Friday, March5, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Asbury Park, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 5:53PM Friday March 5, 2021 8:27 PM EST (01:27 UTC) Moonrise 1:24AMMoonset 11:16AM Illumination 51% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 806 Pm Est Fri Mar 5 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 4 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 3 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt early in the morning. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the N with a dominant period of 3 seconds.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ400


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Asbury Park, NJ
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location: 40.22, -74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 060111 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 811 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure and dry weather will dominate through the middle of next week, with a warming trend next week. A cold front will approach the region late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Strong 1040+mb high pressure centered over central Canada continues to nose its way southward into the Northern Plains and upper Great lakes. meanwhile, a deep, nearly vertically stacked trough lies over the Northeast and down into the Mid-Atlantic.

A tight northwest pressure gradient lies over the region in between the aforementioned high to the north and west and low pressure over eastern Canada, moving into the Canadian Maritimes. West to northwest winds range from 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible through the overnight.

Several strong shortwaves will rotate around the base of the trough. Although surface moisture is quite limited, surface dew points will creep up during the overnight. This may provide enough moisture for some scattered flurries across the southern Poconos and possibly into the higher elevations of far northwest New Jersey. Not expecting measurable snow.

Winds winds remaining elevated and clouds associated with the shortwave spreading through at least the northern half or so of the region, not expecting widespread radiational cooling conditions to develop. Low temperatures tonight into Saturday morning should even be a few degrees warmer than this morning. Wind chills will not be nearly as low, ranging from the single digits in the southern Poconos, to the teens elsewhere.

Conditions will be quiet on Saturday. Aside from a few lingering flurries in the southern Poconos in the morning, skies will generally be partly to mostly cloudy as that shortwave energy passes through the region. Surface dew points will be creeping up as well, from the low single digits to the mid teens or so.

Highs on Saturday will still be around 10 degrees below normal, topping off in the 30s to around 40, except for the southern Poconos, which should stay in the 20s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Continued quiet and cool weather is expected to end the weekend and start the new week. Mid-level troughing remains anchored over the East Coast on Sunday with surface high pressure to our west. Very little change in the air mass or flow pattern versus Friday or Saturday. Thus, it will be another much colder than average day with high temperatures struggling to break 40 degrees. Winds should not be much of a factor on Sunday with the pressure gradient becoming lighter. This will also contribute to one of the coldest nights of this ongoing cold stretch thanks to better radiational cooling, with lows tanking into the upper 10s and low 20s. Monday will be a transition day, as troughing finally pushes offshore and heights over the East begin to rise in earnest, with the center of surface high pressure shifting to our south. We will be playing catch-up from the cold temperatures Sunday night, and with the air mass transition still not complete, Monday's highs will likely still fall short of average. But they will be much closer than prior days, mainly in the mid 40s.

No precipitation is expected this period with mainly clear skies throughout.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Overview .

The lengthy dry spell continues well into next week. What will change are the temperatures, as a building ridge of high pressure brings the first significant warm-up of the season. In this sort of pattern, it often pays to forecast high temperatures on the warm side of guidance. Low humidities, lack of greenery, increasingly dry ground, and the anomalously warm air mass itself will send the sensible heating flux into overdrive by mid next week, which often yields higher temperatures (and lower dew points) than forecast. The challenge will eventually become placing an end to the warm spell as a cold front to our north will drop southward and yield a large drop in temperatures when it arrives. It looks as though this will happen no sooner than Friday. The most recent (05.12z) cycle of model guidance generally brought this front south a bit faster, and was not quite as robust with building the ridge next week. Still kept high temperatures solidly on the warm side of consensus Tuesday through Thursday with this forecast, but given today's trend did not want to go too much more bullish. Should the ridge build in a little stronger, there is room for those numbers to go up a few more degrees.

Precipitation chances will be closely correlated to the approach of the front. No measurable precipitation is expected through Wednesday. Showery weather associated with the front could arrive as early as Thursday, though more likely will be delayed until Friday.

Given the forecast, the only potential hazard concern over the next week is fire weather, with the length of the ongoing dry spell becoming more troubling with time. However, at this time, it does not appear that the right combination of low humidities and elevated winds will present itself during the upcoming week for fire weather headlines to be needed.

