Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Monmouth Beach, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 4:31PM Friday December 6, 2019 1:20 AM EST (06:20 UTC) Moonrise 2:47PMMoonset 2:14AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1158 Pm Est Thu Dec 5 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 am est Friday...
Rest of tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft in the late morning and afternoon. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw in the late evening and overnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Showers.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 1158 Pm Est Thu Dec 5 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure builds across our region tonight, then it slides offshore early Friday. Weak low pressure quickly tracks just to our north on Friday which pulls a cold front across our area. Strong high pressure builds in Saturday before shifting offshore Sunday as a warm front lifts to our north. Low pressure tracks from the southern plains to across the lower great lakes Monday through Tuesday, with a strong cold front sweeping across our area later Tuesday. A secondary cold front may move through Wednesday, then high pressure builds in for Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monmouth Beach , NJ
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location: 40.33, -74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 060541 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1241 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds across our region tonight, then it slides offshore early Friday. Weak low pressure quickly tracks just to our north on Friday which pulls a cold front across our area. Strong high pressure builds in Saturday before shifting offshore Sunday as a warm front lifts to our north. Low pressure tracks from the southern Plains to across the lower Great Lakes Monday through Tuesday, with a strong cold front sweeping across our area later Tuesday. A secondary cold front may move through Wednesday, then high pressure builds in for Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. 1230 am update: Temperatures are beginning to fall now as the cloud cover has begun to lessen across the area. Models have apparently struggled mightily with the lift associated with the passing trough during the past 24 hours and advection of lake- effect clouds and even some light precipitation earlier in northern portions of the CWA. This required some adjustment to hourly temperatures for the rest of the night to accommodate for this slower timing, but still think overnight lows are in the ballpark.

Previous discussion .

No significant changes to the forecast overnight. Temps have been slower to fall that initially forecast as the lake effect streamer clouds have prevented skies from clearing too much. Still a good bet though that temps will fall into the mid to upper 20s by daybreak tomorrow. Enjoy your evening!

Previous discussion . Building H5 heights and sfc high pressure nosing in from the South will bring fair weather to the Middle Atlantic tonight. Clouds will decrease this evening with mostly clr skies expected early tonight. After midnight, some increase in clouds N/W is possible as the next system will begin to make its presence known. No precipitation is expected. Lows tonight will be cooler than previous nights with widespread 20s, except for the more urban areas where lows around freezing are expected. Winds will be mostly West at 5 to 10 mph this evening then less than 5 knots later on.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. While an area of high pressure remains south of the area early, a clipper low will be moving north of the area, across NY state. Clouds and perhaps some light snows may brush across the southern Poconos and north NJ associated with this system. We will keep some small chc pops for these areas attm, but do not expect much to occur. A cold front attached to the low will cross the area late in the afternoon. The SW winds ahead of the front will switch to W behind it and become gusty. Highs Friday will be a little warmer than Thursday with upper 40s/low 50s for the southern areas and mid 30s to mid 40s for the southern Poconos/north NJ and the Lehigh Valley.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Summary . Much colder air arrives to start the weekend, then turning much warmer early next week in advance of showers and a strong cold front. Much colder air then returns for Wednesday and Thursday.

Synoptic Overview . A short wave trough slides across the Northeast and then off the New England coast Saturday morning. The digging trough energy is then forecast to be focused initially across the West and into the Plains over the weekend which then shifts eastward early next week. This allows for significant warming to overtake our region early next week. This warm up however is forecast to come to an end as an amplifying trough drives low pressure to our northwest Tuesday, with a strong cold front sweeping across our area later Tuesday. High pressure then builds in Wednesday night and Thursday.

For Friday night through Sunday . An upper-level trough is forecast to sharpen some as it moves across New England Friday night and then offshore early Saturday. This will take a clipper system off to our northeast with an associated cold front (mostly dry) shifting to our east Friday evening. There could be some sprinkles/flurries early Friday evening. Much drier low-level air and also strengthening cold air advection follows this front through Saturday. High pressure then builds over our area during Saturday before shifting offshore into Sunday. After a cold Saturday into Sunday morning, a developing return flow on the west side of the departing high will increase the warm air advection some. In addition, a warm front lifts to our north during Sunday and therefore Sunday afternoon will be milder compared to Saturday. The leading edge of a surge in precipitable water of around an inch arrives from the south toward daybreak Monday with showers possible arriving then.

