Wednesday, March3, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manasquan, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 5:51PM Wednesday March 3, 2021 6:25 AM EST (11:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 10:03AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 403 Am Est Wed Mar 3 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm est this afternoon...
Today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas around 3 ft this morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the sw with a dominant period of 4 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 10 seconds, becoming mainly from the W with a dominant period of 3 seconds after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 4 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 403 Am Est Wed Mar 3 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A couple of cold fronts will move through the northern mid- atlantic tonight and Thursday. A strong and broad region of high pressure will build slowly southeastward into the eastern u.s. This weekend, lingering in the western atlantic through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manasquan , NJ
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location: 40.11, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 030759 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 259 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

SYNOPSIS. A couple of cold fronts will move through the northern Mid- Atlantic tonight and Thursday. A strong and broad region of high pressure will build slowly southeastward into the eastern U.S. this weekend, lingering in the western Atlantic through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Today . Mostly zonal flow aloft and a surface high ridging in from the SW will bring more fair weather to the area today. Mostly sunny skies are expected and with the coldest air now displaced NE of the region, temperatures will respond with more spring-like readings. Highs today will range from the mid/upper 40s for the NW areas to the low/mid 50s for Delmarva, SE PA and much of central and southern NJ. Winds will be mostly SW to W at 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight . An upper air vort max and very weak sfc low cross NE PA and nrn NJ this evening. A couple clouds and a wind shift will be all that is noticed with the feature. The winds shift will be with a cold front which will bring more cooler and drier air to the area late tonight and into the Short term. Lows tonight will be mostly 30 to 35 degrees for srn NJ and metro Philadelphia. Further north into the Lehigh Valley and nrn NJ lows will be in the upper 20s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. The main concern this period will be winds and fire-weather concerns, the latter particularly on Friday.

Large-scale troughing will become established in eastern Canada, extending southward along the East Coast, through the period. A vort max will dig southward on Thursday through New England, bringing a reinforcing cold front through the area during the day. Scant moisture downstream of the perturbation should preclude substantive precipitation from occurring, though it is not completely out of the question that a few flurries are observed in the Poconos.

The main issue for Thursday and Friday will be winds, with strong cold advection on Thursday resulting in colder temperatures (highs generally ten degrees colder on Thursday than Wednesday and another five or so degrees colder on Friday). Model soundings suggest mixing to 900-850 mb during this period, and with northwest flow in excess of 30 kt at these levels, a prolonged period of breezy to windy conditions is expected. Generally expect winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts in excess of 30 mph Thursday afternoon through Friday, with locally higher gusts in the usual vulnerable locations.

Particularly concerning is the very dry look to the model soundings on Friday (with the GFS suggesting dew points near or even below 0 degrees in portions of the CWA, for example; notably, the NAM is about ten degrees higher). Statistical guidance is likely much too high with dew points during this period, so lowered these several degrees (especially on Friday). See the fire weather discussion below for more details on this particular threat.

Winds should be on the downward trend Friday night as high pressure to our northwest makes its slow approach, but the pressure gradient should be high enough to maintain some mixing in the boundary layer. Therefore, expecting lows Friday night to be similar to Thursday night . mainly in the 20s across the area with teens north of I-80.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. This period will feature the beginning of a pattern change, with a stout warming trend early next week after a cold weekend.

The large-scale trough along the East Coast will remain in place through the weekend, as several vorticity maxima digging southeastward from southern Canada into the Mid-Atlantic contribute to continued deepening of the primary trough. Eventually, a potent shortwave trough will allow for pivoting and eventual progression of the longwave trough to the western Atlantic by Monday. This upper-level evolution will permit cold high pressure from Canada to build gradually into the eastern U.S., keeping conditions dry and temperatures lower than seasonal averages. Guidance has been trending downward somewhat with temperatures this weekend, and given the unusually deep amplitude to the trough (and strength of the upstream surface high), this seems reasonable.

