Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elkton, MD
May 2, 2024 6:30 PM EDT (22:30 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 2:10 AM Moonset 12:36 PM |
ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 435 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon - .
Rest of this afternoon - SW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming ne 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt - .diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. A chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight.
Mon - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 435 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure briefly returns today before a slow moving front crosses the local waters over the weekend. Unsettled conditions look to linger over the waters heading into early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed on both Friday night and Saturday.
high pressure briefly returns today before a slow moving front crosses the local waters over the weekend. Unsettled conditions look to linger over the waters heading into early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed on both Friday night and Saturday.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
(hide/show) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KPHI 021908 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 308 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will push south across the region tonight before stalling to our south and west on Friday. A weakening cold front will move into the region Saturday while a stronger front moves in later Sunday. After a couple of mostly dry days another front will approach towards midweek.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
145 PM...As of early this afternoon, low pressure was moving into western New England with a trailing cold front extending west from this feature back into upstate NY and northern PA.
Meanwhile a surface trough extended to the south and west right across the mid Atlantic I-95 corridor. As this trough continues to move through, winds will shift from southwest to more westerly across the area this afternoon with a drop in dew points. However actual air temperatures will remain quite warm with highs still expected to top out in the mid to upper 80s across much of the region. The exceptions will be over the Poconos and right along the coast where it will be cooler.
However winds becoming mainly offshore will keep any sea breezes from really getting inland so while right at the shore temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s, just a couple miles inland it will be in the 80s. Otherwise, it will be a mainly sunny and precipitation free afternoon across the area.
As we head into this evening, the cold front moves southward through the region as low pressure moves southeastward off the coast of New England and high pressure builds into eastern Canada. This setup will cause the winds to shift to an east/northeast direction over the mid Atlantic and it's likely this will eventually bring in some marine stratus along the coast by Friday morning. Expect overnight lows mainly in the 50s...ranging from low 50s over the southern Poconos, NW NJ, and and the NJ coast to mid/upper 50s near the urban corridor of SE PA extending south into interior portions of Delmarva.
For Friday, ridging aloft will keep the area dry for at least one more day as it helps to keep the approaching system from the west at bay. Meanwhile the front will be stalled to our south but then arcing back to the north and west into PA just west of our region. The upshot of this is it will be a much cooler day with continuing easterly winds and variable cloud cover. Through the morning, marine stratus near the coast will try to push inland for a time and could get to near the I-95 corridor before starting to retreat. Meanwhile by afternoon there will be some clouds moving in from the west. So not a completely sunny day but much of the region should see at least a little sun at some point except perhaps right along the coast.
Speaking of which, expect highs near the coast will only get into the upper 50s to low 60s with warmer temperatures the farther west you go. Eastern PA should see highs mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s except some mid 70s over portions of Berks County.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Wedge of Canadian high pressure will continue nosing southwestward along the coast Friday night through Saturday night, keeping the frontal boundary which moves through tonight stalled to our southwest with a cooler maritime air mass in place over our region. A weakening cold front will be moving into the area from the west, but it will be too weak to dislodge the maritime air in place, and the front will wash out. Showers and thunderstorms associated with said front will develop to our west, especially Saturday and Saturday night, but are expected to weaken and eventually die out as they continue advecting eastward into the stable maritime air mass. Thus, POPS are highest in the far west/Poconos and much lower along the coast. Clouds will dominate thanks to the maritime influence and temps will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with highs Saturday in the upper 50s to 60s.
By Sunday, another, stronger cold front will be approaching from the west. This one looks likely to bring enough of a southwesterly push ahead of it to at least partially dislodge the stalled boundary to our southwest, which may bring 70s back into the Delmarva. Further north, it looks likely to stay stuck in the martime air, with 50s and 60s more likely, along with continued mostly cloudy conditions. This stronger boundary from the west, however, looks more likely to spread showers and perhaps some mostly elevated thunderstorms into the region, so POPs are much higher on Sunday compared to Saturday. That said, still not expecting a lot of rain, mostly in the half inch rain, though locally more could be had with any heavier storms, especially NW of I-95.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
The stronger cold front moving in Sunday will try its best to dislodge the marine layer for the balance of the week, though a boundary of some sort will remain nearby through the entire week. This boundary will continue to form the basic path of additional waves of low pressure moving eastward across the northern US. Given uncertainty about exactly where the boundary ends up each day, which will depend on passing low pressure waves and high pressures building in behind each one, have kept temps relatively stable in the 70s for highs and 50s to 60s for lows. Chance of precip appears to ebb behind the front Monday and Tuesday, but will return with additional waves of low pressure Wednesday and Thursday. Still a lot of uncertainty regarding timing of waves so confidence is not great regarding details.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
This afternoon...VFR with west to WNW winds around 10 to 15 gusting upwards of 20 to 25 knots. High confidence.
