Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Havre de Grace, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:37PM Saturday July 4, 2020 8:35 PM EDT (00:35 UTC) Moonrise 7:27PMMoonset 3:58AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 737 Pm Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Isolated showers and tstms this evening.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 737 Pm Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak backdoor boundary will stall southwest of the waters today and it will weaken tonight into Sunday. High pressure over the atlantic will control the weather pattern for the early and middle portion of next week. Low pressure will pass by to the south during this time.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Havre de Grace, MD
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location: 39.54, -76.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 041837 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 237 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak backdoor boundary remains stalled over the region, and will dissipate overnight into Sunday. High pressure will build overhead at the surface and aloft for the early and middle portions of next week, bringing hot and humid conditions to the area. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms remain however.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Current temperatures across much of the region in the low 90s, with dewpoints in the low 70s are making for quite the muggy afternoon. Heat indices nearing the upper 90s to 100 in a few spots. Convergence line is evident on both visible satellite and surface obs in the wind field roughly along the I-95 corridor. This is where any convection that does occur today will. Have decrease POPs this afternoon, with max values around 30% now. Coverage has just struggle thus far, as was thought, given the amount of dry air aloft. That being said, have seen a few showers pop up and try to get going, before quickly dying down. No lightning at this point either. While a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this afternoon/evening, think that it is really going to be hard to get any significant updrafts going at this point.

MLCAPE values over the region are generally in the 1500-2000 J/kg range. Dry air aloft has DCAPE values in excess of 1200 J/kg as well, which would generally be very concerning. However, in this case, only if we manage to get a tall updraft through all that dry air will it be a problem. Just not seeing that happen at this point. Shear is around 20 knots or so, making things even harder to get organized. So, in summary, the threat is non-zero for some gusty winds with any thunderstorms that manage to get tall, but just don't see that as a high probability today.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Upper level ridge will build towards the region Sunday and Monday. This, paired with southerly surface flow, will lead to continued hot and humid conditions across the region. Highs will remain in the mid 90s both days, with lows only into the low 70s for most, with upper 60s over the higher elevations.

Continued heat and humidity, paired with a weak pressure trough, bay/river breezes and the terrain circulation, could spark off showers and storms each day. Storms would be isolated to widely scattered in coverage each day though, as the ridge aloft will make it a little harder to really get convection going. Gusty winds and heavy rain will be possible with any storms that do develop.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Overall good agreement amongst guidance concerning the long term. Upper level ridging along most of the southern CONUS with the jet stream displaced along the US/Canada border persists throughout much of next week. High pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic will keep conditions mainly dry through Wednesday. Overall conditions are expected to remain hot and humid with temperatures in the 90s and dew points in the 70s. Given the amount of heat and moisture, cannot fully rule out the chances for afternoon convection. There will be a lack of any significant forcing, thus expect any showers/thunderstorms to be widely scattered and brief at best.

Meanwhile, a weak cut-off low will meander over the southeastern CONUS before shifting offshore late Wednesday into Thursday. While the low is expected to remain mainly offshore, there is moderate spread on how close the low comes to the Potomac which could cause more widespread showers/thunderstorms to occur. Regardless, the influx of additional moisture from an easterly flow will keep convection potential elevated through the end of the week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. VFR conditions generally expected for the rest of the day, but isolated to widely scattered storms in the area of DCA and CHO could cause some brief restrictions this afternoon/evening. Best chance for storms remains in the 18-22z timeframe for DCA, but CHO could linger a little later into the evening and perhaps even into the overnight hours. Winds will start out light out of the north before gradually switching around to light out of the east during the afternoon and evening hours.

Skies clear as we head into the overnight hours, with some fog possible at MRB and CHO, as winds become very light to calm overnight. Could even see a chance of fog at IAD, should winds go calm, but uncertainty still remains there, so leaving that chance out at this point.

Another chance for showers and storms Sunday and Monday across the forecast area, which could lead to restrictions at any of the terminals during the afternoon/evening. Generally VFR otherwise though.

Chances for lower CIG/VSBYs will remain present in regards to patchy early morning fog. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. While conditions are expected to remain mostly dry, chances for afternoon convection persist throughout much of next week.

MARINE. Light winds out of the northeast will generally turn to southeasterly overnight. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms this afternoon/evening, which could lead to brief bouts of gusty wind and heavy rain, as with any storm, so an SMW or two can't be ruled out today.

A southerly gradient wind should remain below SCA criteria most of the time Sunday through Wednesday. However, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours each day, and locally gusty winds are possible in any thunderstorm that develops.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A light southerly flow will develop tonight into Sunday, and it will persist through early next week. This will cause water levels to be elevated. Minor flooding is possible at sensitive areas, beginning with the high tide cycle later tonight and continuing into early next week. However, confidence is low because the flow will be light.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . CJL NEAR TERM . CJL/KJP SHORT TERM . CJL LONG TERM . MSS AVIATION . MSS/CJL MARINE . MSS/CJL/BJL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . BJL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 15 mi47 min 82°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 24 mi53 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 84°F 84°F1012.3 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 27 mi47 min S 6 G 8.9 80°F 78°F1012.6 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 27 mi47 min 83°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 32 mi47 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 85°F 79°F1011.8 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 32 mi47 min S 5.1 G 5.1 85°F 1012 hPa
FSNM2 32 mi59 min S 4.1 G 6 1012.2 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 40 mi47 min 82°F
CPVM2 41 mi47 min 84°F 72°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 41 mi53 min 77°F 1013.4 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 44 mi47 min 86°F 1011.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 48 mi35 min S 1 G 1 83°F 81°F1013.3 hPa (-0.5)70°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD6 mi97 minSSE 310.00 miFair86°F66°F52%1012.1 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD22 mi1.7 hrsS 410.00 miA Few Clouds86°F66°F52%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3N4N5CalmE7N4N3CalmCalmNE4NE5E6E5E4E3CalmE6E9E5CalmSE6SE3SE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW3CalmNW3NW3N3N5N3N6N6N5NW4N4N6W4NW5CalmNW3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N6N5N5CalmNW5E3NE4W5N6NW6NW5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2)
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:12 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:53 AM EDT     3.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:40 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:58 PM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.70.50.30.40.81.42.22.83.33.43.332.521.510.70.70.91.31.71.81.7

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:26 AM EDT     -2.48 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:25 AM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:17 AM EDT     2.40 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:17 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:17 PM EDT     -1.42 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:18 PM EDT     0.05 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:08 PM EDT     1.91 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:32 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.4-2.4-2.2-1.8-11.32.12.42.321.50.7-1.1-1.4-1.3-1.1-0.611.61.91.71.1-1-1.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.