Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Como, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:31PM Thursday December 12, 2019 5:03 PM EST (22:03 UTC) Moonrise 6:06PMMoonset 8:24AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 338 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft early, then 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late this evening and overnight. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A slight chance of drizzle late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers late in the morning. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Rain.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
ANZ400 338 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure currently overhead will retreat to the northeast through the overnight as a low pressure system pushes across the southeast towards the carolina coast. Conditions Friday will go downhill as this system rides up the eastern seaboard, deepening as it does so. By Sunday, drier northwest flow will begin to overspread the region as the low pulls off to the north and east. It will only be a brief period of respite as another low pressure center moves across the tennessee river valley and into the mid-atlantic Monday into Tuesday. High pressure finally looks to settle into the region Wednesday into Thursday next week behind this system.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Como , NJ
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Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 122053 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 353 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure currently overhead will retreat to the northeast through the overnight as a low pressure system pushes across the Southeast towards the Carolina Coast. Conditions Friday will go downhill as this system rides up the Eastern Seaboard, deepening as it does so. By Sunday, drier northwest flow will begin to overspread the region as the low pulls off to the north and east. It will only be a brief period of respite as another low pressure center moves across the Tennessee River Valley and into the mid-Atlantic Monday into Tuesday. High pressure finally looks to settle into the region Wednesday into Thursday next week behind this system.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. The High pressure which was centered over our area today will shift to the northeast tonight, allowing moisture and warmer air to begin filtering back into the area. The low-lvl flow (e.g. 925-850 mb) will begin to veer southeasterly overnight which will allow some lower clouds to begin moving into the area after midnight or so. Consequently expect overnight lows (generally ranging from the mid 20s to around 30) to largely occur before midnight with most locations being several degrees warmer by daybreak.

This increasing low-lvl moisture will combine with some weak isentropic ascent to potentially support some light precipitation or drizzle early Friday morning, with the greatest chances being in Delmarva and Southern NJ. Given how dry we are initially (e.g. current dewpoints are in the teens) combined with the fact that the upper-lvl dynamics won't arrive until later in the day, generally doubt we will see much measurable precip. There is also a small chance that the overunning setup could result in some freezing drizzle in spots along the northern periphery of the moisture return, but confidence in this occurring is too low to warrant any headlines at this time.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/. A lead shortwave will begin to approach during the day on Friday and an UL jet streak will approach from the south. These factors will combine with continued isentropic ascent to increase precipitation chances through the day on Friday. Although expect that the bulk of the precipitation will be light in this period (the heavier precipitation will likely occur in the extended) do have high enough confidence to include likely PoPs for just about everywhere by Friday afternoon. Regarding Ptypes there is the potential for some light FZRA (particularly north of I-78) Friday morning, but given uncertainty over both PoPs and the thermal profiles in this period did not include any ice accumulations at this time. Also can't rule out some patchy fog/mist Friday afternoon as low-lvl moisture and precipitation begin to increase (particularly over SE PA).

Temperatures will be warmer than today, although uncertainty (as is typical in these prefrontal overunning setups) does increase further away from the coast. Generally expect highs along and east of I-95 to reach the upper 40s to lower 50s, while low-mid 40s will be the norm over interior eastern PA and NW NJ.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/.

A novel, Part 1 (shorter long term) .

A wet and wild beginning to the extended forecast period as low pressure moves out of the Southeast toward the Carolina Coast by Saturday morning. Strong PVA and WAA associated with a strongly negatively oriented mid- level trough will lead to strong pressure and height falls over our region and into the Northeast, progressing the surface low quickly off to the north and east through the day Saturday and into Saturday night. A strong jet developing over New England will also aid in the rapid intensification of the low, especially as it moves from the mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast. The low looks to track mostly over our region, thus we will bear much of the impact. Rain looks to fall heaviest early Saturday morning, where much of the area will likely pick up at least half an inch of rain in the first portion of the day. Given the track of the low, have a feeling that rain rates will lessen mid to late morning and into the afternoon behind the first initial surge in rain early Saturday morning as the center of the surface low moves near or just west of the Delaware Valley. This may work to dry slot us a little more than what some of the models are suggesting, so only made some minor adjustments to the QPF grids for now.

Give the antecedent conditions, minor flooding could be an issue. Normally, rainfall below two inches over this span of time wouldn't lead to significant concerns, but the appreciable rainfall we experience earlier this week has almost saturated portions of the soil, limiting the amounts necessary to cause concerns. PWATS ranging from one to one and a half inches support moderate to heavy rainfall, thus there is increased concern for localized flooding. Rainfall above two inches will likely cause concerns so if we can keep amounts below this, things should stay fine. Rainfall totals right now range from one to one and a half inches, so no flood products appear to be needed at this time but this could change if forecast totals trend upwards.

Considerable warm air advection with southeasterly flow ahead of the system will lead to mild conditions Saturday with 850 mb temps from 10 to 15 degrees C. Thus, highs are forecast to make it into the low to mid 50s again Saturday. There isn't a substantial push of cold air with this system, unlike the snow producer earlier this week, thus, no frozen precip is forecast as the low moves northeast Sunday. Temperature will drop but not too drastically for this time of year with afternoon highs Sunday sitting in the mid to upper 40s. It will be breezy, however, with wind gusts up to 25 mph into the afternoon. Low temperatures Sunday night will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s across the region.

A novel, Part 2 (longer long term) .