Tonight...Mainly VFR except some MVFR cigs possible towards 12z at ACY. Winds diminishing early this evening to 5-10 knots and becoming northwesterly before veering to northeasterly by the late evening through the overnight. Moderate confidence.
Friday...Mainly VFR except a period of MVFR cigs possible in the morning at ACY (60 percent chance) and MIV (40 percent chance)
due to marine stratus. Winds generally easterly around 10 knots.
Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Friday night...MVFR cigs possible esp toward coastal sites.
Saturday...MVFR cigs possible.
Sunday...MVFR conds likely with IFR conds possible.
Monday...VFR likely.
Tuesday...VFR likely.
MARINE
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions today and tonight. SW winds will increase to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon, then winds veer to northeast around 10 kt tonight.
Seas will average 2 to 3 ft through tonight and then 3 to 4 ft by later Friday.
Outlook...
Friday night through Saturday...No marine headlines anticipated.
Saturday nihgt through Sunday...SCA conditions possible (20-30%) as seas near 5 feet on the ocean.
Sunday through Monday...No marine headlines anticipated.
FIRE WEATHER
Warm, dry, and breezy conditions on tap through the rest of today under sunny skies. Minimum RH values will drop to 25 to 35 percent across the region this afternoon due to the combination of highs in the mid to upper 80s and surface dew points dropping into the 40s over much of eastern PA into northern NJ with 50s south further south. Southwest winds shifting to northwest will increase to 10 to 15 mph with 20 to 30 mph gusts this afternoon. While a wetting rainfall occurred on Tuesday across the Lehigh Valley, southern Poconos, and northern New Jersey, remaining areas of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delmarva have not experienced a wetting rainfall in well over a week now. This will result in some concerns for wildfire spread through the rest of the day.
CLIMATE
Near record breaking high temperatures are expected today. Records for our climate sites are listed below:
Record High Temperatures May 2 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2001 AC Airport (ACY) 91/2018 AC Marina (55N) 85/1913 Georgetown (GED) 90/2018 Mount Pocono (MPO) 83/1913 Philadelphia (PHL) 89/2010 Reading (RDG) 89/1899 Trenton (TTN) 88/2010 & 2018 Wilmington (ILG) 90/1894
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 308 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will push south across the region tonight before stalling to our south and west on Friday. A weakening cold front will move into the region Saturday while a stronger front moves in later Sunday. After a couple of mostly dry days another front will approach towards midweek.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
145 PM...As of early this afternoon, low pressure was moving into western New England with a trailing cold front extending west from this feature back into upstate NY and northern PA.
Meanwhile a surface trough extended to the south and west right across the mid Atlantic I-95 corridor. As this trough continues to move through, winds will shift from southwest to more westerly across the area this afternoon with a drop in dew points. However actual air temperatures will remain quite warm with highs still expected to top out in the mid to upper 80s across much of the region. The exceptions will be over the Poconos and right along the coast where it will be cooler.
However winds becoming mainly offshore will keep any sea breezes from really getting inland so while right at the shore temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s, just a couple miles inland it will be in the 80s. Otherwise, it will be a mainly sunny and precipitation free afternoon across the area.
As we head into this evening, the cold front moves southward through the region as low pressure moves southeastward off the coast of New England and high pressure builds into eastern Canada. This setup will cause the winds to shift to an east/northeast direction over the mid Atlantic and it's likely this will eventually bring in some marine stratus along the coast by Friday morning. Expect overnight lows mainly in the 50s...ranging from low 50s over the southern Poconos, NW NJ, and and the NJ coast to mid/upper 50s near the urban corridor of SE PA extending south into interior portions of Delmarva.
