Saturday, July20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, MD

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Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:28PM Saturday July 20, 2019 5:52 PM EDT (21:52 UTC) Moonrise 9:54PMMoonset 8:13AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 438 Pm Edt Sat Jul 20 2019
Rest of this afternoon..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers through the day.
Wed..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 438 Pm Edt Sat Jul 20 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build over the southeastern states through the weekend. A cold front will approach the waters from the great lakes and pennsylvania Sunday night through Monday before passing through Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure will return for the middle portion of next week. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Monday and Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, MD
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location: 39.57, -75.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 201927
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
327 pm edt Sat jul 20 2019

Synopsis
A ridge of high pressure will remain entrenched off the coast of the
southeastern u.S. Through Sunday. A cold front will approach and
progress through the region Monday into Tuesday. A cooler and drier
air mass will advect in for the remainder of the week.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
The heat continues to be the main story this afternoon with heat
indices at 100 to 105+ across much of the area under skies that are
generally mostly sunny. As we head through the late afternoon into
this evening will have to watch to our west as there could be a few
isolated storms over central pa that could make there way into our
eastern pa zones. Most likely, if anything occurs it will be
isolated. But that said, latest hrw nssl model run is a more
aggressive developing more widespread convection toward the mid to
late evening as weakening convection from this midwest helps ignite
new storms over the area is it moves into pa after 0z. Given this is
the outlier scenario I kept pops capped at 20% but this will have to
be watched. Otherwise, it will be another very warm and muggy night
with low temperatures at least as warm as this past overnight. Lows
will be mainly in the 70s except low 80s through most of the urban
corridor.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
The ongoing heat wave will continue into Sunday with rather extreme
heat indicies continuing area wide. Air temperatures are forecast to
be well into the mid to upper 90s outside of the highest terrain and
away from the immediate coast with dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s. Resulting heat index values are forecast to range from around
110-115 across most of central and southern nj, SE pa, and delmarva
away from the immediate coast. Across the lehigh valley, NW nj, and
immediate coastal areas, widespread values of 105-110 can be
expected. Values from 95-100 are expected across the southern
poconos. Otherwise, it should be a partly to mostly sunny but hazy
day. There will be a slow moving frontal boundary approaching from
the N NW by the mid to late afternoon and this could result in some
showers and storms affecting areas mainly north of philly through
the lehigh valley, the southern poconos and NW nj by late day.

Limiting factor will be capping and relatively dry layer just above
the cap which will tend to limit storm formation over eastern pa but
if any storms do develop they could become severe as ml capes will
be 2500-3500+ j kg with relatively steep mid level lapse rates as
well due to elevated mixed layer. Damaging winds would be the main
threat.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
Summary: the main story in this period is the cold front
approaching and sliding through the region Monday into Tuesday,
which will bring potentially strong storms and heavy rain as
well as finally an end to the excessive heat.

Details:
Sunday night through Tuesday: cold front approaches the region,
especially starting on Monday. It still looks like it will take
some time for the front to move off shore as it may slow or even
stall over our region. Consequently, we could have multiple
rounds of thunderstorms, centered along the cold front. Ahead of
the front, the tropical maritime air mass will still be in
place, so heavy rain leading to flooding will remain a concern.

Also, lapse rates could be rather steep, increasing the threat
for strong, and possibly severe storms. An elevated mixed layer
could somewhat limit this threat, but will continue with the
mention of gusty winds for now. Though the tropical air mass
will still be in place for much of the region through peak
heating on Monday, persistent clouds should help to keep heat
index values below heat advisory warning criteria for most
locations. The one possible exception is southern de and
adjacent locations in md, which currently has forecasted maximum
heat index values of 100 - 105 f. Not enough confidence at this
point to extend the excessive heat warning into Monday. By
Tuesday, our region should really start to see some relief
behind the cold front, with highs likely to be in the 70s and
lower 80s across the region, and dew points dropping into the
60s.

Wednesday through Saturday: in the wake of the cold front,
expect temperatures slightly below normal Wednesday and
Thursday, with highs from the mid 70s to mid 80s, and lows in
the 50s and 60s. By the time we get to Friday, southerly return
flow could develop, bringing our temperatures to near or even
slightly above normal. None the less, it still looks like it
will be quite a bit more comfortable next weekend as compared to
this weekend. As far as precipitation, the mid and upper level
flow becomes much weaker by mid week. Consequently, there
doesn't appear to be a significant chance for widespread
precipitation after Tuesday.

Aviation 19z Saturday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... MainlyVFR. Winds generally southwest wind 6 knots or less.

