Friday, April10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Glasgow, DE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 7:37PM Friday April 10, 2020 5:42 AM EDT (09:42 UTC) Moonrise 9:58PMMoonset 7:24AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 436 Am Edt Fri Apr 10 2020
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect late tonight...
Rest of the overnight..W winds 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Today..W winds 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 3 ft. A chance of sprinkles.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt... Becoming W 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 ft after midnight. Showers with a chance of tstms through the day, then a chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 436 Am Edt Fri Apr 10 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Strong and gusty westerly winds will persist over the waters today before high pressure gradually builds overhead tonight through Saturday. The high will then shift offshore Saturday night as low pressure tracks to our west Sunday night into Monday, ushering a cold front through the waters Monday evening. Small craft advisories will likely be required for a portion of the waters on Saturday, then again on Sunday, with gale conditions possible late Sunday night into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glasgow, DE
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location: 39.55, -75.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 100832 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 432 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. An area of low pressure will drift through eastern Canada through the weekend, while high pressure builds across the deep south today and Saturday, before moving offshore Saturday night. Our area will remain under a tight pressure gradient between these two features today through the weekend. A strengthening low pressure system will move across the Mid West states Sunday night, then into the Great Lakes region Monday and into southern Canada Monday night. This will lift an occluding frontal system across the Mid Atlantic region Sunday night into Monday. Another system could affect portions of the Mid Atlantic region around Wednesday, with a clipper type system around Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Way behind with the forecast overnight owing to a high-impact storm that produced a swath of significant wind damage from the Harrisburg, PA, area east-southeast to Wilmington, DE, and adjacent portions of southern New Jersey. A wind gust of 69 mph was reported at KILG and of 62 mph was reported at KACY. In addition, areas of snow developed in northern portions of the forecast area, with several spotters reporting brief wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph with some of these showers. Several reports of graupel/small hail were received from many of these showers, as well.

Most of the shower activity for the CWA is coming to an end early this morning. The exception will be the southern Poconos and adjacent areas, as northwest-flow showers will occasionally reach these areas today. Temperatures will likely remain cold enough for snow or a rain/snow mix this morning, with potential for light accumulations in the highest elevations. However, chances will slowly dwindle tonight as a reinforcing shortwave trough digs southeast into the Atlantic during the evening, and upstream descent takes over. PoPs are generally negligible after 00z Saturday.

Clouds will thicken fairly quickly during the day, as mixing and diurnal heating generate saturated parcels readily after sunrise. This should keep temperatures from warming (especially given the ambient cold advection). Nudged highs slightly lower today given these factors.

The main story today will be the winds. Model forecast soundings indicate another day of mixing to 850-800 mb, with winds of 35-45 kt at these levels likely mixing to the surface rather efficiently in the cold-advection regime in place. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be likely at times today, especially near/south of Philadelphia in closer proximity to stronger winds aloft. However, the threat of advisory-level gusts persists across the area, and the wind advisory was unchanged with this forecast update. With the elevated winds and strong mixing, fire-weather concerns are elevated today. Please see the Fire Weather section for more details.

Attention tonight turns to temperatures, as the strong cold advection occurring today will lead to a temperature plunge tonight. Model guidance is generally in agreement that areas northwest of the Philadelphia metropolitan area will reach or drop below freezing overnight. However, confidence is not particularly high, since winds will likely remain elevated through the night. In such regimes, models tend to be too aggressive with the temperature drop, especially in more urbanized areas. Nevertheless, with the growing season in full swing southeast of the Poconos and with consistent guidance showing temperatures falling below freezing in Berks County, the Lehigh Valley, the far west suburbs of Philadelphia, and northern New Jersey, hoisted a freeze watch for the overnight hours in these areas. Will need to watch the Pine Barrens as well, as temperatures often drop precipitously, even in otherwise elevated wind conditions.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Saturday will remain rather breezy, though considerably less so than today. Winds will likely diminish by late afternoon as high pressure approaches the area. With the upper-level trough axis moving offshore, should see thicknesses increase, allowing for a slightly warmer day compared to Friday. Used a statistical blend for highs, resulting in readings in the mid to upper 40s in the Poconos to the mid 50s southeast of the I-95 corridor. Unfortunately, the breezy conditions and resultant mixing will allow for another day of elevated fire weather concerns. As high pressure shifts offshore Saturday night, winds will become light and back to a more southerly or southeasterly direction. Subtle warm advection should prevent a collapse in temperatures, but I suspect the rural/valley locations will see another cold night, with potential for more frost/freeze products.