For Friday, ridging aloft will keep the area dry for at least one more day as it helps to keep the approaching system from the west at bay. Meanwhile the front will be stalled to our south but then arcing back to the north and west into PA just west of our region. The upshot of this is it will be a much cooler day with continuing easterly winds and variable cloud cover. Through the morning, marine stratus near the coast will try to push inland for a time and could get to near the I-95 corridor before starting to retreat. Meanwhile by afternoon there will be some clouds moving in from the west. So not a completely sunny day but much of the region should see at least a little sun at some point except perhaps right along the coast.
Speaking of which, expect highs near the coast will only get into the upper 50s to low 60s with warmer temperatures the farther west you go. Eastern PA should see highs mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s except some mid 70s over portions of Berks County.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Wedge of Canadian high pressure will continue nosing southwestward along the coast Friday night through Saturday night, keeping the frontal boundary which moves through tonight stalled to our southwest with a cooler maritime air mass in place over our region. A weakening cold front will be moving into the area from the west, but it will be too weak to dislodge the maritime air in place, and the front will wash out. Showers and thunderstorms associated with said front will develop to our west, especially Saturday and Saturday night, but are expected to weaken and eventually die out as they continue advecting eastward into the stable maritime air mass. Thus, POPS are highest in the far west/Poconos and much lower along the coast. Clouds will dominate thanks to the maritime influence and temps will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with highs Saturday in the upper 50s to 60s.
By Sunday, another, stronger cold front will be approaching from the west. This one looks likely to bring enough of a southwesterly push ahead of it to at least partially dislodge the stalled boundary to our southwest, which may bring 70s back into the Delmarva. Further north, it looks likely to stay stuck in the martime air, with 50s and 60s more likely, along with continued mostly cloudy conditions. This stronger boundary from the west, however, looks more likely to spread showers and perhaps some mostly elevated thunderstorms into the region, so POPs are much higher on Sunday compared to Saturday. That said, still not expecting a lot of rain, mostly in the half inch rain, though locally more could be had with any heavier storms, especially NW of I-95.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
The stronger cold front moving in Sunday will try its best to dislodge the marine layer for the balance of the week, though a boundary of some sort will remain nearby through the entire week. This boundary will continue to form the basic path of additional waves of low pressure moving eastward across the northern US. Given uncertainty about exactly where the boundary ends up each day, which will depend on passing low pressure waves and high pressures building in behind each one, have kept temps relatively stable in the 70s for highs and 50s to 60s for lows. Chance of precip appears to ebb behind the front Monday and Tuesday, but will return with additional waves of low pressure Wednesday and Thursday. Still a lot of uncertainty regarding timing of waves so confidence is not great regarding details.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
This afternoon...VFR with west to WNW winds around 10 to 15 gusting upwards of 20 to 25 knots. High confidence.
Tonight...Mainly VFR except some MVFR cigs possible towards 12z at ACY. Winds diminishing early this evening to 5-10 knots and becoming northwesterly before veering to northeasterly by the late evening through the overnight. Moderate confidence.
Friday...Mainly VFR except a period of MVFR cigs possible in the morning at ACY (60 percent chance) and MIV (40 percent chance)
due to marine stratus. Winds generally easterly around 10 knots.
Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Friday night...MVFR cigs possible esp toward coastal sites.
Saturday...MVFR cigs possible.
Sunday...MVFR conds likely with IFR conds possible.
Monday...VFR likely.
Tuesday...VFR likely.
MARINE
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions today and tonight. SW winds will increase to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon, then winds veer to northeast around 10 kt tonight.
Seas will average 2 to 3 ft through tonight and then 3 to 4 ft by later Friday.
Outlook...
Friday night through Saturday...No marine headlines anticipated.
Saturday nihgt through Sunday...SCA conditions possible (20-30%) as seas near 5 feet on the ocean.
Sunday through Monday...No marine headlines anticipated.
