Sunday, April18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Monmouth Beach, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 7:39PM Sunday April 18, 2021 5:22 PM EDT (21:22 UTC) Moonrise 10:15AMMoonset 1:06AM Illumination 44% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 404 Pm Edt Sun Apr 18 2021
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of showers in the afternoon. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of showers early in the evening. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers with tstms likely in the afternoon.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers with tstms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 404 Pm Edt Sun Apr 18 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. An upper level disturbance will push east across the mid- atlantic region Monday afternoon with a weak cold front crossing the region in its wake. A strong surface low developing in the middle mississippi valley on Tuesday will lift northeast to the northeast on Wednesday. A strong cold front will sweep off the eastern seaboard by Wednesday night. High pressure will build into the eastern and southern u.s. To close the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monmouth Beach , NJ
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location: 40.33, -74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 181949 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 349 PM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021

SYNOPSIS. An upper level disturbance will push east across the Mid- Atlantic region Monday afternoon with a weak cold front crossing the region in its wake. A strong surface low developing in the middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday will lift northeast to the Northeast on Wednesday. A strong cold front will sweep off the Eastern Seaboard by Wednesday night. High pressure will build into the eastern and southern U.S. to close the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. Weak troughiness lies just north of the Fall Line, cutting through northern New Jersey and through the Lehigh Valley. Some shortwave energy over eastern Pennsylvania and down into southern New Jersey will lift to the north and east tonight. As these two weak system interact, will see some showers developing this evening and tonight with one area currently beginning to develop over the northern half of the forecast area and another area developing over Delmarva later tonight as a weak warm front lifts to the north.

Important to note that it is quite dry over the region. Surface dew points are generally in the 30s and dew point depressions are on the order of 20-25 degrees. KDIX radar indicating some spotty returns to the north, but not much, if any, precip is reaching the ground. That is owed to how dry it is, as precip is evaporating before it reaches the ground. Going into the evening, some more showers should develop, but the 12Z NAM is probably a bit too high in terms of QPF. The 12Z GFS and the 12Z ECMWF do not show as much.

Going into tonight, any showers/sprinkles taper off over the northern zones, and then another area of showers is possible over Delmarva. Will keep PoPs capped at slight chance, and QPF capped at minimal amounts due to a lack of surface moisture.

Lows tonight will generally be in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/. A rather unsettled day on tap for Monday. The base of a mid-level trough will pass through the Tennessee Valley and into the Mid- Atlantic, and strong shortwave energy will pass through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will be fairly warm, running several degrees above normal with highs in the 60s to around 70. It will not be overly humid, as surface dewpoints will be in the 40s. However, due to diurnal heating, SB CAPE values will build to 400-600 J/kg and MU CAPE values will rage from 500-1000 J/kg, with the highest values over Delmarva and the western portions of the Delaware Valley. There is a chance for showers with the passage of the trough and shortwave combo, but will cap thunder chances at slight chance. The Storm Prediction Center has a general thunder risk. So not anticipating a severe weather outbreak, but a few rumbles of thunder are possible. PWATs are generally 1/2-3/4 inch, so not expecting heavy rain.

Warm front approaches Monday night and WAA will be underway on Tuesday as high pressure passes off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Pressure gradient tightens up between high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast and high pressure building into the Northern and Central Plains. Southwest winds will increase to 15-20 mph with occasional 25 mph gusts. But highs on Tuesday will be a good 8-10 degrees above normal, topping off in the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. The long term period will feature a strong system affecting the region Wednesday, with much colder and breezy conditions Thursday and Friday.

Tuesday evening, a longwave trough axis will be centered just west of the Ohio River Valley with a deepening area of low pressure just west of the Great Lakes region. This area of PV will start to congeal and close off across northern MI with surface cyclogenesis occurring across the OH/ KY/ WV border. By Wednesday morning, surface low pressure is forecast to be near west/central PA with rapid deepening occuring. This quick strengthening will be aided by a subtle, but noticeable, dual jet structure. A stronger subtropical jet will located across AL/ MS/ GA/ SC, while the weaker northern stream jet will be centered over WV/ PA/ NY and southeastern Canada. This coupling of the LFQ and RRQ will allow for widespread precipitation to be ongoing Wednesday morning over west/central PA. Towards our area, there are signs that some precipitation might form along the coast Wednesday morning (weak surface convergence), while another area of precipitation will be clipping our western zones due to a weak shortwave embedded in the southwest flow out ahead of the primary wave. There will be a brief break in the precipitation then as the primary upper level low continues to deepen and approach the area from the west. The upper level lift with this system will be strong with 500 mb height falls of ~150 m, coupled jet structure, and diffluent flow forecast.