For Monday and Tuesday . An upper-level trough is forecast to strengthen across the mid-Mississippi Valley Monday then track northeastward across the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday. Meanwhile, strong surface high pressure will be centered in the western Atlantic. These two combined will assist to enhance the warm air advection across the East ahead of a strong cold front. This is anticipated to result in much warmer air surging across the area until a strong cold front arrives later Tuesday. While this will boost temperatures well into the 50's, with even some lower 60's across portions of the coastal plain, increasing shower activity may hinder the overall warming to some extent. A surge in showers/rain still looks to occur during Monday within the warm sector regime and a lead short wave, and this may arrive in our southern areas early Monday morning as a surge in the precipitable water to around an inch arrives. A second round of showers/rain then on Tuesday as the strong cold front arrives, and even a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. Some of the rain could be heavier given precipitable water values in the 1.00 to 1.50 range. Showers should rapidly end behind the front, then much colder air starts to surge into the area Tuesday night as strong cold air advection sets up.

For Wednesday and Thursday . A strong eastern Canada upper-level trough also slides across the Northeast. This will result in strong cold air advection in the wake of the Tuesday cold front. This may be reinforced by a secondary cold front on Wednesday before high pressure builds in on Thursday. This translates to a return of colder temperatures along with a gusty northwesterly breeze, with the winds diminishing Wednesday night and especially Thursday. There should be some lake effect snow off the Great Lakes, however at this point in time given the forecast trajectory it should remain north and west of our region.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight . VFR with a period of mostly clear conditions through 09z or so before an increase in mid/high cloudiness late. Winds light west or southwest. High confidence.

Friday . Mainly VFR with a lengthy period of CIGs around 5000 feet. Cannot rule out a passing shower during the day, but any impacts would be minimal. Winds west or southwest around 10 kt with perhaps a few gusts to 20 kt or so. Moderate confidence.

Friday night . VFR with any CIGs rapidly dissipating overnight. Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt, perhaps a little stronger in the evening. High confidence.

OUTLOOK . Saturday and Sunday . VFR. Northwest winds 5-10 knots becoming light and variable Saturday night, then southerly 5-10 knots Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday . Sub-VFR conditions probable as showers/periods of rain move across the region. South-southwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots, becoming west and northwest later Tuesday. Low confidence on timing and extent of sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE. We have extended the small craft advisory for the Atlantic waters through 3 am, as winds remain well above advisory criteria (especially off the New Jersey coast). We have even seen a couple gusts reaching gale criteria late this evening. Think models are a little too fast to diminish winds overnight, likely a result of the slower-than-expected timing of the associated midlevel system moving through the region.

There should be a lull in winds during the early/mid morning hours Friday before the next round of advisory-level conditions occurs by afternoon, continuing through the overnight hours. Once the current small craft advisory is ended, will be issuing another one for the Atlantic waters as well as at least lower Delaware Bay as southwest winds increase in advance of a cold front, switching to northwest after the front moves through during the evening.

OUTLOOK . Friday night and Saturday . Northwesterly wind gusts to around 25 knots are expected to diminish during Friday night and especially Saturday as high pressure builds in.

Sunday . The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria, however a wind shift to more southerly will take place.

Monday and Tuesday . Southwesterly winds should gust to Small Craft Advisory criteria before shifting to the west and northwest later Tuesday as a strong cold front sweeps through. The magnitude of the wind is less certain given a warm air advection regime, and the amount of wind increase will also affect the wave heights.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST early this morning for ANZ450>455.

Synopsis . Gorse Near Term . CMS/Deal/O'Hara Short Term . O'Hara Long Term . Gorse Aviation . CMS/Gorse Marine . CMS/Gorse


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 9 mi50 min NW 14 G 21 37°F 42°F1020.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 16 mi30 min NW 25 G 31 39°F 49°F4 ft1019.6 hPa26°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 23 mi50 min 37°F 44°F1020.1 hPa
MHRN6 23 mi50 min WNW 12 G 17
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 23 mi50 min NW 17 G 24 37°F 1019.5 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 26 mi50 min 37°F 44°F1019.7 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 35 mi50 min N 17 G 20 37°F 43°F1019.8 hPa
44091 40 mi50 min 52°F4 ft
44022 - Execution Rocks 41 mi50 min WNW 14 G 21 38°F 32°F25°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi50 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 38°F 39°F1020.8 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 45 mi30 min WNW 21 G 31 40°F 52°F6 ft1018.9 hPa (+1.9)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 49 mi80 min WNW 18 G 25 38°F 1 ft24°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 49 mi44 min WNW 5.1 G 8.9 39°F 39°F1020.2 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi24 minN 010.00 miFair34°F21°F59%1020.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Gooseneck Point, bridge, New Jersey
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Gooseneck Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:14 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:27 AM EST     2.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:16 PM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:41 PM EST     2.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.61.11.622.22.221.61.310.70.50.611.51.92.22.221.61.20.80.5

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current (2)
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:14 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:09 AM EST     1.32 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:15 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:31 AM EST     -1.58 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:07 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:25 PM EST     1.18 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:25 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:47 PM EST     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.31.11.31.30.90.2-0.5-1.1-1.5-1.5-1.2-0.9-0.10.81.21.210.4-0.5-1.1-1.6-1.7-1.4-1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.