Sunday, September27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Monmouth Beach, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:45PM Sunday September 27, 2020 3:34 AM EDT (07:34 UTC) Moonrise 5:12PMMoonset 2:20AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 101 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Rest of tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Patchy drizzle early in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Mon..S winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. Showers likely.
Wed..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 101 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. The remnants of beta will cross of the mid atlantic coast today. A trough of low pressure is expected to approach our region Sunday night into Monday. A cold front is expected to arrive in our region Tuesday night into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monmouth Beach , NJ
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Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 262329 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 729 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. The remnants of Beta will cross of the Mid Atlantic coast today. A trough of low pressure is expected to approach our region Sunday night into Monday. A cold front is expected to arrive in our region Tuesday night into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Going through tonight and the overnight, the weak surface trough associated with the remnants of Beta will sit offshore south of the region with broad high pressure farther to the east over the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, low pressure will advance north and east through the Great Lakes into Ontario. This will keep the moist southerly flow in place. Any breaks in the clouds will fill back in with a lowering stratus deck setting up. The challenge will be just how saturated the region will be in the very lowest levels, and this will determine if this remains more of a low stratus setup vs. fog. Think that at least some patchy fog will be around with the best chances for more widespread fog being over eastern PA from Berks County north into the Lehigh Valley. There may also be some patchy drizzle and/or very light showers around too. So all in all, a damp night and this will keep lows mainly in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/. For Sunday, conditions start out cloudy and damp with some fog and drizzle persisting. There should be enough mixing though for any fog to lift to just stratus by mid to late morning. Challenge then becomes how much of this breaks up heading into the afternoon. The overall pattern will feature little change with the moist southerly flow persisting but still think based on forecast soundings there should be at least some sunny breaks in the afternoon if not partial clearing. This should allow for highs reaching into the mid to upper 70s along with dew points in the mid to upper 60s so it will be humid. Still can't rule out a few spotty showers around especially late day as some impulses aloft start to move through.

For Sunday night, a stronger shortwave looks to move through aloft in the southerly flow ahead of the deepening trough over the central CONUS. This will tap into the abundant moisture along and just off the east coast so there will be a better chance for some scattered showers and mostly cloudy skies as the stratus deck fills in again. It will be another night on the milder side with lows mostly in the 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The primary weather story in the long term continues to be a cold front that is forecast to cross the region during the middle of next week. Global ensembles depict a seasonable strong trough axis slowly heading east Wednesday into Thursday. Above normal temperatures for the first part of the long term will transition to near normal temperatures for the second half of next week.

Monday the long term will open up with impressive mid-level ridging across the western United States and an equally impressive mid-level trough over the eastern United States. This trough axis will be centered across the central United States, at least initially Monday, with a weak shortwave, that is currently over the TX/ LA border, ejecting northeast over the region. The weak DCVA will be accompanied by ~ 30 m height falls and is progged to exit the region Monday afternoon. This means the highest chances of precipitation will likely be Monday morning with a slow decrease in the chance of precipitation through the afternoon hours. High temperatures Monday will be around 80 degrees, or above normal for this time of year.

This break in showers Monday evening into Tuesday morning will be transient though as a potent shortwave dives south out of Canada and across MN. This potent shortwave will drive the long wave trough axis south and east allowing a surface cold front to approach central PA Tuesday morning. The main question is what happens next. Both the GFS and NAM have some weak wave breaking occurring, and this appears likely given the strength of the wave. The ECMWF is slightly stronger with the wave and therefore removes the wave further south, while the GFS keep the wave more in alignment with the primary long wave trough axis. This slight difference allows the GFS to be about a day quicker with the accompanying surface low and cold front than the ECMWF. The CMC appears to be a nice compromise here. So what does this mean for our area? Well, the chance of showers and even some thunderstorms will quickly increase Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning as the mid-level wave rounds the base of the long wave trough axis. Strong DCVA and associated mid-level height falls (~150 m) will accompany this wave with the CWA being close to a RRQ of a ~160 kt upper level jet streak. The forcing here looks impressive and not surprisingly the mass fields in the global models responding accordingly. Given the forcing mentioned above, I have kept high end likely PoPs for Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will be the best rainfall many areas have seen in two weeks or so. It should be noted that shear values are very impressive with this system, but as of current instability looks extremely weak.

Wednesday evening, the surface low will be exiting the region, finally allowing the surface cold front to clear the coast. Behind the cold front the chance of precipitation will slowly come to an end as PWATs crash to around 0.75". Another perturbation that is embedded in the long wave trough axis will cross the region Thursday night into Friday bringing a slight chance of rain to the region. The region will then dry out Saturday as the impulse exits the east coast of the United States. Expect temperatures near or slightly below normal for Friday into Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Conditions deteriorate with MVFR dropping to IFR by the overnight period for most sites, with LIFR developing late. CIGs should be mainly in the 300 to 800 foot range with VSBYs of 1 to 2 miles or less by the predawn hours. Winds light and variable. Moderate confidence overall but lower confidence on exact timing of flight category changes.

