Monday, September20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Merchantville, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 7:01PM Monday September 20, 2021 2:03 AM EDT (06:03 UTC) Moonrise 6:17PMMoonset 5:08AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 102 Am Edt Mon Sep 20 2021
Rest of tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Wed night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Thu..S winds around 10 kt. Waves around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. Showers likely.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 102 Am Edt Mon Sep 20 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will remain across the northeast tonight, then build offshore Monday and Monday night then remain near the canadian maritimes through Tuesday. A cold front is expected to be across the area Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure may briefly affect the area early next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Merchantville , NJ
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location: 39.98, -75.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 200433 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1233 AM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain across the Northeast tonight, then build offshore Monday and Monday night then remain near the Canadian Maritimes through Tuesday. A cold front is expected to be across the area Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure may briefly affect the area early next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. No significant changes to the forecast. With high pressure over the area, generally clear skies, light winds, and decent radational cooling conditions.

High pressure currently located over southeastern Quebec will slowly translate east towards Maine with low level flow veering from the north to northeast. This psuedo onshore flow will eventually become orthogonal to the coastline tonight allowing warm moist air to ooze inland. The main question for tonight remains how quickly will this occur. The flow will likely be on the weaker side with the PBL over land decoupling. A stronger inland flow would support widespread fog and stratus developing. Several things that would prevent the fog development is the extremely dry low level air that is currently in place. Generally speaking, the first night of return flow usually is not sufficient to produce widespread fog and stratus. NAM forecast soundings also support this solution. Low temperatures will also be highly dependent on the strength of the onshore flow with water temperatures in the 70 to 75 degree range. Mostly lower to mid 50s is expected.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. High pressure will be over the Gulf of Maine Monday with east/ southeast flow across the region. Not much warming will be in association though, with cool air continuing across the region. The biggest change will be the rise in dewpoints. Mid to upper 50 dewpoints appear likely Monday. High temperatures will again be in the mid to upper 70s. Dry weather will persist.

Monday afternoon, low level moisture profiles will finally start to respond to the onshore flow with stratus approaching the coastline. GFS and NAM forecast soundings both indicate rather robust cloud cover Tuesday afternoon into evening. This will make high temperatures for Tuesday rather difficult, with temperatures likely cooler Tuesday across the coastal zones thanks to the widespread stratus and accompanying onshore flow. On the other hand, low temperatures Wednesday will be much warmer, or in the low to mid 60s. Dry weather is again forecast for Tuesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A return of unsettled weather is expected for the middle of the week, followed by quiet weather for the end of the week.

Models have come into better agreement with regards to the mid- week frontal system. The unfortunate things is they are indicating a fairly slow progression of the front. All guidance, GFS, NAM, ECMWF, Canadian, and others, have an area of low pressure developing near the Ohio River Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday along a cold front as it moves eastward. As the mid-level closes off Wednesday and drifts northward through the end of the week, the surface low meanders northward across the Great Lakes as well, which will slow the frontal progression across the east coast. All guidance is now indicating the cold front moving across the east coast Thursday into Thursday night. We have continued to shift the highest POPs to be centered more on the Thursday time period, with some higher POPS overlapping in Wednesday night and Thursday night. There could be some showers through the day Wednesday as moisture increases and several short wave/vorticity impulses move across the area in the southwest flow aloft ahead of the main system. There may also be some lingering precipitation Friday depending on how fast the front moves offshore. There is some instability forecast from Wednesday through Thursday evening, so there will be the potential for at least isolated thunderstorms. There is some enhanced shear values due to elevated mid-level winds, so depending on the timing of the convective activity, some stronger storms could develop, more likely on Thursday. Precipitable water values also increase during this period to at least 1.50-1.75 inches, so periods of moderate to heavy rainfall could become a concern.

Behind the cold front, drier weather is expected to return to the area as high pressure briefly builds in for late Friday into Saturday Cooler air will also move in behind the cold front, and temperatures may actually fall close to or slightly below normal by the end of the week into next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Overall, a VFR forecast. Some low clouds (with potential MVFR ceilings) are possible after 06Z, primarily at KMIV and KACY. Winds will settle out of the east or northeast with speeds generally 5 kts or less. High confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on exactly where the potential for MVFR ceilings develop.

Monday . Starting off mainly VFR with scattered MVFR ceilings, primarily at KMIV and KACY . then VFR. Winds will veer east or southeast generally in the 5 to 10 kt range. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on exactly where the potential for MVFR ceilings develop.

