Tuesday, August4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Asbury Park, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 8:08PM Tuesday August 4, 2020 9:52 AM EDT (13:52 UTC) Moonrise 9:09PMMoonset 6:39AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 944 Am Edt Tue Aug 4 2020
.tornado watch 416 in effect until 4 pm edt this afternoon...
.tropical storm warning in effect...
Rest of today..Tropical storm conditions. SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming S 40 to 50 kt with gusts up to 60 kt this afternoon. Seas around 6 ft, building to 15 ft this afternoon. Scattered tstms. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Seas around 6 ft dominant period 9 seconds, building to 15 ft dominant period 9 seconds this afternoon.
Tonight..Tropical storm conditions possible. SW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas around 13 ft, subsiding to 8 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and scattered tstms early in the evening, then a chance of showers in the late evening and early morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the evening. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..E winds around 5 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of tstms.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of tstms. Light swell in the morning.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms in the morning.
Sat night..E winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 944 Am Edt Tue Aug 4 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Tropical cyclone isaias is expected to move north and reach the mid atlantic later Tuesday. Isaias will move toward new england by Wednesday. High pressure will build in to our north later this week into this weekend while a weak front lingers to our south.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Asbury Park, NJ
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location: 40.22, -74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 041315 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 915 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Tropical Cyclone Isaias is expected to move north and reach the Mid Atlantic later Tuesday. Isaias will move toward New England by Wednesday. High pressure will build in to our north later this week into this weekend while a weak front lingers to our south.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Tornado Watch expanded to include all of New Jersey and most of southeast Pennsylvania.

Significant impacts from Isaias will continue to affect the region today.

Isaias is located just over eastern Virginia and is crossing the Chesapeake Bay. Several tornadoes have occurred across portions of Delmarva already, and this threat continues throughout the day.

Lift across the area is being aided by a strengthening upper jet over western PA / NY as the area is in the favorable right entrance region. There is also low level convergence associated with a lingering weak front across the area. There remains sufficient instability with also very strong low level shear. For this reason, locally damaging winds will be possible and even a couple isolated tornadoes given the strong low level SRH and lowering LCLs. Best chances for this will be for Delmarva, SE PA, and central and southern NJ but this threat will spread north through this morning.

By mid to late morning is when condition deteriorate further as Isaias quickly advances towards the area. Tropical Cyclone Isaias will speed quickly northward in response to a strong jet streak passing through the region. Forecast models and the NHC remain consistent in tracking the storm right through the heart of the CWA near the urban corridor. It will also be starting to undergo extratropical transition as it moves through our region. The main timeframe of concern for the storm's strong winds, heaviest rainfall and other associated impacts is mid/late morning through much of the afternoon before the storm exits by early this evening.

Multiple hazards with Isaias are expected including, but not limited to, fresh water flooding, coastal flooding/storm surge, strong winds and isolated tornadoes. The greatest precipitation amounts are forecast to fall near and especially N/W of the urban corridor. 3-6 inches of rain with locally higher amounts up to 8 inches are expected. This will lead to a high flash flooding threat, especially for the more urbanized areas and portions of Berks County that received an excessive amount of rain Sunday morning. In fact the flooding has the potential to be widespread and significant. There also continues to be increasing confidence widespread damaging winds will be an issue . especially near and to the right of the storms track so basically from the urban corridor S/E. Again, while the system will be starting to lose its tropical characteristics, because of the strong baroclinic zone it will be moving into this won't allow it to really weaken much. Winds will initially be from the E/SE then shift to NW behind the system. Sustained winds of 50+ mph are likely along the coast with gusts potentially exceeding hurricane force (74+ mph). Farther N/W towards the I-95 corridor, widespread gusts of 50 to 60+ mph will be possible. Importantly, it should be noted that because the storm will be starting to become extratropical, the strongest winds/gusts over inland areas could be immediately following the passage of the storms center this afternoon since there will be better mixing in this quadrant. And finally, the tornado threat: The threat for isolated tornadoes is beginning to develop over southern parts of our region during the predawn hours (as described above) and this will spread north as we go through the rest of the night into Tuesday morning. Areas near and S/E of urban corridor will have the best chance for tornadoes.

