Friday, September25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Girt, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 6:49PM Friday September 25, 2020 8:23 PM EDT (00:23 UTC) Moonrise 3:52PMMoonset 12:18AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 703 Pm Edt Fri Sep 25 2020
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A slight chance of showers after midnight. A chance of showers late. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Patchy drizzle. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Patchy drizzle early in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Sun night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 703 Pm Edt Fri Sep 25 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. The remnants of beta will pass to the south of the region through Saturday. High pressure will settle to the south and east of the area for Sunday into Monday. Low pressure will affect the area around the middle of next week eventually dragging a cold front through the region by late next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Girt , NJ
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location: 40.13, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 252105 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 505 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. The remnants of Beta will pass to the south of the region through Saturday. High pressure will settle to the south and east of the area for Sunday into Monday. Low pressure will affect the area around the middle of next week eventually dragging a cold front through the region by late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. Showers will slowly work their way northward tonight as the surface low moves northeastward. Given the increased cloud cover, expecting warmer temperatures across the area. This should preclude the fog threat, but moisture advection from the south will increase dew points. Light winds will once again settle across the region, so kept the mention of patchy fog overnight. Overall, not expecting as widespread of an event as this morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. As low pressure creeps its way eastward across the Virginia-North Carolina border tomorrow, expect showers to glide northward into the region. While better chances will remain across the southern half of the region from Philadelphia southward, the surface low has been trending ever so slightly northward, and some of the hi-res guidance has trended much more bullish of the shower activity across southeastern Pennsylvania and central New Jersey tomorrow. Increased these areas to chance to likely PoPs tomorrow to follow these indications. With weak surface forcing, exact placement and timing of when said showers will occur remains quite ambiguous. While the day doesn't appear to be a washout, be ready for a shower or two through the early afternoon.

Low pressure will transition offshore into the evening hours, with showers lifting to the northeast into the overnight. With the low washing out and filling in the process, any forcing, albeit quite weak, will be on the decrease through the day. Highs will remain shunted a little cooler than today with the added cloud cover, so expect mid 70s across the forecast area. With easterly winds, expect slightly cooler weather along the immediate coast with low 70s.

Meanwhile, to our west, an Autumn transition will unfold as a mid- level trough starts to dig southward across the northern Plains. This will be a sign of a pattern change compared to what we saw last week.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Saturday night through Monday .

This period will be dominated by a moist southerly flow as a series of lows move northward west of our region while high pressure sits off the east coast. In the upper levels, there will be a deepening long wave trough over the midwest extending south towards the Gulf coast with ridging in the western Atlantic.

In terms of the forecast details, skies should generally remain mostly cloudy Saturday night at least into the first part of Sunday morning due to low stratus. There also looks to be enough moisture in the lowest levels for some patchy drizzle and fog to be around. It still looks like there should be at least some sun by Sunday afternoon but confidence on when clouds break up and how much sun we get is a little lower than normal. It'll be a warm, moist environment with the southerly flow and we're forecasting highs in the upper 70s to around 80 with dew points rising into the upper 60s. But these highs though could be a bit cooler if more clouds hang on though

Sunday night into early Monday looks like a similar set up due to the continuing pattern of moist southerly flow. Low stratus and drizzle looks likely and as a weak upper level impulse moves through later Sunday night into Monday, this could also spark a few showers and maybe even a couple storms by Monday afternoon. Otherwise, a lot of clouds look to stick around through Monday but it won't be a washout with conditions once again fairly warm and humid similar to Sunday.

Monday night through Friday .

This part of the forecast turns quite complex as there will be a pattern change unfolding as a long wave trough digs in the east while ridging builds in the west. This will bring an overall cooling trend by the middle to end of next week along with unsettled weather during the transition. However the details of how this all unfolds still remain uncertain as forecast guidance has differing solutions.

