Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Forked River, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:33PM Monday December 9, 2019 2:04 AM EST (07:04 UTC) Moonrise 4:08PMMoonset 5:13AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1252 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am est this morning through late tonight...
Rest of tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Areas of drizzle. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less late.
Mon night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Rain likely, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the late evening and overnight.
Tue..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 8 ft in the late morning and afternoon. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of rain.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Thu night..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 1252 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A warm front will lift through the region Monday as an area of low pressure tracks through the great lakes. A cold front associated with that low will then approach and cross the region Tuesday. A wave of low pressure tracking along the front will likely affect the mid-atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday. Strong high pressure will build in Thursday and into Friday. Another low pressure system may approach the region next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forked River, NJ
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location: 39.83, -74.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 090621 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 121 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will lift through the region Monday as an area of low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes. A cold front associated with that low will then approach and cross the region Tuesday. A wave of low pressure tracking along the front will likely affect the mid-Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday. Strong high pressure will build in Thursday and into Friday. Another low pressure system may approach the region next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. Light rain and drizzle has begun to develop and spread across the area.and will eventually become a steady rain by daybreak. Temperatures are right around freezing for a few areas across northern New Jersey and northeast Pennsylvania, so some spotty areas of freezing rain/drizzle may occur. However, it will be very spotty and temperatures will continue to warm above freezing over the next couple of hours, so we only issued an SPS instead of an advisory.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/. Things are not shaping up to be the best weather day Monday as low pressure to our west moves closer toward the mid-Atlantic and southerly flow ahead of the system draws moister air into the region. An initial vorticity impulse along the warm front will lead to an initial round of moderate rainfall across the region through the morning hours, especially from I-95 and points east. Conditions may turn a little more showery into the afternoon before a broader area of steady rain moves eastward from central Pennsylvania. At this point, all rain is forecast for the initial portion of this system. The one uplifting aspect is that the highs will trend much warmer tomorrow, reaching into the 50s and 60s across the region (upper 40s across the Poconos). Southerly winds will also begin to trend upwards with gusts from 20-25 mph possible by the evening and into the overnight hours. Total rainfall through this period is expected to near an inch, but given the extended duration, this is not expected to result in any more than localized nuisance flooding.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Tuesday . As mentioned by the previous shift, we should start the day in the warm sector. However, some guidance trended faster with the front (it may now cross our region mid day, and be off shore as early as mid afternoon), which brings uncertainty into how long we will be in the dry slot on Tuesday morning. However, I am always a bit cautious of a front crossing during the middle of the day when the mid and upper level trough lags so far behind the front at the surface. Therefore, I made few changes to the temperatures and PoPs during the day on Tuesday. Even if the front does arrive by mid day, expect any precipitation (even late Tuesday afternoon) to be all rain.

Tuesday night and Wednesday . Still considerable uncertainty through this period. The front should progress further off shore, but the mid and upper level trough digs in closer to the region, so most guidance depicts precipitation continuing overnight and through much of the day on Wednesday. Without significant cyclogensis just off shore, it would be difficult to get that much precipitation behind the front in this kind of pattern as we should have persistent dry air advection behind the front. If we do have precipitation into Wednesday morning thanks to significant cold air advection we should see precipitation change over to snow mostly north and west of the fall line, and a rain/snow mix along the coastal plains. As mentioned by the previous shift, even if it does happen, it will likely be little more than a nuisance snow, with the possible exception of northwest NJ and the southern Poconos which could see a few inches of accumulation. Though snow totals did increase a bit, this is not the result of major changes in the forecast, rather, the forecast is now incorporating snow amounts during the day Wednesday in addition to Tuesday night.

Thursday . Dry and cold as strong (~1040 mb) high pressure builds in from the west. Generally expect highs to only top out in the low to mid 30s based on 925mb (approximately the top of the mixed layer) temps of -6 to -9C. Given the dry airmass and light winds near the center of the high left Thursday's lows on the lower end of guidance (ranging from low teens up north to the mid 20s over Delmarva, with teens possible in the colder spots of southern/central NJ as well).

Friday . The high will shift to our northeast on Friday, with a warmer and moister east-southeast flow developing over the area. Generally expect dry weather, although the Canadian attempts to bring a southern-stream coastal low through the area in the afternoon, while the GFS attempts to initiate some overunning precipitation Friday afternoon. Given that it will likely take some time for the lower-lvls to moisten suspect that initiating precipitation Friday afternoon is a bit too fast so generally went Slight Chc PoPs. Highs will run about 10 degrees warmer than Thursday with greater warming felt near the coast due to the onshore flow.