Outlook .

Monday night . VFR initially, then sub-VFR in fog/stratus. E winds 5 kts or less. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday . After some morning sub-VFR conditions . becoming VFR. SE winds 5-10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night . VFR initially, then sub-VFR possible in fog/stratus. E winds 5 kts or less. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday through Wednesday night . Some morning sub-VFR in fog /stratus, then mainly VFR with scattered SHRAs possible in the afternoon. SHRAs becoming likely Wednesday night with sub-VFR conditions. SE winds 10-15 kts, with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Low confidence.

Thursday and Thursday night . SHRAs likely with sub-VFR conditions. TSRA possible in the afternoon/evening. SE winds 10-20 kts. Low confidence.

Friday . Mainly VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 15 kts. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Seas have been just around or below 5 feet at 44091 this afternoon with a slow downward trend observed. Therefore, have held back on issuing a Small Craft Advisory for now. Tomorrow, seas will be between 3 and 5 feet with winds between 15 and 20 kts. Surface high pressure currently over southeastern Quebec will slowly translate towards the Gulf of Maine by Monday afternoon with winds veering from the east. Sub SCA criteria expected through Tuesday.

Outlook .

Wednesday-Friday . Although winds may remain below advisory levels through the period, seas could increase to 5 feet or higher by Wednesday night and continue into Friday.

Rip currents . The CFW for High rip current risk has expired. Rough conditions were observed earlier today for Ocean and Monmouth counties. We have gone with a MODERATE risk for Monday attm. The swells will be about the same (or maybe slightly less) as today and the full moon is Monday evening. Both of these factors should contribute to some enhanced rips.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Spotty minor tidal flooding is possible centered around the highest astronomical tides through Monday. The combination of increased swells from Odette, higher astronomical tides with the full moon on Monday, and developing onshore flow will all contribute to this. The highest astronomical tides, and thus the higher risk for spotty minor flooding, will be the evening/overnight high tides. At this point, tidal levels just should fall just shy of advisory criteria. However, if the onshore flow develops faster than what is currently expected, there could be an increased risk for widespread minor flooding, especially with the evening/night high tide tonight.

Notably, forecasts have increased slightly for portions of the Atlantic coast in southern New Jersey and Delaware for the evening/night high tide tonight, and there is a chance an advisory may be required for these areas as well as adjacent portions of Delaware Bay during this time frame.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Robertson Near Term . Haines/MPS Short Term . Haines Long Term . Robertson Aviation . Kruzdlo Marine . Haines/Robertson Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BDSP1 0 mi45 min 65°F 72°F1024.5 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 5 mi45 min 65°F 72°F1024 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 13 mi87 min N 1 G 2.9 62°F 72°F1024 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 20 mi51 min E 1 G 1 62°F 71°F1024.8 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 21 mi51 min 64°F 74°F1024 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 39 mi51 min SE 1 G 1.9 66°F 1024.2 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 39 mi51 min 62°F 76°F1023.7 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 45 mi33 min Calm 63°F 1025 hPa61°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 49 mi51 min E 4.1 G 7 69°F 76°F1024.7 hPa

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA8 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair59°F55°F87%1024.7 hPa
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA11 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair63°F56°F78%1024.3 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ13 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair56°F54°F93%1024.2 hPa
Doylestown, Doylestown Airport, PA24 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair57°F52°F83%1024.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPNE

Wind History from PNE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N5N5N8N10NW3N6N8N14N13
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2 days agoNE8E6NE6NE7NE8NE8NE10E9E10NE8NE8NE11NE8NE9NE7NE9NE6NE8NE6NE5NE5NE5N5N6

Tide / Current Tables for Bridesburg, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
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Bridesburg
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Mon -- 01:48 AM EDT     7.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:03 AM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:17 PM EDT     6.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 09:17 PM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.87.17.56.85.9542.91.50.71.42.94.566.96.75.84.943.11.90.91.32.9

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
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Mon -- 01:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:54 AM EDT     -1.81 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:09 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:14 PM EDT     1.58 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:17 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:15 PM EDT     -1.89 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 09:18 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:28 PM EDT     1.56 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.9-0.3-1.3-1.7-1.8-1.7-1.7-1.3-0.211.41.61.40.4-0.9-1.6-1.9-1.8-1.6-1.3-0.40.91.5

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