Wednesday, February24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mystic Island, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 5:46PM Wednesday February 24, 2021 9:29 PM EST (02:29 UTC) Moonrise 3:47PMMoonset 6:10AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 703 Pm Est Wed Feb 24 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Fri..N winds around 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely after midnight.
Sat..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain likely.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Rain likely.
Sun night..S winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 703 Pm Est Wed Feb 24 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front approaching from the west is forecast to pass through eastern pennsylvania, eastern maryland, delaware and new jersey late tonight. High pressure should then build across our region on Thursday and Friday. A warm front is expected to lift through our area on Saturday, followed quickly by a weak cold front on Saturday evening. An ill-defined area of low pressure is anticipated to ride along the front and it should affect our weather on Sunday. Another cold front is forecast to arrive from the northwest early on Monday with high pressure influencing our region on Tuesday. Low pressure may approach from the west and southwest on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mystic Island, NJ
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location: 39.54, -74.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 250153 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 853 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will cross our region overnight. High pressure should then build across our region on Thursday and Friday. A warm front is expected to lift through our area on Saturday, followed quickly by a weak cold front on Saturday evening. An ill- defined area of low pressure is anticipated to ride along the front and it should affect our weather on Sunday. Another cold front is forecast to arrive from the northwest early on Monday with high pressure influencing our region on Tuesday. Low pressure may approach from the west and southwest on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/.

A cold front crossing western and central Pennsylvania presently will continue eastward overnight. The front will pass east of the area by dawn. Scattered showers which have developed in the airmass preceding the front will mostly move north and west of the Delaware valley, so the southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley and north-most NJ may see some activity overnight. Amounts will be light and will probably go unnoticed for the most part.

Once the cold front moves through, cold air advection ramps up however the airmass is not forecast to be all that cold. As a result, temperatures tonight will be on the milder side for much of the night especially as at least some breeze should be maintained with some increase anticipated post-frontal.

For Thursday, the aforementioned cold front will settle well to our south as surface high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley and toward our region. Lingering cold air advection in the morning is forecast to weaken as the flow aloft turns more zonal. A tight pressure gradient through about midday should result in a noticeable breeze, although this is expected to wane during the afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes due to incoming high pressure. While the afternoon temperatures will be much cooler than today's, they are expected to top out right about where they should be for this time of year (some areas even a bit above the average).

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. The weather pattern will remain progressive during the period from Thursday night through Saturday.

Surface high pressure is forecast to build from the Ohio River Valley on Thursday night to the waters off New Jersey and Long Island on Friday. A mid level short wave trough approaching from the northwest is expected to pass overhead early on Friday. However, it should have limited moisture associated with it. As a result, we are anticipating nothing more than scattered clouds for Thursday night and Friday along with seasonable temperatures.

As the mid level flow backs to the west southwest for Friday night and Saturday, a couple weak short waves are anticipated to pass overhead, one on Friday night and the other around midday on Saturday. At the surface, a warm front is forecast to lift slowly through our region on Saturday with a weak cold front following from the west on Saturday evening.

Clouds will be on the increase on Friday night, and light precipitation will likely spread into our region from the west and southwest after midnight. Temperatures should be cold enough for the event to begin as frozen precipitation from around the Interstate 95 Corridor northwestward. All rain is anticipated near the coast.

A developing 40+ knot low level southwesterly jet should help to erode the cold air trapped near the surface on Saturday. The wintry precipitation is expected to gradually change to rain from southeast to northwest, even in the Pocono Region by early afternoon. Any snow and ice accumulation in eastern Pennsylvania and in northern New Jersey should be light.

Liquid precipitation totals from this event should favor the 0.2 to 0.4 inch range in our region, so there is no concern for flooding even with the ongoing snowmelt.

Temperatures on Saturday are expected to rise into the 50s on the coastal plain, and into the 40s inland as the wind veers from the southeast to the southwest.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A wave of low pressure is expected to ride along the slowly departing cold front on Sunday. As a result, we are anticipating another round of precipitation. The forecast temperature profiles suggest an all rain event for our region on Sunday. We should be able to handle the currently expected amounts, a half inch to an inch in eastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey, and less than a half inch in eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. However, if the axis of heaviest rain begins to shift northward we may see the potential for some localized minor flooding in those areas.