FIRE WEATHER
Warm, dry, and breezy conditions on tap through the rest of today under sunny skies. Minimum RH values will drop to 25 to 35 percent across the region this afternoon due to the combination of highs in the mid to upper 80s and surface dew points dropping into the 40s over much of eastern PA into northern NJ with 50s south further south. Southwest winds shifting to northwest will increase to 10 to 15 mph with 20 to 30 mph gusts this afternoon. While a wetting rainfall occurred on Tuesday across the Lehigh Valley, southern Poconos, and northern New Jersey, remaining areas of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delmarva have not experienced a wetting rainfall in well over a week now. This will result in some concerns for wildfire spread through the rest of the day.
CLIMATE
Near record breaking high temperatures are expected today. Records for our climate sites are listed below:
Record High Temperatures May 2 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2001 AC Airport (ACY) 91/2018 AC Marina (55N) 85/1913 Georgetown (GED) 90/2018 Mount Pocono (MPO) 83/1913 Philadelphia (PHL) 89/2010 Reading (RDG) 89/1899 Trenton (TTN) 88/2010 & 2018 Wilmington (ILG) 90/1894
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD | 4 mi | 42 min | WSW 7G | 86°F | 68°F | 29.88 | ||
| DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE | 14 mi | 42 min | WNW 5.1G | 87°F | 29.88 | |||
| RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE | 15 mi | 42 min | 86°F | 64°F | 29.86 | |||
| MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA | 28 mi | 42 min | 88°F | 63°F | 29.86 | |||
| SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ | 31 mi | 42 min | W 15G | 81°F | 29.89 | |||
| TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD | 32 mi | 42 min | SSW 5.1G | 80°F | 29.90 | |||
| DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE | 40 mi | 180 min | WSW 5.1 | 88°F | 29.92 | 60°F | ||
| 44043 - Patapsco, MD | 41 mi | 36 min | S 12G | 73°F | 65°F | 1 ft | ||
| FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD | 43 mi | 42 min | W 12G | 86°F | ||||
| BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD | 44 mi | 42 min | WSW 1G | 89°F | 70°F | |||
| CBCM2 | 44 mi | 42 min | W 8.9G | 82°F | 69°F | 29.86 | 60°F | |
| PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA | 45 mi | 42 min | 89°F | 62°F | 29.85 | |||
| CPVM2 | 49 mi | 42 min | 71°F | 66°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KILG NEW CASTLE,DE | 15 sm | 39 min | SW 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 84°F | 57°F | 40% | 29.88 | |
| KAPG PHILLIPS AAF,MD | 18 sm | 1.7 hrs | SW 08 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 86°F | 63°F | 46% | 29.88 |
Old Frenchtown Wharf
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:10 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 04:54 AM EDT 2.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 10:59 AM EDT 0.84 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:36 PM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:19 PM EDT 3.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:59 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:10 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 04:54 AM EDT 2.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 10:59 AM EDT 0.84 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:36 PM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:19 PM EDT 3.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:59 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Old Frenchtown Wharf, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 1.2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.7 |
| 3 am |
| 2.2 |
| 4 am |
| 2.5 |
| 5 am |
| 2.6 |
| 6 am |
| 2.5 |
| 7 am |
| 2.1 |
| 8 am |
| 1.6 |
| 9 am |
| 1.2 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.1 |
Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:16 AM EDT 1.66 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:09 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 04:27 AM EDT -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:02 AM EDT -2.02 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:29 AM EDT 0.07 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:36 PM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 03:00 PM EDT 2.08 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:05 PM EDT -0.06 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:58 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:54 PM EDT -1.69 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:16 AM EDT 1.66 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:09 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 04:27 AM EDT -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:02 AM EDT -2.02 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:29 AM EDT 0.07 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:36 PM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 03:00 PM EDT 2.08 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:05 PM EDT -0.06 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:58 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:54 PM EDT -1.69 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 1.4 |
| 2 am |
| 1.6 |
| 3 am |
| 1.5 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| -1 |
| 6 am |
| -1.6 |
| 7 am |
| -1.9 |
| 8 am |
| -2 |
| 9 am |
| -1.9 |
| 10 am |
| -1.5 |
| 11 am |
| -0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 8 pm |
| -1.6 |
| 9 pm |
| -1.7 |
| 10 pm |
| -1.5 |
| 11 pm |
| -1.1 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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