Friday, January22, 2021
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
North Star, DE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:12PM Friday January 22, 2021 11:40 AM EST (16:40 UTC) Moonrise 12:23PMMoonset 1:49AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 941 Am Est Fri Jan 22 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Rest of today..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely with a chance of snow in the afternoon. Freezing rain, snow and sleet through the night. Rain after midnight.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Snow and sleet likely in the morning, then a chance of rain and snow in the afternoon.
ANZ500 941 Am Est Fri Jan 22 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will push through our region today. High pressure over the midwest will build eastward through the weekend. Low pressure may impact the region early next week. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for portions of the waters through the weekend. A gale warning may be required for portions of the waters Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed Monday into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Star, DE
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location: 39.75, -75.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 221107 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 607 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. A clipper system will cross into New England, bringing a cold front to our region by late today. Low pressure will remain across eastern Canada through Saturday, while high pressure builds across the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes and eventually into our area by Sunday. This will keep strong west to northwest flow across the Mid Atlantic through Sunday. A low pressure system will cross just south of our region Monday into Tuesday. High Pressure then builds into the area later Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Today will start off fairly quiet, but things could become more active by late morning into the afternoon and evening hours. Low pressure will move across New England through the day, which will eventually bring a cold front across the Mid Atlantic region by late day. Meanwhile, high pressure remains well to our west across the Upper Mississippi Valley. This will keep a strong pressure gradient in place leading to a steady west to northwest flow across the area and winds could gust 20-30 mph at times. The other thing to watch out for today will be the potential for rain/snow/graupel showers or sprinkles/flurries. Within the west to northwest flow, lapse rates will be moderately steep, while there will be some enhanced moisture across the area. Some enhanced lift from multiple short wave/vorticity impulses and approaching surface boundary could help lead to a slight chance of snow showers/flurries or rain showers/sprinkles today into tonight. This is especially true for portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey along and north of the I-78 corridor where lapse rates are steepest and moisture is highest. It would not be out of the question for a brief period of moderate to heavy snow for higher elevations. However, it would also not be surprising to see some flurries/sprinkles make it down to the I-95 corridor and portions of southern New Jersey. This could be another one of those situations where temperatures warm up enough that it will not be true snow showers/flurries for some areas, rather snow pellets/graupel for some areas as the snow partially melts before reaching the ground.

The steep lapse rates pull to our east this evening as the frontal boundary moves eastward as well, so any remaining flurries should mostly come to an end through the evening. The exception is the southern Poconos where flurries could last into the overnight.

Strong northwest flow will remain in place across the Mid Atlantic region through Saturday as the pressure gradient actually tightens a bit due to retrograding low pressure over Atlantic Canada and high pressure building into the Great Lakes. Winds will remain gusty across the area, especially during the day Saturday when gusts could reach 25-35 mph, with locally higher gusts. It will also be quite cold Saturday with highs only in the 20s over the southern Poconos and NW NJ with low to mid 30s elsewhere. And with the wind chill it will feel a good 10 to 15 degrees or so colder than this. Expect a mix of sun and clouds with cloudiness tending to be most persistent over the north, especially during the morning.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. The main feature of note in the short term is the surface high that builds in from the north over our region. In the mid and upper levels, a broad but weak ridge axis builds closer to the region. The net result is tranquil conditions. We will keep the northwesterly flow (albeit weaker than what we will see on Saturday) until the surface ridge axis is east of our region Sunday night. Consequently, we won't see much change in the temperatures from Saturday into Sunday.

Ahead of the approaching low, mid level clouds will build in on Sunday night, though any precipitation should still remain west of our region through this time. The clouds will help to limit radiational cooling Sunday night, resulting in lows mostly in the 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Monday through Tuesday . The main focus of the long term remains the Monday through Tuesday time frame with the low crossing just south of our region.

What has changed: Models are converging closer to a track for this system. It now appears that the first low will lift into the mid Mississippi Valley before weakening as the secondary low develops and intensifies just off the southern Delmarva coast. Consequently, we have more confidence that most (if not all) of our region will see some precipitation from this system, though there remains uncertainty in details especially with regards to precipitation type.

Timing: It looks like the prime period for precipitation will be from about mid day Monday to mid day Tuesday, though that could vary greatly by location, and given potential for a very dry boundary layer ahead of this (single digit dewpoints possible in northern NJ and southern Poconos through Mon morning), it may take more time for the boundary layer to saturate and precip to reach the ground than what the models are currently depicting.

Precipitation type: There has been enough consistency and agreement between models on the presence of an elevated warm layer, that I included a mention of sleet in some areas with this latest update. There is still a question as to how far north this elevated warm layer will be, and for many locations, the elevated warm layer could be thin and/or isothermal (complicating the question of if snow will even melt within the warm layer). With this uncertainty in mind, at this point, it looks like it will be mostly snow north of the PA turnpike/195 corridor, a wintry mix along and south of this corridor, and mostly rain in far southern Delaware and adjacent areas of Maryland.