Friday night into Saturday . Likely will see rain during this period, however the nature/forcing for this precipitation is currently unclear. The GFS keeps the primary sfc. low inland, and brings it through the Great Lakes late Saturday, while the EC indicates the coastal low will become the primary low and brings it through our area on Saturday (the Canadian depicts this low passing Friday night). Consequently whether we get an warm advective/shortwave driven precipitation event (GFS) or a low- lvl confluence /synoptic-lift driven precipitation event (EC) is unknown. Regardless we should be fairly warm on Saturday with highs generally in the 50s.

Saturday night/Sunday . Given model uncertainties from previous period, the forecast in this period is naturally uncertain. That being said the current guidance suite puts us post-frontal by Sunday with some drying and cooling (although the postfrontal airmass does not seem particularly cold) indicated in the forecast.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Ceilings are lowering to MVFR and will continue to lower to IFR through daybreak. Rain and drizzle will continue to develop and to move into the region through daybreak as well. Light and variable wind will turn south- southeasterly by daybreak to 5 knots. High confidence.

Monday and Monday night . MVFR with periods of IFR conditions possible with a mostly steady moderate rain all day. A few breaks are possible with conditions turning more showery into the late afternoon and evening. Southerly winds from 10 to 15 knots and gusts from 20 to 30 knots possible will turn more southwesterly into Monday night. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Tuesday and Tuesday night . There may be a brief period of VFR conditions Tuesday morning, but mostly MVFR or even IFR conditions are likely Tuesday afternoon and night. Southwesterly winds abruptly shifting to northwesterly Tuesday afternoon 10 to 15 kt with some gusts to 20 kt especially Tuesday afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . The day will likely start with widespread MVFR or even IFR conditions, but by afternoon, conditions should be gradually improving to VFR. Westerly winds near 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night-Thursday . VFR. Light northwest winds becoming northerly on Thursday. High Confidence.

Thursday night-Friday . Generally VFR. Light northeasterly winds Thursday night veering more easterly (around 5kts) on Friday. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Winds are currently below advisory levels, so the previous Small Craft Advisory was cancelled. However, another advisory was issued for today through tonight as wind gusts will increase to 25 to 30 knots from south to north through the day.

Gale force gusts may be possible by Tuesday morning, however confidence is not particularly high yet.

Outlook .

Tuesday and Tuesday night . SCA conditions likely especially on the coastal waters through the day Tuesday with southwesterly winds shifting northwesterly in the afternoon, and gusts up to 30 kt possible. Tuesday night, winds and seas should gradually diminish below SCA criteria.

Wednesday . Conditions should stay below SCA criteria, though some westerly gusts above 20 kt are possible.

Thursday . Sub SCA conditions expected with northerly- northeasterly winds gusting 15-20kts.

Friday . Seas potentially increasing above SCA criteria Friday PM but uncertainty is high. Winds becoming easterly and gusting 15-20 kts by Friday afternoon.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ451>455. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ450. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Johnson Near Term . Davis/Robertson Short Term . Davis Long Term . Carr/Johnson Aviation . Carr/Davis/Johnson Marine . Carr/Davis/Johnson/Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 21 mi34 min 51°F3 ft
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 26 mi94 min Calm 40°F 1027 hPa37°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 36 mi52 min 49°F 44°F1025.8 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi52 min Calm G 1 39°F 38°F1026.3 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 42 mi88 min E 1 G 1 38°F 38°F1026 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 44 mi34 min WNW 3.9 G 3.9 47°F 1025.9 hPa44°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 45 mi46 min NW 4.1 G 7 42°F 40°F1026.3 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ10 mi68 minN 010.00 miOvercast37°F0°F%1026.6 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi64 minN 0 miLight Rain40°F36°F86%1025.6 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi68 minWNW 510.00 miOvercast40°F37°F89%1026.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMJX

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6S8S8S10S8S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalm
1 day ago--NW4CalmNW4NW6NW7NW9
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2 days agoCalmS3CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmS8S10S15
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Tide / Current Tables for Stouts Creek, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Stouts Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:46 AM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:13 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:46 AM EST     0.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:30 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:09 PM EST     0.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10000.10.20.20.30.30.30.20.20.10000.10.10.20.20.30.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:45 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:13 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:33 AM EST     2.15 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:59 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:49 AM EST     -2.50 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:44 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:09 PM EST     1.78 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:17 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:58 PM EST     -2.17 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.8-0.90.31.322.11.60.8-0-0.8-1.6-2.3-2.5-1.9-0.90.31.31.81.610.2-0.6-1.3-1.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.