As the deepening continue late Wednesday morning, the LLJ and WAA will intensify with rich theta-e air surging northeast. We will likely quickly destabilize. Cloud layer mean wind ahead of this system will be from the southwest at 50 kts with a southwest to northeast oriented cold front quickly approaching from the west. The boundary- relative storm motion though will likely be near zero. Cloud-layer shear values are also forecast to be around 40 to 50 kts and parallel to the boundary. The anvil- level storm-relative flow is more oblique to the boundary, but given all of the above a linear feature appears likely Wednesday. This primary threat with a linear convective mode would be damaging wind gusts. The main forecast uncertainty here remains the timing of the cold front. The GFS continues to be faster than the NAM and ECMWF which would favor less destabilization (the GFS pushes the cold front through the region Wednesday morning while Wednesday afternoon is favored by the NAM and ECMWF). Have kept the forecast trended towards the slower NAM and ECMWF solutions.

Wednesday evening, the cold front will sweep off the coast with strong CAA commencing. If precipitation lingers in the Poconos, we could see some snow showers before precipitation ceases. Temperatures and dewpoints quickly fall off Wednesday night with wind gusts at or near wind advisory criteria. Guidance usually under forecasts wind gusts in this setup and have trended the forecast to the NBM 90th percentile. The other concern will be the chance of a freeze Thursday morning across the Lehigh Valley. In general, the first night right after a cold frontal passage is usually not as cold as guidance would indicate thanks to the elevated PGF and therefore winds. Either way though, we will continue to monitor the freeze potential.

During the day Thursday, CAA will continue with low level lapse rates remaining steep. Momentum transfer techniques still support wind gusts in the 30 to 40 MPH range with wrap around snow showers possible in the southern Poconos. Thursday night into Friday the upper level low pressure will pull east with temperatures rebounding into the 60s by Friday afternoon. Dry conditions are expected Friday.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR. Isolated -SHRA possible, but impacts at terminals should be minimal, as VSBY restrictions not expected. W-NW winds around 10 kt with ocnl gusts to 20 kt into this evening, becoming LGT/VRB tonight. High confidence.

Monday . Overall, VFR. Scattered SHRA with isolated TSRA possible in the afternoon with MVFR conditions possible. SW winds less than 10 kt, but afternoon sea breezes at KACY/KMIV will turn winds S in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Monday night . VFR. SW winds 5 kt or less. High confidence.

Tuesday . VFR. SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. High confidence.

Tuesday night . Restrictions possible with a chance of showers (with the precipitation mainly to the west/north of PHL). South winds up to 10 kt. Low confidence.

Wednesday . Showers and thunderstorms appear likely with restrictions expected at times. Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with higher gusts. Winds may be stronger and erratic in proximity to storms. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night . Restrictions ending quickly. Winds becoming west to northwest 10 to 20 kt with higher gusts. Moderate confidence.

Thursday . Mainly VFR with northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts 30+ kt likely. High confidence.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions tonight through Monday. Scattered afternoon showers with isolated thunderstorms may result in brief VSBY restrictions as well as isolated lightning strikes. Seas generally at or below 3 feet.

Outlook .

Monday through Tuesday night . Sub-advisory conditions expected. A chance of showers on Monday.

Wednesday . Advisory conditions possible. A good chance of showers and storms, with erratic winds/waves in their proximity.

Wednesday night and Thursday . Advisory conditions likely, with northwest gales possible on Thursday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Haines Near Term . MPS Short Term . MPS Long Term . Haines Aviation . Haines/MPS Marine . Haines/MPS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 9 mi53 min SSE 12 G 15 54°F 1009.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 16 mi33 min S 14 G 16 47°F2 ft1009.2 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 23 mi53 min 61°F 54°F1008.8 hPa
MHRN6 23 mi53 min W 7 G 8.9
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 23 mi53 min SSE 9.9 G 11 56°F 1009 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 26 mi53 min 56°F 51°F1009.6 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 35 mi53 min SW 11 G 13 54°F 1009.9 hPa
44091 41 mi27 min 49°F2 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi53 min WNW 7 G 8.9 61°F 53°F1010 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 45 mi33 min SSW 12 G 14 48°F2 ft1009.5 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 49 mi47 min W 5.1 G 7 61°F 54°F1009.2 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi27 minSE 510.00 miOvercast57°F44°F62%1010.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW4NW5W5W4W5W3W4W5W4W5W4W4W4W4NW86W7
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Tide / Current Tables for Gooseneck Point, bridge, New Jersey
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Gooseneck Point
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Sun -- 01:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:26 AM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:31 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:26 PM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:15 PM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.32.52.52.421.510.70.50.50.71.21.61.92.12.11.91.510.80.60.71

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current (2)
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:13 AM EDT     -1.61 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:20 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:21 PM EDT     1.02 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:11 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:20 PM EDT     -1.31 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:03 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.20.7-0.1-0.9-1.4-1.6-1.5-1.1-0.7-0.20.510.90.70.1-0.6-1.1-1.3-1.3-0.9-0.5-00.6

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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