Tuesday, January26, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Gate, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:10PM Tuesday January 26, 2021 10:59 PM EST (03:59 UTC) Moonrise 3:59PMMoonset 6:39AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1004 Pm Est Tue Jan 26 2021
Overnight..N winds around 10 kt, becoming nw with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of rain late this evening and early morning. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds, becoming mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the N with a dominant period of 5 seconds, becoming mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 5 seconds in the afternoon.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain until early morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the late evening and overnight. SWell mainly from the N with a dominant period of 4 seconds.
Thu..N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 25 to 30 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the N with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Light freezing spray likely.
Fri..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Light freezing spray likely.
Fri night..NW winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to around 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Light freezing spray likely.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of light freezing spray in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of snow or rain in the afternoon.
Sun night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 6 to 7 ft after midnight. A chance of rain or snow.
ANZ400 1004 Pm Est Tue Jan 26 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Weakening low pressure will move eastward off the coast into tonight. Low pressure develops near the carolinas later Wednesday and rapidly intensifies as it tracks out to sea through Thursday. High pressure builds into our region Friday night and Saturday before a storm system is forecast to arrive later Sunday and Monday, possibly lingering into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Gate , NJ
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location: 39.87, -74.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 262345 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 645 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. Weakening low pressure will move eastward off the coast into tonight. Low pressure develops near the Carolinas later Wednesday and rapidly intensifies as it tracks out to sea through Thursday. High pressure builds into our region Friday night and Saturday before a storm system is forecast to arrive later Sunday and Monday, possibly lingering into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/.

Wintry precipitation is mostly moving out of the area, although some light freezing drizzle remains across the northwestern third of so of the forecast area. Given that anything measurable should be limited to this zone, went ahead and lowered PoPs a bit quicker from SW-NE, and canceled the Chester-Berks-Upper Montco segment of the advisory. Only other change was adding mention of fog overnight in areas where precip was not mentioned. Suspect that given continued winds fog won't be overly dense, but visibilities in the 1-3 mile range will likely be common.

Temperatures will largely remain steady in the 30s overnight (with some upper 20s up north) along with mostly cloudy skies. Precip type will be a bit tricky overnight up north since the mid-levels have dried out, but expecting a (very) light wintry mix of mainly snow and freezing drizzle where temperatures remain at or below freezing along and north of I-78. An additional tenth of an inch of ice is possible with additional snow/sleet amounts less than one inch. Elsewhere, lingering drizzle will diminish overnight from south to north.

Along and north of I-78, temperatures should remain at or below freezing all night, so the Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for these areas until 4 AM, although this may be canceled early or extended based on precipitation evolution overnight.

For Wednesday, considerable cloudiness will prevail much of the day in the form of strato-cumulus. Winds will become northwesterly around 10 mph and prevail through much of the day. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 30s north/west of I-95 and into the low to mid 40s south/east of I-95, although it will feel quite chilly with the northwesterly breeze and mostly cloudy skies. Nevertheless, it'll be a dry day and likely the warmest through at least early next week.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Main forecast concern for this period will be the fringe effects of a developing ocean storm in the western Atlantic Thursday and Friday.

A strong vort max will move through the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys Wednesday night before exiting the Carolina coast Thursday morning. A developing surface low will exit the coast somewhere near or south of Cape Hatteras during this period, with a broad precipitation shield on the northwest side via intense low-level warm advection and differential cyclonic vorticity advection processes wrapping northwestward of the developing low-level circulation. However, dry northerly flow to the north of this low will keep most precipitation to the south of the CWA. Some models are hinting at light QPF in far southern Delaware and even portions of the Atlantic coast, but given the continued southward trend of the surface low, think precipitation is unlikely for our area now. Retained some mention of slight- chance PoPs in the aforementioned area, but the most likely outcome is a completely dry one for our CWA.

This means the main issue for our area will be winds and the incoming cold air. Model soundings indicate mixing to 900 mb Thursday afternoon and potentially to 850 mb Thursday night and Friday. With winds of 35 to 50 kt in this layer, suspect wind gusts of 30-40+ mph will readily reach the surface during this period (particularly during the daytime hours). May even need a wind advisory near the coast (to be determined). Would like to see somewhat more efficient mixing (i.e., a nearly dry adiabatic boundary layer) in the soundings before upping the winds to advisory thresholds.

As a 1040-mb surface high moves into Ontario and the Great Lakes region Thursday night and Friday, colder and colder air will advect into the region. Nevertheless, strong winds will prevent efficient radiational cooling at night, so kept lows Thursday night close to statistical consensus (single digits in the Poconos to 18-23 degrees in the urban corridor southeastward). However, wind chills will be the coldest of the season: near 10 below zero in the Poconos to the single digits in areas southeast of the Fall Line. With strong winds and continued cold advection on Friday, not much recovery should be expected in the wind chill department. Expect highs virtually everywhere to be below freezing on Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Cold High Pressure centered over SE Canada will be draped across the Mid-Atlantic to start the extended period. This high will be fairly robust (1035+mb) due to a good mid-lvl confluence configuration created by an upstream mid-lvl ridge in south- central Canada and a downstream mid-lvl low moving out over the North Atlantic. Expect another cold day over our area Saturday, with highs likely struggling to reach freezing. However winds may relax a bit relative to Friday as the sfc.low over the Atlantic pulls further out to sea and the gradient between it and the Canadian High decreases.