A ridge of high pressure will be across the region early Monday. After a seasonably chilly morning, the high will move offshore and clouds will increase over the area. Precipitation will follow for the afternoon when temperatures should have warmed enough to allow mostly rain for the area. We have to still mention the possibility for some snow at the onset for the W and NW areas, but there is plenty of uncertainty at this range about the beginnings of the storm. Earlier precip favors more mixed/snow while later timing will bring mostly rain. Either way, a period of 24 to 30 hours of (mostly) rains across the CWA with perhaps 3/4 to 1 1/2 inches of QPF possible. Temperatures will be a little above normal Tue as long as the present storm track just N of the area holds. Highs will be in the 40s N and 50s S. The EC is showing much warmer readings attm, but not ready to go with this solution attm.

Precipitation ends overnight Tue into Wed morning, perhaps as a little snow, as colder air arrives. The few days after that will feature mainly dry but cold weather. High pressure will settle across the area at the end of the week. Highs will mostly be in the 30s, but some low 40s for Delmarva are possible.

AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

TONIGHT . We will start the night VFR with some lower ceilings beginning to move in from SE-NW around midnight. Timing regarding when these Cigs will lower to MVFR is tricky, but it is generally expected to be in the 06-12Z time frame (likely starting at KACY AND KMIV). Winds will favor an easterly-northeasterly direction at 5 knots or less. High confidence in wind direction and lowering ceilings, low confidence in timing of MVFR conditions.

Friday . Generally MVFR to start the day, with conditions likely deteriorating to IFR Friday afternoon with some visibility restrictions in mist also possible. Light rain will be possible at times during the day Friday at all terminals. Winds will favor an easterly direction between 5-10 kts. High confidence in general flight category trends and winds, low confidence in specific category timings.

Outlook .

Saturday . MVFR to IFR as moderate to heavy rain moves through the region. Easterly winds turning southwesterly from 5 to 10 knots in the morning with gusts up to 15 knots strengthening to 10 to 15 knots and gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . MVFR conditions possible, especially in the early morning as rain showers lift north and east. VFR conditions return as the low pressure as the storm system lifts to our north. Breezy with westerly winds from 10 to 15 knots and gusts from 25 to 30 knots possible. Moderate confidence confidence.

Sunday night . VFR conditions expected with northwesterly winds from 5 to 10 knots. High clouds will be on the increase by Monday morning as another storm system begins to close in on the region. Moderate confidence.

Monday and Monday night . Mainly VFR conditions expected. Rain/snow may move into the terminals by late morning/early afternoon. West to northwest winds from 5 to 10 knots. Low confidence.

MARINE. As high pressure moves northeast of the area a general easterly- southeasterly flow will develop over the waters tonight through the day on Friday. Expect conditions to remain below criteria through the day on Friday with easterly winds sustained 10-15 kts and gusting to 20 kts. 2-3 ft seas tonight will increase to around 4 ft by Friday afternoon.

Outlook .

Saturday . Winds may approach Small Craft Advisory Criteria by the late afternoon with gusts nearing 25 knots out of the southwest. Seas from 5 to 7 feet.

Saturday night . Small Craft Advisory winds out of the southwest will prevail. There is the potential for a Gale force gusts early Sunday morning. Seas drop to 3 to 5 feet.

Sunday . Gale force gusts possible out of the west from 30 to 35 knots through the afternoon. Seas ranging from 4 to 6 feet.

Sunday night . Small Craft Advisory winds out of the west-northwest with gusts near or exceeding 25 knots. Seas from 2 to 4 feet.

Monday and Monday night . Seas are expected to fall below 5 feet by early Monday morning and will drop to around 1 to 3 feet through the day. Some 25 knot gusts may occur early Monday before 12Z but are expected to be out of the northwest around 10 to 15 knots throughout the remainder of the day.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Davis Near Term . Carr Short Term . Carr Long Term . Davis/O'Hara Aviation . Carr/Davis/O'Hara Marine . Carr/Davis/O'Hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 21 mi46 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 33°F 43°F1039.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 21 mi34 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 34°F 1039.8 hPa17°F
44091 29 mi34 min 50°F2 ft
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 34 mi46 min 33°F 44°F1039.5 hPa
MHRN6 34 mi46 min S 1.9 G 5.1
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi46 min S 9.9 G 11 34°F 1039.2 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 37 mi46 min 34°F 45°F1039.3 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi52 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 36°F 41°F1039.6 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 45 mi74 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 35°F 50°F2 ft1039.8 hPa (+0.0)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi88 min S 2.9 G 5.1 36°F 41°F1038.8 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 47 mi46 min S 2.9 G 4.1 33°F 43°F1039.9 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi2.1 hrsE 410.00 miFair34°F12°F40%1039.9 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ19 mi2.1 hrsSE 410.00 miFair36°F12°F37%1039.2 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ22 mi2.1 hrsVar 310.00 miFair38°F12°F36%1039.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW6W8W7W8W11W12W12W7W8W7NW12NW9NW9NW9NW6N5N9N8N6N8N3E4E4
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W8W8W9W5NW6NW6--------N5NW4W4SW6W6
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Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 12:37 AM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:51 AM EST     5.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:24 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:27 PM EST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:23 PM EST     4.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.10.51.73.14.355.24.83.82.51.30.3-0.3-0.30.51.72.93.74.24.13.42.31.2

Tide / Current Tables for Riviera Beach, New Jersey
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Riviera Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 02:00 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:24 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:34 AM EST     4.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:50 PM EST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:06 PM EST     3.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50-0.20.21.22.43.43.943.62.81.91.10.4-0.1-0.30.21.22.233.33.12.61.8

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.