Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:58 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 330 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Rest of this afternoon - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon night - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Wed - NW winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming e. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 330 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure building across the area through Monday will bring very warm temperatures and dry conditions. A cold front crosses the waters Tuesday into Wednesday bringing chances for showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure briefly returns Thursday before another front crosses later in the workweek. Small craft advisories may be needed at times through Tuesday.

FXUS61 KCTP 281928 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 328 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
-Showers and a few thunderstorms possible today, mainly across the north.

-A warm week. With highs in the 70s and 80s, close to record highs on Monday.

-Cold fronts Tuesday and Friday-Saturday bring showers and storms. Potential for a few heavy downpours.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Upper level ridge line across our eastern counties. As expected, activity on the radar across the north, but not across the south. Rather warm for late April, and with dewpts in the 50s, still could see a little more in the way of development to the south over the next few hours. At the current time, band of showers with brief heavy downpours just forming near or just south of route 6. HRRR not showing anything real organized with this.

No real change to the temperature fcst tonight.

Noontime update.

Still some lower CIGS over the Susquehanna Valley, but obs show these lower clouds breaking up.

Main change so far was to trim pops back some, as area of convection over Lake Erie is moving east, but at the same time lifting a bit to the north. Thus hard to see much for central and southern sections of central PA this aft.

More information below.

Some showers and perhaps a few storms today, mainly across the north. Upper level ridge will limit activity further south.

Earlier discussion below.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Any shower activity should end this evening, as temperatures cool back down.

Some minor changes to the temperatures tonight into Monday, but no big changes.

Hard to see much in the way of showers and storms on Monday, overall pattern similar to what we had today.

Guidance not showing a lot of fog tonight.

High temperatures on Monday will be close to records.

Monday night will be similar to tonight with temperatures falling near the dewpoint temperature (upper 50s to low 60s).
Some increasing high clouds will begin streaming in overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. A shower could begin affecting far northwest PA by daybreak, but dry conditions are likely for the rest of the area.

The main chance for showers will be later on Tuesday, see long term section below.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
An unsettled pattern is expected to continue into Tuesday as low pressure from the Central Plains moves northwest of the area, bringing a weak sfc cold front across the area during the morning and early afternoon hours. Anomalously warm temperatures for the end of April are expected with MaxTs in portions of SE PA making another run towards the 80-85F range with RHs in the 40-50% range during the afternoon hours. Some potential cloud cover during the early afternoon hours brings some uncertainty into MaxTs on Tuesday but guidance suggests some clearing which will allow for enhanced surface warming.

Showers are expected at the onset Tuesday morning across NW PA with enough elevated instability later in the afternoon/evening for potential thunderstorms further to the south and east.
Deterministic guidance has continued to indicate a secondary area of sfc low pressure forming along the DelMarVa before quickly racing off to the northeast with good agreement and will retain chances of precipitation through Wednesday morning.
Showers become more scattered in nature Wednesday afternoon with dry conditions expected by the evening hours as an upper-level ridge takes hold over the region.

Model solutions have started to latch onto a stronger upper- level ridge solution, providing fair weather on Thursday and into the first half Friday. It is of note that a slightly weaker shortwave could allow for some shower activity, but given successive runs of guidance brining about a stronger shortwave, have opted to cut PoPs out from this timeframe.

A low-pressure stationed over the Great Lakes will bring about the next sfc cold front across central PA later on Friday and throughout the day on Saturday. There is fairly good agreement with deterministic model guidance in regards to precipitation associated with the frontal passage, although timing remains the biggest uncertainty at this time. This cold frontal passage will also bring about a return to seasonable temperatures for the beginning of May.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions over the area as of mid afternoon. Some showers just forming across the north as I type this. A shower could push southeast to IPT, but I took thunder out of IPT earlier when I sent the 18Z package.

Any showers and isolated storms should quickly weaken this evening.

Potential for widespread fog and low CIGS much lower tonight than last night.

Monday should feature some CU development and mainly dry conditions. Highest chance of showers across the north and west.

More in the way of showers and storms possible later Tuesday, as a cold front moves into the area.

Outlook...

Tue...Showers and storms, mainly late. Impacts possible.

Wed...Early AM low cigs possible N Mtns.

Thu...No sig wx expected.

Fri...A chance of showers and storms.

CLIMATE
With an early August sun angle in place, this will help temperatures soar into the mid and upper 80s on Monday over the Susquehanna Valley. Record high temperatures are in the mid 80s and these could be challenged.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:14 AM EDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:28 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:23 PM EDT     3.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:00 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:21 AM EDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:00 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:30 PM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:32 PM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2), Tide feet

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