Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holly Hills, CO

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:29PM Monday July 13, 2020 4:33 AM MDT (10:33 UTC) Moonrise 12:55AMMoonset 1:59PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Hills, CO
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location: 39.71, -104.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 131011 AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 411 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020

SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) Issued at 320 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020

500 mb high pressure elongated east/west and centered over southeast Arizona/southern New Mexico/west Texas through the day today, with a trough moving through southern Alberta/Manitoba today and tonight. Broad cyclonic flow over the northwest US and northern plains, with weaker zonal flow over Colorado between the low to the north and high to the south. A weak disturbance seen on water vapor loop moving out of the foothills and onto the plains early this morning, with light showers over the Palmer Divide & south. Water vapor showing a second wave moving out of eastern UT into western CO with light precip and a downward trend in lightning. This second wave is due into the forecast area along the divide by sunrise, and into the plains by midday.

700 mb temps forecast today in the mid teens, similar to yesterday and expect high temperatures to be similar to yesterday as well. Hot temperatures in the 90s on the plains and 80s in the mountains will generate steep lapse rates, with dry in the low levels and an inverted V sounding up to 550 mb or so. Mid tropospheric moisture is abundant, with precipitable water closing in on a inch over the eastern plains and 3/4 along the foothills. 0-6km shear rises to 40- 50 kts 3-6pm along the northern tier of plains counties, as well as eastern Washington & Sedgwick. We'll most likely have two bouts of convective activity, with the wave moving out of the foothills early afternoon, and then a second weak impulse later in the afternoon to early evening. High resolution models indicate showers and thunderstorms around midday over the plains, then more development 3-6pm timeframe.

Timing of the mid day wave and associated lift doesn't quite match up with best instability and shear, with later round to take advantage of better shear and high CAPE. Heavy rainers a possibility given the high PWATs, along with the potential for wet microbursts. On far eastern plains, in best shear and CAPES over 2000 j/kg, supercell storms possible per SPC's enhanced risk in that area.

For tonight, storms move on east with clear to partly cloudy skies. Dewpoints remain rather moist, upper 50s on the eastern plains and upper 30s and 40s in the mountains & will limit radiational cooling. Lows tonight similar to previous, upper 50s to near 60 plains and 40s in the high country.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 408 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Models have west-southwesterly flow aloft for the CWA Tuesday and Tuesday night with the upper ridge flattened out and well to the south of Colorado. The upper ridge builds back into western Colorado on Wednesday, with flat upper ridging over the state Wednesday night. The flow aloft is weak and west-southwesterly Wednesday night. The QG Omega fields have weak upward vertical velocity progged Tuesday and Tuesday night, then downward motion is progged Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Models are still showing an upslope surge with a cooler airmass on Tuesday and north-northeast winds into the afternoon, then easterlies late day, and then southeasterlies in the evening. Weak drainage winds are in place overnight. More normal diurnal wind patterns are expected Wednesday and Wednesday night with pretty strong drainage flow Wednesday night. For moisture, precipitable water values are in the 1.00 to 1.40 inch range for the plains with 0.50 to 1.00 inch in the mountains and foothills Tuesday through Wednesday night. There is some CAPE progged on Tuesday, mainly over the high country and southern CWA. Most of the plains are somewhat stable from the new airmass. CAPE is more abundant late day Wednesday. Lapse rates on the cross sections have a decent cap in place for most of the plains through Tuesday afternoon. This relaxes in the evening, somewhat. There is cap in place on Wednesday as well, but it is not very strong. The QPF fields have fairly decent amounts of measurable rainfall Tuesday evening and again late day Wednesday. As far as pops go, models point to a "late show" both days; Tuesday and Wednesday. For temperatures, Tuesday highs should be 3-8 C cooler than today's highs. The NAM is way cooler than the GFS and ECMWF; it is a significant outlier. Wednesday is warmer by 1-4 C over Tuesday for high temperatures. For the later days, Thursday through Sunday, models keep flat upper ridging in place with weak flow aloft for the CWA all four days. Moisture is not that good. Temperatures are a bit above normals.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 859 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Outflow boundaries will continue to bring gusty winds to BJC and DEN through 04z before settling in a predominately southwesterly direction. For Monday, another round of showers will be possible with gusty and erratic winds due to outflows from storms to the east. Northeast and southeast gates will be impacted.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SHORT TERM . Hanson LONG TERM . RJK AVIATION . Bowen


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buckley Air Force Base Airport, CO11 mi96 minS 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy69°F41°F37%1007.8 hPa
Denver - Centennial Airport, CO12 mi41 minSW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F37°F24%1007.9 hPa
Broomfield / Jeffco, CO16 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair72°F39°F31%1016.3 hPa
Denver, Denver International Airport, CO18 mi41 minSSW 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F42°F34%1005.4 hPa
Erie Municipal Airport, CO21 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair69°F39°F33%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKF

Wind History from BKF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS19
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S17S17SW15SW16SW7N7NE11E9N8NW16
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SW11SW11SW8S7SW7N10E6SE8S8S10S10S10
1 day agoNW6NW8N6NW8N6N6NW5E4N5NE4NE10E9
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E7E9E9E7E8SE8SE10S6S11S16S16S19
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2 days agoS7S4W3S3SW7W4CalmN5NE5S5NE5NE5NE7E4SE6S7SE7SW3S9S7--NE11N8NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Denver/Boulder, CO (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Denver/Boulder, CO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.