A mid level short wave along with its associated surface cold front should kick the moisture off the coast early on Monday. A gradual clearing trend and seasonable temperatures are anticipated for Monday. A secondary shot of cold air is expected for Tuesday with temperatures dropping below normal.

The Canadian and the ECMWF are hinting at a coastal system for Wednesday, while the GFS is not. For now, we have included a chance of precipitation at that time. There could be enough lingering cold air to result in a wintry mix (if the event occurs) mainly from the Interstate 95 Corridor northwestward.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Mainly VFR, though a period of midlevel clouds and possibly even some sprinkles will occur between about 02z and 06z. Main issue will be southwesterly low-level wind shear, which will approach 50 kt up to 2000 feet through 06z before diminishing as a cold front moves through. Surface winds will range from southerly to southwesterly 5 to 15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt or so before frontal passage (coinciding with the lowering clouds). Winds will quickly switch to west or northwest after the front moves through. Speeds and gusts will likely remain similar through the overnight hours, though there may be a period of enhanced winds just after frontal passage. Moderate confidence.

Thursday . VFR with northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. High confidence.

Thursday night . VFR with light northwest winds becoming more variable after midnight. High confidence.

Outlook .

Friday . VFR. Variable wind less than 10 knots. High confidence.

Saturday . MVFR/IFR conditions in rain. A wintry mix is possible in the morning, mainly around KRDG and KABE. Southeast wind around 10 knots becoming southwest. Medium confidence.

Sunday . MVFR/IFR conditions in rain. Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Monday . MVFR conditions early improving to VFR. Northwest to west wind increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Medium confidence.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisory extended to mid-morning Thursday for Delaware Bay and through early afternoon Thursday for the New Jersey and Delaware Atlantic coastal waters. Southerly flow ahead of a cold front will shift to the west and northwest overnight into Thursday. A robust low-level jet on the order of 50 knots moves across the area mostly during the early overnight period. The air mass in place is rather mild which will reduce the mixing some over the colder waters, therefore gale force gusts are not anticipated with the presence of the low-level jet. The winds however will remain gusty Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon in the wake of the cold front as cold air advection occurs allowing for better mixing for a time. The winds and seas will subside Thursday afternoon.

Outlook .

Thursday night through Friday night . No marine headlines are anticipated.

Saturday . Southerly wind 15 to 20 knots gusting near 25 knots.

Saturday night and Sunday . Even though wind gusts should fall below 25 knots, wave heights on our ocean waters may remain around 5 feet.

Sunday night and Monday . No marine headlines are anticipated.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Iovino Near Term . Gorse/PO Short Term . Iovino Long Term . Iovino Aviation . CMS/Iovino Marine . Gorse/Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 4 mi59 min ESE 13 47°F 1012 hPa42°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 13 mi59 min 43°F 41°F1011.8 hPa
44091 36 mi63 min 41°F4 ft
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi53 min SSW 5.1 G 7 48°F 36°F1009 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi59 min SW 1.9 G 6 47°F 36°F1009.8 hPa
BDSP1 48 mi59 min 49°F 36°F1009.4 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 48 mi59 min 49°F 36°F1009.3 hPa

Wind History for Burlington, Delaware River, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ11 mi35 minSSW 1010.00 miFair48°F40°F74%1010.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACY

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW8W9W6SW5W6SW5W7W7W5W5W8W8SW8SW10SW11
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2 days agoSW3CalmSW4S5S4S5S6S6S8S9S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Graveling Point, New Jersey
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Graveling Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:20 AM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:10 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:01 AM EST     3.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:12 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:44 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:37 PM EST     2.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.411.82.63.13.33.22.72.11.40.80.300.20.91.72.42.82.92.621.30.7

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:29 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:23 AM EST     2.23 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:10 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:52 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:53 AM EST     -2.53 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:44 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:50 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:09 PM EST     1.65 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:43 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:14 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:58 PM EST     -2.11 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-0.60.61.62.22.11.50.7-0.1-0.9-1.6-2.3-2.5-2-10.21.21.61.40.90.2-0.6-1.3-1.8

Weather Map
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