Tuesday, August11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mystic Island, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:59PM Tuesday August 11, 2020 3:15 PM EDT (19:15 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:38PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 101 Pm Edt Tue Aug 11 2020
.dense fog advisory in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon...
This afternoon..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Areas of dense fog early. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 3 seconds.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 4 seconds.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 4 seconds.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 4 seconds, becoming mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds after midnight.
Thu..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Fri night..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 101 Pm Edt Tue Aug 11 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A weak area of high pressure will translate further offshore today, while a cold front approaches our area tonight into Wednesday. This front is then expected to stall and eventually wash out in the vicinity of our area late this week. SEveral generally weak areas of low pressure will develop and track along this front through the weekend, as high pressure builds towards our north


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mystic Island, NJ
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location: 39.54, -74.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 111703 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 103 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak area of high pressure will translate further offshore today, while a cold front approaches our area tonight into Wednesday. This front is then expected to stall and eventually wash out in the vicinity of our area late this week. Several generally weak areas of low pressure will develop and track along this front through the weekend, as high pressure builds towards our north

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Midday Update .

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed mainly over southern NJ and southern DE. As expected, it is loosely organized activity with very little shear in place. Brief heavy downpours and locally gusty winds are possible in any of the heavier cells, but coverage should remain widely scattered.

Otherwise, a warm and very humid afternoon is in progress. Heat index values will remain in the mid to upper 90s in many areas, with some relief found in any areas that see the downpours. Little change to the going forecast.

Morning Update .

Morning fog and stratus continues to gradually lift and dissipate, though it has not entirely scattered out yet as of mid morning. Should see what remains scatter out by noontime and mostly before then. Otherwise, little change with this update, just minor tweaks to the PoPs for today and no changes to the temperatures. Expect isolated to widely scattered pulse convection to begin developing near or shortly after noon, but not likely to be a big issue overall Previous discussion/forecast reasoning follows.

Synoptically, we start the day similar to yesterday, with weak mid and upper level ridge over us and light low level southerly flow. However, a mid and upper level short wave trough is expected to approach our region through the day. That, combined with remnant anvil cirrus clouds (left over from the large convective complex over the Mid West on Monday), should result in more cloud cover through the day. Consequently, this may help to keep temperatures a degree or two below highs on Monday. Regardless, with the humidity, it looks like another day of heat index values in the upper 90s.

As for rain chances, we should have adequate instability and very little in the way of convective inhibition. However,there will be limited synoptic scale lift, even with the short wave trough approaching. Therefore, any convective initiation will require lift with a sea breeze or terrain effects over southeastern PA and northwestern NJ. Another limiting factor today is wind shear. Flow is almost entirely unidirectional all the way through the troposphere, and with the mid and upper level jets remaining well to our north there is very little in the way of speed shear too. Therefore, expect any convection through the day to be pulse and poorly organized.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/. The cold front approaches the region overnight, especially after midnight. It is unclear if it will actually reach our region before sunrise, but if it does, it is likely to just barely get into the southern Poconos and Northwest New Jersey. We could see a line of convection associated with this cold front move into the region overnight, but wind shear will still be limited, so that could limit how organized the convection is, especially given the timing overnight with limited instability.

We could have extensive mid level clouds ahead of the front which could help to limit fog development (unlike what we have seen the last few nights).

As mentioned above, the front will just barely get into our region, if at all, and the temperature gradient with this front is weak, so we aren't expecting a significant impact on temperatures overnight. Most locations will have lows in the lower to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Summary . Generally humid and unsettled for the end of the workweek. A bit cooler with more uncertain precipitation chances this weekend into early next week.

Synoptic Overview .

The start of the long term will feature a a pair of H5 ridges centered over the SW and SE US, while to the north of these features a generally zonal flow will prevail, interrupted by occasional intrusions of northern branch shortwave troughs and ridges. For our area the most impactful shortwave is currently centered over OK/KS, and this wave will slowly progress eastward over the next few days with numerous vort maxes ejecting eastward from it towards the end of this week. A temporary pattern change looks likely by the start of next week as the SW US ridge amplifies, resulting in downstream amplification of broad troughing over eastern North America.

At the surface the main story for the start of the extended will be a cold front which will stall and wash out in our general vicinity mid to late week. Various waves of low pressure will form along the front likely inducing some latitudinal oscillation of the boundary through the week. A rather amplified shortwave ridge to our north will foster somewhat impressive (at least by August standards) anticyclogenesis over eastern Canada late this week, and this high will gradually progress eastward into the Canadian maritimes by this weekend. E-NE flow on the southern periphery of this high may be enough to push the diffuse boundary south of our area by the weekend which may result in a reprieve from the generally unsettled weather as early as perhaps Saturday (but possibly later).

Dailies .