By Sunday, the Mid-Atlantic will begin to see downstream midlevel ridging as a very potent shortwave trough ejects into the southern Plains. Warm advection will increase in earnest during the day, with an associated increase in cloud cover as well. Despite the dampened insolation, the height rises and warm advection will result in a considerable warmup. Highs may approach 70 in much of the area. The region will be well downstream of large-scale lift with the approaching system, so have unmentionable PoPs through the day. The sensible weather of interest will once again be the winds, as they increase from the south during the day. Could see some gusts of 25 to 35 mph by the afternoon, but fortunately, the warming temperatures will be compensatory to most.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. The main focus for the long term forecast will be Sunday night into Monday. An area of low pressure will move across the Mid- West states and into the Great Lakes area Sunday night, before lifting into southern Canada on Monday. This will lift an occluding frontal system across the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern states. Rainfall is expected to begin overnight Sunday, then continue into Monday, before ending later Monday afternoon into Monday evening as the cold front pushes offshore. Several concerns are beginning to take shape with this system. The first will be the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall overnight Sunday into Monday morning. 1-2 inches of rain will be possible, with the heaviest rainfall expected for portions of eastern Pennsylvania and northern/central New Jersey. Latest model guidance indicates that there will be some instability developing during day ahead of the approaching cold front, so there will be a chance of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms would mostly be confined to daytime hours Monday. This leads to the next concern, which may be the greatest threat. Low level winds with this system are forecast to increase significantly with 925-850 mb winds potentially increasing to 50-70+ knots. Not all of these winds would mix down to the surface, however, we will likely have some decent mixing overnight Sunday into Monday, so we do expect a very windy overnight Sunday into Monday period. We can expect at least 40-50 mph winds, especially for south and eastern New Jersey, and central and southern Delaware and Maryland where the strongest winds are expected.

The front will have moved offshore by Monday afternoon/Monday evening. Gusty winds will continue night into Tuesday, before beginning to relax overnight Tuesday. There will be a slight chance of showers Tuesday as a couple of short waves/vorticity impulse move across the area.

There continues to be some disagreement with the long term models in how they handle a potential coastal storm developing along the old cold front offshore of the east coast Tuesday night into Wednesday.. The ECMWF is much more aggressive strengthening the low moving it offshore of the Mid- Atlantic and bringing rain or even snow to portions of the area. The GFS and Canadian suppresses the system and keep rain away from the area. We will have a chance of showers due the uncertainty, but no more than 40 to 50 percent across southern New Jersey and southern Delaware and Maryland.

There is better agreement with a possible clipper type system affecting the area around Wednesday night into Thursday. This could bring a chance of rain, or even snow showers to portions of the area Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure is forecast to briefly build into the area late Thursday, before another potential storm at the end of the week.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight . Mainly VFR. However, CIGs of 3500-6000 feet may develop at RDG, ABE, and the Philly terminals at times. West to northwest winds 10 to 20+ kt with gusts 25-35 kt. Moderate confidence.

Friday . Mainly VFR, though CIGs of 3500-6000 feet will likely encompass much of the area today. West to northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts 30-40+ kt likely. Moderate confidence.

Friday night . VFR with west to northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, especially during the evening. High confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday . VFR with west winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, likely diminishing slowly by late afternoon. High confidence.

Saturday night . Mainly VFR with winds becoming light southerly or southeasterly. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . Increasing cloudiness with south winds increasing to 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt by afternoon. Mainly VFR, but conditions may approach MVFR late. Low confidence.

