Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Quinton, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:22PM Saturday March 28, 2020 3:52 PM EDT (19:52 UTC) Moonrise 8:12AMMoonset 10:32PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 106 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
This afternoon..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 3 ft early in the evening, then 2 ft or less. A chance of rain early in the evening. A chance of drizzle. Patchy fog in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Areas of fog in the morning. A chance of drizzle early in the morning. A chance of showers late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers until early morning.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 106 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure located in new england early this morning will slide to the southeast and out to sea today. A warm front is forecast to approach slowly from the southwest and south through tonight. The boundary is expected to extend across northeastern maryland, delaware and southern new jersey on Sunday. Low pressure is anticipated to develop in or near our region late on Sunday before moving off the coast on Sunday night. A cold front is expected to follow from the west on Monday afternoon. Weak high pressure should influence our weather on Tuesday. Low pressure is forecast to pass off the north carolina coast on Tuesday night with high pressure returning to our region for Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front may approach from the west late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Quinton, NJ
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location: 39.55, -75.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 281742 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 142 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will move slowly northward through the Mid-Atlantic tonight and Sunday. Meanwhile, a strong surface low in the central Plains will lift northeast toward the Great Lakes on Sunday, with secondary low development near the East Coast. A cold front will sweep through the region Sunday night, with a reinforcing front moving through on Monday. Another surface low will move through the Southeast on Tuesday and off the Carolina coast by Wednesday. High pressure will build into the Northeast Wednesday night and Thursday. Another system may affect the region Friday or Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Showers are moving through the region early this afternoon, with some elevated storms on the southern fringe of the precipitation shield. With mesoanalysis still indicating marginal elevated instability through the afternoon, have extended mention of thunder through the day across most of the area. The showers are expected to diminish in coverage later today as stronger low- level lift via warm advection and frontogenesis wanes. However, hi-res models are not handling the precipitation affecting the area so far today particularly well. As such, kept PoPs fairly high north of the I-76 corridor through late afternoon before trending them down from south to north through the evening.

A zonally-oriented baroclinic zone developing across the central/southern Mid-Atlantic today will be reinforced on the north side by weak onshore flow. With considerable large-scale ascent in the northern Mid-Atlantic via a series of midlevel perturbations moving through, a weak wave will likely develop in vicinity of this baroclinic zone. This will only serve to strengthen the temperature gradient through the next 24 hours as cyclonic flow encourages increased onshore winds to its north/west. As a result, a decent setup for cold-air damming exists overnight in much of the area. In the wake of stronger lift/precipitation this afternoon, this sets the stage for overnight fog/drizzle, with model soundings strongly indicative of this potential. Added mention of fog everywhere overnight, and will need to watch closely if areas of dense fog develop. Would like to see this afternoon's precipitation and synoptic/mesoscale evolution before adding such mention to the forecast.

Temperatures will remain steady overnight with low clouds, drizzle, and fog persisting. A rise in temperatures late in the night is possible in the far southern CWA, in closest proximity to the strengthening warm front.

The main forecast challenge for Sunday is the ultimate positioning of the warm front, with models very likely too aggressive with its northward push. A strong surface low will begin to weaken as it becomes vertically stacked over the Great Lakes region. A cold front will extend eastward then southward from the low and surge toward the area during the day as a strong midlevel jet streak races northeastward to the Northeast. As a result, the warm front should lift northward during the day, but I suspect the ageostrophic contribution to the onshore flow via upslope is being underplayed. Confidence is high enough to keep the northern CWA quite chilly tomorrow (around or below 50), whereas southern Delmarva will approach 80. Of course, temperatures in between are the tricky part and will ultimately depend on very short-term trends/guidance. In other words, expect the temperature forecast to be susceptible to considerable error in portions of the CWA. To illustrate, the latest MET MOS for PHL is 57 for tomorrow, and the latest MAV MOS projects 70. Even worse for GED: 66 versus 84. Yikes. For now, the forecast is generally weighted toward the colder NAM- based guidance but with some input from statistical guidance as well.

The wind profile in the region tomorrow will be quite impressive, with 0-6 km bulk wind difference exceeding 60 kt and helicity approaching 300 J/kg (with considerable curvature in the low-level winds), especially near the warm front. Convection-allowing models depict isolated to widely scattered storms developing near the front as it advances toward the area late in the day. With instability increasing in the warm sector (e.g., NAM Nest showing SBCAPE exceeding 1000-1500 J/kg), these storms may become severe, especially if updrafts are able to sustain themselves. However, the overall sparse coverage in guidance suggests this threat is conditional. Will be watching this potential closely, to be sure.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Developing low pressure in our vicinity on Sunday evening should move out to sea on Sunday night and Monday. Meanwhile, low pressure in the Great Lakes region should weaken as it drifts eastward. The low is forecast to pull a cold front through eastern Pennsylvania, northeastern Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey on Monday afternoon. We are expecting some lingering showers on Sunday evening, mainly on the coastal plain, as the low pulls away from our area. Also, while Monday's cold front should have limited moisture associated with it, the system could bring a few light rain showers to our northern counties.