Sunday...VFR expected. Hazy skies may limit visibility in some
areas. Isolated thunderstorms possible during the late afternoon
mainly from around phl pne northward. West winds around 5-10
kts.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday night... Periods of heavy showers
and thunderstorms expected. Several periods of MVFR likely with
ifr possible. West to southwest winds around 5 kts, becoming
northwest on Tuesday at 5 to 10 kt.

Tuesday night through Thursday...VFR conditions are expected.

Northwest at 5 to 10 kt becoming light and variable.

Marine
Through Sunday, winds should generally remain out of the south and
southwest around 10 knots. During this time wave heights on our
ocean waters are expected to be 2 to 3 feet. Waves on delaware bay
will likely be 2 feet or less.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday... A brief period of northwesterly
wind gusts up to 25 kt is possible behind a cold front which
will bring an abrupt shift from southwesterly to northwesterly
winds. In addition, stronger winds and locally higher waves are
possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms through this
period.

Wednesday and Thursday... Winds and seas are likely to remain
below SCA criteria.

Rip currents...

a southerly wind around 10 mph is expected for today along the
coasts of delaware and new jersey. Breaking waves around 2 feet
are anticipated along with a medium period southerly swell. As a
result, there should be a low risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents for today.

Wave rip current conditions on Sunday are expected to be
similar to those of today along the coasts of new jersey and
delaware.

It appears as though there is some upwelling along the new
jersey coast, mainly from long beach island down to the atlantic
city area. Water temperatures right along the shore are in the
middle and upper 60s in spots.

Climate
Record maximum temperatures for:
7 20
site high year low year
abe 101 1980 76 1942
acy 97 1991 79 2015
phl 99 1930 81 2015
ilg 100 1895 79 2015
rdg 100 1980 77 1942
ttn 99 1980 78 2015
mpo 93 1980 69 1988
ged 100 1977 81 2013
7 21
site high year low year
abe 101 1980 75 1980
acy 99 1981 77 1991
phl 103 1930 79 2017
ilg 102 1957 77 1972
rdg 102 2011 77 2011
ttn 101 1930 78 1980
mpo 94 2011 72 2011
ged 101 1957 79 2017

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Excessive heat warning until 10 pm edt Sunday for paz054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.

Nj... Excessive heat warning until 10 pm edt Sunday for njz001-
007>010-012>027.

De... Excessive heat warning until 10 pm edt Sunday for dez001>004.

Md... Excessive heat warning until 10 pm edt Sunday for mdz008-012-
015-019-020.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... Fitzsimmons
short term... Fitzsimmons
long term... Johnson
aviation... Fitzsimmons johnson
marine... Fitzsimmons johnson
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 4 mi59 min WSW 4.1 G 6 94°F 88°F1010.3 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 14 mi65 min WSW 6 G 9.9 94°F 83°F1010.1 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 15 mi59 min 94°F 86°F1009.5 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 28 mi59 min 91°F 85°F1009.4 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 32 mi59 min S 6 G 9.9 93°F 88°F1010.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 43 mi53 min W 8.9 G 11 95°F 1010 hPa (-1.2)
FSNM2 43 mi59 min W 11 G 14 1010.2 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 44 mi65 min NW 7 G 9.9 96°F 84°F1009.7 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi65 min 101°F 82°F1008.9 hPa
CPVM2 49 mi53 min 90°F 83°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE15 mi62 minSW 810.00 miFair94°F77°F58%1010 hPa

Wind History from ILG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11SW9SW8SW6SW5SW9SW5SW4SW5W4SW4W5W4W4SW4W6NW7NW8NW8CalmW7SW6SW10SW8
1 day agoNW3S3S4CalmCalmS3CalmN4E4E3E5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4S65SW5W7
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2 days agoSW12SW7W16CalmE4NW3S5SW3S5S6S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SE5E3N4CalmW9NW7NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Old Frenchtown Wharf, Maryland
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Old Frenchtown Wharf
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:35 AM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:09 AM EDT     1.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:48 PM EDT     3.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:37 PM EDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.72.52.11.61.31.11.21.522.63.23.63.63.432.41.91.41.11.11.31.72.2

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
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Sat -- 12:01 AM EDT     -0.09 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:35 AM EDT     -2.10 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:10 AM EDT     0.05 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:25 AM EDT     2.18 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:43 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:17 PM EDT     -1.60 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:30 PM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:34 PM EDT     1.72 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-1.3-1.8-2.1-2.1-1.8-1.3-0.51.21.82.12.11.71.1-0.6-1.3-1.6-1.5-1.2-0.70.71.31.71.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.