Friday, November27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Williams, NJ

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 4:38PM Friday November 27, 2020 5:32 PM EST (22:32 UTC) Moonrise 3:23PMMoonset 4:09AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 404 Pm Est Fri Nov 27 2020
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S late. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 404 Pm Est Fri Nov 27 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will build towards the area this weekend, before eventually moving offshore Sunday afternoon. A complex low pressure system will move in from the southwest on Monday and will slowly lift north of the area on Tuesday. High pressure will then build in towards the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Williams, NJ
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location: 39.73, -75     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 272006 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 306 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build towards the area this weekend, before eventually moving offshore Sunday afternoon. A complex low pressure system will move in from the southwest on Monday and will slowly lift north of the area on Tuesday. High Pressure will then build in towards the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/.

High pressure will continue to nose into our region from the west tonight. An extensive area of stratocumulus will remain over much of the Northeast. The clouds are trapped under a temperature inversion. Even though some breaks may develop, the clouds are expected to be persistent until the inversion begins to weaken late tonight. A deck of mid level clouds in advance of an approaching short wave trough are forecast to pass over our region from late tonight into Saturday morning.

The mid level short wave was located over the upper Mississippi River Valley this afternoon. The feature will progress to the southeast and it should pass over our region during the late morning and early afternoon hours on Saturday. The short wave will have little moisture associated with it, so no precipitation is anticipated. Rapid clearing is expected in its wake late on Saturday afternoon.

A light and variable wind is forecast for tonight. The wind should become west 5 to 10 MPH on Saturday morning, then northwest 10 to 15 MPH with gusts around 20 MPH on Saturday afternoon, following the short wave.

Lows tonight are expected to range from the middle 30s in the elevated terrain of the Poconos and far northern New Jersey to the middle 40s in eastern Maryland, and central and southern Delaware. Highs on Saturday will likely favor the 50s, with readings not getting above the 40s up north.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/.

High pressure will build in from the south Saturday night/Sunday while an H5 shortwave ridge approaches from the west. Seasonably chilly temperatures (i.e. lows near freezing) are expected Saturday night as clear skies, dry low-lvls, and light winds generate an efficient radiational cooling setup. Due to the influence of the surface high/mid-lvl ridge mostly sunny skies are expected on Sunday with high temperatures similar to Saturday (mostly mid 50s).

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/.

Overview .

As mentioned in previous discussions a hemispheric pattern change is expected next week, with the overall synoptic pattern becoming characterized by a longwave trough over eastern North America, and a high amplitude ridge over the west.

In terms of specifics, a southern stream low (at present a cutoff low over the desert southwest) will constructively phase with a northern shortwave in the vicinity of the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday. This system will become a closed low which will only slowly lift north through mid-week, with the cold core making its closest approach to our area on Tuesday. The system's surface low will pass to our west Monday into Tuesday with High Pressure then returning for the middle of the week. Another shortwave will rotate cyclonically around the western periphery of this initial low towards the middle of next week, with another area of low pressure potentially approaching our area from the south late week into next weekend.

Dailies .

Sunday night-Monday . This will be the most active period of the extended as the strengthening southern stream low makes it closest approach to our area. Rain chances will begin to increase late Sunday night as warm advection aloft gets into gear, with rainfall likely overspreading the entire region by Monday morning as the low approaches. There is a fairly robust synoptic setup for locally moderate-heavy rainfall on Monday as we will find ourselves in the left exit region of the southern-stream UL jet (although we are a bit removed of the right entrance of the northern jet, so we don't get the complimentary jet interaction), while at the low-lvls intense warm air/moisture advection will occur driven by a strong LLJ (850 flow approaching 60-70kts near the coast). Some of the guidance is also beginning to show a brief window late Monday morning into Monday afternoon where there is some surface-based instability present which perhaps even hints at some convective potential. Did add slight-chance thunder to the forecast to account for this, and may also need to watch for a low-topped severe threat (given the very strong wind fields aloft). QPF amounts are generally similar to the previous forecast (e.g. in the 0.75-1.5 inch range), which (if accurate) would be a good soaking but would likely not lead to many significant hydro impacts.

Beyond the rainfall potential, winds will need to be watched with this system due to the aforementioned LLJ. Per usual in these warm advective, southerly flow regimes the main question is if any of this anomalously-high momentum will mix down to the surface. For this package generally went with peak overland gusts in the 25-35kt range for Monday, but can't rule out locations along the immediate coast (where the LLJ is strongest and low- lvl stability lowest). reaching advisory criteria. On a somewhat-related note, went on the higher end of guidance for MaxTs and dewpoints on Monday, as guidance tends to underestimate the thermodynamic response in these setups.

