Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Atglen, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:13PM Friday January 24, 2020 10:22 PM EST (03:22 UTC) Moonrise 7:19AMMoonset 5:02PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 938 Pm Est Fri Jan 24 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
Rest of tonight..E winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...except around 1 ft or less near the mouth of the susquehanna. A chance of rain late this evening, then rain with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain with patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 938 Pm Est Fri Jan 24 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A low pressure system will move across the waters on Saturday. Northwest flow ahead of weak high pressure will build behind this system. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday through Sunday and again on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atglen , PA
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location: 39.9, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 250241 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 941 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. A storm system will move across the Mid Atlantic and northeast states late tonight through Saturday night. This low will strengthen as it moves into the Canadian Maritimes early next week while high pressure builds to our north and west. This high will build across the east coast toward the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Current conditions are slightly warmer than previously forecast and with some solid cloud cover moving in, we may not radiate as well as preciously thought. Not a lot of confidence at this time to make any changes to progged forecast for tonight but if current trends hold, there is the possibility of less freezing rain at the onset, especially in the southern tier of the current advisories. Definitely something to keep an eye on as the we progress through tonight.

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a broad mid- latitude cyclone currently influencing weather across much of the eastern US. The system is centered across the Mississippi River Valley and is forecast to continue moving into the Ohio Valley then eventually toward the Mid- Atlantic by Saturday. At the surface, a 2 part low pressure system will be approaching the region from the south and west. The initial low across the Ohio Valley will weaken then the secondary low lifting north from the Gulf and across the Carolinas will become dominant and intensify as it moves north just inland from the coast toward the Mid- Atlantic. This low is forecast to briefly stall out across the region Saturday night then move slowly offshore on Sunday.

Precipitation is forecast to move in generally from southwest to northeast early Saturday morning. Can't rule out a brief period of sleet across the entire area at precip onset (timing dependent), but this will be a moderate to heavy rain event for most of the forecast area. North of I-78 and especially along the I-80 corridor including NW NJ and the southern Poconos, temperatures will be at or below freezing as rain (possibly mixed with sleet) moves into the region. Therefore, expecting a period of freezing rain to impact these areas through Saturday morning as temperatures slowly rise above freezing and precip switches to all rain by late morning into the early afternoon on Saturday. It now appears that most of the heaviest precipitation will move in after the transition to all rain occurs, therefore ice accretion amounts have been lowered. However, still expecting generally around 0.10" of ice with localized higher amounts in the typical areas that remain below freezing the longest (Mount Pocono, High Point, etc.) up to around 0.25" of ice accretion.

The surface low will be tracking directly over the area and warm air advection will be strong aloft and near the surface. PWats will also be anomalously high reaching up to 1.00+" across Delmarva and southern NJ. This combined with strong forcing for ascent and elevated instability in the 100-200 J/kg range will result in a band of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms (rumbles of thunder) with thunder more probable along and south/east of I-95. Expect most of the area to get around 1-1.5" of rain total with locally higher amounts of 2"+ where heavy rain persists longer due to training. With the antecedent dry conditions and unfrozen ground, not expecting any widespread flooding or flash flooding concerns, however if 1-2" of rain falls fast enough localized flooding is certainly possible. Precip will end abruptly from west to east through the afternoon on Saturday. Some lingering showers are possible in the wake of the main rain band, especially up north, but most of the area will be dry slotted into the late afternoon and evening.

Expect easterly winds of 15-20 mph ahead of the rain band switching westerly around 5-10 mph behind the rain band. Temperatures will warm into the 50s along and south/east of I-95 with 40s toward the north. Dewpoints will also warm into the 50s so it'll feel a bit muggy for January. Clouds will begin clearing by late afternoon into the evening.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. The low pressure system will be exiting the area on late Saturday night into Sunday. Skies will continue to clear across the south with some lingering stratus expected toward the north. Temps will drip into the low to mid 30s.

Some hi-res guidance indicates and area of snow showers will sweep across the southern Poconos and NW NJ Sunday morning. This could result in a brief dusting of snow. Otherwise, temps will warm into the mid to upper 40s with westerly winds around 15 mph.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Fairly quiet weather expected as low pressure continues to move away over Atlantic Canada while high pressure will gradually build down from the north and west with time. This will keep the region predominately in a dry W/NW flow through most of next week. Most days should feature a good deal of sunshine though some shortwaves riding through the upper level flow will bring some cloudier periods from time to time. Temperatures look to generally be near to a little above late January averages. Early indications are that the next storm system could impact the area next weekend but it's too early to forecast any specifics with this system.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon as high clouds fill over the region. MVFR CIGs will eventually move into the region through the evening and into the early overnight arriving between 05-08Z. Rain will work its way into the region overnight and start to move into the terminals after 08Z, with CIGs and VSBY restrictions dropping to IFR conditions by late tonight/early morning. Easterly winds from 5 to 10 knots this evening will increase to 10 to 15 knots after 08Z. High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in exact timing.

