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Marine Weather and Tides Essex, MD Version 3.4

NOTICE 8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it. 8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue. 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 6:56AM

Sunset 6:57PM

Saturday September 26, 2020 10:43 PM EDT (02:43 UTC)

Moonrise 3:43PM

Moonset 12:31AM

Illumination 74%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essex, MD

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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington

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FXUS61 KLWX 270056 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 856 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. A ridge of high pressure will build over the region through Sunday. A series of cold fronts will impact the region during the middle portion of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. A mid-level ridge of high pressure will build from the west. A few lingering showers over the Chesapeake Bay and southern Maryland will dissipate late this evening. A moist ground and low-level moisture should result in widespread areas of fog which could be locally dense after midnight. Guidance continues to strongly suggest widespread fog advisory, but given lingering clouds, will hold off on a pre-emptive fog advisory, especially since history of them has repeatedly shown a lack of skill with any fog advisories more than a couple hours in advance. Will closely monitor conditions however, and have adjusted the forecast in preparation of an advisory overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Warm and nice day is expected Sunday with mid-level ridge overhead after fog dissipates. No precip is expected along and west of the I-95 corridor. We can't rule out a few showers near the Bay shoreline as a weak shortwave- trough along the Atlantic Coast and Delmarva moves northeastward and out of the area by Sunday night.

Sunday night should be dry in all areas. Isolated POPs Monday into Monday night as a persistent southerly flow develops and some weak energy pushes in from the southwest. A few showers around Monday night, but nothing too widespread or heavy.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A highly sinusoidal longwave pattern will be in place to start the period with a split jet structure noted in many of the global models. A region of lower heights currently over far northern Manitoba is the likely genesis region for a rather potent shortwave primed to move through the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. The previous two model cycles (12Z/00Z) have trended southward leading to more a cut off solution as the system lifts out of the southern Appalachians late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Multiple waves of low pressure may form along the baroclinic zone with current ensembles bringing the cyclone centers from the Carolinas toward the Delmarva region. Accompanying this system is an impressive upper jet streak with recent models bringing 150 to 170 knot winds through interior New England. The Mid-Atlantic sits on the favorable right entrance region of this intense jet maxima which supports a fairly potent late September system. Recent GEFS ensembles show precipitable water values peaking into the 1.50 to 1.75 inch range which is in the 90th to 95th percentile in terms of moisture. All and all, the possibility of moderate to heavy rainfall exists during the Tuesday through Wednesday timeframe with uncertainty in timing and placement.

By Thursday into Friday, a cool post-frontal air mass will be in place with cold air advection significantly lowering temperatures. After beginning the week in the upper 70s to low 80s, broad cyclonic flow across the eastern half of the country will ensure a pronounced cooling trend. Current ensembles bring highs down into the low/mid 60s while overnight temperatures drop into the low/mid 40s. Conditions should dry out to close out the work week with the drying trend dependent on how quickly the system exits the Mid- Atlantic.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. MVFR is the main theme presently, with spotty IFR and VFR mixed in. A few showers persist near the bay. Guidance continues to insist that widespread areas of dense fog may develop late tonight with IFR/LIFR restrictions. Have included in TAFs for now. No sig wx is expected Sunday or Monday.

Given the increasing chances for showers with isolated thunderstorms, reduced visual flight rules are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday given periods of lowering ceilings and visibilities. Locally gusty winds are also possible within any of the heavier shower activity. Forecast uncertainty exists with details being ironed out in future discussions.

MARINE. Winds may strengthen Sunday night and remain gusty through the middle portion of next week. SCAs may become necessary.

Small Craft Advisory issuances are likely on Tuesday with occasional breezy southerly winds in advance of the cold front. For the following day, there will be periods approaching criteria, especially in the vicinity of any heavy showers.

EQUIPMENT. The KLWX (Sterling, VA) WSR-88D remains out of service until further notice. The outage is due to a failure within the Radar Data Acquisition Functional Area that occurred early in the morning on September 20, 2020.

Saturday morning, technicians from the National Weather Service Radar Operations Center diagnosed a failure in the bull-gear. This will cause a lengthy delay in returning KLWX WSR-88D to service. Staff from the WSR-88D Radar Operations Center, NWS Eastern Region Headquarters, and the Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office (WFO) will meet Monday, September 28 to determine the next steps. At that time, we will provide you with another update on the repair and expected time to return KLWX to service. At this point, the radar will be out of service for at least another week or two.

Users of KLWX can utilize adjacent weather radars located in Dover DE (KDOX), Mt. Holly NJ (KDIX), Pittsburgh PA (KPBZ), Charleston WV (KRLX), Blacksburg VA (KFCX), and Wakefield VA (KAKQ).

Further updates to keep users informed about the situation will be issued as information becomes available. Thank you for your understanding during this extended outage.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . KLW NEAR TERM . KLW/RCM SHORT TERM . KLW LONG TERM . BRO AVIATION . BRO/KLW/RCM MARINE . BRO/KLW/RCM EQUIPMENT . LWX

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
FSNM2	6 mi	56 min	N 6 G 7	69°F			1015.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD	6 mi	56 min	N 5.1 G 6	69°F			1015.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD	7 mi	56 min	N 4.1 G 5.1	69°F	74°F		1015.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD	13 mi	56 min	Calm G 2.9
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD	21 mi	56 min	WNW 5.1 G 6	70°F	71°F		1015.4 hPa
CPVM2	21 mi	56 min		69°F				68°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD	27 mi	44 min	NW 6 G 7	69°F	70°F		1016.7 hPa (+0.5)	69°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD	38 mi	134 min	Calm				1015 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD	38 mi	56 min	Calm G 1.9		69°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC	41 mi	56 min	N 1 G 2.9	69°F	69°F		1016.2 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD	4 mi	50 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	70°F	69°F	100%	1016.6 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD	13 mi	50 min	N 0	5.00 mi	Fog/Mist	69°F	66°F	93%	1015.8 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD	20 mi	46 min	N 0	6.00 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist	68°F	67°F	97%	1015.9 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD	21 mi	50 min	N 0	9.00 mi	Overcast	70°F	70°F	100%	1016 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD	21 mi	49 min	N 0	2.50 mi	Overcast	66°F	66°F	100%	1016.9 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD	23 mi	49 min	NW 5	3.00 mi	Rain Fog/Mist	68°F	0°F	%	1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTN

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Bowley Bar, Middle River, Maryland

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Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE

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