Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
West Belmar, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:33AMSunset 8:28PM Thursday July 9, 2020 8:10 AM EDT (12:10 UTC) Moonrise 11:37PMMoonset 9:55AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 702 Am Edt Thu Jul 9 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Friday afternoon...
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft this afternoon. Patchy fog early this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Showers likely late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Fri..E winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 6 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Fri night..SE winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Showers until early morning. A chance of showers late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until early morning. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..SW winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 702 Am Edt Thu Jul 9 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Weak high pressure will continue to influence our weather into Thursday. Weak low pressure centered along the carolina coast this afternoon is forecast to progress to the north. The low is expected to pass through or near our region on Friday and Friday night. A frontal boundary is anticipated to approach from the northwest on Saturday. The front is expected to move slowly through our region on Sunday and Monday before drifting away to our southeast during the middle of the new week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Belmar, NJ
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location: 40.18, -74.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 090815 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure will continue to influence our weather into Thursday. Weak low pressure centered along the Carolina coast this afternoon is forecast to progress to the north. The low is expected to pass through or near our region on Friday and Friday night. A frontal boundary is anticipated to approach from the northwest on Saturday. The front is expected to move slowly through our region on Sunday and Monday before drifting away to our southeast during the middle of the new week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Yet another morning of low clouds and fog (dense it some spots) this morning. With the winds remaining fairly light, expect it may take a bit longer to fully clear/lift and could persist through at least mid morning.

Once the fog and low clouds clear out, we should actually have a decent day across the forecast area as weak high pressure continues to nose down into the Mid Atlantic. Skies will be relatively clear with increasing cloudiness through the day. With ample sunshine, temperatures will rise back into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region. Once again, dew points will be high and in the low to mid 70s, keeping it humid outside, with heat index values into the low to mid 90s.

There still remains a chance for some showers or thunderstorms across portions of the forecast area later this afternoon. However, with weak ridging across the region, expect the majority of the day to be dry with some instability showers popping up over the Lehigh Valley and southern Poconos. Some showers and/or thunderstorms may start to push into southern Delaware and nearby areas of Maryland by late afternoon/early evening as the next system starts to push closer to our area.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. . A Coastal Low Pressure System will likely bring heavy rains to the Mid Atlantic .

Impacts: We will see building seas and a substantial increase in the chances for life threatening Rip Currents overnight Thursday into Friday. From early Friday morning through Friday evening, there is the potential for widespread heavy rain. Along the coastal areas we'll see the potential for gusty winds of 30-35kts over the waters and along the shore. As the low deepen's we'll see an increase in tidal waters however significant tidal flooding isn't currently anticipated.

The focus for the short term forecast remains the development and evolution of the tropical/subtropical system that is starting to take shape off the North Carolina coastline. Recent radar reflectivity indicates that a circulation has developed and based on the satellite presentation, there is quite a bit of deep convection developing on the northeastern extent of the system. This is slightly east of where most of the models this evening initialized and thus the system may continue to increase in intensity over the warmer Atlantic waters.

The system will start to push north through the day today and we will start to feel the impacts overnight Thursday night into Friday morning. The trends in the guidance remain consistent that the low shouldn't be particularly strong when it reaches our area. However the tropical airmass still looks to have the potential to produce widespread heavy rain across the region. Given the recent rains and flooding across portions of the forecast area, we'll need to continue to monitor where the axis of the heaviest precip will end up falling. Winds will start to increase overnight tonight into Friday morning and we may see some 30-40kt gusts over the waters however as the winds move on shore the higher roughness length and frictional effects of land will cause the winds to rapidly weaken.

Based on a blend of national guidance, the previous forecast, and a blend of the models except the GFS, we're currently thinking that we'll see an average of 2 to 3 inches across DelMarVa and eastern Jersey with between 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over eastern PA. The GFS is the most west in its deterministic low pressure center however the GEFS mean is well east of that deterministic run. So I hedged towards an inland system but further east of the GFS and quite a bit slower as well. Either way the heavy rains should pass out of the region late Friday evening as a frontal boundary approaches from the west.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. From the weekend onwards, a frontal boundary is forecast to approach from the northwest on Saturday and it is expected to move slowly through our region through the weekend. There will likely be enough moisture and instability during the afternoon and early evening each day to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The front is anticipated to move away to our southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result, there is a decreasing chance of precipitation at that time.

Temperatures should favor the middle 80s to the lower 90s from Saturday through Wednesday.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . A mixture of low clouds and fog across the terminals this morning will lift and dissipate around 14Z-15Z, giving way to VFR conditions for much of the day. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly at KRDG and KABE but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time. Southeast to east winds around 5 to 10 knots. Moderate to high confidence.

