Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wrightsville, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:17PM Friday January 24, 2020 8:19 PM EST (01:19 UTC) Moonrise 7:22AMMoonset 5:04PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 640 Pm Est Fri Jan 24 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...except around 1 ft or less near the mouth of the susquehanna. A chance of rain with patchy drizzle this evening, then rain after midnight with vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers with patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 640 Pm Est Fri Jan 24 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A low pressure system will move across the waters on Saturday. Northwest flow ahead of weak high pressure will build behind this system. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday through Sunday and again on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wrightsville , PA
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location: 40.02, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 250038 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 738 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. A soaking rain will occur tonight and early Saturday across the region. A glaze of freezing rain is possible as the rain begins over the higher terrain, especially over north-central PA. Snow showers will linger over the Allegheny Plateau through Sunday before fading into early next week. Above average temperatures are forecast through the end of the month.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. Regional radar loop this evening shows a band of moderate rain pushing into western Pa along axis of low level jet. POPs remain near 100 pct tonight, as this feature and associated plume of anomalous pwats overrun a relatively cool/stable air mass over central Pa. Latest HREFV2/SREF and latest operational runs all indicate the chance for a brief period of freezing rain on only the highest ridgetops of north central Pa late tonight with no travel impacts expected.

A bit of drizzle may preclude the arrival of the significant rain over the central mountains early this evening. However, onset timing of the real rain is roughly 04Z-06Z over the Allegheny Plateau and 10Z-12Z for areas east of the Susquehanna River.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Best mflux associated with low level jet will shift east of the region Saturday, causing the rain to taper off from west to east between 12Z-18Z. Latest HREFV2 and operational runs indicate the greatest rain totals will be across the eastern part of the forecast area, where areal averages of around 1.5 inches are expected. Orographic enhancement could result in higher totals of around 2 inches on the ridgetops of southeast Pa. Some minor poor drainage flooding appears possible, but given latest FFG/FFH numbers, believe the odds of significant issues are low.

Large scale forcing ahead of upper low will produce lingering scattered rain showers into the afternoon hours. Cooling aloft will cause the rain showers to change to snow showers over the Allegheny Plateau during the PM hours. However, accumulations appear unlikely due to surface riding, low inversion heights and surface temperatures remaining above freezing.

Around nightfall, snow showers may begin to stick over the wrn highlands, and have kept fcst almost exactly the same for Sat night. Accums right around an inch overnight in the W/far N. Otherwise, little or no accums. Mins will dip to within a few degs of 30F all over.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Cyclonic flow aloft and westerly low level flow brings an expected period of upslope/orographic snow showers to the favored high terrain of the western Alleghenies Sunday into Monday. Minor snow accumulations are forecast especially closer to Lake Erie. Clouds and some snow showers/flurries will likely linger through early next week across the Alleghenies.

No significant weather is expected through the middle of next week. Temperatures are forecast to above normal to close out the month, with minimum temperatures contributing the most to daily departure from climatology.

The operational ECMWF and GFS models are hinting at a potential winter storm to impact the Eastern U.S. to kick of the month of February around Groundhog Day. This would be the third weekend in a row that the region faces a significant storm threat. This far out, there is a wide range of possibilities with the track, intensity and timing [details] of the storm which are very likely to change in the coming days. So just a heads-up for now and will continue to monitor.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 00Z TAFS sent.

CIGS have got better across the east. Showers still well to the west.

Occluded frontal zone will move across the region on Saturday, with improving conditions behind the front. Added some detail to the 00Z TAF package.

Late afternoon discussion below.

Updated TAFS here late this afternoon. Area of showers still to the north and west, except for BFD and perhaps JST. Some adjustments made to CIGS etc.

Early afternoon discussion below.

Large, mature, well-wrapped up storm heading in from the MS valley, now. Just started to sprinkle in JST/FIG/BFD, but the real rain and lowered vis/cigs won't come into the west for another 4-5hrs. Expect the steady rain and worst flying conditions during the middle of the night in the west and late night into mid-morning in the east.

LLWS is a real worry tonight, esp this evening over JST/AOO/BFD where winds will be 55-60KT before/lower than FL020. The wind will be strong and will carry LLWS at all sites tonight, but by morning, the sfc occlusion pushes east and wind goes fairly light and westerly. The hardest rain will end as the occluded front goes past. But, low clouds and IFR fog/cigs may remain, as well as a little DZ.

Air gets colder as the west wind continues. Some SHSN will then appear in the evening over the west, but drying will occur elsewhere. LNS/MDT should be VFR by midnight Sat night.

Outlook.

Sun . MVFR/IFR in upslope snow showers wrn 1/2. Trending VFR elsewhere.

Mon . Snow showers ending early wrn 1/3.

Tue . Low cigs psbl wrn 1/3. No sig wx.

Wed . VFR.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Dangelo NEAR TERM . Fitzgerald SHORT TERM . Dangelo/Fitzgerald LONG TERM . Steinbugl AVIATION . Dangelo/Martin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 51 mi56 min E 5.1 G 8.9 47°F 39°F1023.4 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 52 mi50 min ESE 7 G 11 38°F1021.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 55 mi50 min E 11 G 13 46°F 1021.9 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA14 mi27 minESE 1110.00 miA Few Clouds46°F37°F71%1022.6 hPa
Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport, PA18 mi84 minSE 810.00 miOvercast49°F35°F59%1021.8 hPa
York, York Airport, PA19 mi27 minESE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F36°F66%1021.4 hPa
Harrisburg, Capital City Airport, PA22 mi84 minESE 1010.00 miOvercast51°F35°F54%1021.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLNS

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3CalmE3CalmCalmE3W3CalmE3CalmCalmSE3E5E6E5E5SE12E6E6E6SE6E12E11
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmSE3E3CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW5W5W5NW6W5W3W5W4W4W4W4W4W4Calm3CalmNW5CalmW5NW4CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:09 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:50 AM EST     1.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 04:54 PM EST     -0.85 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:03 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:56 PM EST     2.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.71.30.80.30-0.100.511.110.70.3-0.2-0.5-0.8-0.8-0.6-00.81.62.12.3

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2)
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:41 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:57 AM EST     0.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:26 PM EST     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 05:03 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:03 PM EST     1.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.410.60.2-0.1-0.10.10.50.80.90.80.50.2-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.40.10.81.41.81.91.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for State College, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.