Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shiloh, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:38PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 6:12 AM EST (11:12 UTC) Moonrise 3:48PMMoonset 5:20AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 400 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Today..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W late. Waves around 3 ft this morning, then 2 ft or less. A chance of rain early this morning, then rain late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less. Rain early in the morning. Snow in the morning, then a chance of snow early in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less. Rain likely.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 400 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure will pass north of the area today with its cold front crossing through the region late this afternoon into this evening. Strong high pressure will build in from the west Wednesday night into Thursday and moving offshore Thursday night. A low pressure system will move through the southeastern states and into the mid- atlantic late Friday into Saturday. The low will quickly move off to the northeast allowing high pressure to build into the region for the start of the new week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shiloh , NJ
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location: 39.38, -75.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 100903 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 403 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will pass north of the area today with its cold front crossing through the region late this afternoon into this evening. Strong high pressure will build in from the west Wednesday night into Thursday and moving offshore Thursday night. A low pressure system will move through the southeastern states and into the Mid- Atlantic late Friday into Saturday. The low will quickly move off to the northeast allowing high pressure to build into the region for the start of the new week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Lingering light rain is slowly coming to an end as warm air advection pushes into the region behind a warm front. Temperatures across DelMarVa are warming into the 60s which is more than 10 degrees F above our normal climo max temp for the daylight hours. This in turn is warming the soil temps quite a bit more than guidance likely is handling and we'll return to this later in the Short Term discussion.

Synoptically there's a deep upper level trough with a strong 250mb jet nosing into northern New Jersey. The jet eventually pushes towards the north this morning and then we start to lose the synoptic lift as well as the higher PWAT values. The 00z sounding from OKX had 1.28" of PWAT which based on the SPC PWAT climo would be a daily record! That all certainly helped contribute to the 1- 1.5" of rain across the I95 corridor early today however I expect the 12z soundings to be closer to 0.9-1.0".

The Mid-Atlantic will sit squarely in the middle of the warm sector today as southerly winds continue to pump warm air into the region through the morning. Because of this I went on the slightly higher side of guidance with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s across the region even under overcast skies. 925mb temps from the notoriously cold GFS warm to +9C to +12C. If this were under clear skies those 925mb temps support temps near 70! Which would be record territory.

By late in the afternoon we'll see an abrupt end to the warm air as a cold front will start to push through. The front looks pretty certain to be anafrontal which means that the precip lags behind the front rather than ahead of it.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. As mentioned in the near term the anafrontal nature of this system presents an interesting forecast challenge. The cold front will track through the region and setup up offshore overnight. This will usher in strong cold air advection at the same time that the final round of precip starts to move in. So this is where the forecast gets tricky.

Models are showing the potential for a strong meso band of snow to setup as the precip tracks through. There a potent 700mb Fgen band that tracks through at roughly the same time as the we sit in the right rear entrance of the upper level jet axis. This means we should see some pretty potent lift across the region and with the DGZ becoming fully saturated we should see a pretty good thump of snow especially across northern New Jersey and eastern PA. The challenge will be can the rate of snow dynamically cool both the column AND the surface such that we'll see the snow accumulate.

Here's where I'm coming back to the warmer than normal skin temps highlighted in the Near term discussion. Skin temps are forecast to warm towards the mid 50s from the I95 corridor east. If we get that materializes, its going to be a challenge for me to see pavement temps across the region cool that fast even as snow falls. Grassy and elevated surfaces will certainly cool faster than the pavement temps so I anticipate we'll see some moderate to even at times heavy snow falling in the hours leading up to rush hour, however accumulations on the road surfaces should be generally 1 to 2 inches north and west of the I95 corridor with a dusting to perhaps a half and inch on grassy surfaces through Wednesday morning.

At this point, the Wednesday morning commute looks like it will be impacted by snow, but I dont quite yet have a great handle on the degree of impact. The morning commute on Wednesday could become messy, but I generally feel like road conditions will be on the wet to perhaps slushy side rather than seeing significant snow accumulations. We'll certainly need to continue to pay attention to how the evolution of today affects the skin temps tomorrow and how that affects snow accumulation.

Precip rapidly comes to an end in the afternoon and by late Wednesday afternoon we should start to see clearing skies with temps getting close to the mid 30s for afternoon highs on westerly flow.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure will build across the region on Thursday, moving offshore Thursday night. While there will be plenty of sunshine across the area, the air accompanying the high will be quite cold, and dry, resulting in highs in the 30s across the majority of the forecast area with the southern Poconos struggling to break out of the 20s. With relatively clear skies to start the night, the temperatures should radiate efficiently and lows Thursday night will drop down into the teens to lower 20s. Areas right along the coast may be more moderate and remain in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

The high pushes off towards the Canadian maritimes on Friday leaving our area in east to southeast flow. In general, Friday looks to be relatively dry to start but precipitation will start to push into the area ahead of the next approaching system. Temperatures at the onset may be quite cold but it looks like the precipitation holds off until the afternoon and when temperatures have risen well above freezing in most areas so expect just plain rain to fall.

