Sunday, January19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Smyrna, DE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:08PM Sunday January 19, 2020 7:34 AM EST (12:34 UTC) Moonrise 2:18AMMoonset 12:55PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 618 Am Est Sun Jan 19 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday afternoon...
Today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late this morning and afternoon. A chance of rain early this morning.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft until early morning, then 2 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft early in the morning, then 2 ft or less late.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 618 Am Est Sun Jan 19 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will cross the region this morning followed by a second cold front tonight. High pressure will start to build into the mid- atlantic on Monday and crest over our area around Wednesday before finally moving to the south and east of the area late Friday. A low pressure system will approach from the west for next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smyrna, DE
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location: 39.34, -75.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 191124 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 624 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will cross the region this morning followed by a second cold front tonight. High pressure will start to build into the Mid- Atlantic on Monday and crest over our area around Wednesday before finally moving to the south and east of the area late Friday. A low pressure system will approach from the west for next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Low pressure in northern New England and over the Gulf of Maine early this morning will strengthen as it moves across Nova Scotia today. The low was in the process of pulling a cold front through our region during the pre-dawn hours. The last of the showers associated with the front are forecast to be off the coasts of Delaware and southern New Jersey shortly after daybreak. We are anticipating a decrease in cloud cover over southeastern Pennsylvania, central and southern New Jersey, Delaware and northeastern Maryland this morning. Clouds may linger over the Pocono Region and far northern New Jersey through much of the day.

A west northwest wind is expected to increase to 15 to 20 mph with gusts around 25 to 30 mph. High temperatures should range from the upper 20s on the Pocono Plateau to the middle 40s in southern Delaware and in the adjacent counties of eastern Maryland. These values are close to normal for January 19.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/. A mid level short wave trough that was located over the western Great Lakes early this morning is forecast to progress southeastward. The axis of the trough is expected to pass over our region late tonight. We are anticipating an increase in cloud cover this evening ahead of the feature, mainly over eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. It could produce scattered snow showers at that time in parts of the Lehigh Valley, the Pocono Region and northern New Jersey. Little if any accumulation is forecast.

A northwest wind 10 to 15 mph is expected for tonight, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Low temperatures will favor the teens and lower 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The main feature of the extended will be a large area of high pressure that builds into the Mid-Atlantic through the course of the week. The airmass starts off on the cold side and below the climatological normals but will moderate each day and reach near normal through mid-week before continuing to warm to above normal temperatures by the end of the work week.

Monday will feature gusty winds as the pressure gradient remains fairly tight between the building high to our west and the departing low to the north and east. Winds look to be strongest in the morning as the gradient appears to weaken through the day as the low pusses quickly away through the Canadian maritimes. Soundings show some gusts around 25 to 35 mph possible early with diminishing gusts as we head through the late morning and into the afternoon. With highs only expected to reach into the 20s to mid 30s across the region, it will be a cold one (colder with the wind chills early in the day) even though the sun should be shining brightly across the forecast area.

Monday night, the winds diminish quite a bit and should become relatively light across the region. With little to no clouds in sight, we will radiate quite efficiently and temps should drop off. Low temperatures are expected to drop off into the teens across much of the region will some temps closer to the lower 20s along the coastal regions.

As stated above, the air mass will modify and we should see a warming trend across the region as the week progresses. Conditions will be fairly similar with plenty of sunshine across the region from Tuesday through Friday. Highs on Tuesday will be fairly similar to Monday, although it will feel slightly warmer as winds remain much more lax across the region with the high starting to push towards the area. By the time we get to Wednesday, temperatures should be warming and highs will start to rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s (much closer to the normals for late January) and then by Thursday they warm even further and reach into the 40s.

The one difference will be that clouds will gradually increase as we head towards the end of the week as the next system will start to develop and move towards the region. However, that will not stop the sun from shining brightly and helping us to warm significantly. Friday will be the warmest day of the week with highs possibly nearing 50 as far north as the I-95 corridor and on average around 10 degrees warmer than normal through the forecast area.