Sunday night-Monday . A frontal system will move across the area leading to periods of moderate to heavy rain, along with MVFR to IFR conditions likely, improving during the day Monday. Very wind conditions are likely to develop overnight Sunday into Monday, with gusts potentially reaching 35-45 knots. Moderate confidence.

Monday night-Tuesday . VFR conditions expected. West to northwest winds gusting to 20-30 knots. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Gales continue on the Atlantic waters and Delaware Bay today. West to northwest winds of 20 to 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt are likely. Conditions should slowly improve tonight but will likely exceed gale criteria through most of the night. The gale warning continues through 6 am Saturday.

Seas will generally range from 3 to 6 feet.

Outlook .

Saturday . Advisory conditions likely with west winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. However, conditions will improve with time and possibly become sub-advisory by evening.

Saturday night . Sub-advisory winds/seas anticipated.

Sunday . South winds will increase rapidly, likely reaching advisory criteria by afternoon. Seas are expected to approach/exceed 5 feet late in the day as well.

Sunday night-Monday . A frontal system will move across the area, leading to very strong winds across the waters. At least Gale force gusts are expected, with potentially Storm force winds possible late Sunday night into Monday.

Monday night-Tuesday . Gale force winds could continue into early Monday night, before lowering to Small Craft Advisory levels overnight into Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER. Windy conditions will occur again today. This will allow the low levels to mix readily, with dew points likely dropping to the upper teens to lower 20s. This will result in relative humidity values dropping to near or below 30 percent in most locations outside the southern Poconos. As a result, the threat for the rapid spread of fires is quite high today, and a Special Weather Statement has been issued in coordination with our fire-weather partners.

Conditions will not improve on Saturday. Although winds will likely be lower, relative humidity values will also likely be lower than values seen today. As a result, the threat for the rapid spread of fires will be high again.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for PAZ060>062-101-103-105. Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for PAZ054-055- 060>062-070-071-101>106. NJ . Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NJZ001-007>010. Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NJZ001-007>010- 012>027. DE . Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001>004. MD . Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008-012-015- 019-020. MARINE . Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431-450>455.

Synopsis . Robertson Near Term . CMS Short Term . CMS Long Term . Robertson Aviation . CMS/Robertson Marine . CMS/Robertson Fire Weather . CMS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 5 mi54 min W 8.9 G 12 43°F 55°F999.5 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 8 mi54 min WNW 6 G 9.9 42°F 56°F998.9 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 8 mi54 min 42°F 54°F998.4 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 24 mi54 min 42°F 53°F998.2 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 25 mi54 min W 23 G 36 45°F 999.1 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 36 mi60 min WNW 28 G 36 46°F 55°F1000.2 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 41 mi54 min 42°F 53°F997.7 hPa
BDSP1 46 mi54 min 41°F 998 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 48 mi54 min WNW 26 G 30 999.5 hPa
FSNM2 48 mi72 min W 32 G 36 44°F 999.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 49 mi54 min NW 9.9 G 19 44°F 54°F1000.4 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE11 mi51 minW 16 G 2410.00 miFair41°F24°F51%998.9 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD24 mi1.7 hrsWNW 10 G 1810.00 miFair41°F23°F50%1000.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILG

Wind History from ILG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4CalmW3SE6S5SW9SW14
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2 days agoNE4CalmCalmSE5SE5S9SE8SE8SE6S10S10S8S12S8S4S6CalmS4CalmS4SW8SW7
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Tide / Current Tables for Summit Bridge, Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Delaware
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Summit Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:56 AM EDT     4.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:38 AM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:25 PM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.14.443.12.11.30.5-0.1-0.20.41.52.53.43.83.83.12.21.40.70.2-00.41.52.6

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:12 AM EDT     -2.40 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:50 AM EDT     0.10 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:55 AM EDT     2.44 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:23 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:52 PM EDT     -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:02 PM EDT     0.04 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:01 PM EDT     2.02 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-1.7-2.2-2.4-2.3-1.9-1.30.61.72.32.42.21.70.9-1.1-1.7-1.8-1.6-1.2-0.31.21.821.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.