Low pressure will track from the Gulf coast states through the Carolinas and up into the Mid-Atlantic Friday night into Saturday before continuing up in the New England by Sunday. Ahead of the system we will be able to warm up quite a bit with highs on Friday rising into the 40s to lower 50s and we should see plain rain fall across the region. There is some concern that some wintry mix may develop across the northern areas Friday night into early Saturday. Temperatures may remain in the mid to upper 30s across portions of the southern Poconos and northwest New Jersey, and with warm air moving in aloft, there may potential for some patchy freezing rain to occur. However, not overly confident that we will see temps drop enough before the warm air and precipitation arrive so will remove any mention of freezing rain from the forecast.

The low will track through the region on Saturday and then move northward towards New England, deepening as it tracks north. With warm air in place, it looks to be another rain event for the region with the potential for some areas of heavy rain to occur as PWATs rise to around 1.0-1.3". As the storm pulls away, the bulk of the precipitation should go with it but we may continue to see some showers occur through part of Sunday with some snow possibly mixing in on the back side of the storm across the higher elevations.

Conditions start to dry out, especially later Sunday, as high pressure starts to edge its way into the area. Monday looks to be dry at this time as the high builds across the region. However, the next low pressure starts to develop across the southern US and will start to move towards our area in the new week.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tuesday . MVFR with periods of IFR ceilings possible. Expect scattered rain showers through the afternoon today with local IFR in reduced visibilities. Southwesterly winds around 10 kts turning westerly after 18Z. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night . MVFR/IFR in rain changing to snow overnight. Winds W/NW 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . Widespread MVFR/IFR in rain becoming snow in the morning. By mid afternoon conditions will rapidly improve to VFR as the precipitation comes to an end. West winds near 10 kt.

Outlook .

Thursday through Thursday night . VFR conditions expected. Light northerly winds during the day becoming light and variable overnight. High Confidence.

Friday..Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower conditions possible as rain develops through the afternoon and evening. Light northeast to east winds. Moderate confidence

Friday night through Saturday . MVFR or lower conditions expected in rain. Conditions may start to improve late Saturday. East winds around 8 to 12 knots Thursday night veering to the south Saturday morning and then to the southwest Saturday afternoon. Moderate confidence

MARINE. SCA's continue for the ocean waters today as waves are well in excess of 5 feet across the region. Strong winds aloft aren't mixing to the surface and so while there could be an occasional gust up to 30 knots the winds will generally be westerly 10 to 20 knots through the day today. Waves stay elevated until late overnight Tuesday night and so the SCA was extended for the ocean water while being cancelled for the Delaware Bay.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Wednesday night . Conditions are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria. However, wind gusts around 25 knots are possible, mainly late Wednesday into early Thursday.

Thursday . Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected on the area waters with north to northeast winds gusting around 15 to 20 knots and seas around 2 to 4 feet.

Friday . Increasing winds and building seas expected, especially later in the day, but expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions through the day. East winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots and seas around 2 to 4 feet.

Friday night through Saturday . East winds will continue to increase Friday evening and gusts are expected to exceed 25 knots Friday night. Winds will turn to south and then west on Saturday. Seas will build from 2 to 4 feet to 3 to 5 feet by early Saturday morning, and continuing to build to 5 to 8 feet through the day. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ450>455.

Synopsis . Meola Near Term . Deal Short Term . Deal Long Term . Meola Aviation . Deal/Meola Marine . Deal/Meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 5 mi55 min SW 18 G 21 57°F 46°F1009.4 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 17 mi67 min 55°F 44°F1008.1 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 19 mi67 min SW 4.1 G 8 56°F 47°F1008.7 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 26 mi55 min SW 6 G 8.9 55°F 42°F1009.4 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 30 mi55 min 1010.5 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 30 mi55 min 51°F 44°F1008.5 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 35 mi55 min SSW 13 G 18 57°F 47°F1010.3 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 40 mi55 min 54°F 41°F1008.1 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 43 mi55 min SW 11 G 19 63°F 46°F1010.7 hPa
BDSP1 44 mi55 min 54°F 1008.5 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 48 mi43 min SSW 14 60°F 1010 hPa56°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 49 mi55 min 51°F 46°F1010.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi55 min S 8 G 13 55°F 46°F1009.4 hPa

Wind History for Ship John Shoal, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ15 mi79 minVar 610.00 miOvercast57°F53°F87%1009.7 hPa
Dover Air Force Base, DE18 mi77 minSSW 18 G 2510.00 miOvercast and Breezy60°F55°F85%1009.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMIV

Wind History from MIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4CalmSW666SW6SW3CalmCalm3Calm444SW4SW9
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5SE7SE954S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmW3N6NE6N5N7
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N9N10NW7NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Greenwich Pier, Cohansey River, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Greenwich Pier
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:02 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:19 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:04 AM EST     5.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:45 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:30 PM EST     5.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.10.400.41.73.24.45.35.65.34.33.11.910.300.72.13.44.354.94.1

Tide / Current Tables for Back Creek entrance, Nantuxent Cove, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Back Creek entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:21 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:19 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:17 AM EST     6.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:05 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:43 PM EST     5.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.60.10.21.434.55.56.15.94.93.72.41.40.500.51.83.34.55.25.44.73.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.