Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Felton, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:44PM Sunday December 15, 2019 3:42 PM EST (20:42 UTC) Moonrise 8:22PMMoonset 10:23AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1240 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm est this afternoon...
This afternoon..W winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft... Except around 1 ft or less near the mouth of the susquehanna.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 1240 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will briefly build overhead today before low pressure impacts the area Monday. The cold front associated with this low will pass through Tuesday. Small craft advisories likely will be required Tuesday into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Felton , PA
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location: 39.88, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 151942 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 242 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. The next weather system will move into southern portions of the area overnight and slowly spread north on Monday. This system will bring a mixed bag of winter precipitation with it until temperatures warm up above freezing later on Monday. Please use caution when travailing across southern Pennsylvania late tonight and Monday. An upper level trough will swing through the northeast US during the middle of the week, then high pressure will likely build in to end the week. Cold temperatures will begin to moderate by late in the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. LES showers winding down across NW this afternoon. Some brief clearing ahead of next weather system will allow for several hours of radiational cooling. This weather system will bring wintry precipitation across the southern zones late tonight and Monday morning. Elsewhere look for increasing clouds late.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Messy start to the southern zones with approaching low pressure system. After initially starting as snow, as has been the case most of the last month, mild air will quickly work its way in just aloft to change the phase of the precipitation to sleet and ultimately freezing rain and then rain. With the heating of the day and milder air working in, temperatures will rise above freezing and the wintry precipitation threat will end in the afternoon, leaving the bulk of the precipitation with this system as plain rain. Will cover this with a winter weather advisory for our southern zones. Further north, the storm system will bring light snow or flurries with it, but it will be working against fairly dry low layers and rates will be light throughout much of the event. Low level warming will also turn any snow into a light wintry mix with lower qpf totals as you move north.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Northern snow/southern rain should taper off Tuesday evening, as surface wave exits the Mid Atlantic coast. The 00Z NAEFS and ECENS both support a period of below average temperatures during mid week, as an anomalous upper trough swings through the northeast conus. The flow off of the Grt Lks briefly appears favorable for lake effect snow showers across northwest Pa Wednesday, then the arrival of surface high should result in a period of fair weather through the balance of the work week.

Model spread and forecast uncertainty ramp up toward next weekend. Much of the guidance has a digging trough approaching from the midwest, so anticipate moderating temperatures ahead of this feature and a possible need to introduce a chance of rain/snow showers by Saturday.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Snow showers across the nw continue to produce IFR conds at BFD and MFVR at KST and KAOO with slow improvement into the evening expected. VFR should continue elsewhere. Westerly winds will continue to be brisk, and strongest over the western half. Sustained speeds around 15 mph will be common, with gusts to 25-35 mph over the western higher terrain, closer to 25 mph gusts over the east. Winds subside this evening as just about everywhere remains VFR (the NW mountains may hold on to MVFR cigs).

Next next system slides in from the SW late tonight into Monday, spreading widespread restrictions back into the region, with MVFR-IFR ceilings and vsbys in snow. As warmer air changes precip through a wintry mix and then to plain rain over the southern half later Monday into Mon night, vsbys will improve but widespread ceiling restrictions will remain.

Outlook.

Mon . PM low cigs/wintry mix possible.

Tue . Low cigs NW, improving conditions elsewhere.

Wed . Restrictions likely north/west with snow showers.

Thu and Fri . No restrictions expected.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for PAZ033>036-063>066.

SYNOPSIS . Ross/Fitzgerald NEAR TERM . Ross/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM . Ross/Fitzgerald LONG TERM . Ross/Fitzgerald AVIATION . Gartner/RXR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 42 mi60 min NNW 7 G 13 51°F 47°F1014.7 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi60 min NW 13 G 18 48°F 42°F1014.8 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 46 mi54 min NW 15 G 17 49°F 1014.8 hPa
FSNM2 46 mi72 min WNW 19 G 24 49°F 1014.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi60 min WNW 14 G 17 48°F 44°F1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
York, York Airport, PA18 mi49 minWNW 15 G 2310.00 miA Few Clouds43°F24°F47%1015.7 hPa
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA21 mi49 minWNW 18 G 2710.00 miOvercast and Breezy42°F25°F51%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTHV

Wind History from THV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W7W3W6CalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmNW3W8CalmW4W6
2 days agoS4SE4SE6SE5SE5S4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E4NW3NW3CalmN3NE5NE3N4NE3NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:22 AM EST     2.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:41 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:20 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:34 PM EST     1.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:19 PM EST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.82.82.52.11.61.10.70.30.100.30.91.31.31.10.80.40-0.3-0.4-0.40.10.81.7

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2)
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:20 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:41 AM EST     1.12 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:51 PM EST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.11.71.30.90.50.200.10.40.81.11.10.90.60.3-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.20.20.81.52.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for State College, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.