Model guidance presently is showing a low pressure system developing out towards the plains/western gulf and then tracking into the midwestern states Friday. The current model tracks for this system would keep us in the warm sector (as has been the case for much of this winter already) and would keep most of the precipitation that falls as liquid and generally plain rain, although some mixing is more likely to occur at times in the higher elevations. With plenty of time to let the models get a better handle on this system, will keep a simple rain/snow mention in the relevant areas in the forecast.

AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Lingering IFR/MVFR ceilings improving to VFR by 13Z. VFR from about 13Z onward with scattered to broken cloud cover. West northwest wind 12 to 16 knots gusting to 25 to 30 knots. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR. Scattered to broken cloud cover. There is a chance of snow showers around KABE between about 00Z and 04Z which could lower conditions briefly to MVFR there. Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots gusting around 20 knots. Generally high confidence, with medium confidence regarding the snow shower potential.

Outlook .

Monday . VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 30 knots possible, mainly before 18Z. Gusts around 20 knots possible through 00Z. High confidence.

Monday night through Wednesday . VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds around 10 knots. High confidence.

Wednesday night and Thursday . VFR conditions expected. Winds variable but generally less than 10 knots. High confidence.

MARINE. Strong low pressure was departing well to our northeast early this morning, and high pressure was beginning to build toward the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware from the northwest. The pattern will maintain a brisk west northwest wind on our waters for today and tonight. Frequent wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots are anticipated. As a result, the Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

Outlook .

Monday . A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Monday. Seas on the ocean will start off around 3 to 5 feet and then should diminish through the day. Northwest winds will gust around 25 to 30 knots through the morning and into the afternoon. Gusts are expected to drop below 25 knots by early evening as the gradient really starts to weaken.

Monday night . Northwest winds may gusts near 25 knots during the the early part of the evening but should continue to diminish through the night. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed but confidence was too low to extend farther out at this time. Seas will be around 2 to 4 feet.

Tuesday through Thursday . Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Seas are expected to be around 1 to 3 feet. Winds will generally be out of the northwest around 5 to 15 knots through the period.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ430-431- 450>455.



Synopsis . Meola Near Term . Iovino Short Term . Iovino Long Term . Meola Aviation . Iovino/Meola Marine . Iovino/Meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 12 mi52 min W 6 G 7 41°F 43°F1007.8 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 15 mi52 min 38°F 41°F1007 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 17 mi52 min W 1.9 G 2.9 38°F 41°F1007.8 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 17 mi52 min W 2.9 G 5.1 38°F 45°F1007.5 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi52 min 39°F 41°F1007 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 35 mi52 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 41°F 40°F1008 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 36 mi52 min WNW 16 G 19 48°F 1008 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 43 mi46 min WNW 4.1 G 8.9 43°F 43°F1007.4 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 46 mi46 min WNW 11 G 13 46°F 43°F1007.9 hPa
CPVM2 48 mi52 min 43°F
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 48 mi46 min 37°F 41°F1006.7 hPa

Wind History for Ship John Shoal, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dover Air Force Base, DE15 mi38 minSW 910.00 miOvercast43°F42°F99%1007.8 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE23 mi43 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist36°F33°F89%1007.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDOV

Wind History from DOV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6S6S5S9S11S9SE8SE5SE5S6S7--SW8S18SW17
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NW12--NW6NW9NW8NW7NW6NW8N6N5N5N3NW4N5NE5NE3
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Tide / Current Tables for Taylors Bridge, Blackbird Creek, Delaware
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Taylors Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:29 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:11 AM EST     2.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:55 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:12 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:39 PM EST     2.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.1-0.10.311.72.32.72.92.72.21.50.90.4-00.10.61.21.82.22.62.62.21.5

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:47 AM EST     2.00 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:27 AM EST     -0.09 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:57 AM EST     -2.19 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:00 PM EST     0.05 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:56 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:41 PM EST     2.08 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:16 PM EST     -0.07 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:30 PM EST     -1.43 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:28 PM EST     0.06 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.921.71-1-1.7-2.1-2.2-2.1-1.8-1.3-0.11.522.11.81.30.6-1-1.4-1.4-1.1-0.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.