Saturday, September19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North East, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 7:06PM Saturday September 19, 2020 1:41 PM EDT (17:41 UTC) Moonrise 8:14AMMoonset 7:47PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 136 Pm Edt Sat Sep 19 2020
This afternoon..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 136 Pm Edt Sat Sep 19 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Canadian high pressure will build from the great lakes toward the northeast and middle atlantic through early next week as hurricane teddy swirls northward well offshore. Small craft advisories may be needed Sunday into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North East, MD
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location: 39.58, -75.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 191532 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1132 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

SYNOPSIS. A surface high will move slowly across the Great Lakes and Northeast states this weekend before settling across the Appalachians for much of the upcoming week. A cold front is forecast to move into the Northeast Thursday night and Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Few changes needed to previous fcst or grids. Dew points were adjusted down in a few spots.

Sprawling high pressure centered in the Great Lakes region this morning will shift slowly eastward through tonight, likely positioned in southern Quebec by 12z Sunday. Northerly surface flow in advance of the high will gradually become more northeasterly and weaken as the surface pressure gradient relaxes with the high's approach to the region. Winds have increased through the morning, with speeds 10 to 15 mph and gusts 20 to 25 mph occurring. The winds speeds are expected to lower gradually during the afternoon, and may become light and variable by tonight.

This leads to the main forecast concern: frost potential in the Poconos and northwest New Jersey tonight. Models were too aggressive with cooling temperatures this morning, as strong mixing in the cold advection regime in advance of the surface high mitigated more substantial radiational cooling. However, expectations are that decoupling will occur quickly after sunset tonight. As a result, the forecast is for temperatures to drop below consensus guidance. Will likely need a frost advisory for Carbon, Monroe, and Sussex Counties tonight, but have held off at this time in coordination with neighboring WFOs owing to ongoing headlines this morning to the northwest.

Forecast highs today are in the mid 50s to lower 60s in the Poconos and northwest New Jersey and in the middle 60s elsewhere, based on a blend of continuity and statistical guidance. Forecast lows tonight are in the middle to upper 30s north of Interstate 78 and in the 40s elsewhere, based on a blend of colder hi-res model guidance and continuity.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. A vort max will dig southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, which will reinforce the high pressure already established in the Northeast and adjacent southeast Canada. This may lead to another breezy day, with northeast winds increasing to 10 to 15 mph with a few gusts 20 mph or so. A mostly sunny and cool day is expected across the area.

Lows on Sunday night will be fairly similar to those the previous night, with another round of frost likely in the northern CWA (especially north of I-80). Frost headlines will likely be required.

High pressure will begin to shift southwestward on Monday as TC Teddy continues to churn northward well east in the western Atlantic. By Monday night, high pressure will become positioned in the central/southern Appalachians. Continued dry conditions are expected across the area Monday and Monday night, with temperatures remaining quite similar to the previous two days.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The era of high pressure continues across the eastern U.S. during the medium-range period.

As TC Teddy begins its race northward into and east of the Canadian Maritimes, high pressure will remain entrenched in the Appalachians for much of the week. Broad midlevel ridging will exist across the U.S., with faster flow remaining near the International Border. A fairly potent vort max will move from the northern Plains on Wednesday to the Northeast on Friday, but high pressure in the east-central U.S. will likely prevent any substantive moisture from advecting poleward in advance of the trough. As such, the attendant cold front is expected to move through the region with little or no precipitation (and will be weakening anyway as it approaches the surface high). Notably, the 00z GFS trended much wetter both with the front on Friday and with a reinforcing vort max the following weekend, so it is possible PoPs will need to be raised in subsequent forecasts should operational models trend in this direction. However, other operational models lend little support to this scenario at this juncture.

Temperatures will be warming in advance of the vort max Tuesday through Thursday, likely becoming a few degrees above seasonal averages Wednesday and Thursday. Modest cooling is expected after frontal passage on Friday. Dry weather is forecast Tuesday through Thursday, with only a slight chance of showers in the far northern CWA on Friday as the shortwave trough moves through the area.

AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR with north to northeast winds around 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. High confidence.

Saturday night . VFR with winds either becoming light and variable or generally northerly under 10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook .

Sunday through Wednesday: VFR with northeast winds on Sunday and Monday and west to northwest winds on Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds generally 5 to 15 kt (lighter at night), though a few gusts to 20 kt or so may occur during the late morning and afternoon hours each day.

MARINE. Winds and seas are now solidly above advisory criteria on the Atlantic waters and also Delaware Bay (elevated platforms). Gusty north to northeast winds will continue into the early afternoon, but are expected to diminish as the afternoon wears on. However, seas will remain well above advisory thresholds (5 to 8 feet) through tonight. Additionally, winds should strengthen again overnight, likely at least flirting with advisory criteria after midnight.

