Friday, August7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Surf City, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 8:04PM Friday August 7, 2020 9:05 AM EDT (13:05 UTC) Moonrise 10:28PMMoonset 9:44AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 702 Am Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Showers likely this morning. A chance of tstms. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tonight..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of tstms until early morning, then a chance of showers late. Areas of fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. A chance of showers early in the morning. Areas of fog early in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the late evening and early morning, then becoming W late. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Sun..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 702 Am Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A weak stationary front will linger across the northern mid- atlantic today before slowly shifting to the southeast this weekend. High pressure will build into the region on Sunday before progressing offshore early next week. A cold front will approach the northeast around the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surf City , NJ
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location: 39.68, -74.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 071015 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 615 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak stationary front will linger across the northern Mid- Atlantic today before slowly shifting to the southeast this weekend. High pressure will build into the region on Sunday before progressing offshore early next week. A cold front will approach the Northeast around the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.

Early morning update .

Previous forecast largely on track. Shower and isolated thunderstorm coverage has gradually increased in recent hours, but it has remained a slow process and without much too concerning to speak of. Lack of instability certainly hurting the growth rate of convection. Still, have observed good rainfall rates even in some of the smaller cores that have popped up. So will continue to monitor the locally heavy rain potential through the morning, before a likely midday lull then more convection by late afternoon. Previous discussion follows .

We remain in the midst of an unsettled pattern this morning. A weak surface boundary is still stalled over the region, with multiple shortwave impulses riding up from the southwest. In addition, upper level troughing is slowly shifting east out of the Great Lakes, losing some amplitude as it does so. Light onshore flow continues thanks to a couple of weak surface waves passing over or just south of us along the boundary. This all will combine for continued unsettled conditions over the next 24 hours.

It looks like two primary rounds of convection remaining. The first opportunity is for the remainder of the overnight through mid morning today. This comes thanks to another convectively enhanced vorticity impulse riding up along the stalled frontal boundary. Radar overnight has been very unimpressive so far, as it was yesterday afternoon and evening. Strongly suspect that the unexpectedly vigorous MCS on Thursday morning really did a number on the atmosphere, and that we still have not recovered. Mesoanalysis indicates at least some modest amounts of elevated instability in place early this morning, and plentiful low level moisture with PWATs from 1.5 to 1.9 inches, highest to the south. Shear is weak, and storm motions are very slow from the southwest. So heavy rain remains the greatest concern through the morning. Quite a bit of uncertainty in how widespread this round of convection will be given concerns about the instability; so far it is struggling to get underway, but will wait awhile longer before cutting PoPs for the coming hours. Where storms do develop, flash flooding remains a possibility given the slow storm motions, possibility of training storms, and saturated ground.

The second opportunity for convection comes this afternoon and evening, into the early overnight. This time, the trigger will be a combination of the approaching trough from the west as well as a little more energy streaming up from the southwest. For this round, the focus of activity looks to be further west and north. A similar story with this convection as with previous convection; given very weak shear the severe weather threat is limited. However, locally heavy rain remains a concern, and this round of convection stands a better chance of impacting some of the worst hit areas during Isaias.

Convection will likely be ongoing near and after sunset, but as instability is lost we should trend towards mainly dry weather for the remainder of the overnight, especially after midnight. The big concern tonight may end up being fog development. Near calm surface winds and plentiful low level moisture combined with a saturated ground should yield areas of fog. The trough approaching from the west should create enough turbulence to prevent widespread dense fog, but cannot rule it out.

A couple changes with the Flash Flood Watch on this update. Have added in Lehigh and Northampton Counties, which seemed prudent given they were some of the hardest hit areas with Isaias. Have also extended the watch in all areas through 06z Saturday, which should be the last extension required as all potential rounds of convection are now covered. Considered trimming the watch on its south side but enough uncertainty remains to not remove any areas at this point.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. A gradual trend towards quieter weather over the weekend. The upper level trough axis quickly shifts offshore on Saturday morning with low amplitude ridging and surface high pressure gradually building in for the remainder of the weekend. 850mb temperatures run near seasonal average for both days. The main differences between the two days will come thanks to the low level winds. For Saturday, light easterly flow is likely to continue, especially along the coast. In the wake of several rounds of convection from prior days, plentiful low level moisture will remain in place. While there is no synoptic forcing for ascent on Saturday, some developing surface convergence as winds to the west turn more westerly may lead to pop up showers or an isolated storm during the afternoon. Convection Saturday should be limited in coverage and not nearly as vigorous as that of the prior days, but left a slight chance to low end chance across the region, with the best chance over the coastal plain. In addition, with the onshore flow and low level moisture, low cloud cover could be fairly extensive especially in the morning. Highs for Saturday are forecast in the low to mid 80s, though could be a bit warmer or cooler depending on the cloud cover evolution.

For Sunday, light but steady southwest flow develops as the high gradually builds east. While coastal sea breezes are likely, the southwest flow should scour out the remaining low level moisture and yield plentiful sunshine as well as warmer temperatures on Sunday, with highs heading for the upper 80s in most areas, a little cooler at the coast. So while neither day looks too bad, Sunday will get the nod as the pick of the weekend.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The medium-range period continues to look like a fairly typical August pattern will be in place for the Northeast. Our region will be on the southern fringe of faster midlevel flow (generally near/north of the International Border). Transient ridging will occur on Monday as a fairly strong trough begins to move eastward from central Canada and the adjacent northern U.S. Low-level return flow will become established by this time, and this will allow for a return to increased heat/humidity and daily chances of convection, which looks to continue at least through midweek.