Tonight . Mainly VFR conditions expected with MVFR or lower conditions moving in from south to north in rain and thunderstorms. Conditions will deteriorate around 02Z-04Z for KACY and KMIV, between 04-06Z for KILG, KPHL, KPNE, and KTTN, and after 06Z for KABE and KRDG. East to northeast winds around 5 to 15 knots, with higher gusts possible. Moderate confidence overall but low confidence on timing of lower conditions.

Outlook .

Friday . MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms. The rain will be heavy at times. East northeast winds backing to Northeast wind around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 kts across the DE/NJ terminals and generally 5 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 for the PA terminals. Medium confidence.

Friday night . MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms with a decreasing chance of rain overnight. Variable wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming light northwest during the late evening hours. Medium confidence.

Saturday . Mainly VFR with periods of MVFR possible in showers. A chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. West to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Saturday night . Mainly VFR. A chance of evening showers and thunderstorms. Late night visibility restrictions are possible. Variable wind 6 knots or less. Medium confidence.

Sunday . Mainly VFR. A chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. West to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Sunday night . Mainly VFR. A chance of evening showers and thunderstorms. Late night visibility restrictions are possible. Variable wind 6 knots or less. Medium confidence.

Monday . Mainly VFR with periods of MVFR possible in showers. A chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. West to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.

MARINE. Sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue on the area waters through this evening with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected tonight, over the Delaware Bay and the Atlantic waters south of Brigantine and Atlantic City.

Easterly winds around 10 to 15 knots, increasing from south to north tonight becoming 15 to 25 with gusts up to 30 knots. Showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon through tonight, mainly over the southern waters and pushing northward overnight. Seas around 2 to 3 feet during the day building to 5 to 8 feet overnight.

Outlook .

Friday . A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for our ocean waters for wind gusts up to 35 knots and wave heights building to 5 to 7 feet.

Friday night . Wave heights on our ocean waters may remain around 4 to 6 feet.

Saturday through Monday . No marine headlines are anticipated.

Rip Currents .

There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Thursday, as an east-to-southeast medium-period swell will begin to increase. This will occur as a coastal low begins to intensify to the south of the area. Conditions are expected to deteriorate on Friday, as a longer-period swell begins to develop with seas continuing to build as the low begins to move into the region. A high risk of dangerous rip currents is currently forecast for Friday, with potential for an elevated rip current risk to continue through the weekend.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The area of low pressure moving northward near the coast from Thursday night through Friday night is not expected to be particularly strong, and it should be somewhat progressive. As a result, we are not anticipating much in the way of tidal flooding. Positive departures in excess of 2 feet are needed to produce minor flooding. It seems as though tidal departures will remain less than 2 feet at most coastal locations on Friday.

EQUIPMENT. The Reading Regional Airport (KRDG) ASOS has returned to service.

The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ452>455. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ450- 451. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Iovino Near Term . Meola Short Term . Deal Long Term . Deal/Iovino Aviation . Deal/Meola Marine . Deal/Meola Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 20 mi53 min SSW 4.1 G 6 72°F 77°F1016.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 23 mi151 min SW 3.9 G 3.9 1015.2 hPa
44091 32 mi45 min 77°F2 ft
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 32 mi53 min 74°F 77°F1016.2 hPa
MHRN6 32 mi53 min S 2.9 G 4.1
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 33 mi53 min S 5.1 G 6 74°F 1016 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi53 min 75°F 74°F1016.3 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 37 mi59 min SSW 1.9 G 4.1 74°F 82°F1016.5 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 44 mi95 min S 1.9 G 4.1 74°F 82°F1015.4 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 46 mi53 min SSW 5.1 G 5.1 75°F 1016.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi151 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 77°F 1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ4 mi75 minWSW 30.25 miFog73°F0°F%1016.5 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi71 minno data0.50 miFog0°F0°F%1015.9 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ22 mi75 minN 01.25 miFog/Mist73°F73°F100%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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S8SE9S7S7S4SW4S5S3S3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW3
1 day agoE7E7SE7E8E10E9E10E10E10SE10E8SE8SE7SE4S5SE5S5S43S3CalmS3S3Calm
2 days agoW5W8CalmSW54E8E9S8SW6SW6W3E7----NE4E6E7E6E6E4SE6SE3E3E3

Tide / Current Tables for New Bedford, New Jersey
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New Bedford
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:37 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:47 AM EDT     4.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:45 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:55 PM EDT     4.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.842.91.80.80.20.10.71.72.73.54.14.33.93.12.21.40.90.81.22.23.13.94.5

Tide / Current Tables for Riviera Beach, New Jersey
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Riviera Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:22 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:08 PM EDT     3.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:30 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.83.42.71.91.10.40.10.20.81.72.433.33.22.72.11.40.90.60.61.222.73.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.