Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wrightsville, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 8:07PM Thursday August 13, 2020 9:27 PM EDT (01:27 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:49PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 738 Pm Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves flat. Showers likely with a chance of tstms this evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 738 Pm Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A stationary front will remain near the mid atlantic through Saturday before gradually moving to the south late in the weekend. A cold front will approach early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wrightsville , PA
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location: 40.02, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 140008 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 808 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. A stationary frontal zone wavering over southern PA will maintain a chance of scattered, locally heavy downpours tonight into Friday. Unsettled conditions with cooler temperatures are forecast for the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Quick update for cancellation of flash flood watch for York and Lancaster Counties.

Previous discussion 736 PM EDT .

Moist/unstable airmass with sfc dewpoints in the 65-70F range resides across the southern tier of CPA. 23UTC SPC mesoanalysis shows zone of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE helping to fuel isolated downpours. The loss of heating should fade the convection with POPs trending lower into tonight. Latest CAMs support the bearish trend.

Quite an airmass change heading into the northern 1/2 of the CWA with a mainly clear sky and comfy dewpoints in the low-mid 50s.

Odds are increasing that the flash flood watch may be able to expire before 04Z expiration. Will coordinate with PHI/LWX.

Low dewpoint air will allow min temps to dip into the 50s across the northern tier, creating a favorable setup for radiational valley fog with air/water temps exceeding 20F. Temps stay muggy across the south central/southeast zones with lows around 70F in the lower Susquehanna Valley metro areas.

SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. A repeat of today is in store for Friday with sct/nmrs storms again forming mainly in the aftn. One change may be that the storms may actually creep more to the north on Friday with an upper level trough developing in the OH Valley. Maxes look very very similar to today, as well.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. By Friday evening, split flow produces a weak broad upper trough over the lingering frontal boundary to our south. This will bring a surge of moisture into the Commonwealth Saturday afternoon and Sunday. Anomalous southeasterly 850-mb flow (approaching record values for this time of year) will help funnel ample moisture into the Middle Atlantic. Have upped PoPs in the SW starting Saturday afternoon and maintain higher PoPs farther east through Sunday evening. Despite the GFS being the outlier earlier in the week, other models have gradually trended toward a wetter solution. Still, ample uncertainty remains. The NAM brings almost no rain to north of the Mason-Dixon line Saturday and Sunday, while the GEFS mean sits at widespread storm total precip exceeding 1" and spotty 2" amounts across south central PA. Opted to ramp up PoPs across south-central PA where confidence is highest in rain occurring, but shaved off about 20% of QPF from a blend of NBM, WPC Guidance, and the SuperBlend.

The weak surface trough will stick around through Monday before a cold front sweeps through the Commonwealth, marking the end of an unsettled stretch and ushering in cooler and drier weather.

The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 temperature outlook favors below normal temperatures in central PA. This will be a welcome relief after a prolonged stretch of warm weather. Additionally, the arrival of high pressure by the middle of next week seems to favor a drier than normal stretch for a little bit.

Precipitation chances ramp up again across the southern tier by late week, but no significant impacts are expected.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. 00Z TAFS sent.

Isolated showers and storms across the south, but not near any TAF sites at this point.

Some fog and lower clouds possible late, but rainfall less widespread today than in recent days, thus I did not hit fog and low clouds very hard.

Friday at this point looks mainly dry, similar to what we had today, thus only used VCSH across the south.

More in the way of widespread showers possible for later Saturday into Sunday Night, but still a ways out. Much of our area could remain between systems to the southeast and southwest of our area.

Outlook .

Sat-Sun . More in the way of widespread showers possible. Mon . Still a chance of showers and storms. Tue . Clearing skies.

CLIMATE. A daily record high temperature of 87 degrees was tied at Bradford on 8/13. The previous record was set in 1988.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Steinbugl NEAR TERM . Steinbugl SHORT TERM . Lambert/Dangelo LONG TERM . RXR/Banghoff AVIATION . Martin CLIMATE . Gutierrez


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 51 mi57 min ESE 1.9 G 1.9 75°F 84°F1017.5 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 52 mi57 min E 7 G 9.9 79°F 85°F1016.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 55 mi57 min E 7 G 8.9 79°F 1016.8 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA14 mi34 minE 410.00 miFair75°F69°F82%1017.7 hPa
Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport, PA18 mi31 minESE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F71°F77%1017.2 hPa
York, York Airport, PA19 mi34 minESE 310.00 miFair75°F69°F82%1017.4 hPa
Harrisburg, Capital City Airport, PA22 mi31 minESE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F70°F69%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLNS

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmE4NE5N4CalmNE3CalmN5E3SE3E6E6SE6SE5E4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W3CalmNE3NE4NE63CalmNW7NE9N6S9SE5SE6SE3Calm
2 days agoS4CalmE3CalmE3CalmE3SE3CalmSE3S3CalmW4Calm6S9S7S8S6SW8W11S4E4E3

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:23 AM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     3.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:05 PM EDT     1.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:18 PM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.81.21.72.433.33.43.332.72.42.11.91.71.61.722.22.221.71.41.1

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2)
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:37 PM EDT     1.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:25 PM EDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:43 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.11.52.12.52.82.82.72.52.321.71.51.41.41.51.71.81.81.71.41.10.90.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for State College, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.