Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Barry, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:34PM Monday July 13, 2020 7:05 AM CDT (12:05 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:01PM Illumination 44% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Barry, IL
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location: 39.71, -91     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 131118 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 618 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

SHORT TERM. (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Northwest upper level flow has taken hold over the Middle- Mississippi Valley with surface high pressure stretching across much of the Midwest. The surface high will continue to drift eastward today, gradually shifting easterly surface winds around to the southeast. These veering winds should support slight warmer temperatures than what we saw yesterday, in line with most guidance. The combination of surface high pressure, weak mid-level height rises, and a fairly dry column should keep cloud coverage to a minimum.

BSH

LONG TERM. (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Attention of the extended forecast remains squarely focused on the potential for another round of dangerous heat beginning by mid week. While some uncertainty remains, primarily thanks to mid week storm chances, it is increasingly likely that we see heat index readings nearing 100 as early as Tuesday and topping 105 by the weekend, requiring another round of heat headlines.

On Tuesday, surface high pressure will continue to drift east, fully swinging surface winds around to the south and drawing notably warmer temperatures and dewpoints into the region. 850mb temperatures are expected to climb possibly as high as 22C across central MO supporting surface temps in the low 90s. With dewpoints expected in the mid to upper 60s, we'll likely see heat index readings climb into upper 90s, perhaps topping 100 in a few locations in central MO and around the STL metro. We may see a few storms in the late morning or early afternoon associated with a dying MCS and increasing warm air advection, but I'm thinking the forecast will stay mostly dry thanks to a fairly dry column and weak mid-level height rises.

Speaking of the mid levels, a couple of shortwaves are expected to ripple through the region in the middle of the week. The first disturbance will pass through Upper Midwest on Tuesday before a more pronounced wave moves through the Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. These waves will drive a cold front to near the MO/IA border on Tuesday before pushing the front into our forecast area on Wednesday. Storms are likely along the front, though questions remain as to when exactly the front will reach our forecast area. While storms are possible across our north as early as Tuesday afternoon, the best storm chances will be during peak heating on Wednesday as the sharper wave moves through the area. Given the stronger dynamics associated with the shortwaves, deep layer shear is expected to approach 40kts on Tuesday night and Wednesday, which may allow for a few storms to become strong to severe.

On Wednesday, persistent southerly flow south of the front will continue to usher even warmer temperatures and dewpoints into the region. Unfortunately questions regarding frontal timing, placement, and associated thunderstorms make for a difficult temperature forecast. Ensemble spread for Wednesday's high is rather large, with the middle 50 percent of guidance ranging from the upper 80s to the upper 90s. This means that reasonable solutions range from keeping maximum heat index readings well below 100 to pushing them to dangerous levels necessitating a heat headline. Questions about the front continue right on into Thursday. The GFS/GEFS solution pushes the front clear through the region by Thursday while the ECMWF and it's ensembles hangs the front up over the region, keeping precip chances in the area and temperatures a bit warmer.

By Friday, the upper high/ridge will move atop our region, with NAEFS and ECMWF ensembles showing 500mb heights in the 90th percentile of the seasonal climatology. Beneath these anomalous heights, we'll likely see very warm temperatures build into the lower levels of the atmosphere, with 850 temperatures nearing 24C by the weekend. Increasing confidence in late-week dangerous heat, ensemble spread for weekend high temperatures is actually fairly narrow for a 5-7 day forecast, centered in the mid to upper 90s. Should this occur, we will likely see afternoon heat index readings in the 105-110 range.

BSH

AVIATION. (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning) Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period as winds gradually shift from the the east to the southeast by tomorrow morning.

BSH

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . None. IL . None.

WFO LSX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pittsfield, Pittsfield Penstone Municipal Airport, IL13 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair63°F62°F100%1015.9 hPa
Quincy Regional Airport-Baldwin Field, IL19 mi72 minE 410.00 miFair67°F61°F81%1014.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPPQ

Wind History from PPQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3NW7NW7N4NW6N3N7N5N5NW5N6N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmSW3W4SW5SW5SW5W7W7W10
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2 days agoNW5N8N5NW6W7W7W10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.