Monday night into Tuesday, low pressure moves through Ontario and Quebec eventually pushing a cold front towards the region from the west by late Tuesday. How fast this front moves through and whether another wave of low pressure develops along it over the area by Wednesday into Thursday remains the big question mark. There has been a general trend in guidance slowing it down which isn't too surprising given that the pattern is becoming more amplified. If the front moves through faster, Tuesday into Wednesday will feature some rain/showers and possibly even some thunderstorms followed by overall drier and cooler weather by Thursday and Friday. A slower solution as advertised by the ECMWF may mean rain/showers lasting into Thursday. Given the uncertainty, we keep chance POPs in for most of the period from Tuesday through Thursday with POPs diminishing to slight chance by next Friday as by then it should be drier and cooler.

Temperatures will continue to be seasonably warm and humid to start the period but cooler by next Friday when highs may only be in the 60s.

AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/.

Tonight . | Saturday . MVFR restrictions possible at times as rain showers move into the region from southwest to northeast. Best chances at ILG, MIV, and ACY, but the forecast has trended northward. Southeast winds from 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence overall, lower confidence on exact timing of showers and associated restrictions.

Outlook .

Saturday night into early Sunday morning . Mainly MVFR or lower due to low clouds, drizzle and patchy fog. Winds generally east/southeast under 5 knots. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . MVFR or lower should become mainly VFR in the afternoon. Southerly winds generally around 5 knots or less. Low confidence.

Monday and Tuesday . Mainly VFR with periods of MVFR or lower in showers and isolated thunderstorms and also during the overnight and early morning hours at times due to stratus, patchy fog. South to southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots on Tuesday. Low confidence.

Wednesday . Rain/shower chances continue potentially resulting in sub-VFR conditions. low confidence.

MARINE. Winds and seas are expected to stay below Small Craft advisory criteria through Saturday with south to southeast winds from 10 to 15 knots and seas from 1 to 3 feet.

Outlook .

Saturday night through Tuesday . Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected across the area waters though there may be some showers, drizzle, and fog around at times. Winds generally from the south with gusts up to 20 knots possible by late Tuesday.

Tuesday night through Wednesday . Seas build and likely reach SCA levels by later Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Rip Currents .

There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents through Saturday.

A southerly wind around 10 MPH is forecast. While there will be a long period (10 to 11 second) easterly swell, breaking waves are expected to be 2 feet or less.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Fitzsimmons Near Term . Davis Short Term . Davis Long Term . Fitzsimmons Aviation . Davis/Fitzsimmons Marine . Davis/Fitzsimmons


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 23 mi53 min SSE 6 G 8 69°F 1019.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 24 mi33 min S 12 G 14 68°F2 ft1018.8 hPa
44091 28 mi27 min 69°F2 ft
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi53 min 71°F 69°F1018.7 hPa
MHRN6 36 mi53 min SSE 7 G 8
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 36 mi53 min SSE 11 G 12 69°F 1018.5 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi53 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 69°F 65°F1019.5 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 39 mi53 min 70°F 68°F1019.1 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi47 min S 2.9 G 4.1 70°F 68°F1018.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi33 min S 12 G 14 67°F2 ft1019.4 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 47 mi53 min S 4.1 67°F 1020 hPa62°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 49 mi53 min SSW 7 G 8 69°F 1019.5 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ6 mi27 minN 010.00 miFair66°F0°F%1019.6 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair0°F0°F%1019.3 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ20 mi27 minS 410.00 miFair65°F62°F90%1020.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4S4SW6SW4SW5W3W3S5S3S3S5SW5CalmNW4CalmS34S4SE45SE7SE7CalmCalm
1 day agoSW6SW6SW4SW5SW4W5CalmNW4CalmNW4W3CalmNW3NW3CalmSW5SW4S4SW5CalmS4S3S3SW3
2 days agoW7W6W8W6W6W5W5SW4W6SW6SW4W4W7W9W10W10W13
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Tide / Current Tables for Sea Girt, New Jersey
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Sea Girt
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:31 AM EDT     3.82 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:43 AM EDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:01 PM EDT     4.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:34 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.63.33.83.83.32.721.410.81.222.93.74.44.74.43.82.921.20.70.61.1

Tide / Current Tables for Mantoloking, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Mantoloking
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:59 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:38 AM EDT     0.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:10 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:06 PM EDT     0.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.100.10.10.20.20.30.30.30.20.20.10.10.10.10.10.20.30.30.40.30.30.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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