Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kemps Mill, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 4:49PM Monday December 16, 2019 5:17 AM EST (10:17 UTC) Moonrise 9:39PMMoonset 11:11AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 337 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Rest of the overnight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Snow likely with a chance of rain or sleet likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain or sleet.
Tonight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Tue..SW winds 5 kt...becoming nw with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming light. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 337 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will impact the area today. The cold front associated with this low will pass through Tuesday. Small craft advisories likely will be required Tuesday into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kemps Mill, MD
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location: 39.63, -77.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 160825 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 325 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will push offshore this morning as a warm front remains stalled across southern Virginia. Low pressure will move along this boundary across the area Tuesday. High pressure will build over the region for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A early stationary boundary remains across the Tennessee Valley and southern Virginia early this morning. With ample lifting mechanisms, a band of snow has developed, mainly Winchester- Washington DC and points north. Its been a bit too warm for much to stick yet, but with wet bulb cooling, anticipate that will come soon.

The p-type forecast remains tricky today. While much of the ongoing precip is snow, low level temperatures are mostly above freezing, and temperatures aloft will be warming. Thus, we're looking for a change over to sleet, and then rain . with freezing rain where low level cold air remains trapped. Latest HREF runs generally match current forecast evolution, and thus have not changed much in that regard. The only concern is whether there is too much emphasis on freezing rain in Central Virginia based on current temperatures.

By noon, most locations will be seeing just rain, with perhaps northern Maryland and the northern Shenandoah Valleys as the exceptions. Further, most guidance sources suggest there will be a bit of a lull in precipitation between shortwave impulses. For that reason, will not be extending Advisories beyond 1pm at this time.

In summary . a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for immediate metro Baltimore, the farther northern and western suburbs of Washington/Baltimore and for locations near/west of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for western Allegheny and western Mineral Counties where several inches of snow are expected before changing to ice from freezing rain.

A stronger disturbance will approach this evening, causing steadier precipitation to break out once again. During this time, most areas will be rain, but freezing rain is expected across western MD and western Mineral County in WV. Freezing rain may also hang on for the higher elevations near the Mason- Dixon Line into the Potomac Highlands. Winter headlines may have to be adjusted near the Mason-Dixon Line into the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands due to the possibility of freezing rain. Confidence is too still low to do so at this time.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. The stronger wave of low pressure will pass through Tuesday morning. Steady precipitation is expected across much of the area during this time, with the heavier precipitation amounts most likely across the northwestern half of the CWA (Wash/Balt metro areas north and west).

The low will move off to the northeast Tuesday afternoon and drier air will slowly filter in from the northwest. Precipitation will diminish for most areas, but a few showers may persist. Snow showers are possible along/west of the Allegheny Front.

High pressure will approach Tuesday night, bringing blustery and cold conditions . which will continue into Wednesday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The long term period will feature an extended period of quiet weather across the region. We'll have gusty winds out of the northwest on Thursday. These winds should gradually relax through the day as high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures will be cold on Thursday, with temperatures only recovering into the 20s to low 30s after starting the morning out in the teens to low 20s. With high pressure in control, sunny skies are in the forecast

High pressure will translate off to the east on Friday, leading to a moderating trend. Dry condtions are forecast, with high temperatures in the low 40s for most. A disturbance will approach the area from the west on Saturday. While a few showers can't be ruled out with this disturbance, the vast majority of both deterministic and ensemble guidance keeps conditions dry. The aforementioned disturbance should depart off to our east on Sunday, leading to dry conditions. Temperatures should finally recover to around normal, with highs in the mid 40s.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Flight conditions will gradually deteriorate this morning as light snow develops. Low ceilings will be the primary culprit, but expect vsby restrictions in periods of snow through the morning push Precipitation type will be tricky. but will generally feature a transition from snow to sleet/freezing rain and then rain. Believe all terminals will be rain by noon except perhaps MRB. (Mixed precip will hold on the longest metro Baltimore). Low ceilings (subIFR) will extend into Tuesday.

Low pressure will cross the terminals during the day on Tuesday. In the wake of this low, conditions will improve, but with gusty winds, which will extend into Wed.

VFR conditions are expected through the latter portions of the upcoming week. Winds will be gusty out of the northwest Thursday morning, before gradually relaxing through the remainder of the week.

MARINE. Winds have dropped below Small Craft thresholds, and will remain that way until low pressure pushes past the area on Tuesday. Behind the low, solid SCA conditions anticipated through Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory level winds appear likely on Thursday in northwesterly flow. Winds should gradually subside to sub-SCA levels Thursday night and remain below SCA-levels through the remainder of the week.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ003>006-502-503-505-507. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MDZ501. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ011-506-508. VA . Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ025>031-040-501-503>505-507-508. WV . Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ050>053-055-501-502-504>506. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ503. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . HTS NEAR TERM . HTS SHORT TERM . HTS LONG TERM . KJP AVIATION . HTS/KJP MARINE . HTS/KJP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 66 mi48 min ESE 1.9 G 4.1 37°F 43°F1023.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 69 mi48 min ENE 5.1 G 8 34°F 45°F1022.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 73 mi54 min NE 6 G 8 33°F 1023.2 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hagerstown, Washington County Regional Airport, MD6 mi25 minNE 40.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist31°F28°F89%1023.7 hPa
Eastern WV Regional Airport/Shepherd Field, WV18 mi25 minN 00.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist30°F30°F100%1022.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHGR

Wind History from HGR (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3N5NE4N6N7N4N5N4N8N7N4N4NE4CalmW4CalmW4S6S5

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:05 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:06 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:21 AM EST     2.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:04 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:36 PM EST     2.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.11.50.90.40-0.100.61.52.32.62.52.11.50.90.40.1-0.100.61.52.42.9

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:00 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:06 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:16 AM EST     2.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:59 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:31 PM EST     2.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.11.40.90.40-0.10.10.71.62.32.62.52.11.50.90.40-0.10.10.71.62.52.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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