Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Felton, PA

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 7:57PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 4:06 PM EDT (20:06 UTC) Moonrise 10:12PMMoonset 10:57AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 137 Pm Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt early in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered tstms with a chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 137 Pm Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure in the atlantic will promote a light southerly flow over the region today. A cold front will approach the waters late tonight into Thursday, before stalling near or south of the area into Friday. High pressure will then settle over the area Saturday into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Felton , PA
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location: 39.88, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 211909
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
309 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
A pair of cold fronts will push southeast through the state,
the first arriving late today and tonight, and the second later
on Thursday. Cooler and much less humid air will move in for
Friday and will last through much of the upcoming weekend.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Cu is reaching critical mass, with radar echoes starting to
appear in many locations, now. All is as expected so far. Spc
has mentioned the eastern part of the CWA in the mcd, and made
mention of 60pct chc of svr wx watch being issued. Will continue
to monitor storm development. Main mode of convection still
appears to be multi-cell clusters.

Expect some heavy rain, but the threat for any flooding would be
low outside of places which receive multiple storms. Pwats
remain AOA 1.5" over most of the area. The storms should die
down rather early this evening, perhaps dying totally by 10 pm.

Highest pops will be over the sc and sern sections.

Any clearing tonight will cause fog to form, ESP in places which
will be wet from rain and have little time to dry up before
dark. Expect low clouds to slide into the WRN highlands later
tonight, and perhaps get into the central mtns, too. But, will
make it cloudiest over the NW third for the time being.

Next wave nears by morning, and some very light precip is poss
in the NW few counties before sunrise. Mins are a tough call
when the cloud fog variables are thrown in. Will hold very
close to going fcst which differs little from most guidance with
l60s N W and 65-70f se.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
Cold front starts to drop across the area during the day, and
may allow the northern tier of counties to be dry after 10-11am.

Have painted high pops across the central and SRN counties where
the next wave will arrive a little early in the day to make that
much thunder N of fig-unv-ipt, but will likely result in some
stronger storms thurs aftn across the s. SPC dy2 update at 1 pm
has nudged the SRN half into the mrgl risk of svr wx for thurs.

Maxes in the u70s-l80s may be a little optimistic for the
central counties where clouds may prevail for much of the day,
but a fade from m80s SE to u60s NW is a good start.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
Trailing upper trough, the mdtly strong uvvel within the
thermally direct re region of an upper level jet MAX will be
riding over the secondary frontal boundary that will slow down
or stall out temporarily somewhere across central or southern
pa as the flow aloft backs Thursday into Friday.

Depending on the exact location of the quasi-stnry front and
area of enhanced lift beneath the re region of the upper jetlet,
there could even be a few periods of steady light, to briefly
moderate rain across central or northern pa and some elevated
tsra cores. Rainfall amounts later Thursday afternoon into
Friday should total a few to several tenths of an inch.

Conditions should improve from west to east late Friday, and
into the upcoming weekend.

An extensive area of high pressure will bring fair and dry
weather to central pa this weekend. Heading into next week, the
question will be how quickly can return flow moisture make it
back into the area? GFS is rather bullish early next week in
contrast to the ECMWF which favors continuation of dry wx. These
models seem to agree that developing southeast low level flow
may advect clouds into the area which could result in lower
highs mon-tue. Given the uncertainty, the day 4-8 ndfd forecast
closely follows the national blend of models (nbm) which shows
a gradual increase in low chance pops mon-tue.

Temperatures over the weekend will be near to slightly below
average with pleasant and warm afternoons and comfortably cool
nights. Another brief hint of autumnlike air with september
right around the corner. As mentioned above, could see temps
trend a bit lower early next week before moderating through
midweek.

Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday
Diurnal CU growing rapidly now as temps have risen nicely where
clearing occurred for a short time. Highest chc coverage of
showers will be over NW pa (bfd) and in the sc mtns (aoo) in the
next two hours. Then, the storms should form elsewhere and
slide to the east, giving unv, ipt, mdt and lns a high chc of
storms between 20 and 23z. Some storms may linger thru 01z in
vcty mdt and lns. Otherwise, the sky may initially clear out
everywhere. Then low clouds crud creeps in and or forms over the
nw half of the area. Bfd, jst will drop into ifr at least for
cigs if not for vsby as well. Maybe aoo unv ipt may dip to ifr
for a brief time in the morning. Another round of showers may
reach the western mtns before sunrise, but most showers will
wait until later in the morning and aftn thurs. The NRN mtns
will have the best flying wx on thurs, as a cold front drops
southward thru the area, and confines most storms to the S of
fig-unv-ipt. But, there is a high chc of MVFR CIGS vsby in jst
and aoo thurs. Mdt and lns still have a good chc of storms again
thurs aftn eve, and perhaps longer into the night. Drier air
arrives thurs night and improves flying weather greatly for the
weekend.

Outlook
Fri... Am fog poss. Chance of showers southern 1 4.

Sat-mon... Am fog possible.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Dangelo
near term... Dangelo
short term... Dangelo
long term... Gartner steinbugl
aviation... Dangelo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 42 mi54 min W 8 G 12 92°F 85°F1011.3 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi54 min W 4.1 G 7 89°F 85°F1012.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 46 mi48 min S 7 G 12 87°F 1011.8 hPa
FSNM2 46 mi78 min SW 7 G 13 90°F 1012.1 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi54 min S 6 G 19 87°F 84°F1012.6 hPa

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA21 mi73 minSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F71°F59%1012.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTHV

Wind History from THV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------E8----------------------NW4------Calm
1 day ago----------N8NW6--NW7N5NW4CalmCalmCalm----------CalmCalmCalm----
2 days ago----N3CalmS5S7S7----------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
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Wed -- 03:12 AM EDT     3.09 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:25 AM EDT     1.55 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:00 PM EDT     2.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:18 PM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.32.83.132.82.52.21.91.71.61.61.92.32.72.92.82.52.11.61.20.90.80.9

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2)
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Havre de Grace
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Wed -- 02:19 AM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:57 AM EDT     1.28 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:07 PM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:50 PM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.42.62.52.32.11.81.51.31.31.41.622.32.42.32.11.71.30.90.70.70.81.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for State College, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.