Monday looks to be the driest day of the period for the CWA, as large-scale lift will generally be absent from the region. Most deterministic models are fairly sparse with QPF, as convection will require localized lift in an otherwise unfavorable synoptic-scale setup. Cannot rule out isolated storms via sea breezes or terrain effects, but suspect most areas will be dry Monday and Monday night.

Chances for convection gradually increase Tuesday through Thursday as the large-scale trough to the west moves into eastern Canada by Wednesday. A series of perturbations on the southern periphery of the larger-scale trough will eject eastward into the Northeast during this period. The 00z GFS indicates one such perturbation may affect the region and points northward Tuesday afternoon, with fairly widespread convection across the northern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon/evening. This will be largely dependent on timing and track of the perturbation, which will likely be convectively augmented and is of low predictability at this time range. I did, however, maintain or slightly increase PoPs Tuesday afternoon/evening for the area, as there is some support from the 00z CMC (though it favors areas north of us) and the 12z ECMWF.

The front will likely be in close enough proximity on Wednesday and Thursday to support chance PoPs both days, with favored timing during the afternoon and evening. The front will likely have a hard time moving southward, as it will impinge upon subtropical ridging and become displaced from stronger midlevel flow. This is a setup that favors locally heavy rainfall over time, though synoptic-scale lift will remain strongest well north of the eventual position of the front. Nevertheless, will monitor this potential given the wet conditions of late.

The pattern looks to continue through next weekend, though there may be a period in which the region is north of the front and becomes influenced by a surface high. However, the front will inevitably lift northward as the next upstream system begins to approach the area.

AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . For areas near and south of PHL, IFR cigs may linger through around 14z. Otherwise, mainly MVFR this morning but think most areas should transition to low end VFR for most of the afternoon. Areas of showers and isolated thunder through around midday, with a lull likely beyond then. Additional showers and thunderstorms are then possible mainly after 20z with sub-VFR conditions in any tstms. Winds mainly from the E or NE at 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . Initially, a mix of VFR and MVFR cigs with localized IFR or lower vsbys in areas of showers and tstms. Trending towards drier weather overnight, however it looks to be a favorable environment for fog formation. Suspect many areas will see IFR vsbys tonight especially after 06z. Light NE winds becoming light and variable or calm. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday-Saturday night . Mainly VFR, but areas of MVFR possible especially near MIV and ACY during the day Saturday. Slight chance of a rain shower but tstms not expected. Winds mainly light and variable. Moderate confidence.

Sunday-Sunday night . VFR. Light and variable wind becoming SW at 5 to 10 kt, except near the coast where an afternoon sea breeze is likely. High confidence.

Monday through Tuesday . Mainly VFR. A chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours, mainly on Tuesday. South to southwest winds 5 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Through tonight . Sub-SCA conditions expected. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A couple of wind shifts possible but easterly directions will be prevailing and speeds mainly 10 kt or less. Scattered tstms are possible for most of this period with locally higher winds and seas possible in any tstms.

Outlook .

Saturday-Saturday night . Sub-SCA conditions expected. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds mainly NE at 5 to 10 kt becoming light and variable overnight.

Sunday-Sunday night . Sub-SCA conditions expected. Seas around 2 ft. Light and variable winds initially on Sunday becoming southerly then southwesterly at around 10 kt through the overnight.

Monday through Tuesday . Sub-advisory winds/seas expected with slight chances of showers and storms, primarily on Tuesday.

Rip Currents .

Onshore flow varying at times from southeast to northeast will continue Friday and Saturday. With seas forecast to be around 2-3 feet with a swell period of around 6-8 seconds, the rip current forecast for Friday and Saturday is expected to be low.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park Pennsylvania (Station WNG-704) remains off the air.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ060>062-070-071- 101>106. NJ . Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NJZ009-010-012>027. DE . Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for DEZ001>004. MD . Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MDZ008-012-015-019- 020. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . CMS Near Term . O'Brien Short Term . O'Brien Long Term . CMS Aviation . CMS/O'Brien Marine . CMS/O'Brien Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 19 mi95 min NNW 2.9 73°F 1020 hPa71°F
44091 22 mi39 min 68°F3 ft
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 26 mi47 min 71°F 68°F1020 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi53 min ESE 2.9 G 7 70°F 73°F1020.9 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi89 min 70°F 74°F1019.7 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ18 mi69 minNE 510.00 miOvercast71°F69°F94%1020.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMJX

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE4E6E5SE8SE9SE9SE5--SE5CalmCalmE3CalmSE3NE3CalmE3CalmCalmNE3CalmNE5N9
1 day agoW5W55W3SW4W7W12W7W7W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for North Beach, Manahawkin Bay, New Jersey
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North Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:50 AM EDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:16 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:23 PM EDT     1.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:29 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.11.11.10.90.70.50.30.100.10.30.60.9110.90.70.60.40.20.20.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:16 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:06 AM EDT     -2.51 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:03 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:31 AM EDT     1.90 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:35 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:21 PM EDT     -2.00 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:43 PM EDT     2.16 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.3-0.7-1.5-2.2-2.5-2.2-1.3-0.11.11.81.81.30.5-0.3-1.1-1.6-2-1.9-1.101.122.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.