Monday, April19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fallston, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 7:49PM Monday April 19, 2021 6:42 PM EDT (22:42 UTC) Moonrise 10:23AMMoonset 1:04AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 440 Pm Edt Mon Apr 19 2021
.gale watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 439 Pm Edt Mon Apr 19 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will pass by to the south today. High pressure will develop to the south tonight through Tuesday night ahead of a strong cold front that will approach from the northwest. The cold front will pass through the waters Wednesday and high pressure will build to the south and west through late in the week. A small craft advisory will likely be needed Tuesday into Wednesday, and a gale warning may be needed later Wednesday into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fallston, MD
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location: 39.5, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 191926 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 326 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will move off the Carolina coast this evening, then high pressure will build along the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Tuesday. A strong cold front will cross the area Wednesday. Canadian high pressure will build to from the west Wednesday night through Thursday before settling to the south late in the week. Low pressure may affect the area over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. Shortwave trough is generally along the I-95 corridor this afternoon with surface low pressure developing east of Cape Hatteras. Shield of rain associated with these systems is exiting southern Maryland. Clearing has been briefly taking place in its wake, but then cumulus quickly develop due to favorable lapse rates and lingering mid level moisture. Main question for the remainder of the afternoon is whether any showers develop in this zone of weak instability (a surface trough could also assist). So far, the showers have been confined to Pennsylvania, but some models do show them developing farther south. Therefore, have some lingering PoPs through roughly sunset. Not out of the question there could be a few lightning strikes if the showers develop, but strong storms are not expected.

Dry conditions are expected everywhere tonight as subsidence takes over behind the departing the disturbance. There may be some fog, especially in areas that received heavier rainfall (central VA to southern MD). However, most guidance isn't latching on to fog just yet. Min temps will be in the 40s for most places tonight to near 50 in downtown Washington and Baltimore. Some upper 30s are possible in colder valleys.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. High pressure will remain off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Tuesday while a trough digs over the central CONUS and Midwest along with its associated cold front. A southerly flow between these systems will develop by afternoon. Along with what should be a fair amount of sunshine, temperatures should reach the 70s in many locations. Moisture return could result in an isolated shower over the Appalachians by late afternoon, but most areas will be dry.

The cold front will approach Tuesday night as the upper-level trough strengthens a bit. Most of Tuesday night should be dry, but a few showers are possible, especially across western areas closer to the front. Tuesday night will turn out mild due to the southerly flow ahead of the approaching cold front.

The potent upper-level trough will dig overhead Wednesday through Wednesday night. The surface low associated with this will strengthen and track to our north while a cold front passes through our area Wednesday before moving offshore Wednesday evening. Showers will likely develop along the front (with a possible minimum in the immediate lee of the Appalachians during the morning), with some embedded thunderstorms possible as the front encounters higher instability east of the Blue Ridge during the midday hours. The forcing along the front will be strong, so a line of gusty showers are possible with the frontal passage mainly east of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains, and the highest chance will be closer to the Baltimore metro where forcing/instability will ultimately be highest. The severe weather threat will be dependent on the timing of the front. Currently, the timing is fairly fast, resulting in limited instability. However, subtle changes could result in a greater risk of strong/damaging winds with the showers and storms, so stay tuned. Regardless of precipitation, strong west to northwest winds will follow the frontal passage, and temperatures will start falling. Frequent gusts around 25 to 40 mph are expected, and it's not out of the question a Wind Advisory could be needed for some areas. Any lingering precipitation along/west of the Allegheny Front could start mixing with/changing over to snow. Accumulations will be minimal, however.

The upper-level trough will remain overhead Wednesday night allowing for more blustery and chilly conditions for this time of year. A few mountain snow showers are possible, and isolated snow or rain shower may even spill east of the mountain. Any accumulation should be light due to limited moisture and confined to the ridges. Min temperatures will end up in the lower and middle 30s for most places with 20s in the mountains. Freeze headlines may be warranted.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. An anomalous upper-level trough will linger overhead most of Thursday before finally moving offshore Thursday night. Forecast 850 mb temps are -5 to -9 C much of Thursday. At the surface, this translates to highs in the 50s for much of the region, with upper 30s and low 40s across the higher terrain. The well below normal April temperatures coupled with blustery WNW winds will make it feel like late February or early March. A few lingering upslope snow showers are possible Thursday morning across the higher ridges of the Allegheny Front.

Temperatures rebound closer to average Friday due to a return flow as high pressure builds to the south. Friday should remain dry. Remaining seasonable on Saturday as the region of high pressure moves offshore.