The High will slowly lift NE on Sunday as low pressure moves into the Ohio valley, and this system should follow the typical evolution with the interior low occluding and a secondary low beginning to take shape along the coastal front to our south late Sunday into Monday. At this stage, guidance essentially proposes two solutions in terms of the evolution of this system:

1.) A fairly progressive system in which the primary low reaches the Great Lakes before the "energy transfer" with the coastal system occurs (the coastal low doesn't really get going until it is near our latitude in that scenario). This results in warm-advection driven wintry precipitation at onset which then changes to rain/mix for at least part of our area later in the event. With this solution most of the precipitation would occur late Sunday, with lighter precipitation persisting into Monday- Tuesday as the mid-lvl wave passes.

2.) A slower solution in which the energy transfer takes place upstream of our area, and the coastal low becomes dominant south of the area. The mid-lvl wave then further amplifies and closes off near the east coast on Monday, which then results in the surface low tracking slowly N-NE Monday into Tuesday. This solution could result in a fairly long duration precipitation event for portions of the Mid-Atlantic (at present most favored just south of us), and has a more potential from a winter weather standpoint given the longer duration, and more favorable thermal profiles with the low remaining to our south. While this scenario has the biggest "hit" potential, it also has some "miss" potential, as it is possible the the low doesn't close off until the system is over the Atlantic which would track the system east of the area, resulting in our area only being on the fringe of any precipitation.

Given the general trends/biases in guidance in the blocking regime that has prevailed the last couple months, tend to give a bit more weight to the slower/more amplified solution, so slowed down PoPS a bit. Also, despite the tendency for suppressed systems missing us to the south in this regime, this system will likely be amplifying near our region with diving northern-stream energy helping to reinforce it. Consequently made the decision to bump PoPs slightly to the likely range at least for the southern half of the area on Monday, but capped at 60 given the "miss" scenario described above.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . IFR conditions in patchy light rain and drizzle. Some light freezing rain and freezing drizzle are expected around KABE at least into this evening before temperatures may nudge just above freezing for a time overnight. Variable wind less than 10 knots, becoming west. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . Mainly cloudy with cigs improving to MVFR through the early part of the morning and then to low end VFR in the afternoon. NW winds around 10 knots with gusts 15-20kts late morning into the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Thursday and Friday . VFR. Northwesterly winds 15-25 knots with gusts 30-35 knots. The winds should diminish some each night, especially Friday night. Moderate confidence.

Saturday . VFR. Northwest winds 10-15 knots. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . Chance of snow and/or rain with potential sub-VFR conditions developing either during the day or Sunday night. E/NE winds 5 to 10 knots. Low confidence.

MARINE.

Issued an SCA for the Delaware Bay, DE ocean waters, and NJ ocean waters south of Great Egg Inlet for this morning (6AM- 1PM). There will be the potential for 25-30kt NWrly gusts this morning, and then gusts should come down below criteria in the afternoon. Visibility will remain low (1-3 miles) through much of the overnight period in areas of mist/drizzle. Seas will run 2-4 feet.

Outlook .

Wednesday night . North to northwest winds rapidly increase to advisory levels and may approach gales by daybreak Thursday.

Thursday through Friday . Northwest gales through at least Friday morning before slowly diminishing to advisory criteria by Friday evening. Peak seas of 5 to 8 feet Thursday and Thursday night. Freezing spray seems likely both Thursday night and Friday.

Saturday . SCA conditions abating during the day on Saturday, with Freezing spray possible early, until winds relax.

Sunday . Sub-SCA conditions expected for most of the day, however conditions may begin to ramp up to SCA criteria by Sunday evening into Sunday night.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ054- 055-061-062-105. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for NJZ001- 007>010. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ430-431-452>455.

Synopsis . Fitzsimmons Near Term . Carr/Staarmann Short Term . CMS Long Term . Carr Aviation . Fitzsimmons Marine . CMS/Carr/Staarmann


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 22 mi483 min 45°F5 ft
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 28 mi509 min NE 11 40°F 1012 hPa40°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 36 mi479 min E 7 G 11 34°F 35°F1011.5 hPa (-2.4)
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 38 mi479 min 41°F 40°F1010.7 hPa (-2.9)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 40 mi503 min NE 4.1 G 8 34°F 36°F1011.1 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 42 mi459 min E 19 G 23 43°F1011.2 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 42 mi479 min E 14 G 19 37°F 1012.6 hPa (-2.8)
BDSP1 49 mi479 min 35°F 41°F1010.4 hPa (-2.6)

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ8 mi63 minN 32.50 miFog/Mist40°F39°F97%1011.4 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ14 mi1.9 hrsVar 310.00 miLight Rain39°F39°F100%1010.7 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ21 mi63 minNW 102.50 miUnknown Precip Fog/Mist36°F36°F100%1012.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMJX

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--CalmCalmN3N4N4NE3NE3NE8NE8E5E7E86E9
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1 day agoNW6NW6NW9NW8NW7NW5NW5NW6NW4NW4NW6NW5N6NW4W6W7W5NW5CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Creek, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Cedar Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:22 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:39 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:18 AM EST     0.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:17 PM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:51 PM EST     0.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.10000.10.20.30.30.40.40.30.30.20.10-000.10.20.20.30.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:59 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:53 AM EST     2.22 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:39 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:24 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:22 PM EST     -2.56 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:25 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:42 PM EST     1.55 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:47 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.7-1.101.11.92.21.81.10.3-0.5-1.3-2-2.5-2.4-1.6-0.50.61.41.51.20.6-0.1-0.9-1.5

Weather Map
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.