Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Grove, NJ

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Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 7:48PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 9:00 PM EDT (01:00 UTC) Moonrise 10:33PMMoonset 10:48AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 648 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms early in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..E winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 648 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A nearby front will lift slowly northward into new york and new england tonight and on Wednesday. A slow moving cold front is forecast to approach from the northwest on Wednesday night and Thursday. The boundary is expected to pass through our region on Thursday night. High pressure is anticipated to follow for the coming weekend and for the early part of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Grove, NJ
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location: 40.21, -73.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 202005
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
405 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis
A frontal boundary extended eastward from the southern great
lakes across pennsylvania to the waters off new jersey this
afternoon. The front will lift slowly northward into new york
and new england tonight and on Wednesday. A slow moving cold
front is forecast to approach from the northwest on Wednesday
night and Thursday. The boundary is expected to pass through our
region on Thursday night. High pressure is anticipated to
follow for the coming weekend and for the early part of next
week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
A remnant MCV continues to move through central pa this
afternoon and will approach our area this evening. Additionally,
showers and thunderstorms have developed along the convergence
boundary in DELMARVA this afternoon. Cumulus have popped across
the region but have struggled to really get going and we have
not seen much in the way of convection develop. As we continue
through this afternoon, we do expect some more convection to get
going but may be restricted to delmarva, easter pa, and mainly
the western areas of nj. There still remains a good deal of cin
across eastern nj, which is clearly evident on the visible
satellite where little to no cumulus have developed.

A frontal boundary near the region will slowly move northward
through tonight. The boundary across the region, combined with
several shortwaves moving through, will help to keep the chance
for some showers and thunderstorms to develop through the
overnight period. Pwats remain high through tonight (generally
1.50"-2.00") so any storms will be productive rain makers. Cape
values will be in the 1500-2000 j kg range but shear remains
fairly weak so not expecting much in the way of severe weather
although some storms may be able to produce decent downdrafts
and strong, gusty winds. Storm motions remain slow so the
potential for flooding will remain.

Conditions really had a chance to dry out in many areas today
and with many places not seeing much in the way of precip, the
chances for fog will lessen. However, wherever rain falls, the
lower levels will remain more saturated and fog is more likely
to develop overnight.

With decent cloud cover overnight, temperatures will remain
warm and in the 70s through much of the region, with some mid to
upper 60s across the southern poconos and northwestern new
jersey.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
Heat advisory remains in effect through Wednesday.

Another active day is in store for Wednesday as the
aforementioned frontal boundary pushes north of the region,
placing us firmly in the warm sector. Winds that have been more
southeasterly through today will turn more to the southwest and
we will see moisture increase across the region once again with
dew points rising into the low to mid 70s.

Hot and humid conditions will prevail with little relief
expected until showers and thunderstorms start to develop and
move through the forecast area. A pre-frontal trough will
develop ahead of the main front (which arrives Thursday) and
will be a focus for thunderstorm development across the region.

The main concern will be the potential for severe weather. The
spc has placed portions of our area in the slight risk category,
with damaging winds being the main threat. Shear is modest
(only around 20- 30 kts) but with CAPE increasing through the
day to around 1000-2000 j kg and plenty of moisture and lift
available, we could see some strong to severe storms develop,
mainly during the afternoon and evening and primarily to the
north and west of the i-95 corridor. Once again, pwats are
running high (up to 2.00") so heavy rainfall will be likely and
may result in some flooding concerns.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
We should be solidly in the warm and humid air on Wednesday
evening, with ongoing showers and thunderstorms. The warm front
is expected to be well up into new england at that time with an
approaching cold front extending across the eastern great lakes
and the lower ohio river valley.

The showers and thunderstorms are expected to weaken gradually
on Wednesday evening with the loss of daytime heating. Partly
cloudy and muggy conditions are anticipated for late Wednesday
night.

The cold front is forecast to extend from northern new england
to the ohio river valley on Thursday morning. The boundary will
likely sink slowly to the south, passing through our region from
late Thursday into Thursday night. We are expecting another hot
humid day. Heat index values may again approach 100 from the
philadelphia metropolitan area southward. However, conditions
seem borderline and we will not extend the heat advisory at this
point although it may need to be done as we get closer in time.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is forecast ahead of
and with the cold front from Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening.

Some improvement is expected on Friday as high pressure begins
to build down into our region from ontario. There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms from northeastern maryland and
delaware into southern new jersey as the departing front remains
nearby to our south.

