Friday, August7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Camp Hill, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 8:16PM Friday August 7, 2020 2:59 PM EDT (18:59 UTC) Moonrise 9:40PMMoonset 8:55AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 137 Pm Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
This afternoon..E winds 10 kt. Waves flat. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tonight..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Numerous showers and scattered tstms.
Sat..NE winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 137 Pm Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A stationary boundary will linger near the region and our marine areas this afternoon. This will result in chances for showers and Thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Camp Hill , PA
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location: 40.24, -76.93     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 071756 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 156 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. Showers and thunderstorms are likely across most of central PA today. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with the greatest risk of flash flooding in the lower Susquehanna Valley. The overall coverage and probability of showers and storms will trend lower (drier) through the weekend with temperatures climbing 5 to 10 degrees above average into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Again, overall forecast is on track. FF threat has ramped up, esp for location e & n of State College. Major wave rounding the base of the upper trough is driving deep convection already this morning. That is usually a bad sign for Central PA. Heavy rain already fallen over the NE with the supercell that has tracked through from Lamar to nrn Schuylkill county has produced very heavy rain (and lots of wind damage).

Interestingly, the damage from the supercell did not begin until the storm got to the spot where morning mixing and clearing had just begun minutes before. But, just that little bit of mixing likely allowed the strong wind down to the sfc. The low crud over the previous length of it's path probably kept it elevated, despite all the parameters for svr.

FF and svr threat (SE counties recently added to the MRGL risk for svr) should be waning as we go through the late afternoon and evening as this wave pushes to the east. Have padded mentions of svr and FFing for a few hours after that.

Prev . Overall forecast remains on track. Current storm tracking along I-80 corridor has been persistent/strong and recently ramped its hail core to 1-2 inches. SPC may be adding a portion of the CWA to a MRGL risk with the 13Z update.

Primary focus today will be on heavy rain/FF potential. WPC has upgraded the lower Susquehanna Valley to a SLGT risk ERO (level 2 out of 4). Several factors will contribute to heavy rain/FF threat in this area including but not limited to above normal moisture/PW, slow storm motions/cell training/mergers, and wet antecedent conditions. The dayshift should consider a short- fused FF watch if hires models remain bullish with +RA signal. Scattered to numerous afternoon/evening showers and storms should fade and shift eastward tonight into early Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Increasing influence of high pressure sfc and aloft should spell a downward trend in diurnal convection to start the weekend. Pcpn probs derived from a blend of NBM and HREF are generally AOB 20% and focused across the eastern 1/2 to 1/3 of the CTP CWA. MaxT24hourChange will be about +2 to +6 degrees warmer vs. Friday. High confidence in dry conditions tomorrow night with mainly clear skies and light winds suggesting valley fog is possible into AM Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Fair weather should prevail on Sunday.

The longer term will feature a return of warmer weather, with temperatures generally 5-10 degrees above average from Mon through Wed as an upper ridge builds over the Eastern US. Dewpoints climb back to the upper 60s and 70s for Tue and Wed, and perhaps even the mid 70s in the Lower Susq. Combined with temps in the upper 80s to near 90, this would mean Heat Index values take a run at the upper 90s to near 100 in the Lower Susq, so long as the low level moisture doesn't mix out in the afternoon and cause the dewpoint to drop. Continued to knock down afternoon dewpoints from NBM guidance across central and northwestern zones Mon and Wed afternoon, where it looks like drier air will mix down.

Weak forcing will favor isolated, pulse thunderstorms on Monday, mainly in the northwest. A cold front sagging south on Tuesday and Wednesday, combined with increasing humidity, should trigger more numerous showers and thunderstorms both days. Guidance seems to indicate the cold front may stall as it moves through PA, resulting in at least one more day of unsettled weather on Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 18z update . Showers and thunderstorms will be most numerous this afternoon/early evening in the vicinity of KMDT and KLNS, where the most persistent restrictions are anticipated.

Although showers/storms could briefly impact other central PA terminal sites, they would be short-lived if they occurred, with mostly VFR foreseen.

Tonight, we anticipate widespread low stratus clouds and areas of fog to form, especially after 03-06z. IFR conditions are probable at all terminal sites for at least several hours.

Saturday, low clouds and fog are expected to lift by 13-15z, with VFR thereafter.

E-SE surface winds of 5-8 kt are expected this afternoon at KMDT and KLNS, with variable 5 kt or less elsewhere. Winds will be light overnight, then turn W-NW by midday Saturday at 5-8 kt.

Outlook .

Sun-Mon . Mainly VFR. Patchy low clouds and fog possible early in the morning.

Tue-Wed . Increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms, along with associated restrictions.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ019-027-028-036- 041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

SYNOPSIS . Steinbugl NEAR TERM . Dangelo/Steinbugl SHORT TERM . DeVoir/Dangelo LONG TERM . Colbert/Banghoff AVIATION . Jurewicz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 70 mi66 min 81°F 82°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 74 mi66 min 79°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 77 mi66 min 81°F 83°F

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harrisburg, Capital City Airport, PA4 mi2.1 hrsNE 73.00 miLight Rain76°F71°F85%1019.1 hPa
Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport, PA9 mi64 minE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F71°F88%1018.7 hPa
York, York Airport, PA22 mi67 minVar 310.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F69°F63%1018.4 hPa
Muir Army Air Field / Indiantown, PA24 mi64 minENE 37.00 miLight Rain Thunderstorm in Vicinity71°F67°F91%1019.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCXY

Wind History from CXY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE43E3E8E8E5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4E3CalmE5E6E5E5E6E7NE7NE7NE7
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W11W9SW7SW7SW3NW4CalmCalmW3SW3SW3CalmW4CalmW4W344E3E76NE8E9
2 days agoW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:46 AM EDT     2.79 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:41 AM EDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:59 PM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:37 PM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.72.82.62.321.61.31.11.11.41.92.533.23.12.82.421.51.2111.3

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2)
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:53 AM EDT     2.33 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:13 AM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:06 PM EDT     2.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:09 PM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.32.21.91.61.310.911.21.72.22.52.72.62.421.61.20.90.80.91.21.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for State College, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station State College, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.