A small craft advisory remains in effect through the period for all waters. We may lower it across Delaware Bay later this afternoon, it it seems like the winds will not increase too much overnight.

Outlook .

Sunday . Small craft advisory continues for all waters, though conditions may be fairly marginal on Delaware Bay. Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt on the ocean. Speeds will be lower on Delaware Bay, but gusts to 25 kt may occur. Seas on the Atlantic waters of 6 to 10 feet are forecast. A high surf advisory may be required for the beaches.

Sunday night and Monday . Small craft advisory extended for the Atlantic waters, with seas 7 to 11 feet likely. Advisory conditions may occur on Delaware Bay on Sunday night as well, though confidence is low. Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt on the ocean, with somewhat lighter winds on Delaware Bay. A high surf advisory may be required for the beaches.

Monday night through Wednesday . Winds becoming northwest 10 to 20 kt. Seas of at least 5 feet are expected on the Atlantic waters through at least Tuesday night, so the small craft advisory will likely need to be extended.

Rip currents .

Rough surf is expected on the coasts of New Jersey and Delaware through early next week. Waves in the surf zone will likely reach 5 feet by late this afternoon and will continue building on Sunday. A very long-period east-northeast swell will gradually develop today and tonight, with the latest model guidance suggesting this may occur by as early as this afternoon. Latest observations suggest the period has increased to at or above 10 seconds already, which is generally higher than model guidance has suggested to this point. With seas already 5 to 8 feet, waves in the surf zone will likely reach 4 to 6 feet today, continuing to climb on Sunday.

As a result, we are forecasting a high risk of rip currents today and Sunday. The rip-current risk will remain elevated through at least Tuesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Astronomical tides remain elevated from the new moon this past Thursday. With strong north-northeast winds continuing this morning and seas building, another round of widespread minor tidal flooding is expected with this morning's high tide on the Atlantic coast and on the southern coast of Delaware Bay. Coastal flood advisories remain in effect.

The latest model guidance continues to suggest the high tide late this evening will feature less widespread coastal flooding, so we have held off extending the advisory through this high tide. However, localized minor flooding is possible, especially on the southern New Jersey and Delaware Atlantic coasts. Another round of more widespread minor flooding may occur during the Sunday morning high tide. Subsequent rounds of minor flooding are possible through Monday, as well. Later forecast shifts will reevaluate this potential and may issue additional advisories as needed.

For the northern coast of Delaware Bay and the tidal Delaware River, spotty minor flooding may occur through Monday's high tides, but more widespread flooding is not currently anticipated.

For the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay, tidal flooding is not currently anticipated.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NJZ014-024>026. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NJZ012>014-020-022>027. DE . High Rip Current Risk through this evening for DEZ004. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for DEZ002>004. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . CMS Near Term . CMS/po Short Term . CMS Long Term . CMS Aviation . CMS/po Marine . CMS/po Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi59 min N 8 G 12 59°F 74°F1027.8 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 16 mi59 min NW 6 G 11 59°F 63°F1027.5 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 17 mi59 min 59°F 72°F1027.1 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 30 mi59 min 59°F 74°F1027.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 32 mi59 min NNE 13 G 19 57°F 69°F1028.1 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 33 mi53 min 58°F 1027.7 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 42 mi59 min NE 7 G 12 59°F 76°F1027.6 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 42 mi53 min NNE 8.9 G 12 58°F 1027.9 hPa
FSNM2 42 mi59 min N 9.9 G 14 56°F 1027.4 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 47 mi53 min 61°F 73°F1027.2 hPa
CPVM2 48 mi53 min 59°F 43°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD17 mi1.7 hrsNE 710.00 miFair60°F33°F38%1028.1 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE17 mi50 minNNE 610.00 miFair61°F30°F32%1027.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW3CalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmN3N3N4NE3N6NE10N11--N10
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2 days agoSW4S7S5SW10S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmW5W6

Tide / Current Tables for Old Frenchtown Wharf, Maryland
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Old Frenchtown Wharf
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:47 AM EDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:36 AM EDT     3.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:55 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.83.32.721.410.91.21.72.43.13.63.63.22.61.91.20.70.60.81.32.23.13.8

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:45 AM EDT     -2.09 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:57 AM EDT     0.08 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:13 AM EDT     2.24 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:56 AM EDT     -0.10 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:10 PM EDT     -2.27 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:40 PM EDT     0.06 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:47 PM EDT     2.28 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-1.6-2-2.1-1.8-1.30.31.41.92.22.11.5-0.4-1.6-2.1-2.3-2.2-1.8-1.10.81.72.22.32

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.