Upstream of the deep trough, a broad but somewhat flat ridge will become the main player in our region early next week. Models are indicating a weak system shifting through the ridge Monday and Tuesday, reaching eastern Canada and adjacent portions of the Northeast on Tuesday. The GFS looks quite aggressive with the southward extent of large-scale lift and precipitation with this system. However, the 00z ECMWF has trended in this direction as well, though remaining noticeably farther north with QPF. Given the strength of the surface high and the high-amplitude nature of the upper pattern, I am skeptical of impacts in our CWA currently. Thus, a dry forecast remains through Day 7. With increasing heights and a return to west to southwest midlevel flow, expect a pronounced warming trend early next week, with highs probably approaching 60 in portions of the CWA by Tuesday.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR. Skies mostly SKC. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots this morning then W to NW winds this afternoon. A few gusts closer to 20 knots possible for KACY. Overall, high confid.

Tonight . VFR. Mostly SKC. Light NW or N winds. High confid.

Outlook .

Thursday through Sunday . VFR through the period. High confidence. Winds will generally be northwesterly, with speeds of 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt Thursday and Friday and generally 5 to 15 kt during the weekend.

MARINE. Today . Fair weather expected. SW winds will increase early with some 30 to 40 knot winds not far off the deck. I will be tough to mix this down with an overall warm advection pattern above the cold water, but some low-end SCA gusts can't be ruled out so we issued a SCA until 20Z today. Seas will probably not have enough time to build close to 5 ft, with mostly 2 to 3 ft seas expected.

Tonight . Fair weather continues. Winds will switch around to N or NW overnight behind a cold front.

Outlook .

Thursday . Conditions approaching advisory criteria, with northwest winds increasing to 15 to 25 kt by late afternoon.

Thursday night and Friday . Advisory conditions expected, with marginal gale conditions possible.

Friday night . Advisory-level northwest winds should continue, though speeds will be diminishing with time.

Saturday through Sunday . Sub-advisory conditions expected.

FIRE WEATHER. A prolonged period of dry weather is expected across the region, lasting for at least a week. Additionally, frequently breezy conditions will occur, especially on Thursday and Friday. As a couple cold fronts move through the region tonight and Thursday, very dry air will become established across the Mid-Atlantic by Friday. Winds will likely remain elevated, with speeds and gusts readily exceeding 20 mph. This setup will allow for minimum relative humidity readings well below 30 percent on Friday. We will continue to coordinate with fire-weather partners through the week to determine if fuels will be sufficiently dry to support the need for special weather statements and/or fire weather products on Friday. Though winds will be lighter this weekend, dew points will remain unusually low, so conditions may be close to fire-weather thresholds several days in a row.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ450>455.

Synopsis . CMS Near Term . O'Hara Short Term . CMS Long Term . CMS Aviation . CMS/O'Hara Marine . CMS/O'Hara Fire Weather . CMS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi29 minWSW 810.00 miFair30°F20°F66%1015.6 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ16 mi85 minWSW 610.00 miFair28°F20°F72%1015.8 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ18 mi29 minWSW 910.00 miFair28°F23°F81%1016 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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W8W6SW3SW4SW6S6SW6S5SW6SW8SW9SW8W8
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2 days agoN6N3NE6E7NE8E11E5E6E8E9E10
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E9--E9E9E8NE6NE5E3N4NW4W3CalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Girt, New Jersey
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Sea Girt
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:00 AM EST     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:26 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:02 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:12 AM EST     4.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:18 PM EST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:50 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:45 PM EST     4.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.320.7-0.1-0.5-0.10.82.13.244.44.23.42.210.1-0.3-0.20.51.7344.64.8

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:02 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:56 AM EST     -3.04 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:26 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:41 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:03 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:16 AM EST     2.74 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:19 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:16 PM EST     -2.81 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:50 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:54 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:40 PM EST     3.08 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.1-1.1-2.1-2.8-3-2.5-1.20.522.72.51.60.4-0.8-1.7-2.4-2.8-2.6-1.50.21.82.93

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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