Wednesday . The front will be more or less over our area on Wednesday, and the usual moisture (2 + inch PWATS)/instability (likely 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) pooling near the boundary should result in fairly widespread thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. Tend to think the main threat with any storms would be hydro given the slow storm motion combined with favorable moisture parameters (12-14k ft WCL), but some wet microbursts from unorganized convection is also possible (shear will be very weak). The most likely chance for convection will likely be near the boundary/confluence zone which right now appears to be over the central part of our area for the prime convective timing. That being said didn't get overly cute with PoPs given that even in the last 24 hours guidance has waffled with the speed of the boundary. Temps are a bit uncertain Wednesday due to precipitation but generally think most locations will warm up into the upper 80s before convection really gets going.

Thursday/Friday . The boundary will remain in our general vicinity in this period, so expect generally unsettled weather to close the workweek. Some guidance (like the NAM and UKMET) push the boundary into Delmarva by Thursday and mostly confine precipitation to the southern third of our area. However the GFS/Euro indicate aren't quite as bullish with the drying up north, so only made modest adjustments to PoPs to hint at a general north-south gradient. By Friday temperatures should decrease notably (likely maxing out in the low-mid 80s) as onshore flow takes over (due to both the Canadian High and perhaps a frontal low to our south).

Saturday-Monday . The GFS/EC both depict a stronger frontal low taking shape to our south this weekend, and this low combined with NE flow associated with the Canadian High may be enough to push the (now rather nebulous) boundary away from our area. Still retained Chc PoPs for this time period as guidance often does a poor job positioning these fronts/frontal lows in the medium range but confidence is increasing that at least by Sunday/Monday we should see some drying. Continued onshore flow and likely some continued cloud cover should keep temps in check with highs generally in the low to mid 80s.

AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today . Mostly VFR. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible especially near PNE and TTN. Winds mainly south or south- southwest at 5 to 10 kt, but will back from the southeast near the coast. High confidence overall.

Tonight . Mostly VFR conditions are expected. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms, primarily near and west of KABE and KRDG. Also, if the low stratus off the coast is persistent overnight, it could progress further inland towards KACY. For now given the uncertainty have kept the forecast VFR. Light (less than 5 kt) southerly winds. Low confidence on most aspects of the forecast.

Outlook . Wednesday . The chance of restrictions due to showers and thunderstorms will increase Wednesday afternoon, particularly for ABE, RDG, and the I-95 terminals. Southerly winds 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Thursday and Friday . Periodic restrictions possible through this period with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Southerly- Southeasterly winds mostly 10 knots or less. High confidence on at least some storms; low confidence on timing and intensity.

Saturday . Still a chance of showers and thunderstorms but perhaps a bit lower than Thursday/Friday. Easterly-Northeasterly winds around 10 kts. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Winds and seas should stay below Small Craft Advisory conditions today and tonight.

There is a small patch of low clouds and fog over the Delaware Bay and coastal Delaware and southern NJ waters. This could expand through the day, but confidence is low for now. Based on webcams at the shore, it looks like visibility is less than one mile, so have issued a marine dense fog advisory for these areas. The fog should persist through mid day, and some guidance shows it persisting through the afternoon, but I'm not confident it will persist that long.

Outlook . Wednesday through Saturday . Winds and seas should stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Friday, however increasing onshore winds and seas may require an SCA on Saturday. Thunderstorms are possible, especially towards the end of the week, which could produce locally higher winds and waves.

Rip Currents . The low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is expected to continue through tomorrow. Southerly and southeasterly winds around 10 MPH are expected. Breaking waves are forecast to be less than 2 feet with a medium period swell from the southeast.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ450>454.

Synopsis . Carr Near Term . Johnson/O'Brien Short Term . Johnson Long Term . Carr Aviation . Carr/Johnson/O'Brien Marine . Carr/Johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 4 mi46 min SSE 9.9 87°F 1016 hPa76°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 13 mi58 min 75°F 75°F1016.2 hPa
44091 37 mi50 min 73°F1 ft
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi40 min SE 6 G 7 82°F 77°F1013.6 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi46 min S 7 G 8.9 81°F 79°F1014.5 hPa
BDSP1 48 mi46 min 84°F 1014.3 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 48 mi46 min 93°F 77°F1013.4 hPa

Wind History for Burlington, Delaware River, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ11 mi82 minS 710.00 miA Few Clouds87°F73°F63%1015 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACY

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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2 days agoE6SE9E8SE6SE4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3Calm3--S10S8
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Tide / Current Tables for Graveling Point, New Jersey
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Graveling Point
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Tue -- 02:22 AM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:51 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:48 PM EDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:55 PM EDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.62.92.82.521.410.70.60.91.42.12.73.13.232.521.61.2111.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:00 AM EDT     1.45 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:44 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:49 AM EDT     -1.66 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:24 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:15 PM EDT     1.78 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:20 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:37 PM EDT     -1.71 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.51.20.5-0.2-0.8-1.3-1.6-1.7-1.3-0.40.61.31.81.610.2-0.4-1-1.4-1.6-1.7-1.2-0.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.