Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
George, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:24PM Wednesday May 27, 2020 1:46 AM EDT (05:46 UTC) Moonrise 8:54AMMoonset 11:55PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 137 Am Edt Wed May 27 2020
Overnight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy drizzle. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers with patchy drizzle. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers through the night.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 137 Am Edt Wed May 27 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure to the northeast will stretch over the waters tonight before migrating further eastward into the atlantic on Wednesday. Low pressure will move northward from the southeastern us and over the waters late Wednesday through Thursday. A front will cross the waters late Friday through Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed Thursday and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near George, MD
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location: 39.3, -76.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 270543 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 143 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure becomes more and more anchored in the western Atlantic through the remainder of this week. Meanwhile, a weak system near the east coast of Florida will track northward into the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday. Low pressure in southern Canada Wednesday night will track into the Canadian Maritimes by Friday, with an associated cold front slowly moving through our region Friday night and Saturday. Strong high pressure will build into the East Coast Sunday through early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Fog is slowly creeping inland across eastern New Jersey and Delmarva, but it is definitely having a harder time than last night. Additionally, observations of a quarter mile or less are fairly sparse/transient thus far. There are a few reasons this appears to be the case. First, winds are a little stronger within the fog bank (generally south to southeast up to 7 mph or so). Second, high clouds are moving across the area, which tends to inhibit substantive nocturnal radiational cooling slightly. Third, the prevailing wind direction has less of an onshore component than last night. As these three factors will persist for the rest of the overnight hours, I updated the forecast to depict a slower spread inland of the dense fog. For now, I made no changes to the areal extent of the dense fog advisory, but I suspect that the northwest fringe of the advisory will have a difficult time verifying. Should these trends continue, a trimming of the advisory will be required. I did move up the expiration time to 10 am, as dense fog should dissipate after 8 am or so, based on consensus of high- resolution guidance.

The main forecast concern once the fog dissipates this morning is the potential for showers to creep into the southern and western CWA this afternoon and especially tonight as a weak system off the Southeast coast early this morning moves northward into the Mid-Atlantic tonight and Thursday. There has been a significant shift westward with the track of the perturbation and the associated surface reflection, an indication of a stronger western Atlantic ridge. Large-scale lift associated with the perturbation is compact (as is typical with these weak tropical disturbances). As a result, there is a clear signal for a drier solution in our CWA, especially for New Jersey. Nevertheless, there are indications that weak midlevel vorticity maxima will emanate from the main perturbation, providing sufficient lift for convection in our region by tonight.

Think the prospects for precipitation in our region today are quite low, in general, so kept PoPs confined to slight to low- chance categories and mainly southwest of a Reading to Lewes line. Gradually increased PoPs during the overnight hours, but kept a clear gradient from east to west. QPF continues to look fairly light, but I remain concerned that any stronger convective cores could produce locally heavy downpours given the high-PW air moving into the region (up to 1.4-1.6 inches in Delmarva by late evening, increasing to 1.5-1.75+ inches by 12z Thursday). However, given the westward trend regarding the track of the system, think the better chances of impactful heavy rainfall will be west of the area.

Other concern through tonight is another round of low clouds and fog after dark. Surface flow will maintain an onshore component, and low-level moisture will continue to increase. There are questions regarding precipitation coverage in the area overnight, which would affect the formation of fog, so confidence is lower regarding widespread/dense fog. Nevertheless, the fairly persistent pattern would suggest fog will be present during the overnight hours, so have continued mention across the CWA.

Statistical guidance is quite variable with highs today, but general thinking is to go near or slightly higher than consensus given that even muted insolation will aid the ambient warm/moist advection regime in warming most of the area to values near 80 degrees. It will be much cooler near the coast, with onshore flow persisting. Lows tonight will be very warm (60s basically everywhere), as considerable cloud cover and warm/moist advection will mitigate nocturnal cooling substantially.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/. For Thursday . A strong upper-level ridge is forecast to become more centered off the East Coast more in line with the surface high in the western Atlantic. A deeper southerly flow will transport increasing moisture northward on the western periphery of the ridge, and a weak low pressure system is forecast to shift northward into or near our area later Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The guidance is showing the potential for much of the shower activity with this feature sliding just to our west, however showers cannot be ruled out farther east and even all the way to our coast. The feature may end up dissipating as it gets absorbed into the southwesterly flow ahead of an advancing upper- level trough from the Midwest. Given the placement of the offshore ridge and surface high, there should be a lowered chance for showers/thunder along the coast. The arrival of a precipitable water plume/surge of nearly 2 inches from the south may accompany the shower development. The airmass will be warm and humid, therefore another round of stratus and some fog should occur later Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The amount of sunshine Thursday will determine how warm we get and how much instability can occur. There may be a decrease in the shower activity Thursday afternoon as the aforementioned weak system shifts to our north.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. For Friday and Saturday . An amplifying upper-level trough across eastern Canada and the Great Lakes will shift eastward during this time frame. Surface low pressure will track well to our north across southeastern Canada, however the associated strong cold front will cross our area Friday night and Saturday. Ample moisture will surge northward ahead of the front with precipitable water values nearing 2 inches. At least some guidance hinting at a pre-frontal trough on Friday and modest instability could be in place. The shear may not be all that strong given the upper-level trough hanging back to the west quite a bit, however there is the potential for at least some storm organization within a warm and moist environment. Timing, instability and storm organization will determine any severe thunderstorm threat. There may be a decent amount of cloud cover around which would limit the overall instability, however a warm and humid airmass will be in place ahead of the cold front. In addition, a plume of near 2 inches of precipitable water would result in locally heavy rain especially with stronger convective cores. The cold front should be clearing our area from the northwest during the Saturday with gradual drying working its way in. The overall timing and details are less certain especially with the potential for a pre-frontal trough.