High pressure is expected to nudge into our region from the north on Tuesday. We are forecasting mainly dry weather. However, an impulse in the cyclonic mid level flow could bring a few light showers to the northern part of our region.

Low pressure is anticipated to move across the southeastern states on Tuesday before passing off the Carolina Coast on Tuesday night. An inverted trough is forecast to extend northward into the northeastern states. As a result, we have a chance of rain for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rainfall amounts should be rather light. Temperatures may be borderline for producing a little snow in the elevated terrain of the Poconos from late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pressure is expected to build across the southeastern states on Wednesday night and Thursday. The northern fringe of the air mass should bring mainly dry weather to our region. A cold front and some rain showers approaching from the west may affect our weather on Friday.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Periods of showers and possibly a storm (generally south/west of PHL), with CIGs generally MVFR and VSBYs briefly becoming sub-VFR in the heavier precipitation. There will be lengthy breaks between the showers, where conditions will likely improve somewhat. However, the general trend will be for worsening conditions with time through the day. Winds generally easterly around or below 10 kt, though will be erratic around precipitation. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . Expecting periods of drizzle, fog, or even showers overnight with conditions primarily IFR or worse. Winds light east to northeast. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . IFR/LIFR should improve to at least MVFR by afternoon. Winds E/SE 5-10 knots most of the day becoming southerly late day. Low confidence.

Outlook.

Sunday night . Any lingering MVFR conditions, improving to VFR. West wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence. Monday . Mainly VFR. West to northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Medium confidence.

Monday night . Mainly VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Tuesday . Mainly VFR. North wind 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Medium confidence.

Tuesday night . VFR/MVFR ceilings with a chance of rain. East to northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Wednesday . VFR/MVFR ceilings with a chance of rain. Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Medium confidence.

MARINE. Winds have increased and are approaching advisory criteria on the Atlantic waters this afternoon. However, it is possible that the southern NJ/DE Atlantic waters fall just short of widespread advisory conditions. Will continue the advisory here for now, but will monitor observations closely this afternoon. Sub- advisory conditions are expected thereafter through Sunday, though seas just under 5 feet will likely continue.

Farther north, winds will increase this afternoon, with seas approaching 5 feet this evening. Expect a period of seas around 5 feet or so through tomorrow before seas subside Sunday night.

Perhaps the bigger threat for marine interests is fog potential tonight. A favorable setup of onshore flow and fairly high dew points should allow areas of fog to develop on the waters overnight. Fog may become dense enough for the issuance of an advisory and may occur through most of the overnight into Sunday morning.

Finally, isolated storms this afternoon may produce small hail and erratic wind gusts in their proximity. Additional storms are possible late Sunday afternoon, with a higher likelihood for strong wind gusts.

Outlook.

Sunday night through Tuesday evening . No marine headlines are anticipated.

Late Tuesday night and Wednesday . A northeast wind gusting to 25 to 30 knots is forecast.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ450>452. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ453>455.

Synopsis . CMS Near Term . CMS Short Term . Iovino Long Term . Iovino Aviation . CMS/Iovino Marine . CMS/Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 8 mi52 min 48°F 51°F1015.1 hPa (-1.4)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 9 mi52 min E 8 G 8.9 48°F 54°F1015.7 hPa (-1.4)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 17 mi52 min E 9.9 G 16 49°F 1015.4 hPa (-2.1)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 18 mi52 min 49°F 51°F1015.8 hPa (-1.3)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 21 mi52 min E 6 G 8.9 48°F 52°F1015.7 hPa (-1.5)
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 30 mi52 min 48°F 50°F1016.3 hPa (-1.4)
BDSP1 35 mi52 min 48°F 1017.1 hPa (-1.0)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 42 mi58 min E 19 G 21 1014.9 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi76 min ENE 6 G 8.9 48°F 49°F1017.2 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 47 mi52 min ENE 8 G 17 49°F 49°F1014.7 hPa (-2.0)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi124 min ENE 2.9 G 11 52°F 51°F1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Delaware City, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE13 mi61 minENE 72.50 miFog/Mist48°F45°F89%1016.1 hPa
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ22 mi58 minE 118.00 miOvercast49°F46°F90%1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILG

Wind History from ILG (wind in knots)
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NW10W7NW6NW5NW5N4NW3W3CalmCalmE5E5N4CalmE3S4SE9E11E12E10E10NE7
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NE13NE13N9NE6N4N4N4NW5NW5NW6NW4N3CalmCalmCalmS34SW4S7S7SW10

Tide / Current Tables for Quinton, Alloway Creek, New Jersey
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Quinton
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:39 AM EDT     3.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:49 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:12 PM EDT     3.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:40 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.92.93.63.93.93.52.61.60.90.40.30.61.32.233.43.63.42.71.70.90.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:35 AM EDT     -0.02 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:01 AM EDT     -2.05 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:14 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:55 AM EDT     2.09 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:49 PM EDT     -0.08 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:35 PM EDT     -1.63 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:14 PM EDT     0.06 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:01 PM EDT     1.70 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.1-0.9-1.6-1.9-2.1-1.9-1.5-0.611.61.92.11.91.2-0.6-1.3-1.6-1.6-1.3-0.50.91.31.51.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.