Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Monmouth Beach, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 7:49PM Monday August 19, 2019 5:08 PM EDT (21:08 UTC) Moonrise 10:07PMMoonset 9:50AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 402 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt late this evening and early morning, then becoming nw late. Seas around 3 ft until early morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Scattered showers and tstms early this evening, then isolated showers and tstms late this evening.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the late morning and afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 402 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A surface trough will remain across the mid-atlantic region through the middle of the week. A weak cold front is expected to drop down across the region tonight, before stalling near the area through late Tuesday. This front may return northward Wednesday, before a stronger cold front moves into the region Wednesday night. This front will slowly move across the area through Thursday as low pressure tracks along it. High pressure then builds across the northeast Saturday, then offshore later Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monmouth Beach , NJ
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 40.33, -74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kphi 192002
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
402 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
A weak cold front will move into the region tonight. The front
stalls near our area through Tuesday before moving northward on
Wednesday. A stronger cold front will drop down into the area
Wednesday night and then slowly sag southward through Thursday. Low
pressure will track along the slow moving front on Thursday. High
pressure will then build down from the northwest on Friday and
persist through the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
A short wave trough tracking across southern quebec canada and new
england into this evening will glance our northern zones. Meanwhile,
a surface trough along with a sea breeze boundary is present across
new jersey into delmarva. A mesoscale analysis shows up to 3000 j kg
of MLCAPE from the i-95 corridor south and east, with less
instability northwestward. Visible satellite imagery this afternoon
shows the cumulus field the most robust within the thermal trough
and instability axis. Some additional convection will develop in
spots into this evening before weakening occurs. The overall
coverage however is less certain still given the overall weaker
forcing with a southern extent. Due to the combination of strong
instability and dcape up to 1100 j kg, stronger cores will exhibit
downbursts due to water-loaded downdrafts and therefore a few severe
thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts. Localized backbuilding east
of the sea breeze will also result in a local flash flood threat due
to high rainfall rates. Some hail will also occur in the stronger
updraft cores.

A hot and rather humid airmass in progress this afternoon with heat
indices in the 95-106 degree range across many areas. The heat
advisory that surrounds the i-95 corridor one will continue through
7 pm this evening.

As we go through the night, a weak cold front is forecast to settle
into our area from the northwest. This should take the dew points
down a little mainly across the northern areas. There does not
appear to be much in the way of forcing overnight, therefore opted
to go dry with less cloud cover. Some local fog and low clouds
cannot be ruled out again especially along and south of the surface
front where dew points are higher.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
The flow aloft Tuesday is forecast to be more zonal, however a short
wave trough which looks to be convectively enhanced is forecast to
be approaching the upper ohio valley later in the afternoon. This is
pretty much tracking along a west to east weak cold front that
should become nearly stationary across our area. This will result in
some cooling and also lowering dew points along and north of it,
however how far south the lowered dew points get is more uncertain.

As a result for now, we will continue with the heat advisory Tuesday
for the urban i-95 corridor from trenton to philadelphia to
wilmington however this is of lower confidence given much of the
guidance is cooler (some lower dew points).

For the convective potential, some showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop mainly from mid-afternoon onward near and south
of the stalled front. There looks to be a light northeast to
southeast surface flow, and this may help to keep much of the
convective development south and just west of our area for much of
the day. As a result, made some adjustments to the pops to reflect
this idea. The severe thunderstorm risk looks low as it appears we
would have to wait for any organized storms to arrive from the west.

The SPC currently has a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms from
berks county southward to portions of delaware and marylands eastern
shore.

For Tuesday night, an incoming short wave trough that looks to be
convectively enhanced will near closer. Some downstream warm air
advection and also isentropic lift over a lingering surface front
may help so develop or sustain some convection. The chance of this
looks to be the highest across the northern zones and the higher
pops were placed there. Low temperatures are mainly a continuity and
mos blend.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Unsettled pattern continues through Thursday before high pressure
builds in across the eastern us.