Dailies .

Tuesday-Wednesday . Dry and warm. The air mass continues to gradually warm up during this period as ridging strengthens over the East. Not exceptionally warm by any means, with 850mb temperatures for example only in the +2C to +5C range. Similar values, and consequently much greater positive anomalies, will be found well to our north. But with the clear skies and dry conditions, as inferred above, we will be squeezing out every possible degree of warmth the air mass can support. On Tuesday, that should translate into upper 50s and low 60s, while on Wednesday we should see more in the way of mid 60s. Sea breezes may also be a factor this period, with afternoon cooling possible near the coast.

Thursday-Friday . Uncertainty starts to increase as a cold front draws closer. Some of the newest guidance, referenced above, would have the front arrive as early as late Thursday. But previous cycles would delay it to as late as Saturday, and at this range there is not much telling which is more correct. Feel pretty confident in another warm and dry day Thursday, perhaps the warmest of the stretch if the front stays far enough north. By Friday, there is a better chance for showery weather to approach, though it does not appear we are looking at a significant precipitation event even once the front arrives. Kept Friday's forecast close to a model blend.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt through about 03Z. Some intermittent gusts up to 20 kt possible thereafter. High confidence.

Saturday . VFR. West winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. High confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday night-Sunday night . VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 kt, possibly becoming light and variable Sunday night. High confidence.

Monday-Monday night . VFR. Winds gradually shifting from northwest to west-southwest at 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Tuesday-Wednesday . VFR. Southwest wind 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

MARINE. Strong W-NW winds continue on the waters, but the pressure gradient will relax through the overnight. Will end the SCA at 7am on Saturday morning for Delaware Bay, and at 10 am for the NJ and DE ocean waters. Although winds will gust to 20 kt or so Saturday afternoon, conditions should remain below SCA criteria.

Outlook .

Saturday night-Wednesday . No marine headlines are anticipated. Northwest winds through Sunday night, becoming westerly on Monday and southwesterly for the remainder of the period. Gusts 20 kt or less. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

FIRE WEATHER. After a day of surface dew points in the low single digits and NW winds 15 to 25 mph with 25 to 35 mph gusts, conditions will improve slightly on Saturday.

West winds will gust to 20 to 25 mph, and min RH values will range from 35 to 40 percent. After collaboration with our state fire partners, fuels should be wet enough that a Special Weather Statement is not needed for Saturday.

However, a prolonged dry and breezy period will be in place over the region, so there will be close monitoring for the fire-weather threat into the new work week.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . O'Brien Near Term . MPS/Staarmann Short Term . O'Brien Long Term . O'Brien Aviation . MPS/O'Brien/Staarmann Marine . MPS/O'Brien Fire Weather . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 17 mi58 min W 19 G 23 36°F 1013 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi48 min W 19 G 23 41°F1011.7 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 30 mi58 min 36°F 1012.2 hPa
MHRN6 30 mi58 min W 9.9 G 13
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 30 mi58 min NW 12 G 16 36°F 1012.2 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 33 mi58 min 35°F 38°F1012.5 hPa
44091 34 mi62 min 41°F4 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi58 min WNW 8 G 15 36°F 38°F1014 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 43 mi58 min NNW 16 G 22 35°F 1012.8 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi48 min WNW 21 G 25 40°F1011.6 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi52 min WNW 8.9 G 13 36°F 38°F1013.4 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 48 mi73 min W 14 G 18 34°F 10°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi32 minW 1010.00 miFair33°F4°F29%1013.3 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ21 mi28 minW 1010.00 miFair32°F8°F36%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmN3CalmCalmNW5NW4W4NW4NW3W5W7NW12
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2 days agoSW4SW6S6SW6S5SW6SW8SW9SW8W8SW9SW10
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W5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:59 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:15 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:09 PM EST     4.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:10 PM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:32 PM EST     Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.94.43.32.110.40.10.41.22.23.13.74.13.8321.10.50.20.41.12.13.24.1

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:08 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:15 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:18 PM EST     4.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:19 PM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:32 PM EST     Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.94.53.42.21.20.40.10.3122.93.643.93.22.11.20.60.30.30.91.933.9

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