Monday, September28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Forked River, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 6:44PM Monday September 28, 2020 12:33 AM EDT (04:33 UTC) Moonrise 5:43PMMoonset 3:25AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1002 Pm Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Overnight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers early in the morning. Patchy fog early in the morning. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas around 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ400 1002 Pm Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Weak low pressure off the coast will track into new england overnight. To our west, a cold front will move into pennsylvania Monday. A few weak areas of low pressure riding north along the front, will slow down on Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves through the forecast area. Another cold front will arrive Thursday night into Friday. In it's wake, cooler air will settle in over the region into next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forked River, NJ
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location: 39.83, -74.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 280125 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 925 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak low pressure off the coast will track into New England overnight. To our west, a cold front will move into Pennsylvania Monday. A few weak areas of low pressure riding north along the front, will slow down on Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves through the forecast area. Another cold front will arrive Thursday night into Friday. In it's wake, cooler air will settle in over the region into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. Minor changes from the earlier update. Scattered showers continue across Delmarva, southern NJ and into parts of SE PA. These showers are circulating around the disturbance off the coast. Another weak disturbance will move across the region later tonight, so we will keep the slight chc or chc pops in the fcst as is. The overall humid air mass will continue so low clouds and fog will be across the area overnight. Few changes were needed to temps/dew points or winds.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/. Monday will start the day mostly cloudy with a continuing chance for some showers as the aformentioned upper level disturbance will still be moving through. Any showers should mostly come to an end by the afternoon from south to north as the wave moves out. Otherwise, it will be similar to today in that mostly cloudy skies in the morning should give way to at least some sun in the afternoon. With the overall southerly flow in place, it will be another fairly warm and muggy day with highs mainly in the 70s to around 80. It will be coolest right near the coast as well as over the southern Poconos where it may only be in the low to mid 70s and warmest over interior Delmarva as well as the urban corridor.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Headlines . Areas of heavy rain possible Tuesday night through early Thursday.

Overview . The focus of the long term is a slow moving cold front expected between Tuesday night into early Thursday. There will be multiple areas of low pressure riding north along the front. During this period, heavy rain is possible. Another cold front will move through late Thursday into Friday. Cooler air will filter in behind these fronts.

Monday night . The region will be between shortwaves as the trough deepens to our west. Can't rule out isolated or scattered showers.

Tuesday into Early Thursday . A cold front will approach the region through this period. The front will initially be associated with a surface low centered over Ontario/Quebec. However, another low is expected to develop along the front over the southeastern U.S. in response to a digging mid level trough. This should lead to the front slowing, and possibly even stalling over (or just west of) our region.

Late Thursday into Friday . A secondary cold front could arrive Thursday night into Friday morning. However, dry air advection will limit precipitation chances.

Saturday and Sunday . With the mid-level trough axis nearing the region, a couple short-waves embedded in the flow could trigger isolated showers at worst.

Hazards: The longer the front stalls or at least slows, the longer our region will be in southerly return flow (resulting in low level moisture advection). Precipitable water values of 1.5 to 2 inches will be possible somewhere over the forecast area late Tuesday into early Thursday. The 90th percentile of pwat at IAD for late September is about 1.5 inches. Along with the southerly flow and training convection, the warm cloud layer will likely be very deep for late September as well.

Both WPC and MARFC have areas of 1 to 4 inches by Wednesday morning. New 12z guidance suggests this may be a bit fast as the southern mid- level energy digs very deep into to the south.

Heavy rain will be mentioned in the HWO.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Conditions deteriorating to predominate MVFR and then IFR by 03/05z time frame. Low cigs due to stratus will be the main issue but some vsby restrictions at times too. Winds mainly southeast/south around 5 knots or less. Moderate confidence overall but low confidence on the exact timing of category changes.

Monday . Conditions improving through the morning with mainly VFR expected by afternoon. Winds mainly southerly at 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence overall but low confidence on the exact timing of category changes.

Outlook .

Monday Night . Prevailing VFR conditions are expected, though brief reductions to MVFR conditions are possible with small chances of rain showers. Southerly winds of 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday and Wednesday . A cold front will approach the area from the west Tuesday with southerly winds around 10 kts. Prevailing MVFR ceilings are likely with transient IFR conditions in periods of heavy rain. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms embedded in the larger area of showers. Moderate confidence with the overall pattern, but low confidence with the details at this time.

Thursday . Lingering showers, especially in the morning could result in MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected with southwest winds around 10 kts and gusts up to 15 kts. Moderate confidence.

Friday . Mainly VFR. West winds 5 to 10 kts. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Winds and seas are expected to stay below Small Craft advisory criteria through Monday however winds may gust up to 20 knots Monday afternoon with seas increasing to around 4 feet.

Outlook .

Monday night . Winds and seas will approach SCA criteria.

Tuesday and Wednesday . Seas and southwesterly winds will increase ahead of a cold front. SCA conditions, especially for seas are possible.

Thursday and Friday . Decreasing winds and seas will fall below SCA criteria.

Rip Currents .

There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents both Monday and Tuesday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Kruzdlo Near Term . Fitzsimmons/PO Short Term . Fitzsimmons Long Term . Kruzdlo Aviation . Fitzsimmons/Kruzdlo/PO Marine . Fitzsimmons/Kruzdlo/MPS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 21 mi37 min 70°F5 ft
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 26 mi63 min S 1.9 71°F 1014 hPa70°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 36 mi45 min 69°F 69°F1014 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi51 min W 1 G 1.9 70°F 67°F1013.3 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 42 mi57 min E 1 G 1.9 70°F 68°F1012.5 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 44 mi23 min SSE 18 G 21 69°F1011.7 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 45 mi45 min E 5.1 G 6 69°F 1013 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ10 mi37 minSSW 31.00 miFog/Mist70°F69°F97%1013.4 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi93 minSSE 31.25 miFog/Mist0°F0°F%1012.2 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi37 minSSW 33.00 miFog/Mist70°F0°F%1013 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMJX

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE4CalmSE5E7E7E5E4NE4E6NE3CalmCalmS3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmNE4E4E6E6E8E7SE76CalmNE6SE104SE5CalmCalmCalmNE3Calm
2 days agoCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW5S5SW53SW5S5S5S4S5S4CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Stouts Creek, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Stouts Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:41 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:28 AM EDT     0.28 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:54 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:46 PM EDT     0.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.10.1000.10.10.20.20.30.30.20.20.10.1000.10.10.20.30.30.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:05 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT     1.61 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:11 PM EDT     -2.19 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:57 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:38 PM EDT     2.12 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:17 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.5-2.1-1.3-0.111.61.51.20.5-0.2-0.9-1.7-2.2-1.9-1.101.222.11.710.2-0.6-1.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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