Sunday, September27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Felton, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 6:56PM Sunday September 27, 2020 2:32 AM EDT (06:32 UTC) Moonrise 4:21PMMoonset 1:32AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 137 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Overnight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Isolated showers. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Areas of fog.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 137 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak high pressure system will sit over the region through Monday. A pair of cold fronts are expected to move across the waters during the middle portion of next week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Sunday night through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Felton , PA
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location: 39.88, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 270544 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 144 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Upper level high pressure will keep mild conditions across the region through the early part of next week. A slow moving, strong cold front will arrive by the middle of the week accompanied by showers and scattered thunderstorms. Much cooler conditions are expected for the second half of next week as a deep upper level trough digs in over the Great Lakes.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. A well defined inverted llvl trough and nearly north/south band of mdtly stg theta-e convergence at the 925 mb level working on about 1.25 inch PWAT air was creating widespread llvl clouds (cloud bases AOB 1000 ft AGL) and drizzle near and to the east of the RT11/15 corridor.

Expect this setup to persist for much of the night as warm air advection at and above 8H will almost certainly trap the llvl mstr in below the big inversion. Hourly rainfall should be AOB 0.01 of an inch across our eastern zones.

Further to the west in Central PA, nighttime microphysics sat loop shows just some patchy stratus advecting NWWD and some cirrus fragments streaming SE. Look for the low clouds to develop/advect as far NW as the I-99 corridor after midnight, then possibly reaching the RT 219 corridor for several hours around daybreak.

Initial clearing this evening could also lead to areas of fog forming in place of the low clouds at KBFD.

The sky cover Sun AM may look almost exactly like Sat AM. The amount of clearing will determine the mins tonight, but the current dewpoints are the absolute lowest anyone should go. 55F to 60F is the best call for 90+ pct of the area. The urban areas in the SE should stay just above 60F.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/. Cloud cover on Sun should behave much like today (Sat), with the thicker low crud in the eastern 1/2 to 2/3rds of the area taking a while to break up. Warm air just aloft will be entrenched overhead. 8H temps will be around +15C. While some mdls do produce a little QPF, it is likely due to the possibility of drizzle vs. upright/convection. The daytime clouds should not be able to get much higher than 5-6kft as they bump their heads on the big inversion.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Next week will begin rather mild, as we see southerly flow on the backside of high pressure well off the Atlantic coast. Then the weather pattern will turn more active, as a trough of low pressure digs into the Great Lakes region by the middle of next week.

A cold front will approach the commonwealth by Tuesday, bringing showers and storms. Both the GFS/GEFS and the ECMWF develop a wave of low pressure along the front, which would slow down the progress of the front across the area.

There are some timing differences between the medium-range models as to the timing and intensity of low pressure along the front. Although this adds some uncertainty into the specifics for the midweek forecast, we are fairly confident in a stretch of unsettled weather around the middle of next week with the potential for some beneficial rainfall.

After that, the later part of next week looks cooler with temperatures trending below normal by next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Not a lot of change for the 06Z TAF set. Main change was to add a group late today after sunset. The other issue is fog is now starting to form at UNV and AOO.

See the earlier discussion below for more detail.

Mainly VFR persists this evening across the Central and Western Mtns while a marine layer with low stratus drizzle was noted over the Susq Valley and point east.

The lower cigs with periods of LIFR overnight at KLNS and KMDT will spread northwestward during the overnight hours with KUNV and KAOO returning to IFR around or by shortly after midnight.

KJST will likely dip into the MVFR category late tonight, while KBFR stays mainly VFR through early tonight. However, SKC-SCT skies at KBFD early on will likely lead to fog as a result of good radiational cooling and air temps below river temps in the north. Have mentioned LIFR at AOO/UNV/MDT/LNS overnight/early Sun AM.

The entire situation for today looks very similar to what we had on Saturday. The lowest clouds should break up and lift in the daytime heating, and any morning/early aftn breaks will likely fill right back in.

This whole scenario could repeat tonight and Monday night with little/no change in the overall setup.

Outlook .

Mon . Mainly VFR with brief restrictions poss.

Mon PM . CFROPA. Occasional cig/vis restrictions in SHRA.

Tue . Restrictions likely, with widespread SHRA.

Wed-Thurs . NW flow. MVFR and sct SHRA NW, MVFR stratocu elsewhere.

EQUIPMENT. KCCX continues to be offline due to an electronic issue. Parts are expected to arrive on Sunday.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Lambert/Dangelo NEAR TERM . Lambert/Dangelo SHORT TERM . Dangelo LONG TERM . Evanego/Gutierrez AVIATION . Lambert/Dangelo/Martin EQUIPMENT . Lambert


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 42 mi44 min ENE 2.9 G 2.9 68°F 74°F1014.3 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi44 min ESE 1 G 1.9 69°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 46 mi44 min NE 1.9 G 1.9 68°F 1014.6 hPa
FSNM2 46 mi44 min NNE 1 G 1.9 68°F 1014.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi44 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 68°F 70°F1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
York, York Airport, PA18 mi39 minN 02.50 miFog/Mist64°F62°F93%1015.3 hPa
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA21 mi39 minN 01.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist67°F64°F91%1015.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTHV

Wind History from THV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmE3N3NE4E4E5NE44N5N4NE5NW3N3N3N3CalmSE3E4SE3SE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6E4SW43SE6S8S33CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3S3S4CalmS4S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
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Sun -- 02:23 AM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:19 AM EDT     3.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:20 PM EDT     1.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:21 PM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.210.90.91.31.92.63.23.53.53.332.62.11.71.31.11.21.62.22.52.42.32

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2)
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:55 AM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:26 AM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:52 PM EDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:28 PM EDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.70.81.21.72.32.72.92.92.72.52.11.71.310.91.11.51.8221.91.61.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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