Sunday, April18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Forked River, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 7:39PM Sunday April 18, 2021 4:01 PM EDT (20:01 UTC) Moonrise 10:17AMMoonset 1:04AM Illumination 43% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 344 Pm Edt Sun Apr 18 2021
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of showers in the afternoon. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of showers early in the evening. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tue night..S winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers with tstms likely in the afternoon.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers with tstms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 344 Pm Edt Sun Apr 18 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A surface low will develop in the southeast tonight, lifting east-northeast off the carolina coast on Monday. A weak cold front will move through the northeast Monday night. A strong surface low developing in the middle mississippi valley on Tuesday will lift northeast to the northeast on Wednesday. A strong cold front will sweep off the eastern seaboard by Wednesday night. High pressure will build into the eastern and southern u.s. To close the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forked River, NJ
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location: 39.83, -74.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 181418 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1018 AM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021

SYNOPSIS. A surface low will develop in the Southeast tonight, lifting east-northeast off the Carolina coast on Monday. A weak cold front will move through the Northeast Monday night. A strong surface low developing in the middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday will lift northeast to the Northeast on Wednesday. A strong cold front will sweep off the Eastern Seaboard by Wednesday night. High pressure will build into the eastern and southern U.S. to close the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Forecast is mostly on track, so will only make minor adjustments based on latest surface obs and trends.

Otherwise, with the central/southern vort max set to move off the coast this morning, any remaining sprinkles will join its departure eastward. However, another weak perturbation will approach the region this afternoon, with morning diurnal heating likely to lead to another round of instability stratocumulus by late morning into the afternoon. Again, the thermodynamic profiles are generally moisture-starved, so not expecting any measurable precipitation with this next vort max. However, as seen yesterday, at least some sprinkles may be observed, especially in the Poconos. Have included a slight chance of showers in this region this afternoon, but suspect that measurable precipitation is unlikely (sprinkles being the more likely outcome).

Guidance is warmer today owing to the relinquishing effects of the upper low departing New England. However, clouds may keep the warming in check to some degree, so kept forecast highs close to consensus (which is right around seasonal for our CWA). Winds will be fairly light as well, so not too bad of a day overall.

The next perturbation (the central Plains vort max this morning) will progress quickly eastward tonight, aided by a digging shortwave trough approaching the Upper Midwest. The vort max will shear apart in the confluent flow over the East Coast, but it will also pivot given the orientation of the kicker Midwest system. By daybreak Monday, it should be moving through the central Appalachians as it begins to acquire an increasingly neutral tilt. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to occur in the Southeast, aided by the right-entrance region of the departing upper-level jet streak. Precipitation will begin to develop in the central Appalachians, and this may influence our weather on Monday. However, conditions should remain mostly dry overnight across the CWA. Have only included slight chances of showers late in the far southern/southwestern forecast area given the increasing proximity to the large-scale lift with the approaching system. With considerable cloudiness overnight and being downstream of the next shortwave trough, suspect low temperatures will be slightly warmer than those seen this morning.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. The main concern early this week is the system moving through the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday.

As the vort max moving through the Appalachians Monday morning continues to acquire a more-neutral tilt, the surface low in the Southeast should intensify as it lifts northeast off the Carolina coast. The upper flow to the north is unfavorable for the low to lift more northward than eastward, so it should quickly migrate eastward off the coast. However, the strongest midlevel lift will be farther north, just east of the vort max moving through the central/southern Mid-Atlantic. Widespread precipitation should develop to our south and west Monday morning, with perhaps our southern Delmarva counties getting in on some of this action during the day. Lift will be improving farther north as well, with cold temperatures aloft allowing for some marginal instability to develop. Could see some showers develop across the area by afternoon, with profiles even suggesting potential for isolated storms. Have added mention of thunder to the forecast during the afternoon. So far, it appears more meaningful QPF will be to the south of the CWA, but deterministic models tend to be volatile with these setups, so not out of the question PoPs are increased markedly in the area (especially the south) on Monday. With some warm/moist advection in advance of the system, highs will probably end up a bit warmer than seasonal averages.

The vort max will move quickly offshore Monday night, with rapid drying setting in. Flow on the upstream side of the storm will become southwesterly, so this will result in a stout warming trend for Tuesday. Expect highs about 7-12 degrees above seasonal averages, with south to southwest surface winds beginning to increase, enhancing low-level mixing. Skies will probably be the most optimistic we have seen in several days, and given the warming trend, this day may end up being quite nice.

On Tuesday night, the next system will be rapidly intensifying across the central U.S. A northern-stream vort max will have dug well into the central Plains on Tuesday, with considerable downstream ridge amplification owing in part to the departing Monday system. Cyclogenesis will occur in vicinity of the middle Mississippi Valley by Tuesday afternoon, and the low will intensify rapidly as it lifts northeastward via the pivoting shortwave trough. Warm-advection precipitation should develop to the northeast of the low, perhaps making it to our western CWA Tuesday night. The more important result will be rapidly strengthening warm/moist advection in the breezy southwest low- level flow that is induced downstream of the low. Lows on Tuesday night will be much warmer, likely in the 50s for much of the area. This will set the stage for an active Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The medium-range period will be busy, with a strong system affecting the region Wednesday, and much colder and breezy-to- windy conditions Thursday and Friday.