The center of the high is anticipated to shift from ontario to
canada's maritime provinces over the weekend. This pattern will
keep our region in dry conditions with a developing northeast to
east flow. Temperatures will be cooler than what we are
currently experiencing and humidity levels will be noticeably
lower.

The onshore flow may bring a return of some moisture early in
the new week. We have included a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms at that time.

Aviation 20z Tuesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening will continue through tonight, which may
lead to MVFR or lower conditions at times. Otherwise, expect
mostlyVFR conditions across the region. Some guidance is
showing an increase in low clouds fog but dry air was able to
make it to many of the terminals so the best chances for this to
occur are at kmiv kacy overnight. Southeast winds around 5 to
10 knots this afternoon will drop off and become light and
variable overnight.

Wednesday... Lingering MVFR ifr conditions (mainly at kacy kmiv)
in the morning should clear by 15z and thenVFR is expected
through much of the day. Showers and thunderstorms will again
develop across the region and there will be the potential for
MVFR or lower conditions to occur during the afternoon and
evening, especially from kphl and northward. South to southwest
winds around 5 to 10 knots early will strengthen into the
afternoon, with some gusts around 15 to 20 knots possible.

Outlook...

Wednesday night... MVFR and ifr conditions with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday... Conditions improving toVFR. However, there will
continue to be a chance of showers and thunderstorms with
locally MVFR and ifr conditions. West wind 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms with locally MVFR and ifr conditions. Northwest
wind 5 to 10 knots.

Friday... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers. Northwest wind 5 to
10 knots.

Friday night... MainlyVFR. Variable wind 6 knots or less.

Saturday... MainlyVFR. North to northeast wind 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday night... MainlyVFR. Variable wind 6 knots or less.

Sunday... MainlyVFR. Northeast to east wind around 10 knots.

Marine
Sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue through
Wednesday. Seas will generally be around 2 to 4 feet. Winds are
expected to pick up from the southwest Wednesday afternoon and
gusts may approach 25 knots, especially later in the day. For
now, keep winds just below SCA criteria but cannot rule out a
few gusts around 25 knots.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms may lead to locally higher
winds and waves.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday... No marine headlines are
anticipated.

Rip currents...

with waves forecast at 2-3 foot and a 6-7 second period, along
with southerly winds 5-10 knots, the risk for dangerous rip
currents is low into tonight. Waves in the surf zone will likely
remain around 2-3 feet.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Wednesday for paz070-071-102-104-
106.

Nj... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Wednesday for njz015-017>019.

De... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Wednesday for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Meola
short term... Meola
long term... Iovino
aviation... Iovino meola
marine... Iovino meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 18 mi60 min SSE 7 G 9.9 78°F 80°F1017.3 hPa (-1.1)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi30 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 77°F 77°F1016.7 hPa72°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 31 mi66 min 81°F 78°F1017 hPa
MHRN6 31 mi60 min SSE 8 G 9.9
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 31 mi60 min SSE 14 G 14 78°F 1016.8 hPa (-1.0)
44091 32 mi30 min 76°F2 ft
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 34 mi60 min 80°F 77°F1017.1 hPa (-0.7)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 41 mi60 min S 4.1 G 6
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 43 mi70 min SSE 7.8 G 7.8 78°F 78°F2 ft1017.4 hPa (-1.0)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 43 mi60 min SSW 11 G 12 79°F 76°F1017.4 hPa (-0.9)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 48 mi84 min SSE 5.1 G 7 84°F 81°F1016.2 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ8 mi64 minSE 310.00 miFair77°F70°F79%1017.5 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ22 mi60 minSE 610.00 miFair79°F73°F82%1016.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW4W5SW3SW4W3W3CalmNW4NW3NW3NE6NE9E8NE9E7E9E7E6SE5SE7SE6SE5SE3
1 day agoSW4E5E4CalmSE5S4CalmSW4SW3SW4W4SW3SW5SW6S6SW6W105SE7S7SW20
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2 days agoSE4S3CalmSE3S3CalmSW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW33SE3S63SE7SE10S8S9
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Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
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Tue -- 04:47 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:11 AM EDT     4.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:08 PM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:23 PM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.13.32.11.20.50.40.81.72.83.74.24.44.33.62.71.81.10.911.72.63.544.3

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:56 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:20 AM EDT     4.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:17 PM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:32 PM EDT     4.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.23.42.31.30.60.40.71.52.63.54.14.34.33.72.81.91.20.911.52.43.33.94.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.