For Sunday through Tuesday . An upper-level trough amplifies across the East during Sunday and Monday with high pressure building in from the west. The combination of cold air advection and much drier air will result in a much cooler feel to the new airmass. As the upper-level trough shifts offshore Monday night into Tuesday, the surface high should build over or just to our south. A developing warm front however to our northwest across the Great Lakes is in response to increasing warm air advection within the return flow. The lift and associated showers with it should stay to our northwest.

AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight . Low clouds/fog will gradually creep westward toward the Philly terminals, with quick deterioration to LIFR likely. Main question will be VSBYs, as there are some indications that low CIGs will be the primary impact (especially at PHL). LIFR CIGs/VSBYs should persist the rest of the night at MIV/ACY. For RDG/ABE, MVFR/IFR CIGs are expected to move in after 09z, but VSBYs may remain VFR or possibly MVFR. Winds light south or southeast. High confidence for MIV/ACY/ILG; low confidence for PHL/PNE/TTN; moderate confidence for RDG/ABE.

Wednesday . Residual sub-VFR conditions are expected to improve to VFR/MVFR by late morning and predominantly VFR by afternoon. Light southeast winds. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night . Deteriorating conditions are again expected, with CIGs/VSBYs becoming sub-VFR during the evening and likely continuing through the rest of the night. Showers possible, especially west of PHL. Light southeast winds. Moderate confidence.

Outlook . Thursday . MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Thursday morning due to stratus and fog, then a period of VFR should occur. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible especially during Thursday. South or southwest winds around 10 knots. Low confidence.

Friday and Saturday . Periods of sub-VFR conditions probable with showers and thunderstorms on the increase for a time. South to southwest winds 5-15 knots with potentially higher gusts Friday, then becoming more west and northwest Friday night and Saturday. Low confidence with the timing of the precipitation and any associated restrictions.

Sunday . VFR. Northwest winds 10-15 knots. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Sub-advisory winds/seas are expected through tonight.

Dense fog will continue through this morning, with an advisory in effect until 11 am. Conditions may only improve slightly during the late morning and afternoon, with VSBYs perhaps staying between 1 and 3 nautical miles most of the day offshore. Another round of denser fog is probable Wednesday night.

Outlook . Thursday . The winds and seas will be on the increase (southerly flow) and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed for the Atlantic coastal waters. However, a warm airmass will be moving over the cooler waters and this should reduce the overall mixing. Some fog may occur Thursday morning.

Friday and Saturday . A Small Craft Advisory may be needed mainly for the Atlantic coastal waters, however the conditions look to be marginal. The conditions then improve during Saturday in the wake of a cold front. Some showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of and along a cold front.

Sunday . The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents . There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents on Wednesday. For Thursday, the risk may increase to moderate.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for PAZ070-071- 101>106. NJ . Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NJZ009-010- 012>027. DE . Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for DEZ001>004. MD . Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MDZ008-012- 015-019-020. MARINE . Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ430-431- 450>455.

Synopsis . Gorse Near Term . CMS Short Term . Gorse Long Term . Gorse Aviation . CMS/Gorse Marine . CMS/Gorse


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 6 mi53 min E 4.1 G 6 65°F 67°F1022.2 hPa
FSNM2 17 mi59 min SE 7 G 8 67°F 1022 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 17 mi53 min SE 5.1 G 5.1 68°F 1022 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 19 mi53 min S 2.9 G 4.1 68°F 67°F1021.7 hPa
CPVM2 23 mi53 min 66°F
44063 - Annapolis 26 mi41 min 64°F 68°F1021.9 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 26 mi53 min 67°F 1021.7 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 27 mi53 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 62°F 67°F1022.6 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi47 min E 6 G 6 66°F 66°F1023.1 hPa (+0.6)66°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 39 mi53 min S 6 G 8.9 60°F 66°F1022.5 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 39 mi53 min 60°F 64°F1022 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 44 mi137 min Calm 1021 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 45 mi53 min SSE 13 G 14 59°F 1023.1 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD11 mi3.9 hrsN 010.00 miClear68°F68°F100%1022.3 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD12 mi1.8 hrsN 010.00 miFair63°F62°F99%1022.3 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD21 mi53 minno data mi69°F64°F84%1022.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTN

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S6S5SE5SE5SE7S7S9SE4CalmCalm
1 day ago--------------CalmCalmCalmE5E5NE7E3SE5SE7SE7SE6SE3SE5CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago--------------E6CalmE4NE5E7--E4E5E5E5E6E5NE4SE3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Pooles Island, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Pooles Island
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Wed -- 12:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:48 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:32 AM EDT     2.02 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:00 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.10.90.70.50.50.60.81.11.51.8221.81.61.310.70.50.50.50.711.2

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:58 AM EDT     -0.39 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:20 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:14 AM EDT     0.93 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:11 PM EDT     -0.94 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:03 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:33 PM EDT     0.44 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.10.20.50.80.90.90.70.3-0.1-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.3-00.30.40.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.