Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fairton, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:39PM Friday December 13, 2019 12:29 AM EST (05:29 UTC) Moonrise 6:08PMMoonset 8:29AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 931 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Overnight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of drizzle late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of drizzle early in the morning, then a chance of rain in the late morning and early afternoon. Rain likely late. Patchy fog late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the morning, then 1 to 3 nm late.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog early in the evening. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. A chance of rain.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Rain likely.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Rain likely.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
ANZ400 931 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Strong high pressure will shift to the northeast through the overnight as low pressure pushes across the southeast and towards the carolina coast. The low will strengthen as it tracks up the east coast later Friday and Saturday, then it continues to move away during Sunday. After a brief period of drier air, another low pressure system moves across the tennessee valley and into the mid- atlantic Monday into Tuesday. High pressure then looks to settle into the region Wednesday into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairton, NJ
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location: 39.38, -75.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 130229 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 929 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. Strong high pressure will shift to the northeast through the overnight as low pressure pushes across the Southeast and towards the Carolina coast. The low will strengthen as it tracks up the East Coast later Friday and Saturday, then it continues to move away during Sunday. After a brief period of drier air, another low pressure system moves across the Tennessee Valley and into the Mid- Atlantic Monday into Tuesday. High pressure then looks to settle into the region Wednesday into Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. For the 830 PM and 930 PM updates, due to only thin cirrus and low dew points (light to no wind) the hourly temperatures and low temperatures were lowered some for several areas given trends. The clouds will increase and thicken overnight and this is expected to halt the temperature drop and result in either a steady state or slow rise toward morning. The 00z Wallops Island, VA raob shows a very shallow layer that is moistening just below 850 mb. There are some clouds in the 4000-5000 foot range nearby, however it is rather dry below and above this layer. As a result, it will take much of the night to moisten the lower levels. Despite this, a stratocumulus deck is expected late tonight across much of the area which may then lower some closer to daybreak. Still see at least some drizzle potential especially if more of a stratus deck occurs, however there remains uncertainty given the dryness of the airmass currently in place. This will be monitored overnight especially given the cold temperatures.

Otherwise, strong high pressure will shift to the northeast tonight, allowing moisture and warmer air to begin filtering back into the area. The low-level flow (e.g. 925-850 mb) will veer southeasterly overnight which will allow some lower clouds to begin moving into the area after midnight or so. Consequently expect overnight lows (generally ranging from the mid 20s to around 30) to largely occur before midnight with most locations being several degrees warmer by daybreak.

This increasing low-level moisture will combine with some weak isentropic ascent to potentially support some very light precipitation (drizzle) early Friday morning. Given how dry we are initially (e.g. current dewpoints are mostly in the teens) combined with the fact that the upper-level dynamics won't arrive until later in the day, generally doubt we will see much measurable precip. There is also a small chance that the overunning setup could result in some freezing drizzle in spots along the northern periphery of the moisture return, but confidence in this occurring is too low to warrant any headlines at this time.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. A lead shortwave will begin to approach during the day on Friday and an UL jet streak will approach from the south. These factors will combine with continued isentropic ascent to increase precipitation chances through the day on Friday. Although expect that the bulk of the precipitation will be light in this period (the heavier precipitation will likely occur in the extended) do have high enough confidence to include likely PoPs for just about everywhere by Friday afternoon. Regarding Ptypes there is the potential for some light FZRA (particularly north of I-78) Friday morning, but given uncertainty over both PoPs and the thermal profiles in this period did not include any ice accumulations at this time. Also can't rule out some patchy fog/mist Friday afternoon as low-lvl moisture and precipitation begin to increase (particularly over SE PA).

Temperatures will be warmer than today, although uncertainty (as is typical in these prefrontal overunning setups) does increase further away from the coast. Generally expect highs along and east of I-95 to reach the upper 40s to lower 50s, while low-mid 40s will be the norm over interior eastern PA and NW NJ.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. A novel, Part 1 (shorter long term) .