The next system moves in Saturday night as an upper-level trough swings east into the Great Lakes. Ensemble guidance is in agreement with a region of low pressure forming ahead of the trough and moving either over or just south of the region Saturday night into Sunday. This system could be one of the bigger rain producers in recent weeks with ensemble guidance showing 0.50-1.00" areawide. The exact track of the low will ultimately determine QPF amounts, but there is some Gulf moisture to work with. Do not currently anticipate widespread flooding issues due to preceding dry conditions. Strong winds are also possible with this system. Temperatures will not decrease behind this system as much as the Wednesday/Thursday system due to the Pacific roots of this system.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Low pressure is moving off the Carolina coast while a surface trough axis approaches from the west. While flight conditions will be VFR (though with some SCT to BKN stratocumulus), wind direction could be quite variable this afternoon and evening. Will also have to be mindful of isolated to scattered showers developing in the trough axis. The highest probabilities for this seem to be in the vicinity of IAD, but can't rule it out elsewhere. Thunder can't be ruled out, but is a very low chance.

VFR conditions are expected most of the time tonight through Tuesday night. However, low clouds and fog cannot be ruled out tonight, especially at DCA/BWI/MTN. Hinted at this with a FEW group, but most guidance is not explicitly predicting this . it's mainly from a conceptual standpoint. Light winds tonight will become southerly by Tuesday afternoon.

A strong cold front will pass through Wednesday, likely bringing some showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm (best chance across the I-95 corridor). Gusty winds are expected behind the cold front later Wednesday into Wednesday night. Frequent gusts of 25 to 35 knots are expected during this time.

VFR conditions at the terminals Thursday and Friday with a gusty westerly wind.

MARINE. Low pressure is moving off the Carolina this afternoon. SCA is in effect for the southern waters south of Drum Point and south of Cobb Island due to northerly flow around the low.

The gradient will weaken for tonight through Tuesday, but winds should pick up out of the southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. An SCA will likely be needed for portions of the waters during this time. Gusty west to northwest winds are expected behind a strong cold front Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night and a Gale Warning may be needed for portions of the waters during this time. There's also potential for a line of gusty showers/isolated thunderstorms around midday Wednesday with the cold front.

SCA winds are likely Thursday due to the strong westerly flow, though a Gale Warning cannot be ruled out. SCA conditions could last into Friday as a weaker, but still gusty southerly wind develops.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Anomalies are expected to remain around a foot above normal at times through early Wednesday. Water levels could reach caution stages for sensitive areas with the high tide cycles Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Minor flooding cannot be ruled out, but confidence is low due to the light flow.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ534- 537-543.

SYNOPSIS . ADS NEAR TERM . ADS SHORT TERM . ADS LONG TERM . CPB AVIATION . ADS/CPB MARINE . ADS/CPB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . ADS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 17 mi54 min SSE 8 G 11 58°F 55°F1010.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 19 mi54 min ESE 9.9 G 12 57°F 1010.7 hPa
FSNM2 19 mi54 min ESE 11 G 12 57°F 1010.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 24 mi54 min SSW 8 G 11 1011.1 hPa
CPVM2 35 mi54 min 55°F 49°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 36 mi54 min 57°F 1010.7 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 37 mi48 min 12 G 16 53°F 56°F1012.4 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 37 mi54 min W 1.9 G 6 60°F 59°F1011.1 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 42 mi42 min SSE 9.9 G 11 54°F 56°F1012.2 hPa (-0.0)48°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 49 mi54 min SW 2.9 G 7 61°F 1010.6 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 49 mi54 min 62°F 58°F1010.2 hPa

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD12 mi47 minESE 710.00 miFair59°F48°F68%1011.5 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD18 mi44 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F45°F58%1010.8 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD23 mi48 minSE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F42°F50%1010.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTN

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SE4----CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmSE4S5SE9S9SE7SE8SE7
1 day agoW7W5W6--W4W3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W6W5SW5SW7--CalmE7SE6SE6S7
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Tide / Current Tables for Bowley Bar, Middle River, Maryland
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Bowley Bar
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:09 AM EDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:34 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:19 PM EDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:44 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.110.90.70.50.40.40.50.711.31.51.61.61.41.210.80.60.50.50.60.7

Tide / Current Tables for Battery Point, Gunpowder River, Maryland
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Battery Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:22 AM EDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:01 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:32 PM EDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:11 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.11.110.80.60.50.40.50.60.91.21.41.61.61.51.31.10.90.70.60.50.50.7

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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