The trend is for the storm to move through a bit faster than previously forecast so expect it should be exiting by the latter part of this afternoon into this evening. Winds/rain should abate fairly quickly from south to north as this occurs. Otherwise, Tuesday night should then finally feature quieter weather though a secondary front and upper level wave could trigger a few scattered showers.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/. Quieter weather for Wednesday as high pressure starts to build in to our north. This will bring a mainly dry day with seasonable temperatures under partly to mostly sunny skies.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. A fairly typical but overall quieter summer pattern is expected for the long term forecast. The mean upper level trough over the east will lift out but the mid Atlantic region will remain in a fairly moist W/SW flow regime around high pressure ridging over the western Atlantic. This will result in chances for scattered showers/storms most days that will be mainly diurnally driven meaning the best chances will be in the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will be around average for this time of year.

AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . A rapid deterioration in conditions is expected from south to north soon after 12z. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through much of the day in association with Hurricane Isaias. Areas of torrential rainfall with low vsbys are likely. Strong and erratic winds are expected with a sharp change in wind direction expected during the mid afternoon. Gusts may be briefly higher than shown in the TAFs especially near MIV and ACY. While confidence is low in exact details and timing, confidence is high in the overall trend, with hazardous aviation conditions expected for most of the area.

Tonight . Mainly VFR. Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Saturday . Mostly VFR. Scattered SHRA/TSRA possible each afternoon/evening that would result in brief sub- VFR conditions at a given terminal. Fog may develop during the overnight. West winds less than 10 kt on Wednesday, then east to northeast Thursday through Saturday. LGT/VRB at night. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Today and Tonight . Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect as Isaias moves north through North Carolina. Isaias will continue to head north and then northeast and approach the area early this morning. This morning into afternoon sustained winds of 45 to 55 kts appears likely with gusts up to Hurricane force expected. Heavy rain, and isolated waterspouts, this morning into early afternoon will give way to a gradual improving of conditions later this afternoon. Seas will also build to between 12 and 18 feet over the Atlantic coastal waters. A slow decrease in seas down towards 5 feet can be expected by Wednesday morning.

Outlook .

Wednesday morning . Seas may linger near 5 feet on the New Jersey coastal waters but should subside below advisory criteria by midday.

Wednesday afternoon through Saturday . Sub-advisory winds/seas expected through the period. Chances of showers/storms through the period, especially in the afternoon/evening hours.

Rip Currents .

On Tuesday, impacts from Isaias will increase the rip-current risk level to high. In addition, high surf is expected. A rip current risk statement and high surf advisory are in effect for this period, so in conclusion Tuesday will not be a good day to be at the beach.

The rip current risk will likely remain elevated on Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY. Hydro concerns continue early this morning as showers/storms continue ahead of Isaias. Any of these will be capable of producing heavy rain with at least localized flash flooding possible. The heaviest, steadiest rain with the storm will arrive this morning from south to north with more widespread flash flooding becoming a big concern during this time. Most susecptible areas will be near and N/W of the I-95 corridor especially since places such as in Berks County have received so much rainfall recently. With Isaias, 3 to 6 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts are expected. Flooding could be widespread and significant.

In addition to flash flooding, river flooding is also expected. But with a more consolidated area of rainfall across PA, the threat across NJ including the Passaic and Raritan basins has lessened. The latest MARFC forecast still has about 15 forecast points above Action Stage and 6 at or above Flood Stage, including, Philadelphia, Norristown, and Pottstown on the Schuylkill, Graterford on Perkiomen Creek, Langhorne on Neshaminy Creek, and Chadds Ford and Wilmington on the Brandywine. The latest forecast has these points cresting later today or tonight. With such a large swath of precipitation expected along and west of the I95 corridor, most basins in this area will see at least some threat. That said, the Delaware River is expected to remain within its banks.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The coastal flooding impacts from Isaias remain very uncertain at this time. Models notoriously handle fast-moving, intense cyclones poorly in our area, as the short duration of onshore flow competes with the strength of the winds. These competing impacts and sensitivities are not well understood from a modeling standpoint, leading to rather large spread in the model guidance.