A wet and wild beginning to the extended forecast period as low pressure moves out of the Southeast toward the Carolina Coast by Saturday morning. Strong PVA and WAA associated with a strongly negatively oriented mid- level trough will lead to strong pressure and height falls over our region and into the Northeast, progressing the surface low quickly off to the north and east through the day Saturday and into Saturday night. A strong jet developing over New England will also aid in the rapid intensification of the low, especially as it moves from the mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast. The low looks to track mostly over our region, thus we will bear much of the impact. Rain looks to fall heaviest early Saturday morning, where much of the area will likely pick up at least half an inch of rain in the first portion of the day. Given the track of the low, have a feeling that rain rates will lessen mid to late morning and into the afternoon behind the first initial surge in rain early Saturday morning as the center of the surface low moves near or just west of the Delaware Valley. This may work to dry slot us a little more than what some of the models are suggesting, so only made some minor adjustments to the QPF grids for now.

Give the antecedent conditions, minor flooding could be an issue. Normally, rainfall below two inches over this span of time wouldn't lead to significant concerns, but the appreciable rainfall we experience earlier this week has almost saturated portions of the soil, limiting the amounts necessary to cause concerns. PWATS ranging from one to one and a half inches support moderate to heavy rainfall, thus there is increased concern for localized flooding. Rainfall above two inches will likely cause concerns so if we can keep amounts below this, things should stay fine. Rainfall totals right now range from one to one and a half inches, so no flood products appear to be needed at this time but this could change if forecast totals trend upwards.

Considerable warm air advection with southeasterly flow ahead of the system will lead to mild conditions Saturday with 850 mb temps from 10 to 15 degrees C. Thus, highs are forecast to make it into the low to mid 50s again Saturday. There isn't a substantial push of cold air with this system, unlike the snow producer earlier this week, thus, no frozen precip is forecast as the low moves northeast Sunday. Temperature will drop but not too drastically for this time of year with afternoon highs Sunday sitting in the mid to upper 40s. It will be breezy, however, with wind gusts up to 25 mph into the afternoon. Low temperatures Sunday night will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s across the region.

A novel, Part 2 (longer long term) .

A ridge of high pressure will be across the region early Monday. After a seasonably chilly morning, the high will move offshore and clouds will increase over the area. Precipitation will follow for the afternoon when temperatures should have warmed enough to allow mostly rain for the area. We have to still mention the possibility for some snow at the onset for the W and NW areas, but there is plenty of uncertainty at this range about the beginnings of the storm. Earlier precip favors more mixed/snow while later timing will bring mostly rain. Either way, a period of 24 to 30 hours of (mostly) rains across the CWA with perhaps 3/4 to 1 1/2 inches of QPF possible. Temperatures will be a little above normal Tue as long as the present storm track just N of the area holds. Highs will be in the 40s N and 50s S. The EC is showing much warmer readings attm, but not ready to go with this solution attm.

Precipitation ends overnight Tue into Wed morning, perhaps as a little snow, as colder air arrives. The few days after that will feature mainly dry but cold weather. High pressure will settle across the area at the end of the week. Highs will mostly be in the 30s, but some low 40s for Delmarva are possible.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight . VFR with high clouds giving way to a lowering ceiling from southeast to northwest after midnight. Timing regarding when the ceilings lower to MVFR is less certain, but it is generally expected to be in the 06-12Z time frame (starting at ACY and MIV). South to southeast winds around 5 knots becoming light and variable, then becoming light east or east-northeast late. High confidence in lowering ceilings; low confidence with the timing of MVFR ceilings.

Friday . Generally MVFR to start the day, with conditions deteriorating to IFR in the afternoon with some visibility restrictions in mist also possible. Some light rain should occur at times at all terminals, especially in the afternoon. Easterly winds 5-10 knots. High confidence in general flight category trends and winds; low confidence in specific category timings.