Monday night-Tuesday . The first cold front associated this system looks to cross the area Monday evening, and the system's dry slot then moves into our area. This should result in any rainfall tapering off, with temperatures steadily cooling through the night. Heading into Tuesday, we may see some light precipitation as the mid-lvl cold core approaches, but do not expect anything significant (and ptype would likely remain as rain). It will be noticeably cooler on Tuesday with highs generally in the upper 40s.

Wednesday-Thursday . A respite from active weather is expected in this time period as the low lifts northward and high pressure builds in from the south. Wednesday will be seasonably cool with highs only in the low to mid 40s, while temps should warm up about 5 degrees on Thursday. Another low potentially approaches from the south Friday/Saturday but the track/timing of this system is still uncertain.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR under a mostly cloudy sky. Variable wind 6 knots or less. High confidence.

Saturday . VFR. Mostly cloudy in the morning, with clearing during the afternoon. West northwest wind increasing to around 10 knots with gusts of 15 to 20 knots. High confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday night . VFR. West-northwest flow, but winds may become light and variable or calm. High confidence.

Sunday-Sunday night . VFR although CIGs will likely start to gradually lower Sunday night as a storm system approaches. Winds mostly light and variable on Sunday but becoming mainly light south or southwest. Overnight, a 5 to 10 kt southeast wind should develop. High confidence.

Monday-Monday night . Sub-VFR conditions expected much of the day Monday in rain, which may be heavy at times. Conditions may turn drier overnight but lingering restrictions are possible. Southeast winds during the day could gust 25 to 35 kt, with a period of higher gusts possible especially near the coast. LLWS will also be possible, particularly at sites where wind gusts are weaker. Winds should diminish overnight. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday-Tuesday night . Mainly MVFR or VFR. Winds becoming south or southwest at 5 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . VFR, with W-SW winds 10-15kts. Moderate confidence.

MARINE.

A northwesterly wind is forecast to increase to 10 to 15 knots for late tonight and Saturday morning. Speeds are expected to range from 15 to 20 knots on Saturday afternoon.

Wave heights on our ocean waters should be 2 to 3 feet. Waves on Delaware Bay are forecast to be 2 feet or less.

Outlook .

Saturday night-Sunday night . Sub-SCA conditions are expected, although winds and seas will increase late Sunday night. Northwest winds through Sunday morning shifting to southwest and then southeast on Sunday night. Seas initially around 2 ft then increasing to 4ft by late Sunday night.

Monday . S-SE winds increase considerably Monday with Gale force gusts probable and gusts to 40-45kts possible on the ocean waters. Seas will also increase into the 8-10ft range. Rain expected with thunderstorms possible.

Monday night-Wednesday . SCA conditions expected for more or less the entirety of this period with SW wind gusts remaining around 25kts and seas only gradually decreasing from around 8 ft Monday night to 5-6ft on Wednesday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Carr Near Term . Iovino Short Term . Carr Long Term . Carr Aviation . Carr/Iovino Marine . Carr/Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 16 mi44 min 57°F 50°F1015.5 hPa
BDSP1 18 mi44 min 57°F 50°F1015.8 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 23 mi44 min 52°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 25 mi56 min WNW 4.1 G 6 55°F 46°F
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 31 mi62 min NW 1.9 58°F 1017 hPa49°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 31 mi44 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 56°F 47°F1016.2 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 33 mi44 min Calm G 1 55°F 44°F1015.9 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 33 mi44 min 52°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 36 mi44 min 56°F 1016.6 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 40 mi44 min 58°F 55°F1016.6 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi44 min 51°F

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA17 mi38 minNW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy56°F43°F62%1016 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ17 mi38 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F44°F65%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHL

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW6W8NW5CalmNW3SW4SW3SW3CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmS3NW4N4NW6NW4W6W6W5NW6
1 day agoS435SE4E3E3E4CalmW6S7SW6SW9S11S14S10S10
G19
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2 days agoSE3S4S4CalmE3SE4SE4SE3S5SE6SE4S5S4S5S5S7S11SW9S13
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Tide / Current Tables for Mantua, Mantua Creek, New Jersey
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Mantua
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:47 AM EST     4.09 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:10 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:55 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:15 PM EST     4.29 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:25 PM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.94.13.62.821.30.60.30.71.52.33.13.84.34.13.42.61.81.10.40.41.11.92.7

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:51 AM EST     -1.53 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:10 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:43 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:14 AM EST     1.23 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 12:06 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 04:56 PM EST     -1.62 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:16 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:37 PM EST     1.15 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-1.1-1.4-1.5-1.5-1.4-0.80.30.911.210.1-0.7-1.3-1.5-1.6-1.6-1.3-0.30.70.91.11.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.