Coastal flooding impacts are expected across the area today, with four different regions we will be monitoring. The first, and potentially most significant, is for the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay, where surge will likely move northward during the day. What is unclear, however, is the strength of this surge. Model guidance is particularly poor for these areas, and the output the past couple of days seems unrealistically low. However, the extent of impacts remains quite unclear. At this point, there is potential for moderate flooding, which requires continuation of the coastal flood warning. However, it is possible impacts will be less significant/widespread. We will likely not have a better idea of impacts until after daybreak, when gauges in lower Chesapeake Bay begin to respond.

The second area is Delaware Bay. The real question here will be the timing of the surge relative to the astronomical high tide. With guidance trending a little faster with the surge, the timing looks a little less favorable for coincidence of peak surge and astronomical high tide for the Delaware Bay sites. Nevertheless, the strength of southeast winds in advance of Isaias may compensate much more readily than models suggest. A coastal flood advisory has been issued here for the entire day given the uncertainty of peak surge timing.

The third area is the tidal Delaware River. Here, confidence is increasing that minor flooding will occur during the afternoon, as predecessor southeast winds will likely combine with freshwater runoff to lead to a period of tidal flooding from early afternoon to early evening. As with Delaware Bay, confidence is not particularly high on exact timing of flooding, so have issued a coastal flood advisory for a broader period of time than normal (11 am to 8 pm).

The fourth area is the Atlantic coast. As with Delaware Bay, timing of the strongest surge appears to occur between astronomical high tides. However, the strength of onshore flow and exacerbating behavior of wave runup will likely produce areas of flooding. Of particular concern is back bays that are susceptible to southeast flow, which can act to trap water. Barnegat Bay and Little Assawoman Bay are particularly susceptible in these regimes, and these areas may experience more widespread/significant flooding. Confidence is pretty low in general for the coast, but given the very strong onshore flow expected today, suspect at least some impacts in the especially vulnerable spots are likely.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park Pennsylvania (Station WNG-704) remains off the air.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Flash Flood Watch through this evening for PAZ054-055-060>062- 070-071-101>106. Tropical Storm Warning for PAZ070-071-101>106. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070- 071-106. NJ . Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NJZ001-007>010- 012>027. Tropical Storm Warning for NJZ001-007>010-012>027. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ016- 021-023-024. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NJZ014-024>026. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ012>014- 020-022-025>027. High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ014- 024>026. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ017>019. DE . Flash Flood Watch through this evening for DEZ001>004. Tropical Storm Warning for DEZ001>004. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001>004. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for DEZ004. High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for DEZ004. MD . Flash Flood Watch through this evening for MDZ008-012-015-019- 020. Tropical Storm Warning for MDZ008-012-015-019-020. Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ008-012- 015-019-020. MARINE . Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ430-431-450>455.

Synopsis . Fitzsimmons Near Term . Fitzsimmons/MPS Short Term . Fitzsimmons Long Term . Fitzsimmons/MPS Aviation . O'Brien Marine . CMS Hydrology . WFO PHI Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 17 mi53 min SE 8.9 G 15 77°F 1013.2 hPa (-1.9)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi33 min SE 18 G 21 73°F1012.2 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 30 mi53 min 78°F 1012.7 hPa (-2.3)
MHRN6 30 mi53 min ESE 13 G 19
44091 33 mi27 min 80°F5 ft
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 33 mi53 min 79°F 1013.1 hPa (-2.0)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi53 min SE 7 G 12 78°F 1011.1 hPa (-2.8)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 43 mi53 min S 11 G 14 79°F 1014.1 hPa (-2.0)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi33 min SE 21 G 25 79°F1013 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi77 min ESE 8 G 11 77°F 85°F1010.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 48 mi53 min ESE 9.7 G 16 76°F 76°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi57 minSE 10 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F0°F%1012.8 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ21 mi1.8 hrsSSE 1210.00 miOvercast78°F72°F84%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:28 AM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:35 AM EDT     4.60 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:34 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:49 PM EDT     5.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.80.6-0.1-0.10.61.72.93.94.54.53.93210.30.30.92.13.34.45.25.44.93.8

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:37 AM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:44 AM EDT     4.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:43 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:58 PM EDT     5.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.90.8-0-0.10.51.52.73.74.44.543.12.11.10.40.20.81.93.14.255.354

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.