Outlook . Friday night and Saturday . MVFR to IFR as moderate to heavy rain moves through the region. Easterly winds turning southwesterly from 5 to 10 knots in the morning with gusts up to 15 knots strengthening to 10 to 15 knots and gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . MVFR conditions possible, especially in the early morning as rain showers lift north and east. VFR conditions return as the low pressure as the storm system lifts to our north. Breezy with westerly winds from 10 to 15 knots and gusts from 25 to 30 knots possible. Moderate confidence confidence.

Sunday night . VFR conditions expected with northwesterly winds from 5 to 10 knots. High clouds will be on the increase by Monday morning as another storm system begins to close in on the region. Moderate confidence.

Monday and Monday night . Mainly VFR conditions expected. Rain/snow may move into the terminals by late morning/early afternoon. West to northwest winds from 5 to 10 knots. Low confidence.

MARINE. As high pressure moves northeast of the area a general easterly- southeasterly flow will develop over the waters tonight through the day on Friday. Expect conditions to remain below criteria through the day on Friday with easterly winds sustained 10-15 kts and gusting to 20 kts. 2-3 ft seas tonight will increase to around 4 ft by Friday afternoon.

Outlook . Saturday . Winds may approach Small Craft Advisory Criteria by the late afternoon with gusts nearing 25 knots out of the southwest. Seas from 5 to 7 feet.

Saturday night . Small Craft Advisory winds out of the southwest will prevail. There is the potential for a Gale force gusts early Sunday morning. Seas drop to 3 to 5 feet.

Sunday . Gale force gusts possible out of the west from 30 to 35 knots through the afternoon. Seas ranging from 4 to 6 feet.

Sunday night . Small Craft Advisory winds out of the west-northwest with gusts near or exceeding 25 knots. Seas from 2 to 4 feet.

Monday and Monday night . Seas are expected to fall below 5 feet by early Monday morning and will drop to around 1 to 3 feet through the day. Some 25 knot gusts may occur early Monday before 12Z but are expected to be out of the northwest around 10 to 15 knots throughout the remainder of the day.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Davis/Gorse Near Term . Carr/Gorse Short Term . Carr Long Term . Davis/O'Hara Aviation . Carr/Davis/Gorse/O'Hara Marine . Carr/Davis/O'Hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 9 mi59 min ENE 9.9 G 12 33°F 45°F1035.3 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 21 mi65 min 32°F 43°F1034.9 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 23 mi65 min E 7 G 8 32°F 45°F1035.4 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 28 mi59 min 1034.9 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 31 mi65 min 33°F 42°F1035.7 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 32 mi65 min ESE 1 G 2.9 31°F 42°F1035.5 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 32 mi59 min E 1.9 G 5.1 36°F 45°F1034.3 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 39 mi59 min 32°F 40°F1035.9 hPa
BDSP1 42 mi59 min 31°F 1036.6 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 42 mi59 min NNW 1.9 27°F 1037 hPa25°F
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 42 mi59 min ESE 8.9 G 13 44°F 44°F1034.3 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 44 mi59 min 43°F 44°F1036.1 hPa

Wind History for Ship John Shoal, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ9 mi35 minENE 310.00 miFair28°F21°F75%1034.7 hPa
Dover Air Force Base, DE21 mi33 minENE 710.00 miFair34°F28°F83%1034.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMIV

Wind History from MIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3W4CalmNW5N8NW7N7N6NE6NE6E5E533CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3
1 day agoNW8--NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Tindalls Wharf, Cohansey River, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Tindalls Wharf
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:36 AM EST     5.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:29 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:44 PM EST     6.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:59 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.45.44.42.81.40.4-0.10.21.334.65.76.36.45.64.12.61.40.5-0.10.41.534.2

Tide / Current Tables for Money Island, Nantuxent Creek entrance, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Money Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:11 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:28 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:00 AM EST     6.51 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:38 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:03 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:33 PM EST     5.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.72.31.10.4-0.10.21.63.55.26.26.56.14.93.52.31.30.4-0.10.41.93.54.75.45.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.