Sunday . IFR/LIFR in the early morning improving to MVFR by around midday for most sites with VFR possible by later in the afternoon. Winds generally east/southeast 5 to 8 knots or less. Moderate confidence overall but lower confidence on exact timing of flight category changes and also as to whether there is improvement to VFR in the afternoon.

Sunday night . Mainly MVFR in the evening with IFR likely again by the overnight due to low stratus and fog/mist. Winds light and variable. Moderate confidence.

Outlook . Monday . Showers will be possible early Monday morning with some restrictions to MVFR possible. Celings will then rise to VFR Monday afternoon. South winds 5 to 10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday and Wednesday . A cold front will approach the area from the west Tuesday with southerly winds increasing from 10 to 15 kts. Transient IFR conditions will be possible if heavier rain develops. Surface low pressure will then head northeast along and near Interstate 95 Wednesday with a surface cold front crossing the zones later. Behind the cold front winds will turn from the west/northwest 10 to 15 kt. Low confidence.

Thursday . VFR conditions expected with southwest winds around 10 kts and gusts up to 20 kts. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Winds and seas are expected to stay below Small Craft advisory criteria through Sunday night. Winds will be mainly southeast tonight becoming east towards morning at around 10 knots or so. These winds persist through Sunday varying to NE and SE at times. Southeast winds Sunday evening becoming southwest overnight around 10 to 15 knots.

Seas will be mainly around 2 to 3 feet for tonight increasing to up to 4 feet by later Sunday into Sunday night. Wave heights will generally be 1 to 3 feet on the Delaware Bay through this period.

Outlook . Monday and Tuesday . Winds and seas will slowly build Monday into Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. Conditions should remain just below SCA criteria.

Tuesday night through Thursday . Seas and southerly flow will continue to increase Tuesday night and approach SCA conditions. A surface cold front will then cross the waters Wednesday evening with southerly flow turning from the west/ southwest. Winds and seas will remain near or just above SCA criteria through Thursday.

Rip Currents .

There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents through Sunday. Winds will mostly be out of the southeast around 10 mph. A long period, 10 to 11 second easterly swell today will diminish to around 7 seconds on Sunday. Breaking waves will be 2 feet or less.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Haines Near Term . Fitzsimmons/MPS Short Term . Fitzsimmons Long Term . Haines Aviation . Fitzsimmons/Haines/MPS Marine . Fitzsimmons/Haines


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 9 mi47 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 67°F 1016.3 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 16 mi35 min ESE 5.8 G 5.8 68°F1014.9 hPa (-1.6)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 23 mi47 min 68°F 69°F1016 hPa
MHRN6 23 mi47 min SE 1.9 G 4.1
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 23 mi47 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 68°F 1015.7 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 26 mi47 min 68°F 69°F1016 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 35 mi47 min Calm G 0 67°F 1016.6 hPa
44091 40 mi39 min 70°F4 ft
44022 - Execution Rocks 41 mi65 min ESE 1.9 G 1.9 68°F 68°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi53 min Calm G 0 65°F 66°F1016.1 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 45 mi35 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 67°F1015 hPa (-1.5)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 49 mi59 min E 2.9 G 4.1 66°F 68°F1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi39 minN 05.00 miPartly Cloudy with Haze64°F0°F%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmE3NE3NE5E7E7E7E10E10E9E5SE6E8SE5SE3SE4E3E3CalmE3E4E3Calm
1 day agoS5S3S3S5SW5CalmNW4CalmS34S4SE45SE7SE7CalmCalmS3SW4S3S4CalmS3S3
2 days agoNW4CalmNW4W3CalmNW3NW3CalmSW5SW4S4SW5CalmS4S3S3SW3SW4S4SW6SW4SW5W3W3

Tide / Current Tables for Gooseneck Point, bridge, New Jersey
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Gooseneck Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:01 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:34 AM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:12 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:56 PM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.40.20.40.91.522.42.42.21.91.510.60.40.511.62.22.72.82.72.31.8

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current (2)
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:43 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:42 AM EDT     1.35 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:21 AM EDT     -1.79 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:52 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:03 PM EDT     1.68 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:55 PM EDT     -1.96 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-0.80.311.31.30.90.1-0.7-1.3-1.8-1.7-1.4-0.90.11.11.51.71.50.7-0.3-1.1-1.7-2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.