Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 1:50 AM   Moonset 11:02 AM

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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1002 Am Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Rest of today - S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 3 ft at 11 seconds. Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 11 seconds. Scattered showers after midnight. Wed - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning. Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.

ANZ400 1002 Am Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay - High pressure builds in early this morning and lingers through the remainder of the day, before a series of fronts and low pressure systems affect the east coast Wednesday through the end of the week. High pressure looks to return to end the weekend and start the new week.

FXUS61 KPHI 301052 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 652 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
Backdoor front will remain stalled over the region today. A cold front crosses through tonight and may stall over the region through Wednesday. Weak high pressure looks to influence the region Wednesday night through Friday. A cold front approaches this weekend, which may bring some unsettled weather into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Back door cold front has started to slow, and I expect it to retreat northeastward some after sunrise. None the less, most guidance still appears to be too far northeast with the placement of the front. Consequently, I went below the mean blend of guidance for high temperatures today. I expect the front should slow or even stall soon, so I don't expect it to make much further progress east, but will be watching trends closely to see if further adjustments will be needed.

In addition to temperatures, the other forecast concern today is the potential for showers and thunderstorms. As mentioned by the previous shift, the main round of showers and storms is expected with a weak cold front approaching from the west. The timing for this looks to have trended slightly later, likely 5 PM or later.
That being said, can't rule out some isolated storms developing along the first (backdoor) cold front if we are able to reach the convective temperature. This is a bit of a question as there is likely to be a stout inversion in place around 800 mb for much of the day.

All that being said, once showers and storms develop from either of the fronts mentioned above, there is a potential for strong storms with gusty winds. Model soundings show CAPE values near 1000 J/kg in areas well west of the backdoor cold front. That being said, the larger scale forcing will be coming in after peak heating, when instability will be waning. The main hazard with the stronger storms is likely to be gusty winds. In addition to bulk shear values near 30 kt, model soundings show a mid level dry layer that could promote a downburst or two. Instability within the hail growth zone is too low to suggest much of a concern with that.

Showers should weaken and decrease in coverage through the overnight hours as the front progresses further east. Depending on how much rain we get, low level stratus could develop over portions of the region late tonight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The weak cold front that comes through the region Tuesday night is forecast to stall over the region for Wednesday. This is will likely cause things to remain unsettled Wednesday before weak surface high pressure builds in for the Wednesday night time frame. Weak high pressure is then forecast to hold influence over the region into Friday. However, weak surface high pressure influence may not mean freedom from unsettled conditions. A small upper-level trough just north of the Great Lakes region Wednesday night looks to slide southeastwards with time, remaining just to our north into Thursday night. Some upper-level shortwave energy may continue to plague the region through the short term.

Slight chance and chance of PoPs for Wednesday thanks to the stalled front and lingering shortwave energy; PoPs will decrease with time Wednesday. NBM and most model guidance suggests a dry forecast for Wednesday night through Thursday night; no PoP included in the forecast. However, with the upper-level trough movement to our north and possible shortwave energy, a few stray and isolated pop-up showers should not be ruled out. If any showers do manifest Wednesday night onwards, they will not be all that impactful.

Temperatures will remain rather warm for this time of year. Looking at mostly 70s across the region for Wednesday with colder temperatures for the coastal areas. More interior and urban areas will likely get into the mid 70s. Temperatures are expected to be warmer Thursday than Wednesday. More interior and urban areas could see high temperatures around 80F Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Ensemble guidance suggests an upper-level ridge axis will be placed over the eastern CONUS Friday. This ridge axis is forecast to move eastward and breakdown with time rather slowly. Eventually, a more zonal pattern looks to take hold around the time frame of Sunday through the rest of the long term; this zonal upper-level pattern being quite slow and stagnant to change. Really the whole upper- level pattern evolution looks rather slow/stagnant and suggests a slow-to-change situation will be in place for most of the long term.

At the surface-level, a cold front well to our west Friday looks to march eastward while slowing down, and decaying some, with time.
Cold front could look to approach our region for several periods, keeping things unsettled while slowly drawing near.
Cold front may not even cross through the region until Sunday or later. Given the upper-level situation, the front may even stall over our region beyond its arrival.

Given the descriptions above, expect an unsettled and showery long term. PoPs increasing from the west Friday night into Saturday with slowing frontal approach. Chance PoPS included Saturday through Sunday night. Slight chance PoPs remaining Monday with the front possibly stalling.

Temperatures around average look to return for Friday onwards.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Low clouds, especially at KTTN, may linger through 15Z before gradually dissipating. Otherwise, VFR conditions for the bulk of the day. Winds will be mainly easterly at the TAF sites, but may vary around PHL and ACY as some SW winds try to push in for the afternoon. Winds will be 10 kt or less, though.
Moderate confidence.

Tonight...Showers and storms are expected to progress from west to east. The storms could start as early as 21Z, but more likely near or after 00Z for most of our region. Because of how close this is occuring to sunset, expect the coverage of TSRA to be very limited.
Consequently, have only mentioned SHRA in the TAFs for now. Once showers and storms decrease in coverage between 03 and 06Z, we could then see a return of low level stratus with MVFR restrictions. Winds light and variable. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR, though some sub-VFR conditions could linger in the morning.

Wednesday night thru Friday...VFR.

Friday night/Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions possible.

MARINE
Winds and seas are mostly expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. However, In the Atlantic Coastal waters of South Jersey and Delaware, seas could briefly build near 5 ft late this afternoon into this evening. Low confidence of this occuring, and even if it does, it should be just barely to criteria.
Therefore, decided not to issue an SCA at this time.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...No marine headlines anticipated.
Showers possible (20-30%) for Wednesday. Showers possible starting Friday night into the weekend.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Brigantine Channel @ Hoffman Thorofare
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:16 AM EDT     3.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:49 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:03 PM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:46 PM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Brigantine Channel @ Hoffman Thorofare, New Jersey, Tide feet

Shooting Thorofare
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Tue -- 01:01 AM EDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:44 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:48 PM EDT     2.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:41 PM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shooting Thorofare, Little Egg Inlet, New Jersey, Tide feet

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