On Wednesday, the back door frontal boundary that stalls near the
area Tuesday is forecast to return northward as a warm front early
in the day. Some showers will be possible early in the day as the
front lifts northward, but the better chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be during the afternoon as a couple of short
waves vorticity impulses aloft interact with a lee-side thermal
trough that remains across the mid-atlantic region. It will remain
quite warm and humid, with temperatures several degrees above normal
and dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s, so there will remain a
fair amount of instability across the area with CAPE values reaching
1,500-2,000 j kg. Bulk shear is not overly impressive at 25 to 30
knots as mid level winds are fairly weak. Nevertheless, there will
remain a chance for some of the strongest updrafts to produce
locally damaging winds and large hail. SPC has our area outlined in
a marginal risk for severe weather. Another concern on Wednesday
will be the threat for heavy rainfall. Pw values reach 1.75-2.00
inches and storm motions do not appear to be very fast so any
thunderstorms will likely be efficient rain producing storms and
could cause flooding concerns. The shower and thunderstorm activity
is expected to diminish overnight Wednesday as daytime instability
wanes and the short wave vorticity impulses from the afternoon
passes eastward.

A cold front is forecast to move into the area late Wednesday night
into early Thursday, before sliding eastward through the day. As the
day wears on, instability will build ahead of the cold front, while
shear begins to increase. There will be a chance for some strong
thunderstorms to develop, which could produce strong winds and hail.

Heavy rain will continue to be a concern as pw values increase to 2+
inches, so any storms that develop will likely be efficient rain
producing storms. The storms will likely continue for eastern areas
as the front progresses eastward, but as the front moves offshore,
showers and thunderstorms will come to an end.

The forecast for Friday remains uncertain as differences continue
between the GFS and ecmwf. The GFS pushes the front far enough south
to keep the area dry, while the ECMWF has the front stalling just to
our south with an area of low pressure moving along the boundary.

This would bring a period of rainfall to much of the area Friday.

The previous model run of the ECMWF had the front and low, but not
as far north but still had some precipitation for parts of the area.

For now, we will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms for the
southern half of the area due to the uncertainty.

Saturday through Monday are expected to stay dry. High pressure
builds across the northeast and mid-atlantic region on Saturday,
then builds to our northeast on Sunday and moves offshore on Monday.

As the high builds offshore, there may be an increase in cloud
cover, but conditions are expected to remain dry across the
forecast area.

Temperatures for Friday through Monday are expected to be below
normal and dewpoints will be much lower than the next few days.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of this afternoon...VFR overall. Some showers and thunderstorms
around, which will result in local MVFR ifr conditions and strong
wind gusts for a brief time. Given low enough coverage, continued
with a vcts mention. Southwesterly winds 5-10 knots, but more south
at acy and perhaps westerly at rdg and abe.

Tonight...VFR outside of any lingering showers and thunderstorms
this evening, then some local stratus and or fog cannot be ruled out
overnight. Light westerly winds or light and variable calm.

Tuesday... Local MVFR early due to possible fog, otherwiseVFR. Some
showers and thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon into the
overnight, resulting in temporary MVFR ifr conditions. Light winds
becoming northeast to east then southeast 4-8 knots during Tuesday,
then becoming light and variable at night.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Wednesday night... GenerallyVFR conditions
expected. MVFR or lower possible in showers and thunderstorms. South-
southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots
possible.

Thursday through Thursday night... GenerallyVFR conditions expected.

MVFR or lower possible in showers and thunderstorms. West-southwest
winds around 5 to 10 knot veering to the west-northwest later in the
day and overnight behind a cold front. Winds could gust 15 to 20
knots behind the cold front overnight at times.

Friday...VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds around 5 to 10
knots may gust 15 to 20 knots at times.

Saturday...VFR conditions expected. Northerly winds less than 10
knots.

