Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 12:41 AM   Moonset 9:25 AM

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LEZ144 Expires:202404290215;;539727 Fzus51 Kcle 281933 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 333 pm edt Sun apr 28 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-290215- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 333 pm edt Sun apr 28 2024
Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy this evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday night - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 55 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees, and off erie 50 degrees.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KILN 290606 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 206 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
Southerly flow will keep temperatures well above normal through tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms will start to move into the area Monday afternoon and continue into Monday night as a cold front crosses the area. High pressure will build in for midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Some thin cirrus will be possible at times tonight but skies will remain mostly clear. Temperatures will remain mild with overnight lows in the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
Showers and thunderstorms will develop on Monday afternoon along a pre-frontal trough. There is some uncertainty how quickly this activity will move into the forecast area, but it will affect western counties before the day is through. Along with this timing uncertainty, there is some question about how unstable it will be. It seems likely that CAPE will be below 1000 J/kg but whether it is close to that number or only a few hundreds will determine whether there will be any strong storms since better bulk shear will be spreading over the unstable area. Wind would be the primary concern. Confidence at this stage is rather low but will keep an eye on it.

Instability will wane in the evening, so the potential for any stronger storms will end. But an axis of showers and thunderstorms will progress east through Monday night. There could be a secondary axis along the actual cold front that moves in late.

Temperatures will be back in the lower to mid 80s in most places, although clouds may thicken early enough to keep readings in the upper 70s west of I-75. Lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Guidance has slowed a bit with the exit of the shortwave trough.
Consensus now has the trough axis lingering Tuesday morning, and not clearing our eastern counties until near midday. Still, we will likely see a decrease in cloud cover heading into the afternoon with high temperatures reaching into the low to mid 70s by 4-5 PM.

Westerly to northwesterly winds will briefly visit the Ohio Valley behind the front Tuesday afternoon into the early evening... then flow becomes southerly again for Wednesday as warmer than normal temperatures return. Mid-level heights increase Wednesday as well, with ridging becoming more amplified on Thursday ahead of the next digging mid-level trough over the Central Plains. Though humidity will not be particularly high on Thursday, temperatures may reach into the upper 80s based on the NBM mean. Have blended this direction since the NBM's calibrated high puts us below the 25th percentile of the blend's members.

Precipitation chances will increase Friday with the arrival of the next frontal system. How quickly this system clears the region is uncertain based on the latest guidance. For this reason, have lingered PoPs through the weekend to some degree. Showers will not be occurring the entire period of course... but there could be a reinforcing trough pass through the Great Lakes sometime late in the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Southerly flow increases ahead of an approaching cold front today. This will lead to an increase in mid and high level clouds this morning and VFR clouds of 5000-6000 feet this afternoon.

A chance of showers and embedded thunderstorms will develop from the west late this afternoon into this evening overspreading the TAF sites. Ceilings will lower with MVFR ceilings developing after 06Z.

Southerly winds will gust in to the 20 to 25 knot range this afternoon and then shift to the northwest around 10 kts late tonight with the passage of a cold front.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible into Tuesday morning.
MVFR to IFR ceilings possible late tonight into Tuesday morning with MVFR ceilings possibly lingering into Tuesday afternoon.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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Wilmington, OH,