Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Windsor, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:43PM Monday December 9, 2019 2:38 AM EST (07:38 UTC) Moonrise 3:18PMMoonset 4:23AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1238 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late tonight...
Overnight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Rain likely.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain or drizzle likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain or snow likely.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day, then rain likely through the night.
ANZ500 1238 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will develop over the central united states and lift into the great lakes through Monday. A warm front developing east of this area of low pressure over the carolinas is expected to lift northward across the mid-atlantic during this time. The aforementioned low will drag its trailing cold front through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Monday night through Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Windsor , PA
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location: 39.9, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 090619 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 119 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. After a fair weather weekend, a more active and occasionally stormy pattern is expected during the second week of December. Temperatures are forecast to surge well-above normal today and Tuesday, followed by a sharply colder trend Wednesday into Thursday. The brief warm-up will be accompanied by periods of rain which may end as light snow late Tuesday night. A mid to late week drying trend will likely reverse by next weekend with another complex storm system on the horizon.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. Watching the temperatures across the southeast, as radar returns are now just to the south over NE Maryland. So far, temperatures holding up and dewpoints are coming up.

Not much on radar to the west, until gets well into the midwest.

Earlier discussion below.

Extensive, layered cloud cover was spread across the region this evening, and some lowering/thickening of the clouds will occur overnight in advance of a warm front. However, EFSs and High Res models indicate little if any rain for most of the CWA through around daybreak.

Steady light to ocnly moderate rain overspreads the region Monday morning and continues during the afternoon as the 08/18Z GEFS shows an axis of anomalously high 850 mb moisture flux (Nearly plus 4 sigma) moving northeast across Pennsylvania along with a 45 to 55kt mean 925 to 850 mb SSWrly wind max.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Evening shift has a band of snow of 1 to 2 inches in the fcst. While there could be a little more, temperatures are warm to start, then drier air could limit precipitation later on. Will continue to look over the situation.

Earlier discussion below.

Highest QPF shifts to mainly the western half where 36hr rain totals will be around an inch.

As the aforementioned LLVL wind max feature departs toward the New England states Monday night, rainfall intensity will decrease and lingering low clouds and some patchy light rain/drizzle will occur. Breezy and unseasonably mild temps are expected within the warm sector and min temps will be 4-6 deg F above normal High Temps for the date (between 40 and 50F from NW to SE).

Sfc Cold front pushes east across PA very late Monday night/Tuesday morning, before slowing as it reaches the Delmarva/VA coast.

A secondary and moderately tight 850-700 mb thermal gradient and FGEN forcing will occur across the SE 1/3 to 1/2 of the CWA, as the thermally direct R.E. region of a strong 180kt jet approaches from the Mid Ohio Valley and accentuates UVVEL Monday night and Tuesday morning.

Boundary layer temps slip to critical changeover levels for wet snow beginning in the early evening Tuesday across the Central Mtns and Mid Susq Valley, then across our SE zones around 03-05Z Wednesday. A second, post-frontal period of rain Tuesday afternoon/evening will likely change to a several to 6-8 hour period of light to moderate wet snow with 1-3 inches of accumulation looking increasingly likely SE of a KAOO to KSEG and KMPO line with the highest amounts occurring across the ridges just to the NW of the I-81/I-78 corridor where some travel impacts are possible for the morning commute to work and school Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Main change so far was to adjust lake effect snow showers a little. Rising height fields will limit response in our area.

Other issue the weather for next weekend. In some regards, models show a similar pattern to what we have today.

Earlier discussion below.

It will turn sharply colder midweek as arctic air blasts into the region. Temperatures will be on the decline over the NW Tuesday afternoon (non diurnal over the NW half) and drop quickly Tuesday night areawide. There will be some potential for residual water or slush to freeze up quickly by Wednesday. Highs are forecast to drop by 20-30 degrees between Tuesday and Thursday, with minimum wind chills in the single digits and teens Thursday morning.

Strong 1040+mb high pressure moves NE across the region Thu/Fri followed by another system which could bring rain or mixed precipitation Friday into Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Low pressure which will move over the Upper Great Lakes will draw deep moisture in from the south. Lowering cigs and rain are expected through the night and on Monday. Weak low moving up the coast is currently pushing some IFR clouds into the SE from the east. Latest model soundings and HREF and SREF probability charts support a fairly high confidence of IFR conditions developing between 12Z-15Z over most of the area. LNS and BFD are the most certain and will likely turn poor first. MDT may be just on the edge of the really low marine clouds, but best bet is to take them down to IFR just a little later than LNS. The one area of less certainty in IFR clouds is over the Laurel Highlands (JST and maybe AOO), where a southerly flow is usually unfavorable for low cigs. Strong southwest winds aloft, combined with much lighter surface winds, will set the stage for low level wind shear across much of central Pa late tonight and Monday. Just the very end of the period (03-06Z Tues) is the next possibility of some lifting of the low clouds and mainly dry for the SE, but the NW looks wet/IFR most of the next 30-36 hours. Cold front moves through NW to SE on Tuesday.

Outlook.

Tue . AM low cigs/shra, mainly N Mtns. Evening and overnight light snow possible southeast PA.

Wed . AM light snow possible southeast PA.

Thu . No sig wx expected.

Fri . Low cigs possible, especially late.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Lambert/Martin NEAR TERM . Lambert/Martin/RXR SHORT TERM . DeVoir/Lambert/Martin/RXR LONG TERM . DeVoir/Martin/Steinbugl AVIATION . Dangelo/Fitzgerald


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 44 mi57 min SE 1.9 G 4.1 43°F 46°F1023.9 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 46 mi57 min E 1.9 G 1.9 41°F 42°F1025.1 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 47 mi51 min ESE 7 G 7 42°F 1024.2 hPa

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
York, York Airport, PA18 mi46 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds35°F30°F85%1023.4 hPa
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA19 mi46 minENE 410.00 miOvercast38°F34°F86%1024.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTHV

Wind History from THV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalm5SE7S7S6
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1 day agoW3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmNW4N4NW5NW8N9
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:51 AM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:21 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:55 AM EST     1.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:10 PM EST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:59 PM EST     2.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.410.80.60.50.71.11.51.61.51.30.90.50.1-0.2-0.3-0.20.311.72.22.42.32.1

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2)
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:23 AM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:20 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:02 AM EST     1.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:42 PM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:06 PM EST     2.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60.40.40.711.31.41.310.70.30-0.2-0.2-00.40.91.51.921.91.71.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for State College, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.