VFR conditions may be possible through the middle of the week with stalled frontal position and low pressure system approaching.

MARINE. Winds continue this afternoon in solid SCA criteria range, with several gusts at or near gale force continue. The wind gusts will start to diminish at sunset, and continue to decrease to where much of the SCA can be taken down at midnight with the exception of the extreme lower tidal Potomac and mid-Chesapeake Bay. Winds there will not decrease below SCA until after midnight. A long period of sub-SCA winds are expected from Saturday through Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER. After this afternoon's enhanced wildfire danger that came close to Red Flag, RH will be on the increase along with slackening winds to reduce the danger quite a bit starting tonight and continuing through the weekend.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Tides should start rising again from Annapolis southward starting with Saturday afternoon's high tide. Stevens Institute model shows some uncertainity but reaching the moderate level at both Annapolis and Lewisetta Saturday night, and bears watching. Enough water in the bay to feel confident that advisories will likely be warranted for all high tide cycles from Saturday afternoon through Sunday night from Annapolis south.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530-531- 535-536-538-539. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ532-533- 540>542. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ534-537- 543.

SYNOPSIS . Lee NEAR TERM . Lee SHORT TERM . Lee LONG TERM . Lee/KJP AVIATION . Lee/KJP MARINE . Lee/KJP FIRE WEATHER . Lee TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Lee


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSNM2 6 mi59 min N 18 G 21 58°F 1008.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 6 mi47 min N 15 G 18 58°F 1008.6 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 7 mi47 min NNE 9.9 G 18 58°F 49°F1008.6 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 13 mi53 min N 22 G 25 54°F 51°F1009.7 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 21 mi47 min 60°F 1008.1 hPa
CPVM2 21 mi47 min 54°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 27 mi17 min NNE 16 G 17 54°F 51°F1009.7 hPa (+1.1)44°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi107 min N 8 1007 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 38 mi47 min NNW 13 G 21 53°F 52°F1009.3 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 41 mi47 min NNW 8 G 21 67°F 55°F1008.6 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD4 mi23 minNW 16 G 2310.00 miOvercast57°F41°F55%1010.2 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD8 mi23 minno data mi59°F36°F42%1009.5 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD13 mi23 minNNE 12 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F35°F38%1009 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD20 mi79 minNNW 15 G 278.00 miOvercast54°F38°F55%1009.8 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD21 mi23 minN 1110.00 miOvercast59°F37°F44%1009.2 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD21 mi32 minN 11 G 2010.00 miOvercast61°F33°F36%1009.8 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD23 mi32 minN 11 G 1910.00 miOvercast57°F41°F55%1009.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTN

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------W6W12
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1 day agoNW7W6NW3W4W4W5NW10NW7
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--
2 days agoNE5--E6E8NE5NE8NE4
G14
NE6NE5N6NE3N5N4--CalmN5NE6N3N9NW6NW12
G19
NW6NW8W8

Tide / Current Tables for Bowley Bar, Middle River, Maryland
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Bowley Bar
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:40 AM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:42 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:16 PM EDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:18 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.70.91.11.110.80.50.30.20.20.30.50.81.21.41.51.51.31.10.90.60.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:13 AM EDT     0.41 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:49 AM EDT     -0.49 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:29 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:09 PM EDT     0.85 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:50 PM EDT     -0.82 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.40.40.2-0-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.10.20.50.70.80.80.60.2-0.2-0.5-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.