An intensifying surface low will be lifting rapidly northeast through the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Wednesday, as the accompanying shortwave trough begins to acquire a slightly negative tilt. Strongly difluent flow downstream with considerable warm/moist advection in the low levels will set the stage for widespread precipitation (convection) across the Northeast. The pattern is synoptically favorable for some vigorous storms, assuming frontal timing is not too fast (a la the GFS). Still, at least marginal instability is expected in the prefrontal warm sector within deep-layer bulk shear of 40+ kt. With strong winds aloft (40-45 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) and a well-mixed boundary layer, cannot rule out some strong wind gusts with storms that develop, especially if a convective line organizes. Will need to keep an eye on Wednesday for severe potential.

As alluded to above, the front will sweep quickly across the area and should be through by Wednesday night. Very strong cold advection will be occurring on the upstream side, and if precipitation lingers in the Poconos, could see some snow showers before precipitation ceases. Meanwhile, temperatures and dew points will tank during the night, and winds will be increasing sharply on Thursday. Highs on Thursday will likely be about 15 degrees colder, with winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph. This is likely an underestimate based on pattern recognition. Using statistical guidance as a guide, certainly see a possibility of the need for wind products in the wake of the system.

Another concern will be lows Thursday night, which may approach freezing in northern/northwestern parts of the area. This will be in time for frost/freeze products for the Lehigh Valley and northern New Jersey, so will be monitoring this potential. However, winds and dew points will likely be unfavorable for frost, so this looks like a freeze/no freeze forecast at this point.

Yet another concern will be the potential for northwest-flow showers on Thursday as the cold upper low moves through the Northeast. Models typically underplay this threat, and temperatures will likely be cold enough in the southern Poconos for snow showers to be in play if this materializes. For now, have PoPs confined to the highest elevations of Carbon/Monroe Counties on Thursday, but my suspicion is that we will need to expand these southeastward in later forecasts.

Friday will continue to be breezy, but temperatures will warm as the upper low moves away from the Northeast. By the weekend, deterministic models begin to diverge, but most are showing another system moving through the region at some point. The 00z ECMWF would suggest a significant storm, but the GFS/CMC are not nearly as aggressive. PoPs are warranted for Saturday, with plenty of time to monitor model trends.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Mainly VFR with another round of BKN-OVC conditions with cloud bases generally 3500-8000 feet. If CIGs develop early enough, a brief period of MVFR is possible at ABE and perhaps RDG/TTN. West to northwest winds up to 10 kt.

Tonight . VFR with winds becoming light and variable. High confidence.

Outlook .

Monday . Mainly VFR, though some showers and even a rogue storm are possible, with perhaps some brief restrictions in their proximity. Mainly southwest winds up to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Monday night and Tuesday . VFR with light southwest winds Monday night increasing to 7 to 15 kt on Tuesday (with perhaps some higher gusts). High confidence.

Tuesday night . Restrictions possible with a chance of showers (with the precipitation mainly to the west/north of PHL). South winds up to 10 kt. Low confidence.

Wednesday . Showers and storms appear likely with restrictions expected at times. Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with higher gusts. Winds may be stronger and erratic in proximity to storms. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night . Restrictions ending quickly. Winds becoming west to northwest 10 to 20 kt with higher gusts. Moderate confidence.

Thursday . Mainly VFR with northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts 30+ kt likely. High confidence.

MARINE. Sub-advisory conditions are expected through tonight. West to northwest winds early this morning will become south or southwest by afternoon, continuing through tonight. Seas generally at or below 3 feet.

Outlook .

Monday through Tuesday night . Sub-advisory conditions expected. A chance of showers on Monday.

Wednesday . Advisory conditions possible. A good chance of showers and storms, with erratic winds/waves in their proximity.

Wednesday night and Thursday . Advisory conditions likely, with northwest gales possible on Thursday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . CMS Near Term . CMS/MPS Short Term . CMS Long Term . CMS Aviation . CMS Marine . CMS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 21 mi36 min 49°F2 ft
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 26 mi32 min SW 2.9 63°F 1011 hPa38°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 36 mi44 min 53°F 52°F1011 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi44 min NNW 4.1 G 6 63°F 53°F1010 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 42 mi86 min W 6 G 12 61°F 54°F1009.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 44 mi22 min S 12 G 14 48°F1009.2 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 45 mi44 min S 12 G 15 54°F 1010.1 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ10 mi66 minW 10 G 1710.00 miOvercast63°F38°F40%1010.5 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi62 minW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F38°F24%1009.3 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi66 minVar 610.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F42°F52%1010.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMJX

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N3CalmCalmN3CalmSW3CalmW3W3NW4NW3CalmW4W3CalmW5NW7NW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Stouts Creek, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Stouts Creek
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Sun -- 01:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:24 AM EDT     0.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:23 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:24 PM EDT     0.23 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:07 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.30.30.30.30.20.20.10.10.10.10.10.10.20.20.20.20.20.20.10.10.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:35 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:08 AM EDT     -1.87 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 09:59 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:26 PM EDT     1.31 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:03 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:04 PM EDT     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:31 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.40.5-0.3-1-1.5-1.7-1.9-1.7-100.81.31.20.70-0.6-1-1.3-1.3-1.2-0.50.51.4

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