Martinsville, IN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Martinsville, IN

May 2, 2024 4:43 PM EDT (20:43 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:44 AM   Sunset 8:41 PM
Moonrise 2:53 AM   Moonset 1:22 PM 
  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Top   Marine   7-Day   NWS   Buoy   Airport   Tide   Map   GEOS   Radar  


Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Martinsville, IN
   Hourly   EDIT   Help   Map
NEW! Add second zone forecast


Area Discussion for - Indianapolis, IN
      (hide/show)   Help   
NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KIND 021857 AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 257 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and more humid today with chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight.

- Multiple chances for showers and storms throughout much of the forecast period, with continued above normal temperatures.

- Potential for severe weather during the middle of next week, highest chances Tuesday evening and Wednesday night.

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Latest surface observations show a warm front lifting northward across Indiana. Here in Indianapolis, surface dew points rose from 49 to 65 quickly after frontal passage. Concurrently, temperatures have risen into the lower 80s. Satellite imagery shows a cumulus field developing from the front southward, with the greatest concentration of cumulus developing over the more forested/elevated parts of central Indiana. ACARS soundings out of IND corroborate this, showing a substantial amount of low-level moistening and erosion of a weak capping inversion.

However, this weak capping inversion remains as of 17z...located around 850mb. It can be seen in the characterization of the cumulus field, which is relatively flat at the moment. As the boundary layer warms, it is expected that this cap gradually dissipates over the next several hours. It's at this point that we'll begin to see the threat for isolated showers and storms, since lapse rates are quite a bit steeper above just above the cap.

Model hodographs show a lack of shear through the depth of the column (some faster flow exists above the CAPE profile but storms may not reach high enough to feel the effects). With modest dry air in the soundings above 850mb it is possible that a few of the more robust updrafts produce gusty winds upon their collapse.
Additionally, an isolated instance of hail is possible, but may be limited in size due to poor storm top venting and modest updraft strength.

There are a few factors that should act to limit convection this afternoon. These include a lack of large-scale lift and advection of slightly drier air around the backside of a surface high to our east. As this process occurs, higher-res models tend to concentrate available buoyancy along and just south of the warm front. As such, any showers and storms would likely be nearer to this boundary compared to places further south. Overall, convective coverage will likely remain isolated and spread northward with time.

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

As of 2pm, temperatures have climbed into the mid 80s across much of central Indiana. With partly cloudy skies and a couple more hours of heating...it is not out of the question that a few record high temps are set before the day is out. A rather large cumulus field signifies that we have reached our convective temps across most of the area, however. This could act to limit further warming to only a degree or two. Though some drier air filtering in from the south may allow for a better rate of warming, especially south of Indy.

The aforementioned cumulus field has shown some vertical growth as a low-level capping inversion is slowly eroded. Higher-res guidance continues to depict a few showers or thunderstorms developing this afternoon, especially near the warm front where richer moisture can be found. Coverage will be limited, as large-scale lift is weak and drier air is flowing from the south as mentioned before.
Nevertheless, ACARS/model soundings show sufficient mid-level dry air for DCAPE values over 1000 J/Kg, which supports the potential for gusty winds/downbursts. Additionally, lapse rates and CAPE profiles support a marginal hail threat. Hail size may be limited by weak storm top flow and a CAPE profile that tapers towards the top of the hail growth zone. Overall, any strong wind gusts / hail will be limited to the strongest updrafts...which will be very isolated in nature.

Overnight, a cold front to our west begins to work its way into Indiana. Richer moisture and forcing accompany it, and so our chances for rain go up quite a bit. Most locations will see showers at some point through tomorrow morning. A few thunderstorms may be embedded within the area of showers, but weak lapse rates and low shear should limit severe potential.

Rain slowly diminishes during the day on Friday as the front slowly works its way through Indiana. Showers may persist on and off, along with low cloud coverage, through the afternoon. Once the front passes, gradual improvement is expected as we head into the weekend.

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Friday Night Through Sunday.

Active weather is expected for much of the long term period with near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with the potential for severe weather at times next week. The first round is expected Friday night into early Saturday with the passage of a cold front.
There will be little instability and only 15-20kts of effective bulk shear with this frontal passage, so not expecting anything more than a few rumbles of thunder and up to a half inch of QPF. Model soundings show much drier air working in the aftermath of the frontal passage which should help skies to quickly clear out for much of Saturday.

This break in the rain will be brief with the next cold front passage expected late Saturday night into early Sunday. There will be a weak wave associated with the southern jet which may enhance precipitation across the southern counties along with the potential for a decaying MCS out of the northwest associated with the main system. The front should be through by the early afternoon with drier weather returning into late Sunday.

Monday Through Thursday.

On Monday a rapidly deepening upper level low pressure system will eject eastwards from the Rockies and begin to travel to the northeast with broad ascent across the Ohio Valley as a LLJ begins to advect warm and moist air through the column. This low pressure system is expected to slowly move through the Dakotas through Thursday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across central Indiana along with the potential for severe weather.

The timeframe for highest confidence in thunderstorms are Tuesday evening and again Wednesday night as the cold front associated with the main system finally pushes through. During both of those timeframes, damaging winds and large hail are possible with the highest confidence in severe weather during the overnight hours Wednesday night into Thursday which is when shear will be maximized ahead of the frontal passage. The pattern will then shift late Thursday into the weekend with cooler and drier weather as the flow aloft becomes more northwesterly.

MMEFS river runs show that the expected rainfall of 1-3 inches between now and next Thursday shouldn't cause much more than a prolonging of action stage to low minor flooding through next week.

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Impacts:

- Convection possible this afternoon and evening.

- MVFR/IFR conditions possible in any convection that strikes a TAF site.

- Confidence for afternoon showers/storms is low.

- Confidence for overnight showers is high.

Discussion:

A warm front lifting northward across Indiana will allow winds to become southerly, occasionally gusting to 20kt this afternoon.

Enough moisture and instability exists for a stray shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon as the front lifts northward.
Coverage will be very widespread, and confidence that a shower/storm impacts a terminal is low. Will carry VCSH/VCTS during the most likely timeframe for this...should it occur. Any shower or storm may briefly reduce affected terminals into MVFR/IFR conditions.

A more widespread area of showers and possibly a thunderstorm arrives late tonight. Confidence with this is much higher, and all terminals are expected to see rainfall and at least MVFR conditions.
Low-level moisture and cloud cover could allow MVFR conditions to persist through much of the day on Friday.

A cold front then arrives late Friday afternoon, switching winds to northwesterly and improving ceilings somewhat.



IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (hide/show)   Help




Airport Reports
    EDIT      (hide/show)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KBMG MONROE COUNTY,IN 18 sm50 minSSW 11G1710 smA Few Clouds86°F57°F38%29.91
KGPC PUTNAM COUNTY RGNL,IN 24 sm28 minS 12G1910 smClear84°F59°F43%29.90
Link to 5 minute data for KBMG


Wind History from BMG
(wind in knots)
toggle option: (graph/table)



Tide / Current for
   EDIT      (hide/show)   Help


Weather Map
       (hide/show)   Help


GEOS Local Image of great lakes   
EDIT



Indianapolis, IN,



NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE