Monday, January20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chambersburg, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 5:16PM Monday January 20, 2020 8:51 PM EST (01:51 UTC) Moonrise 3:36AMMoonset 1:41PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 847 Pm Est Mon Jan 20 2020
Tonight..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Wed night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Thu night..Light winds. Waves flat.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely through the night.
Sat..E winds 10 kt...becoming nw. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 847 Pm Est Mon Jan 20 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build eastward from the northern plains during the first half of the week, then move offshore during the second half of the week. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chambersburg , PA
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location: 39.93, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 210026 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 726 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Northwest flow aloft and a large area of surface high pressure building southeast from the Upper Mississippi Valley will bring a lengthy string of dry days this week. Temperatures will start out below normal before moderating back to normal on Wednesday, then above normal to close out the work week. A slow-moving area of low pressure will bring the potential for snow or mixed precipitation this weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. Temps dropping. Sky clear for all but the far SW and far NW. Still some wind to keep things mixed up. A weak sfc trough approaching from lower Ontario will create an increase in clouds over the NW third/half of the area tonight. There could be a few flurries, but opted to keep PoPs out of the forecast. The clouds may also bump the temps back up over the NW after an initial dip early tonight. Went below guidance for mins in the east where wind should continue to calm down. The usual cold spots in the valleys will get quite a bit colder than the cities and hill tops.

Prev . GOES-16 visible channel shows inversion heights have suppressed shallow stratus bands over the eastern third of Lake Erie, leaving downwind locations of the NW Mountains in full sunshine this afternoon. Only parts of the Laurel Highlands are still seeing any locally enhanced stratus from overlake flow tracing from Lakes Huron and Erie. Boundary layer flow maintains similar trajectory tonight while slackening as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley. A few clouds will likely drift back over the west and northwest tonight from time to time and over the Laurel Highlands, but the remainder of central PA is expected to remain mostly clear to clear. With decreasing wind and snow cover, tonight will be quite cold throughout with mins ranging from the single digits above zero over much of northern and central PA to 10 to 15 over the south.

SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Upper ridge and elongated surface high will build southeast on Tuesday continuing fair and cold conditions. Highs will be a few degrees higher on Tuesday, ranging from the mid to upper 20s north to the lower 30s southeast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. After our couple of cold days, temps should rise back to near average on Wed and continue to warm into Thurs and Fri.

Regarding the potential winter storm this weekend, the ECMWF and GFS solutions are more similar as of the Jan 20/12z guidance. Both show an upper level shortwave trough moving into the Pac NW on Tuesday and digging southeastward into the Great Plains/Mid Miss Valley Region by Friday morning. Both GFS and ECMWF now showing a weak sfc low along the Gulf coast by Friday night. As the upper trough moves across the Ohio valley Friday night and Saturday, the Gulf low rides up the East coast and deepens over the Delmarva, in class Miller B fashion. GEFS and ECMWF ens also support this evolution.

A mix of wintry precip should move in to the area late Friday night or early Saturday morning and last until late Saturday night. Still some unanswered questions regarding ptype. Lake effect snow showers will continue on the back side of the low through Sunday.

One of the important questions to iron out in the coming days is how cold the antecedent airmass is Fri-Fri night before the storm arrives. The ECMWF soln is still more amplified, and builds higher heights ahead of the approaching upper trough on Friday, signifying warmer temps aloft.

Another question is how quickly the coastal low takes over and deepens. Quicker development of the coastal low would imply low level winds backing from SE to NE, supplying cold air at low levels during the storm on Saturday. This would mean more wintry precip and less rain. Quicker development of the coastal low could also translate to better frontogenetical forcing/banding on the NW side of the developing low, which would translate to heavier precip and some dynamic cooling.

It will be a couple of days before we have these answers. As always, it will be interesting to see how the hi-res guidance handles these features as the event comes in range.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Widespread VFR through tonight. MVFR conditions resume after midnight Tuesday morning at BFD and JST as low cigs redevelop. IFR conditions will be possible starting early Friday morning at BFD with snow showers.

Outlook.

Tue . Mainly dry, but still a chance of snow showers across the northwest.

Wed-Thu . Mainly dry.

Fri-Sat . Snow/wintry mix Fri night and Saturday. Restrictions psbl.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . DeVoir/Lambert NEAR TERM . Dangelo/DeVoir SHORT TERM . DeVoir/Lambert LONG TERM . Lambert/Colbert AVIATION . DeVoir/Banghoff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 73 mi51 min 30°F 41°F1029.9 hPa (+1.3)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 78 mi51 min 30°F 1030.4 hPa (+1.6)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 81 mi51 min 32°F 42°F1030.7 hPa (+1.5)

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hagerstown, Washington County Regional Airport, MD16 mi59 minNW 710.00 miFair25°F9°F50%1032 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHGR

Wind History from HGR (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS13S9S6N8SE6CalmCalmW4W15
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2 days agoE3E4NE4E4E5CalmCalmCalmE3E6S10S12S13S15
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Tide / Current Tables for Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Maryland
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Middle Branch
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:34 AM EST     0.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:29 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:05 AM EST     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:38 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:52 PM EST     1.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:02 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.40.60.60.50.30-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.20.20.50.811.110.90.70.40.20-0

Tide / Current Tables for Fells Point, Baltimore Harbor, Maryland
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Fells Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:18 AM EST     0.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:29 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:53 AM EST     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:38 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:35 PM EST     1.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:50 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.60.70.70.50.2-0-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.10.30.71.11.31.31.210.70.50.20-0

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for State College, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.