Friday, December4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Grove, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:31PM Friday December 4, 2020 6:52 PM EST (23:52 UTC) Moonrise 9:19PMMoonset 11:43AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 553 Pm Est Fri Dec 4 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm est this evening...
.gale warning in effect from Saturday morning through late Saturday night...
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late this evening, then becoming nw after midnight, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers early this evening, then rain late this evening and overnight. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Sat..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming nw 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Showers. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 9 seconds, becoming mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 6 seconds in the afternoon.
Sat night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Sun..NW winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 4 seconds.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ400 553 Pm Est Fri Dec 4 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure will strengthen across the carolinas overnight while a weak disturbance moves across the great lakes before phasing with the southern low. The resultant system will bring widespread rain and windy conditions to the area into Saturday before the low lifts off to the north and east. A secondary surface low will form off the carolina coast Monday before moving well offshore into Tuesday. High pressure will then build across the eastern u.s. For the second half of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Grove, NJ
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location: 40.21, -73.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 042258 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 558 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will strengthen across the Carolinas overnight while a weak disturbance moves across the Great Lakes before phasing with the southern low. The resultant system will bring widespread rain and windy conditions to the area into Saturday before the low lifts off to the north and east. A secondary surface low will form off the Carolina Coast Monday before moving well offshore into Tuesday. High pressure will then build across the eastern U.S. for the second half of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Forecast mostly on track. Will make minor adjustments to the hourly grids based on latest surface obs and radar images.

Otherwise, a surface low continues to deepen as it ejects from the Tennessee Valley to our south while a shortwave perturbation digs across the Great Lakes. Confidence has grown that these two features will phase just soon enough to keep the track of the developing coastal low too close to the coast for much of any wintry precipitation in our area. Heavy rain and wind will remain the impacts of interest for us this time around.

Rain will continue to build across the region overnight as the southern low moves into the Carolinas. Weak frontogenetic forcing has lead to a persistent rain band across the CWA this afternoon. Temperatures will drop a little overnight into the upper 30s to low 40s.

As the surface low approaches the Delaware Coast Saturday morning, cyclogenesis will really begin thanks to the added PVA of the Great Lakes shortwave trough. The resultant trough will take on a negative tilt, adding to a favorable environmental for storm intensification. The low will also be situated beneath the left jet exit and right jet entrance regions, both of which enhancing dynamic lift. In this case, the progression of the low is too quick with not enough cold air for us to see much frozen precipitation. Thus, an all rain event is forecast, outside of the highest terrain of the Poconos and Sussex County, New Jersey where up to an inch is possible as the storm pulls off to the north and east Saturday evening. The good news is the axis of heaviest rain continues to stay placed east over Delmarva and up the New Jersey Coast. In total, generally 1 and a half inches and less across southeastern Pennsylvania and up to 2 inches along the Coast.

The bulk of the rain looks to move out of the area from southwest to northeast in the early afternoon. A few snow showers across the north as the precipitation ends, but the next concern becomes the gusty winds. As the low deepens, the increasing pressure gradient will lead to strong northwest winds into the afternoon with gusts to 45 mph at times, especially along the coast. With the potential for a few gusts to 50 mph on the barrier islands, went ahead and issued a Wind Advisory in effect from 6 am to 6 pm.

A chilly night Saturday night as cold air spills into the region with lows in the upper 20s to 30s. Watch for any standing water to freeze, though the wind in the afternoon should help dry us out.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. The system from the near term part of the fcst continues to move away. Dry weather is expected but gusty winds and below normal temperatures will keep a December feel to the forecast picture. Lows Sat night will be upper 20s to low 30s most areas with wind chills mostly 5 to 10 degrees cooler. Highs Sunday will be in the 30s N/W and low 40s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. The upper trough across much of the East during the late weekend and into early next week will decrease in amplitude and slowly move east as the week goes on. Overall, we can expect dry weather across the area with a gradual moderation of temperatures. Readings Monday/Tuesday will be below normal with highs in the 40s across the CWA. Even Wednesday, temps will still be a little below normal, but then become above normal by the end of the week with some upper 40s and low 50s for most areas.

In terms of precipitation, a dry week is expected with high pressure prevailing across the region. One thing to watch will be the movement of low pressure across the SE/Carolinas later Mon and into Tue. It could spread some cloudiness to the S/E areas. Right now, it appears the we will remain precip-free across Delmarva and srn NJ, but if the low begins to track closer, some rains may affect these areas.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR CIGs initially, lowering to MVFR by 03Z, then to IFR/LIFR by 06Z. Visibility restrictions will occur due to rain, which will be moderate to heavy at times especially from the PHL metro area south and east after 04z. Light and variable to light northeast winds, becoming north to north-northwest 10-15 knots late. Low confidence on timing details.

Saturday . IFR/MVFR conditions improve to VFR by early afternoon as rain ends from southwest to northeast. Northwest winds 15-20 knots with gusts to 25-35 knots. Low confidence on timing details regarding improvements to VFR.

Outlook .

Saturday night . Fair weather with gusty winds expected.

Sunday thru Wednesday . Mostly Fair weather expected.

MARINE. Tonight . With seas running over 5 feet on the Atlantic coastal waters, but winds diminishing, will go ahead and extend the SCA one more forecast cycle, until 10 pm. Conditions should be sub- SCA thereafter.

Saturday and Saturday night . Gale force wind gusts to 40 knots from the north to northwest through the afternoon and into the overnight. A Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters from 6 am Saturday through 6 am Sunday and for the Delaware Bay from 6 am Saturday through 6 pm. Seas from 6 to 8 feet.

Outlook . Sunday/Sunday night . SCA Sun, then conditions diminishing later Sun. night. Fair weather.

Monday/Monday night . Mostly sub-SCA conditions. Fair.

Tuesday . Near SCA gusts and seas as a storm passes well S/E of the waters. Fair weather expected. We'll have to watch this period of the fcst in case the storm trends more towards our area.

Tue night thru Thu . Mostly sub-SCA. Fair weather.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for NJZ014- 024>026. DE . Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for DEZ004. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ450>455. Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ450>455. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Davis Near Term . Davis/MPS Short Term . O'Hara Long Term . O'Hara Aviation . Gorse/O'Hara Marine . Davis/O'Hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi32 min WSW 9.7 G 14 54°F1013.9 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 18 mi52 min SW 7 G 9.9 46°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 31 mi52 min 45°F 50°F
MHRN6 31 mi52 min SSW 6 G 11
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 31 mi52 min SW 12 G 16 46°F
44091 32 mi26 min 55°F5 ft
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 34 mi52 min 46°F 51°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 41 mi52 min WSW 5.1 G 6 44°F 44°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 43 mi32 min WSW 14 G 18 56°F1014.5 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 43 mi52 min WSW 12 G 17 46°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 48 mi52 min S 16 G 21 47°F 46°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 48 mi76 min Calm G 1.9 44°F 44°F1014.5 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ8 mi56 minN 010.00 miLight Rain45°F41°F86%1014.9 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ22 mi52 minWSW 610.00 miOvercast44°F44°F100%1015.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW7S7SW7SW5SW6SW6S8SW7SW7S8S6S6SW6S7W6S8S6S4S9SW4SW4SW5Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:05 AM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:14 AM EST     4.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:43 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:57 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:09 PM EST     3.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.30.60.40.61.42.53.74.44.74.643.1210.40.20.51.22.233.53.73.6

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:14 AM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:23 AM EST     4.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:43 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:06 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:18 PM EST     3.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.40.70.40.51.22.33.54.34.64.64.13.22.11.10.50.20.41.122.93.43.73.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.