Saturday . IFR conditions with brief periods of improvement to MVFR conditions at times. Periods of moderate to even heavy rain at times through the morning and into the early with VSBY restrictions. A period of freezing rain is possible north of ABE and RDG through the morning. East to southeasterly winds from 10 to 15 knots will begin to turn westerly after 20Z from 10 to 15 knots. LLWS will develop out of the southeast by early morning with speeds around 40 to 50 knots at 2000ft. High confidence in forecast trend, moderate confidence in exact timing.

Outlook .

Saturday night . Conditions expected to improve to VFR during the evening and overnight. Winds westerly and may gust 15-20 knots at times. -Moderate confidence.

Sunday-Tuesday . Mainly VFR, though cigs could occasionally be MVFR at times due to stratus. Winds remain mainly west to northwest and may gust 15-20 knots at times through Tuesday. -Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . Mainly VFR with NW winds 5-10 knots.

MARINE. Seas are already exceeding 5 feet along the Atlantic coastal waters so have moved the SCA into effect as of now. Otherwise, expect winds to gradually increase on the ocean and Delaware Bay later tonight. Overnight, expect seas to continue building to 6-8 feet by daybreak. Winds will be onshore and sustained around 20-25 kts with some higher gusts possible overnight.

On Saturday, SCA conditions will remain area wide until after the passage of a band of moderate to heavy rain with some rumbles of thunder during the late morning and afternoon hours. Winds easterly around 20-25 kts. Seas 7-9 feet on oceans waters. For the northern-most areas of the ocean waters, a brief period of enhanced winds is forecast from the late morning through early afternoon hours. Winds may reach near gale force, but confidence on gales occurring is low given the setup so the Gale Watch was converted to a Small Craft Advisory.

Outlook .

Saturday night through Sunday . Offshore winds around 20 kts with some higher gusts possible. Waves 5-7 feet diminishing to around 5 feet Sunday.

Sunday night . Winds and waves are likely to remain above advisory levels into the evening before diminishing overnight.

Monday-Wednesday . Winds and waves should remain mainly below advisory levels through this period though winds could occasionally gust to near or just over 20 knots at times.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of a new moon today, along with an onshore flow is expected to lead to areas of coastal flooding with the high tide Saturday. Currently, advisory-level flooding is expected at most locations along the ocean front, back bays, and Delaware Bay. However, there could be a few pockets of moderate flooding, depending on the exact timing of the storm. Based on current model guidance, no problems are anticipated along the upper eastern shore of the Chesapeake Bay.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for PAZ061- 062. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for PAZ054-055. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for NJZ007- 008. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to noon EST Saturday for NJZ012>014-020>027. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for NJZ016. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for NJZ001. DE . Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to noon EST Saturday for DEZ002>004. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for DEZ001. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Saturday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Fitzsimmons Near Term . Meola/Staarmann Short Term . Staarmann Long Term . Fitzsimmons Aviation . Davis/Fitzsimmons/Meola Marine . Fitzsimmons/Meola/Staarmann Tides/Coastal Flooding .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 28 mi52 min E 8 G 13 45°F 39°F1021.9 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 31 mi52 min E 8.9 G 9.9 43°F 44°F1022.2 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 32 mi52 min 43°F 41°F1022.8 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 33 mi52 min 43°F 39°F1021.7 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 46 mi52 min 44°F 39°F1023.3 hPa
BDSP1 49 mi52 min 43°F 1024.2 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi52 min ESE 7 G 14 47°F 41°F1020.5 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester County Airport, PA9 mi47 minE 15 G 2110.00 miFair43°F37°F81%1022 hPa
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA22 mi29 minESE 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F37°F74%1021.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMQS

Wind History from MQS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6
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1 day agoCalmW3W3W3CalmW5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN3CalmNW4NW4NW4NW5NW5NW5W3CalmNW5NW5CalmCalmNW4CalmNW5NW4NW4CalmN3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:09 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:50 AM EST     1.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 04:54 PM EST     -0.85 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:03 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:56 PM EST     2.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.71.30.80.30-0.100.511.110.70.3-0.2-0.5-0.8-0.8-0.6-00.81.62.12.3

Tide / Current Tables for Charlestown, Northeast River, Maryland (2)
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Charlestown
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:09 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:28 AM EST     1.00 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:54 PM EST     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 05:02 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:34 PM EST     2.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.30.80.40-0.1-00.30.7110.70.4-0-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.6-0.20.51.21.722.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.