Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Beach, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:26PM Saturday December 7, 2019 6:04 AM EST (11:04 UTC) Moonrise 3:07PMMoonset 3:07AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ373 104 Pm Est Mon Dec 2 2019
.a strong Thunderstorm over the waters... The areas affected include... The open waters 20 to 40 nm southeast of sandy hook nj to south of fire island inlet ny... The open waters 20 to 40 nm south of fire island inlet to moriches inlet ny... At 1259 pm est, doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. The area of Thunderstorms was located 31 nm southeast of buoy 44065 to 39 nm east of buoy 44065. The area of Thunderstorms was moving northwest at 10 knots. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 3994 7337 4001 7343 4032 7304 4032 7302 4004 7275 3998 7302 3995 7329 3989 7335
ANZ300 437 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds across the waters through tonight and then offshore on Sunday. A slow moving frontal system will then affect the area through mid week, followed by high pressure at the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Beach, NY
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location: 40, -72.73     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 071021 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 521 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build from the west today, settle over the area tonight, then pass east on Sunday. A warm front will approach on Monday and lift north Monday night. A cold front will then approach on Tuesday and pass through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Arctic high pressure will then follow later in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Looking at a mostly sunny and cooler day, with diminishing NW winds as high pressure builds from the west and the pressure gradient weakens.

With the change in air mass, have stuck closer to MOS numbers than otherwise might have been the case judging from MAV/ECS performance yesterday. Have thus fcst high temps today near 40 NYC metro/Long Island and mid/upper 30s north/west.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. Clear skies and light winds tonight under building high pressure should lead to a cold night. Lows in the 20s in and just outside NYC, teens most elsewhere, and some single digit lows may be possible in the interior valleys well NW of the city and in the Long Island Pine Barrens.

Developing return flow on Sunday as the high shifts east should allow slight moderation in temps, with lower 40s NYC metro/Long Island/coastal CT and upper 30s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Somewhat complex scenario shaping up for early week as an amplifying long wave trough develops over the lower 48. First, a warm front riding up the coast, and accompanied by a shortwave trough embedded in the deep layer SW flow E of the amplifying longwave trough, should bring a round of moderate to locally heavy rain on Mon. Think ECMWF is more correct than the GFS with its axis of heavier rain falling more squarely over the area rather than to the east, via enhanced lift beneath a coupled low level convergence/upper level divergence couplet. Wind forecast tricky as there will be both a strong LLJ present and low level inversion to prevent stronger winds from reaching the sfc except perhaps in heavier precip accompanying warm fropa late day or early evening. Have mentioned slight chance thunder mainly for the metro area and Long Island with models showing some elevated instability and TT nearing 50.

Once we get into the warm sector, precip chances should diminish going into overnight Mon night into Tue morning, then increase with cold fropa Tue night. This second round of steady precip will likely be anafrontal in nature given, lagging behind cold fropa given the lagging mid level trough and anticyclonic upper level jet streak approaching from the west. In this scenario, precip should change to a period of snow from late Tue night into Wed especially north/west, as colder air pours in, especially north/west of NYC where a couple of inches accumulation appears likely, and lesser amts toward the coast. The slower/wetter ECMWF cold fropa suggests a possible worst case of advy level snowfall inland, and maybe an inch or two for NYC metro and the coast.

Very cold air will settle in Wednesday night and Thursday, with temps likely remain below freezing. A slight warmup is expected by Friday as high pressure passes east.

AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. VFR. High pressure builds in from the west through tonight, then passes offshore on Sunday.

NW winds (mainly right of 310 magnetic) around 10 kt today, then becoming light and variable overnight.

OUTLOOK FOR 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Sunday. VFR. Sunday night and Monday. MVFR or lower with a chance of showers after midnight, becoming widespread Monday afternoon. S wind G20- 25kt, mainly at the coastal terminals, with a chance of LLWS Monday into Monday night. Tuesday. MVFR or lower in showers, possibly ending as a period of snow late at night. Wednesday. Chance of rain or snow in the morning. W-NW G20-25kt possible.

MARINE. SCA conditions on the ocean waters will linger another couple of hours, otherwise subsiding winds and seas as high pressure builds in from the west. The high builds overheard by Sunday morning and then offshore during the day. A strengthening southerly flow may bring marginal SCA conditions to the ocean waters Sunday night.

Thereafter, a prolonged period of SCA conditions is forecast on the ocean waters due to a persistent southerly flow and building seas as a cold front approaches from the west, passing through the waters Tuesday night. There is a chance of gales Monday afternoon into Monday night, however, there is uncertainty as a strong inversion sets up across the waters, limiting the high wind potential. Marginal SCA conditions are possible elsewhere.

Post-frontal SCA conditions in the W-NW flow are possible Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY. A significant long duration rainfall event is expected from late Sunday night into Wed. Event total QPF likely to range from 1.5-2.0 inches, perhaps 2-3 inches if wetter guidance ends up being more correct. There will be some lulls in the precipitation, but the rain could be heavy at times Monday and Monday night, and again later Tuesday. The long duration of the event should preclude widespread flooding. Nuisance/poor drainage flooding is the most likely outcome.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

The KOKX WSR-88D radar will be out of service until approximately 12/7 due to the refurbishment of the transmitter. This work is part of the NEXRAD Service Life Extension Program.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ350- 353-355.

SYNOPSIS . Goodman/PW NEAR TERM . Goodman SHORT TERM . Goodman LONG TERM . Goodman/PW AVIATION . DW MARINE . DW HYDROLOGY . Goodman EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44066 27 mi35 min N 19 G 23 43°F 58°F1024.2 hPa29°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 29 mi75 min NNW 23 G 27 39°F 51°F5 ft1023.4 hPa (+2.2)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 58 mi25 min NW 16 G 21 38°F 49°F1025.5 hPa25°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY57 mi69 minNNW 810.00 miFair32°F19°F59%1024.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWV

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmW3SW4CalmW5W6W8W6W6W8W4W3CalmCalmN3W4CalmCalmCalmW3W3W3W4W4

Tide / Current Tables for Point o' Woods, Long Island, New York
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Point o' Woods
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:23 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:09 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:27 AM EST     0.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:00 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:43 PM EST     0.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.20.30.50.60.60.60.60.50.30.20.10.10.10.30.40.50.60.60.60.40.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:09 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:45 AM EST     0.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:47 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:02 PM EST     0.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:53 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.40.50.60.60.60.50.40.30.20.10.10.20.30.50.60.60.60.50.40.30.10.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.