Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Martinsville, IN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 8:17PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 4:23 PM EDT (20:23 UTC) Moonrise 6:57PMMoonset 6:25AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Martinsville, IN
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location: 39.39, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Indianapolis, IN
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FXUS63 KIND 071759 AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN Issued by National Weather Service Bismarck ND 159 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

UPDATE. The NEAR TERM and AVIATION Sections have been updated below.

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 344 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

A couple of cold fronts will bring shower and thunderstorms chances to central Indiana through Wednesday night. Some severe storms are possible tonight and again Wednesday night. Another system will bring more chances for rain this weekend. Warm air will linger into Wednesday, then colder than normal air will move in.

NEAR TERM (This afternoon).

Issued at 159 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Minor changes were made to the forecast to reflect observed trends in both temperatures and sky cover. As of 1745 UTC, mixing within the destabilizing boundary layer is generating cumulus streets in central Indiana, with the most concentrated shallow convection in areas along and north of I-70 where weak confluence exists from southwest to more westerly winds. This is likely occurring due to differential mixing of the boundary layer that developed thanks to early-day cloud cover and diabatic heating contrasts. Thus far the cumulus fields are shallow, as expected, but we'll monitor trends through the afternoon. Still, as previously outlined, capping will most likely prevent thunderstorm development this afternoon.

The previous near term discussion from 1053 AM EDT follows .

Only minor changes were made to today's forecast, but observed hourly temperatures through 14 UTC were running a bit warmer than what was earlier forecast, likely due to thinning albeit still broken cloud cover. Low-level southwest flow and resulting boundary layer moisture advection will continue through the day in the developing warm sector of a surface low which is forecast to quickly advance from its position in southeastern MN at 14 UTC to southern lower Michigan by this evening. The 12 UTC Lincoln, IL, RAOB sampled a notable elevated mixed layer marked by midlevel lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km, but with significant capping at its base near 770 mb. It seems likely that considerable MLCIN will be in place through the diurnal heating cycle today across central Indiana with advection of that warm elevated mixed layer eastward atop the moistening boundary layer. That, combined with weak forcing for ascent means we will keep a dry forecast in place for the afternoon. However, it is worth noting that forecast soundings from the 12 UTC HRRR do suggest erosion of that capping layer by mid to late afternoon, so there could be a non-zero risk of convection developing. Again, though, observed trends suggest the likelihood is too low for forecast inclusion.

SHORT TERM. (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 344 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Models are close enough that the National Blend of Models initialization was accepted for most items.

A cold front will move through the area tonight. A good deal of uncertainty still remains on convective development with this front, more than there should be at this time frame. Questions on exactly when the cap will break along with where the upper energy will provide the best forcing.

Plenty of shear and instability will exist across the area (though there instability might be a little lower thanks to some mixing down of lower dewpoints, pushing them down into the upper 50s). When the cap breaks, explosive development is possible in this environment. Looks like large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats, although an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

Given the uncertainties mentioned above, will go no higher than low end likely PoPs tonight, with the highest PoPs late evening into the middle of the overnight.

Convection should be out of the area by 12Z Wednesday with drier air moving back in briefly. Expect mostly sunny skies with warm temperatures thanks to the drier air.

A stronger cold front will move in Wednesday night. Moisture will surge right along the front. The front will have good forcing with it. Will go high PoPs most areas Wednesday evening, with lower PoPs overnight as the front exits.

Shear and instability will be enough for a low end severe threat with this front.

Cold air will flow into the area Thursday and Thursday night, with an upper trough moving through. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few showers Thursday night with this trough, but confidence isn't high enough to add at this point.

LONG TERM. (Friday Through Monday) Issued at 344 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Models are close enough that the National Blend of Models initialization was accepted for most items.

Friday will see well below normal temperatures as colder air continues to flow into the area.

A system will develop this weekend which looks to bring some rain to the area, with Sunday looking to see the highest chances at the moment. Models continue to struggle with the details though, so confidence isn't great.

Another shot of cooler air will come in behind the weekend system.

AVIATION /Discussion for the 071800Z TAF Issuance/.

Issued at 159 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail this afternoon and early evening, albeit with scattered to broken cumulus decks. The risk of thunderstorm development before 03 UTC is low, but after that an approaching cold front will likely generate at least scattered thunderstorms tonight with locally sub-VFR conditions possible in any storms. Timing of the potential storms is focused on the 03 to 09 UTC time frame, but confidence in impacts at any given terminal remains too low for inclusion of more than a VCTS with the 18 UTC TAF issuance.

Late tonight and Wednesday morning confidence is increasing that MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings in stratus will follow the cold front based on the latest model guidance and trends upstream. These ceilings should lift with a return to VFR conditions by about 15 UTC Wednesday, though.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SYNOPSIS . 50 NEAR TERM . CJS SHORT TERM . 50 LONG TERM . 50 AVIATION . CJS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bloomington, Monroe County Airport, IN18 mi30 minWSW 12 G 1910.00 miA Few Clouds78°F57°F48%1007.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBMG

Wind History from BMG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8W8SW5SW5CalmCalmCalmS4SE4S5S5S5S7S5S3S4SW7SW6SW11
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1 day ago4E3CalmCalmNE3CalmE5E4NE3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4CalmCalmW7W4W5
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2 days agoW8N96N9N7N7N5N8N3N6N7N6N6N5NE5N5N7N6NE3NE4N4N5NW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Indianapolis, IN (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Indianapolis, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.