Marine
The conditions are expected to remain below small craft advisory
criteria through Tuesday night. A wind shift from southerly to
northeast and east will occur later tonight into Tuesday, before
shifting southeasterly. Some thunderstorms into this evening will
produce locally strong winds greater than 40 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Wednesday night... Conditions expected to remain
below advisory levels, although winds could gust around 20 knots and
seas approach 4 to near 5 feet at times.

Thursday through Thursday night... There is a chance winds and waves
may approach advisory levels for the southern new jersey and
delaware coastal waters Thursday into Thursday night. The rest of
the waters are expected to remain below advisory levels.

Friday through Saturday... Conditions are expected to be below
advisory levels on Friday and Saturday..

Rip currents...

a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents continues
through tonight with southerly winds and waves around 2 feet in the
surf zone.

For Tuesday, a low risk is anticipated once again despite a
northeast wind becoming east to southeast.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for paz060>062-101-
103-105.

Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Tuesday for paz070-071-102-104-
106.

Nj... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for njz007>010-012-
013-020-027.

Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Tuesday for njz015-017>019.

De... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Tuesday for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Gorse
short term... Gorse
long term... Robertson meola
aviation... Gorse robertson meola
marine... Gorse robertson meola


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 9 mi50 min NNE 15 G 23 79°F 78°F1013.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 16 mi38 min S 14 G 19 78°F 75°F1013 hPa72°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 23 mi56 min 87°F 78°F1013.5 hPa
MHRN6 23 mi50 min SSE 9.9 G 15
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 23 mi50 min S 15 G 21 80°F 1013.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 26 mi50 min 83°F 76°F1013.5 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 35 mi50 min SSW 19 G 21 82°F 74°F1013.4 hPa
44091 40 mi38 min 76°F3 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi50 min SSE 8 G 22
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 45 mi78 min SSW 14 G 18 78°F 76°F2 ft1014.7 hPa (-1.2)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 49 mi92 min W 2.9 G 8.9 89°F 80°F1013.4 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
Last
24hr
SE11
G14
S12
SW9
SW7
W9
N7
G11
--
S4
SE4
SE6
SW5
S8
SW9
W6
SW6
W8
SW3
W4
NW4
W4
SE6
S9
SE8
G11
SE13
G17
1 day
ago
SE10
SE9
G14
SE9
SE6
G11
E4
SE5
SE5
SE4
S6
E4
NE1
SE1
E1
SE3
SE3
SE3
S4
S4
SW3
W1
G4
E6
SE5
G9
SE8
S11
G15
2 days
ago
SE12
SE10
SE8
SE8
G11
SE6
G10
E7
G10
E5
S3
G7
SE7
G10
E5
E4
NE4
E4
E5
E4
E4
G8
E6
E7
G10
E8
E5
S4
E7
SE10

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi2.2 hrsSE 710.00 miOvercast86°F77°F75%1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
Last 24hrS9
G16
SW5SW3SW4SW4E5E4CalmSE5S4CalmSW4SW3SW4W4SW3SW5SW6S6SW6W105SE7S7
1 day agoE8E6SE4SE4SE4S3CalmSE3S3CalmSW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW33SE3S63SE7SE10S8
2 days agoE8SE7E8E4E6SE7SE5E3E5E3CalmCalmNE3NE4N5NE3NE7NE6N5NE5E7E7E10SE9

Tide / Current Tables for Gooseneck Point, bridge, New Jersey
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Gooseneck Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:59 AM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:42 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:27 PM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:57 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
2.62.82.62.21.610.50.20.10.51.21.82.32.52.52.31.81.30.80.50.40.61.21.8

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current (2)
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
The Narrows
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:57 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:12 AM EDT     -1.99 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:51 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:13 AM EDT     1.53 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:20 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:31 PM EDT     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:32 PM EDT     1.51 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.9-0-1-1.7-2-1.8-1.2-0.60.11.11.51.41.10.3-0.6-1.4-1.8-1.8-1.3-0.7-0.10.81.41.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (17,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.