Precipitation Amounts: There is still a lot of uncertainty with this aspect of the forecast. With our area remaining on the northern side of the low (with the current forecast track), there will be limited opportunity for moisture advection ahead of this system. This isn't a classic coastal low as it will be quickly progressing further off shore once it is east of us, so this doesn't appear to be a system that will produce blockbuster amounts of snow. That being said, and with the consideration of how much uncertainty there remains with precip type, it will likely be Saturday afternoon before we will have enough confidence for a snow/ice/rain amount forecast that covers the entire event.

Impacts: As mentioned above, it doesn't appear that this will be a really big snow event at this point, but slippery conditions will be a concern, especially in the areas that will see more of a wintry mix. Additionally, if freezing rain becomes more likely (currently think that is the least likely ptype we will see, but there remains some chance), ice accretion on elevated surfaces could be compounded by the fact that breezy conditions will be possible (mostly for near shore areas) late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Wednesday and Thursday . In the wake of the low, high pressure once again builds down from the north. The models continue to depict a low pressure system late in the week (Thursday into Friday), however, almost all of the major operational models (with the exception of the Canadian) show this low surpressed to the south (as has been the case with most recent systems), keeping the precipitation mostly south of our region. None the less, given how far out this system is, I am hesitant to go with a dry forecast at this point, so I stayed close to the previous forecast, with mostly low chances for snow/rain from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening.

AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR expected. There is a slight chance of snow showers or flurries, especially for ABE and RDG, but they were left out of the TAFs as confidence is low in occurrence. West to northwest winds 10-20 knots, gusting 20-25 knots. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . VFR with NW winds around 10 knots with a few higher gusts possible.

Saturday . VFR but windy with NW winds 15 to 20 gusting 25 to 30 knots.

Outlook .

Sunday . VFR conditions expected. Northwesterly winds initially 10-15kts gusting up to 20 kt gradually decreasing in the afternoon and then becoming light and variable overnight. Moderate confidence.

Monday/Tuesday . Will likely start VFR early Monday, but expect conditions to deteriorate to MVFR and even IFR across the region by late Monday into Tuesday morning. Reductions in flight category will be both for ceilings as well as visibility restrictions as much of the region will see at least some precipitation during this time. Precipitation type remains uncertain, but a wintry mix of snow and sleet is possible for KPHL, KILG, KPNE, KTTN, KMIV, and KACY, while KABE and KRDG may have a mostly snow event. Variable winds on Monday, then favoring the NE quarter of the compass on Tuesday. Low confidence.

MARINE. Today through Saturday night . Small Craft Advisory remains in place through Friday night with a Gale Watch now in effect from 6 AM Saturday morning until 10 PM in the evening as NW winds may gust up to 35 knots. Expect wave heights over the ocean waters to increase to 3 to 5 feet today and then to 4 to 6 feet for Saturday.

Outlook .

Sunday-Monday . Once winds drop below 25 kt Sunday morning, winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria.

Monday night/Tuesday . SCA conditions are possible, but this is dependent upon track and intensity of a low pressure system.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for ANZ430-431-450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ430-431- 450>455.

Synopsis . Johnson Near Term . Fitzsimmons/Robertson Short Term . Johnson Long Term . Johnson Aviation . Fitzsimmons/Johnson Marine . Fitzsimmons/Johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 15 mi53 min 38°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 16 mi53 min NW 8 G 11 43°F 30°F1009.4 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 18 mi53 min 43°F 39°F1009 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 20 mi53 min 44°F 40°F1008.7 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 37 mi53 min 45°F 38°F1008.2 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 38 mi53 min WNW 16 G 19 43°F 39°F1009.8 hPa
BDSP1 41 mi53 min 44°F 43°F1008.2 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 44 mi53 min W 6 G 7 41°F 39°F1010.1 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE11 mi50 minWNW 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F20°F38%1009.4 hPa
Chester County Airport, PA16 mi66 minWNW 11 G 2110.00 miPartly Cloudy41°F19°F42%1008.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILG

Wind History from ILG (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Millside, RR. bridge, Delaware
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Millside
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:30 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:48 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:25 AM EST     4.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:15 PM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:55 PM EST     4.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.30.31.12.43.44.24.74.6432.11.30.70.40.61.52.63.44.14.443.12.1

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:34 AM EST     1.85 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:48 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:05 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:33 AM EST     -2.00 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:29 AM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:19 PM EST     1.93 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:33 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:00 PM EST     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:43 PM EST     0.03 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.81.81.40.4-1.2-1.7-2-2-1.7-1.3-0.80.91.61.91.81.50.8-0.7-1.2-1.4-1.2-0.80.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.