Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Conestoga, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 8:01PM Saturday August 17, 2019 9:35 AM EDT (13:35 UTC) Moonrise 8:26PMMoonset 7:05AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 736 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Today..SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A slight chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tue..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 736 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over the atlantic will control the weather pattern through Monday. A trough will build near the waters for Tuesday and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Conestoga, PA
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location: 39.88, -76.28     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 171325
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
925 am edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
Very warm and humid conditions will persist through this weekend
into early next week, and a trough of low pressure will keep
the mention of mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast.

Near term through tonight
Early morning meso-anal shows central pa in a pwat minima with
stable air, which makes sense given the extent of the fog and
low clouds that fill the valleys.

The hrrr and rap both generate a respectable amount of CAPE by
early afternoon with one axis of best instability over my nwrn
zones and another over the susq valley. The hrrr and href are
more robust developing convection over the NW associated with
low level convergence along a weak surface boundary, with the
eastern convection being more pulsey and disorganized.

Fairly decent mid level flow and associated 0-6km shear could
support a few rotating updrafts and possible isolated severe
weather across the northern half of the state this afternoon,
which is where SPC has a marginal risk of severe.

Hpc has placed our nern zones on a marginal risk for excessive
rain with pwats forecast to surge to between 1.5 and 1.7" over
the eastern zones this afternoon.

High temps this afternoon will range from 80f over the northern
mtns, to near 90 in the SE metro areas.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
Another shortwave is progged to track north of pa on Sunday.

Still, enough uvvel will form over fairly subtle boundaries and
a lake erie and atlantic ocean breeze penetrating inland to our
nw and SE zones to bring additional showers and scattered tsra
Sunday afternoon and evening.

Sunday's high temps will be a deg or 2 warmer than those of
today (Saturday).

Highs will range from around 80 along the ny border to around
90 along the mason-dixon line. The combination of heat and
humidity will drive heat indices into the mid 90s over the lower
susq valley for a few hours Saturday afternoon.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday and
Wednesday in advance of a cold front pushing southeast from the
great lakes. Would not be surprised to see at least a marginal
severe storm risk evolve in this window at shorter ranges.

The uptick in clouds and storms should trim back temperatures
from near-record levels, but readings will still be above
average for late august. MAX heat index values should also
trend lower tue-wed.

Pockets of locally heavy rainfall will be possible through
midweek although frontal progression should limit totals to some
extent. The risk for storms shifts to the south on Thursday as
push of cooler and drier air brings a refreshing end to the
week.

Aviation 13z Saturday through Wednesday
Expect low clouds and fog to dissipate through mid morning with
all sites trendingVFR by 15-16z. Another repeat pattern of
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop through
this afternoon and evening with focus across the northern and
eastern airspace. Isolated storms will dissipate tonight with
patchy fog and low cloud restrictions possible into Sunday
morning.

Outlook
Mon-wed... Rounds of showers thunderstorms possible, mainly in
the afternoon early evening hours. Late night and early morning
fog low clouds.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... La corte lambert
near term... La corte lambert
short term... Fitzgerald la corte lambert
long term... Steinbugl
aviation... La corte steinbugl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 35 mi54 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 77°F 82°F1016.1 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 42 mi60 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 79°F1016.1 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 44 mi54 min 76°F 82°F1015.5 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 45 mi54 min ENE 5.1 G 6 78°F 82°F1015.4 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 46 mi54 min 78°F 82°F1015.8 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 46 mi54 min E 5.1 G 6 75°F 82°F1016.1 hPa
FSNM2 47 mi60 min E 7 G 8 76°F 1015.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 48 mi48 min ESE 8 G 8.9 77°F 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA17 mi1.7 hrsN 04.00 miFog/Mist77°F73°F88%1015.8 hPa
Chester County Airport, PA23 mi81 minE 32.50 miFog/Mist73°F73°F100%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLNS

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE4SE5SE4SW3S4SE5S5N8E3E3CalmSE4E3E3E4CalmCalmE4E4E3CalmCalmE4
1 day agoE5SE3SE5SE4S6S7S8SE10SE10S7SE5SE5SE5S6S7CalmSE4E4SE6SE3E3E4SE6E3
2 days agoN8NE53NE5CalmNE5Calm3N5N10NE7NE6E4E3NW3CalmS3CalmN3CalmCalmE3E4SE4

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:27 AM EDT     2.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:16 AM EDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:44 PM EDT     3.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:26 PM EDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.72.52.21.81.41.211.11.52.22.83.33.43.22.92.521.61.21.11.11.52

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2)
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:48 AM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:51 AM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:58 PM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.11.81.41.10.90.911.41.92.42.72.82.72.421.61.210.911.31.82.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for State College, PA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.