Tuesday, July27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holly Hills, CO

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 8:20PM Monday July 26, 2021 10:52 PM MDT (04:52 UTC) Moonrise 10:26PMMoonset 8:33AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Hills, CO
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location: 39.71, -104.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 270200 AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 800 PM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 754 PM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Only minor changes needed to current forecast. Satellite does show some increase in smoke so expect hazy skies to continue.

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 252 PM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Temperatures have been warming under mostly clear skies as the ridge began to build today, up to around 94 F at Denver so far. I adjusted temperatures up a bit to match but otherwise the forecast trend is good. Convection has been very limited this afternoon, only over the high terrain and producing little to no precipitation or hazards so far. That 500 mb noted in the morning sounding and mentioned in discussions this week appears to be suppressing development as expected. Continue to expect some isolated convection but confidence in any impacts is low. Models have continued to back off considerably on convection and I concur, and continued to reduce PoP. Our highest PoP remains over Park and Summit Counties due to the better moisture in the southwest part of Colorado.

It will be mostly clear overnight, with lows similar to or a few degrees warmer than last night for most areas. Temperatures will trend a bit warmer still tomorrow under mostly clear skies again and rising heights. Expect the mid to upper 90s across most of the plains, mid to upper 80s in the foothills and mountains valleys, and 70s to low 80s in the mountains. Convection will probably be even more limited tomorrow than it has been today.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 252 PM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021

The upper level ridge continues to dominate the synoptic picture Wednesday with PW values around half an inch across the higher elevations and up to 0.8 for most of the far eastern plains counties. According to model soundings there is a substantial dry intrusion in the mid-levels with a slightly cooler surface flow from the southeast that will help to keep conditions mostly dry. There is a small chance of weak moisture helping to kick off isolated convection over the higher foothills so will keep a mention of low pops in the forecast for Wednesday late afternoon. Otherwise 700mb temperatures in the 18-19C range will help to bring highs back into the upper 90s.

For the latter half of the week the upper level ridge will shift eastward and elongate helping to keep the brunt of the moisture plume to the west and north of the county warning area. However, we will see some improvement in PW with values inching up to 0.6-0.8 inches for the higher elevations and over an inch across portions of the eastern plains. On Thursday, a lee side surface low will form over the eastern plains that will drop south with a weak influx of air from the north. This flow will not be substantially cooler or more moist but will help to pull some higher dewpoints over the southern foothills with an increase in convection potential by the late afternoon. Flow through the column will be weak so could create slow moving storms where they form into the evening hours. Similar story for Friday with continued increased chances for storms over the higher terrain. Instability will be weak over the plains so expect most of the convection to remain over the higher terrain Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will stay higher then average with with temperatures in the upper 90s for both days.

For the weekend the upper ridge shifts southeast bringing the monsoon plume of moisture back over the region. Details are still coming together but there is some agreement on a front pushing in Saturday into Sunday. This will help with the mesoscale set-up for convection for the weekend with increased coverage for storms both days. Slow moving storms will increase short term flood potential across the region and especially for the area burn scars. The slightly cooler airmass behind the frontal push will help to bring highs back down into the 80s with lows in the 60s.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 754 PM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Winds will gradually become more southeast the next few hours and then south around midnight. Skies will remain hazy.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 252 PM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Isolated thunderstorms in the mountains this afternoon are expected to produce light precipitation, and only a minimal threat of burn area flash flooding. Tuesday will be similar, with probably even more limited thunderstorm activity and precipitation, and the burn scar flooding threat will remain minimal.

Wednesday will see limited thunderstorm activity over the mountains. Storms will be slow moving but the moisture supply is limited, so the threat of burn scar flooding will still be very low. Thursday and Friday will see both more coverage of storms and a bit more moisture, so there will be some increase in the threat. Saturday and Sunday look to have much more thunderstorm activity in an environment that is favorable for heavy rainfall, so the threat of heavy rain and burn scar flooding will be higher.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

UPDATE . RPK SHORT TERM . EJD LONG TERM . Bowen AVIATION . RPK HYDROLOGY . EJD/Bowen


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buckley Air Force Base Airport, CO11 mi55 minSE 1010.00 miFair72°F54°F54%1014.9 hPa
Denver - Centennial Airport, CO12 mi60 minSSE 710.00 miA Few Clouds76°F50°F40%1015 hPa
Broomfield / Jeffco, CO16 mi65 minE 510.00 miClear81°F39°F23%1022.7 hPa
Denver, Denver International Airport, CO18 mi60 minSSE 1010.00 miFair74°F56°F54%1013.1 hPa
Erie Municipal Airport, CO21 mi78 minESE 510.00 miFair74°F40°F30%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKF

Wind History from BKF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8S8SW6SW8S4SW7SW5SW6S5SW7SW7W5W4NW3CalmNE6NE9SE4NE6E6E8E6SE11SE10
1 day agoSE7SE7S7S5S7S6S7--CalmS5SW7W4CalmCalmSW4CalmN4E15
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2 days agoNW8NW7W6SW6SW6W4S7W4W4W4NW6N5NE7E4SE6E7SE10S6S3SW3E6SE5SE7S5

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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